Tommy John and 'Value'

[DOUGHBOYS]

During a 50 round draft, I talked with Mark Srebro about the drafting of great arms that had Tommy John or some other affliction heading into this year. There was Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke, Daniel Hudson, and Colby Lewis that headed the list.
He argued that Adam Wainwright had a great year after coming back from Tommy John previously, and was snatching up Beachy and others in many drafts.
I reminded him that Wainwright was slow in coming back and that it took time to get back to the 'rea'l Adam Wainwright.
Of those four pitchers, it looks like Beachy will be the only one to pitch in a game this year. The other three are wasted picks.
Claimed 'value', no realized 'value'.
Beachy could be a two month bonanza for his drafters, but I'm doubting it and feel that he'll be like Wainwright in feeling his way back to being the Beachy of old.
Still, there is hope.
He could be a better 'real' pitcher for the Braves in the pennant race than fantasy pitcher for his owners. In that his best starts may be as he goes farther along, which means in the playoffs for the Braves.

I've learned just to stay away from the maladied pitchers. It may look cool in thinking that pitchers like Beachy, Hudson, Luebke, and Lewis can propel your teams to glory in later months, but most likely, they won't.

Next year, Dylan Bundy will be among the Tommy Johners. He hasn't earned his bones at the Major League level yet, so I don't see him being drafted till the 40's in drafts.
Jason Motte is a little tougher. He was closing on a very good team and had his surgery early in the year. Relievers are reputed to come back earlier from Tommy John, but then I think about Brian Wilson and think that is probably bunk.
Jason Marquis was a 30's pick before Tommy John, he'll be left off of draft lists completely next year, especially since his TJ was so late in the season this year.

Beachy, Luebke, Hudson, and Lewis (I know Lewis did not have TJ) will all carry baggage even in 2014 drafts. Some pitchers seem to flourish after Tommy John.
Some don't.
Fantasy owners will penalize these pitchers a bit for missing a full season and part of another.
No injury goes unpunished in the fantasy world.
It'll be interesting to keep an eye on these pitchers to see where they are drafted in early drafts during the coming year. In Lewis case, he may be with a new team, changing his landscape completely.
No matter where all four are picked in a coming draft, it is a virtual certainty that their owners will claim 'value'. It's the nature of our beast.
But then again, like Srebro and others this year, they also thought they were getting 'value' in picking these four.
And the same may happen for Motte and Bundy owners next year.
Tommy John owners are value seekers. They know the risks.
They also have come to know that claiming 'value' and realizing 'value' are two separate entities.