If I Want a Projectionist, I'll go to a Theatre

[DOUGHBOYS]

I have a couple of writer friends who are knee-deep in projections. As you know, projections are three things-
One part thought process
Two parts player history
Three parts of statistical blah blah blah.

Some folks will take the first part out of the equation, and let a computer crunch numbers. I've never understood the basis for that. We're playing a game with a human element. Numbers alone, will not tell me that Mike Trout 'gets it'. Just as those numbers won't tell me that Yasiel Puig plays baseball as if completely bored one inning and taking an acid trip the next.
In my own mind, I can't see Puig playing a full MLB year. Yet, most projections will have him playing a full year or most of a full year.
Projectionists, at least most of them, seem to project health as bad luck.
It isn't.
Puig plays like he's SuperMan.
He isn't.
Walls and over-extension are his kryptonite.
Same with Brett Lawrie.
Shortstop kicks Troy Tulowitzki's ass.
He should be a corner guy with his muscular build. But Tulo likes to show off his wonderful arm and has enough pull to tell the Rockies to go to Hell if trying to change his position.
A trade of Tulo would not surprise me at all this year. Then, his assessments takes a tumble since he'll be leaving a hitter's haven for parts unknown.

Some folks take these projections seriously. Some don't even watch much baseball and almost rely solely on numbers.
That's a tough thing to do.
We can learn a lot by watching players reactions.
I saw Jared Weaver and Jon Lester yell at their Managers after finishing eight innings not to take them out of the game.
Stats don't measure bulldogs.

Do you want to take a stab at projecting somebody?
I'll give you a chance. I just took this guy in the 10th round of the Pre-Mature Draft.
Here are his previous numbers:


2008- .290/65/21/77/13

2009- .277/71/15/68/14

2010- .282/83/18/70/13

2011- .269/81/15/70/7

2012- .265/59/9/73/20

2013- .284/68/6/48/30

First glance tells us that this guy has a remote possibility of being a 20/30 guy. After all, he has done both, just in separate years.
For me, his projection is easy, as are most players, if thinking like a 'in the box' guy.
We just use the 'stuck in the middle' method that most writers prefer.
They also lean towards round numbers, so that will be included too.
Any player who has played five years can never be projected to have a career year. That, is an unwritten rule.
Something Jose Bautista took projectionist to the wood shed over.
Sure, it happens like with Bautista, but projectionists will call this an 'anomaly' to protect themselves.
With all this in mind, the projection becomes mind-numbing easy....275/70/10/60/20

I don't 'project' players. I find it tedious, boring, and not worth my time. On the other hand, following somebody elses projections would be harmful to my fantasy health.
Just for this one instance, I'll make a projection to make a point.
I don't believe in 'stuck in the middle' projectioning. It's a safe route that most take.
I picked this guy in the 10th round of the Pre-Mature, so you know I feel better about him than I would a player passed on.

Ok, so here goes...
First, the player is Alexie Ramirez.
I know. Boring, right?
I have no attachment or detachment to Ramirez, meaning he has never helped me or hindered me in winning a league.
I thought a lot of Ramirez this year while playing with a losing team. He played hard the whole season. Never dogged it.
That counts for something that doesn't show up in numbers.
He also was left alone near the top of the lineup. In previous years, he's been moved around the lineup.
He's free to steal . At 32, he hasn't gotten faster, but he does get more opportunities in hitting in the second spot ahead of a couple of pitch taking oafs in Konerko and Dunn. The equalizer being that Konerko and Dunn may not be there next year.

So, with all that in mind, what are my projections?
A .288 batting average. I think that Ramirez has figured out sliders and curves. A bugaboo for him early in his career.
This .288 average would be his highest in six years, something writers never project.

85 Runs, a career high. I don't see both Konerko and Dunn coming back. I'm banking on better average hitters being behind Ramirez this coming year. Be it from within the Sox or a possible trade or free agent signing. Their GM is not known for standing pat.

15 home runs. This is his total over the last TWO YEARS.
I don't care. I saw a lot of balls just go to the left side of the foul pole and get caught against the fences. I'm guessing that Ramirez eats three more Wheaties and his totals go up

Screw rbi.
I have to admit, above all projections, I hate rbi the most. They are a product of opportunity. We do not have a clue how many rbi ops Ramirez will get. And neither do projectionists.
And worse, for a second hitter, most of those rbi will have to be generated from the bottom of the lineup.
I'll take whatever rbi he gets.

22 stolen bases.
I don't expect Ramirez to run as much seeing how I don't expect pitch takers like Konerko and Dunn to be behind him next year. As he ages, he's not getting faster but will still be afforded ops to run. Just not as much...


