Medical, Pedical, and Numerical, Oh My!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Being in the Pre-Mature E-Draftulation League, I have been working on lists for this draft. The draft kicks off as the last pitch is thrown for this season.
One of the dark holes for this league is an off season injury. So, I'd like to take this time to thank the Baseball Gods for Matt Harvey's announcement of possible Tommy John surgery now.
Folks will say they saw signs, or that the Mets handled him wrong, or that his innings load was too much.
BULL.
TJ is just that part of the arm saying I've had too much. Some guys like Justin Verlander can seemingly throw forever, as hard as he wants. In this day and time. He is in the minority.
We live in an age where blame has to be attached for every development. There is nobody to blame for Harvey's bad news.
Dr. Andrews, The prominent TJ doctor says there is nothing that can prevent the injury.
Precautions can be made. And Harvey made them.
Pitches can be limited.
Innings can be limited.
It all doesn't matter because the arm is not supposed to be used that way.

This is just my opinion, but I do think most teams and trainers treat pitchers in a way that does invite this injury. Their goal is to limit the arm motions, like saving an engine on a car. They do this by counting pitches (why pickoff moves and warm-ups are not counted, I'll never know).
But like an engine on a car, stop and starting the engine causes more harm than using the engine over a long period.
It goes back to the Braves throwing their pitchers everyday and Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz escaped the TJ knife. Keeping these pitchers throwing, or to use the car analogy, keeping them well-oiled seems like a better choice to me.

But anyway, enough of my opinions on something I know little about.
I don't know if other folks had him this high for next year, but I had Harvey as my second highest ranked pitcher going into the Pre-Mature.
It doesn't get much better than a hard throwing, strike out making, big park resident, National League pitcher. The only thing missing for Harvey was a decent offense to score runs for him.....well ok, that and a decent bullpen to protect his leads.
Harvey impressed me more than any young pitcher has for a long time. He wanted the ball. He couldn't wait to face the tough hitters. It showed in his body language. Early in the season, he was visibly pissed off for giving up a hard hit ball.
I want a guy like that on my team.

For 2014, Harvey now becomes an afterthought. Another pitcher not to be drafted.
It's too bad. Fans lose. The Mets lose. And so does baseball in general.
A friend of mine told me that this really makes Jose Fernandez the best young pitcher going into next year.
He may be right.
But at the same time, he also has the distinction of being the best possible candidate for Tommy John surgery.
We don't want it to happen. But, the possibility will weigh on every drafters mind.
And it's a little funny that Fernandez resume reads just like Harvey.
A hard throwing, strike out making, big park resident, National League pitcher. The only thing missing for Fernandez is a decent offense to score runs for him.....well ok, that and a decent bullpen to protect his leads.

Tommy John candidates, for drafters, are a little like PEDS. We have suspicions of what may lie ahead, but none of us really know.
We can drop Chris Davis on our draft lists for fear of PEDS. We can drop Fernandez for fear of TJ.
But, they would only both be dropped because of self-opinion. Not fact.
Truth is, we're mostly numbers people who like dealing with facts.
Opinion can be primary or secondary, depending in how much stock each drafter puts in their Numerish.
But, more and more, these facts are being trumped by what players put in their bodies and what doctors are taking out.