Where Did The Value Come From In 2012?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Each year we know that many of our first-round picks won't produce first-round results and won't even be first-round picks the next year. It happens every year in baseball and there is definitely more turnover each year in baseball than you see each year in fantasy football and fantasy basketball.

That being said, last year's first round may have been even more disappointing than previous years. Basically you had five players providing first round results:

Miguel Cabrera (NFBC ADP of 1)
Mike Trout (ADP of 2)
Robinson Cano (ADP of 4)
Andrew McCutchen (ADP of 6)
Clayton Kershaw (ADP of 15)

That's it. You could make a case that Carlos Gonzalez (ADP of 9) put up first round value before getting hurt and the same could be said of Troy Tulowitzki (ADP of 11) if he had stayed healthy all year long. But the rest of these guys failed to produce first-round worthy numbers:

Ryan Braun (3)
Matt Kemp (5)
Joey Votto (7)
Albert Pujols (8)
Prince Fielder (10)
Giancarlo Stanton (12)
Justin Verlander (13)
Stephen Strasburg (14)

That being said, a majority of last year's first-rounders likely will be picked in the first round this year. They include:

Miguel Cabrera
Mike Trout
Robinson Cano
Clayton Kershaw
Andrew McCutchen
Joey Votto
Carlos Gonzalez
Troy Tulowitzki or possibly Giancarlo Stanton
And maybe even Bryce Harper, who was a Top 15 pick at the end of last season

Next year we will definitely have ADP lists that will break down data among last 7 days, 14 days, 21 days, etc., so we'll have more intricate data next year. But looking at our final NFBC ADPs, here were some of the best bargains of 2012:

Chris Davis (ADP of 119)
Jose Fernandez (ADP of 600)
Matt Harvey (ADP of 132)
Bartolo Colon (ADP of 513)
Jean Segura (ADP of 228)
Carlos Gomez (ADP of 104)
Josh Donaldson (ADP of 394)
Alfonso Soriano (ADP of 215)
David Ortiz (ADP of 202)
Matt Carpenter (ADP of 262)
Paul Goldschmidt (ADP of 41)
Jayson Werth (ADP of 180)
Starling Marte (ADP of 203)
Hisashi Iwakuma (ADP of 265)
Daniel Murphy (ADP of 275)
Anibal Sanchez (ADP of 178)
Donomic Brown (ADP of 288)

What do you expect to see from the first round this year? I know we have some draft results on the site already, but let's see your Top 15 predictions.

Also, who else was a bargain play last year who helped you cash in 2013? Let's see some good draft stories from 2013.

And is there anyone out there who could rise in draft status this year the way Bryce Harper did last year? Let's see your nominations. Let's start the talk for 2014. Wow, the next season is close at hand. Amazing.

[Top Dawg]

Even though he missed the middle of the season, Clay Buchholz helped my online team win a Championship this year. I got him in round 18 of the 12 teamer. Another pitcher I bid on (sadly he was my 2nd choice and I got my first) was Masterson.

[CASS]

Patrick Corbin should be very high on that list...

[sek729]

From that bargain list, I had both Murphy and Marte and they definently were a huge part of my win.

Other key moments in my draft:

Had the swing pick at 15/16. I wanted a second baseman and took Pedroia at 16 when everyone had Kinsler higher. Pedroia ended up 5th among 2Bs, Kinsler 7th. For my 0.5 point win, these little battles were definently huge.

Jonathan Lucroy with the last pick of the 9th round was another big winner.

[BK METS]

Bargain guys from my draft, that helped me:

Low draft picks: Pedro Alvarez, Alfonso Soriano, Brandon Moss, Ervin Santana, Bronson Arroyo
FAAB pickups: Jose Fernandez, Brian Dozier, Tanner Roark, Tyler Thornburg, Henderson Alvarez, Matt Dominguez, Omar Infante

My top 15 for 2014:

Trout
Miggy
McCutchen
C Davis
Goldschmidt
Braun
Cano
Cargo
Hanley
Harper
Votto
Kershaw
A Jones
Ellsbury
Tulo

[Rog]

I had a lot of help from my mid to late picks

11 2 Carlos Beltran RF Voice of Reason
12 14 Ichiro Suzuki RF Voice of Reason
13 2 J.P. Arencibia C Voice of Reason
14 14 A.J. Burnett SP Voice of Reason
15 2 Michael Saunders CF Voice of Reason
16 14 Domonic Brown LF Voice of Reason
17 2 Hisashi Iwakuma SP Voice of Reason
18 14 Matt Carpenter 2B Voice of Reason
19 2 Chris Carter LF Voice of Reason
20 14 Omar Infante 2B Voice of Reason

[mrogovin99]

These picks worked out fairly well for me in one of my show draft leagues:

9 11 Chase Utley 2B Gas-House Gorillas
11 11 Mariano Rivera MR Gas-House Gorillas
15 11 Glen Perkins MR Gas-House Gorillas
17 11 Jean Segura SS Gas-House Gorillas
19 11 Shelby Miller SP Gas-House Gorillas
22 5 Chris Archer SP Gas-House Gorillas
23 11 Jedd Gyorko 2B Gas-House Gorillas
27 11 Raul Ibanez LF Gas-House Gorillas
29 11 Avisail Garcia CF Gas-House Gorillas
30 5 Nick Franklin 2B Gas-House Gorillas
31 11 Vernon Wells LF Gas-House Gorillas
33 11 John Buck C Gas-House Gorillas (hot start helped)
40 5 Jose Quintana SP Gas-House Gorillas
41 11 Jose Fernandez SP Gas-House Gorillas
42 5 Jose Veras MR Gas-House Gorillas

[mrogovin99]

Hit on these in a different slow draft:

10 11 Jon Lester SP Hit Parade
16 11 Michael Saunders CF Hit Parade
17 5 Bobby Parnell MR Hit Parade
19 5 A.J. Griffin SP Hit Parade
20 11 Matt Carpenter 2B Hit Parade
21 5 Michael Brantley LF Hit Parade
23 5 Hisashi Iwakuma SP Hit Parade
27 5 Nick Hundley C Hit Parade
28 11 Patrick Corbin SP Hit Parade
41 5 Avisail Garcia CF Hit Parade
42 11 Jim Henderson MR Hit Parade

[King of Queens]

Where Did The Value Come From In 2013?

Fixed!

Good stuff in here. Already looking forward to NEXT YEAR'S values.