So, I come up with .288/85/15/-/22.
'Theirs' is a probable .275/70/10/60/20

The numbers here are secondary when it comes to actual drafting. Most drafters will take Starlin Castro before Ramirez.
Castro is younger and has seemingly more potential for greater numbers than Ramirez.
In our Pre-Mature, I passed Castro every round till he was taken by somebody else.
Sure, if Castro decides to play hard, something he didn't do this year, he could have great numbers.
But if he doesn't.....and that's a strong possibility, he can kill a team.
We never take him out of the lineup. We think he'll improve. In the mean time, our numbers go down, down, down.
Shandler says that once a player displays a skill, he owns it.
Well, which skill are we talking about in Castro's case?
The skill of getting 200 hits?
Or the 'skill' of going through the motions of a regular season?

This past season is still fresh in our minds. I make as many notes as I can about players. It keeps me from relying solely on numbers to come up with how high I would draft a player.
In a month from now, BABIP, WAR, and BAA become a lot more important than now.
Perhaps, too 'important'.
We'll fixate on these numbers simply because there is no action on the field. The head of Starlin Castro and the heart of Alexie Ramirez are pushed into the background.
We are a numbers driven hobby, indeed. But, for me, the less I have to rely on those numbers, the better it works for me.

[NorCalAtlFan]

that was a clown pick bro

good analysis Dan. now stop it, I am at my quota agreeing/liking your posts.

go back to bashing votto

[headhunters]

dunn will be back unless he retires- too much $ for someone else. Hahn is the gm not Williams- so he has no reputation... and no- Williams is not calling the shots. as you know- some of that is fact and the rest is just my opinion.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Bryan- I will get back to Votto but covered him ad nauseum during the season. When the books and publications start coming out about his 'stellar' season, I'll be back, and once again you can look forward to disagreeing with my posts

Mike- Dunn sounded like he was serious about retiring and Konerko is giving it thought. I wouldn't be surprised either way with either of them.
I consider the White Sox as a group decision maker with Williams being key. We'll see if that is how it shakes out. Like you, it's just my thought.

I've got to write a post about boring fantasy players. I've taken Nathan, Lester, and Ramirez. It's like having a pick of 100 flavors and ordering vanilla.....

[Likewhat17]

I go through the process of doing projections for over 1000 players every offseason. Much to your delight though Dan, I don't project everyone in the middle, a simple rolling average, or nice round numbers across the board. I project players to do what I think they are going to do the next year. Based on the numbers laid out in front of me, my own obsevations throughout the season and my own personal feelings and intuition.

These projections will be a work in progress over the entire offseason, as I adjust based on any news or information that comes out that may impact any particular player.

The reason for doing these projections though, is that over the years I've developed a ranking system that will take the projections that I input, and give me a ready-made draft board without having to do it entirely from scratch. It helps me not to overlook players that I may have any type of personal bias against.

I don't robotically follow the numbers laid out in front of me, or always do what that board says that I should do in a particular round, but I do believe that it is a fantastic jumping off point as we head into the slow draft season.

And as the person who did draft Starlin Castro in the Premature, here's to hoping that the new manager can figure out how to motivate the talented youngster

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'll bet that you are stuck in the middle, Dave. It's human nature at its best. Give me your projections for Ramirez and Castro.
Dollars to donuts that those numbers are somewhere between the best numbers and worst numbers of their best and worst years.
It's not your fault. Heck, I don't even know if it is a fault. Too many times though, we become 'used' to these projected numbers.
It's nobody's fault that Chris Johnson hit for a lucky average last year. That kind of stuff happens. What I find galling about Johnson is that baseball fans think he had a great year. He didn't. He merely hit for a higher average. His rbi and his home run totals, things the Braves and fantasy owners were looking for, were almost non-existent.
And it's nobody's fault that Alfonso Soriano caught fire once traded to the Yankees. Those that drafted him never thought that they would receive such a benefit.
These kind of things are impossible to project.

I told dozens of friends that I thought BJ Upton would flop with Braves. I even had a bet with one that Adam Dunn would have a higher batting average than Upton at the end of the year. In a way, that is projecting. But me, telling friends, and writers making projections for others to see are two different things.
There is more shame in a writer being wrong. So, they will naturally be more conservative. It's human nature.

Jay Bruce will hit between 45-50 home runs next year. That is my thought.
And nowhere will I see a writer agree with me. I expect that. Even if they happen to agree with me.
Look at your projections, Dave.
How many players have you projected, who has played seven years or more, whom you predict will have career highs in homers or some other category?
I'm betting few.
It happens, but it is hardly ever projected.
As humans, we are slaves to trends.
Younger players who start out well, are Sistene Chapels. We like to view their ceilings while almost ignoring their floors.
Established players have floors and ceilings that are visible to all. Most projections will be between those two boundaries.
But that's just it, they're not boundaries.

'Updating' projections because of news is admirable. But, it's not really needed.
Yesterday, in my estimation, Billy Hamilton was helped in probably getting more stolen bases. Dusty Baker was fired.
Baker would have been hesitant in starting Hamilton while other Managers have less of a problem with that.
So, do we project 65 stolen bases instead of the 60 original stolen bases. 45 instead of 40?
In my mind, the number isn't there yet. I just know that Hamilton will get a nudge up scales. Certain numbers need not be quantified.
In giving him five extra stolen bases by projectionists or me giving him a nudge up my mental scale may both be an error.
Hamilton's floor is being ignored. He may not be able to hit major league pitching, and these updates become useless.
Bill James Handbook, every year, ignores young players floors. I look forward to how many stolen bases they project for Hamilton. I'm guessing 80.
For a first time reader, this projection will be scoffed at. For a long time reader like myself, it'll show consistency and make me smile.

I know it seems I criticize projectionists a little much. I probably do.
Really, if only looking at them in publications or sites, I find them entertaining. But they are just that. Entertainment, not knowledge.
They are somebody elses thoughts....watered down a little bit.

As far as Castro, how can he be projected. You, yourself are hoping that a Manager can turn him around. Are your projections with that hope fulfilled or not?
Do you go full bore with a Manager that does actually turn him around?
Or do you fall back to last year's doldrums?
My guess is that you're stuck in the middle, and since picking him, you are leaning a little towards his past, not last year.
It's just human nature.

I love your writing, Dave.
And the chance to disagree on projections validity. Both of us are neither right or wrong.
And neither of us will change.
And that, is a good thing.

[Likewhat17]

Dan, you are correct that for many players (especially seasoned veterans) and particular statistics, that what I project does fall within the upper and lower bounds of their career numbers. That isn't necessarily based on me being conservative though, it's simply what I expect the player to do.

More so than most prognosticators who publish their work, I do take chances and go out on limbs based on what I expect players to do. Anyone can do a simple rolling average and give a nice little range for each player, but I don't see any value in that. I put so much time and energy into this, that it would be foolish to take such a simple-minded approach, and I also trust my personal evaluations.

To humor you though, here is what I have projected for Castro and Alexi Ramirez so far this year. These are just from my initial projections and will most likely change once I get more in depth into my research.

Starlin Castro - .281/84/12/73/16

Alexei Ramirez - .286/76/8/63/24

The more interesting comparison though, would come from my final projections for last season. So if there are a handful of players you'd like to see, let me know.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Dave,
Bruce will hit between 45-50 homers
Braun will hit under .250

These two things are things I think will happen next year.
Bruce has never hit more than 34 homers in his career.
Braun has never hit lower than .285
I have my reasons for these two things happening.
I will NEVER see a publication forecast 10 more homers over a career high or 35 points below a career low in batting average.
It wouldn't be good business, even if feeling that way.

Hardly ever do I see veterans like Braun or Bruce have projections that go under a career low or over a career high at all.
For those that publish their projections, the career highs and lows become boundaries.
I know you don't think they do, but they do. It is very hard to find any projection that doesn't.
You stated that you felt that your numbers mostly fall within these parameters because that is what you EXPECT a player to do.
Of course this is true. Those expectations are driven by the players previous highs and lows.

Alfonso Soriano projections will soar this year. Last year, projectionists used his age as a reason for lower numbers. A year older, they'll ignore that and project higher numbers than last year for Soriano.
It's just part of human nature.
Fantasy folks are LIFO accountants, not FIFO.

Do you publish your projections, or are they for your own personal use?

[Likewhat17]

They are for my own use first and foremost, but have also been published, though in some instances without my name attached until the end of draft season.

I get what you're saying with the Bruce and Braun numbers, and I have several players that I feel similarly about.

Granted it's much easier with young players, but I had Greg Holland as my fourth ranked closer heading into this season, projecting him for a monstrous 4 W / 2.65 ERA / 1.08 WHIP / 38 SV / 95 K

I had Josh Hamilton playing roughly a full season, but posting almost career worst numbers across the board .273/74/23/80/4

I caught some flack for having Goldschmidt ranked in my top 15 overall before the season began, projecting .293/83/33/99/13

Just a couple of examples, that obviously worked out well, but those were pretty far against the grain to start the season.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I actually respect that you do all the projections for yourself. I know a few people that do that as their main studying tool.
The work that goes into those projections are as valuable as the projections themselves.
And without publication, you do have more of a free hand to REALLY project.