Al Capone and Fantasy Baseball

[DOUGHBOYS]

A 'Yahoo Kid' type of fantasy player asked me for my best fantasy baseball advice for the off season. He was prepared to ramp up his game for next year. He has been playing free games for the last three years and is going to back his fantasy picks with money this year.
I told him the first thing you do is to have confidence in YOUR picks. Don't fall for buzz words like VALUE or SLEEPER or any of the crap that he will be deluged with over the next six months.
I told him the story of Ryan Braun last year. How in drafts with money on the line, he had fallen from first overall to second, third, fourth, wherever. How he free falled in pay drafts, while those 'experts' or folks with absolutely no money on the line poo-poo'ed these drafters for making Braun a VALUE pick.
We now know the VALUE that was missed..... or worse, taken.

Writers or experts have our best interests. They really do. At the same time, we have to mentally delete almost every word they write or say. They, for the most part, do not play for money. There are exceptions such as Todd Zola and others who play in the NFBC and other venues, but most do mock drafts or drafts for their integrity.
But as Al Capone was fond of saying, "Integrity don't make money."
It's easy for experts to back a player like Braun. He has a history of being a top three player. Ask them to put money on the table and I guarandamntee you, Braun falls in their eyes just like it did for NFBC drafters.

Yesterday on the Boards, it was brought up that Jose Fernandez had been drafted before Justin Verlander in the first two pay drafts of the year. There were slight arguments over who should go first. Some thought that Verlander should since he could be 'trusted' and that he had 'fixed' a mechanical flaw.
My first question would be, IT TOOK HIM AND THE DETROIT COACHES THIS LONG TO FIND A FLAW?
I don't buy it. I think what could have happened is that a coach said, 'Try this'. Verlander did, and then had renewed confidence.
Of course, whatever that piece of information was, it will be six months older next year, as will Verlander and his arm.

The Fernandez-Verlander argument is why we play fantasy baseball. I'd be willing to bet that almost every expert in the world will have Verlander ranked ahead of Fernandez.
Are they right?
I don't know.
But they do tend to lean towards the player that they can trust. A player with a pedigree. Verlander has that.
But, as Al Capone would say, "Pedigrees don't make money".
Capone sounds a little like Gekko.
The Fernandez-Verlander decision is a personal call. It don't matter what Matthew Berry or Ron Shandler or Gekko thinks.
What matters is what each fantasy player thinks on their own.
Berry, Shandler, and Gekko are just noise. Matter of fact, so am I.
And you know what Al Capone says about noise.
He says, "Shuddup already!!!!"

I gave my friend a scenario....
He's picking in the fourth round of a draft. It is his pick.
You LOVE Starling Marte. You've made up your mind that he could be a number one pick in the 2015 draft, and he is available.
At the same time, Matt Kemp, who you had pegged for the second round has dropped and is also available. You don't have a game plan for Kemp and like others, don't really figure him to play a full season. But, his adp is 25. Marte, 50.
My friend twisted in the wind a bit.
He asked how their spring training went. I said both were good during spring training.
He asked where they hit in the lineups during spring training. I told him Marte first. Kemp hit third.
Finally after asking other stupid questions, he decided on Kemp.
I hung my head.
Why, why, why, I asked.
He said that Kemp has been a number one pick before and that while he thought Marte COULD be a number one in 2015, Kemp has already been a number one. Maybe he could again.

I told him he had a lot to learn and not to expect to make money in his first year. I told him that Kemp was a VALUE trap.
Some drafters feel obliged to take him. While others WANT you to take him. They too, had him listed for the second round, but they'd never take him. Not even in the fourth round.
It's like buying a gallon of milk for just 50 cents. What a bargain!
Unbelieving that others passed on this deal, you take it home and find out that it is five days past the expiration date.
It was good in its day, but whether we can get even 50 cents of VALUE out of it is in question.
There are bargains and traps in drafts. The one who finds the most bargains and avoids the traps, Wins.
Pure and simple as that.

Writers will have Kemp ahead of Marte for the same reasons my buddy suggested. But Kemp is not the same player as when he was a number one pick. He's like the fastest gun in the west, only with arthritis in his shooting hand. And we're the folks looking at this gunslinger facing a new gunslinger in town.
We know who has reputation.
We know who has the pedigree.
Who do we bet on?
Ask Al Capone, he'll tell you.

[Bronx Yankees]

Dan - Great column. If there is one thing I've learned from playing in the NFBC with folks better at this game than myself is you take your guy when you can and ADP (and expert ranking lists) be damned. If I've backed the wrong guys in a draft, I'll be disappointed but at least I know that I did not deserve to win because my player evaluations weren't good enough. It is or would be far more frustrating to see the guys you really liked do well on someone else's team because you waited too long to get better "value" for them or changed your draft plan because someone you weren't particularly targeting "fell" to you. Using your Kemp and Marte example, when I first started playing in the NFBC, I too would've grabbed Kemp. Now, if I really liked Marte, I would grab him in a heartbeat.

Mike

P.S. I think the Verlander is back and will outperform Fernandez next year. Now, if we did keeper leagues ....

[DOUGHBOYS]

Thanks Mike.
It's a tough hurdle to overcome. We don't like Kemp. He wasn't a thought in the fourth round.
It almost feels like we're obligated to yell out Kemp's name, like the other 14 drafters are stupid. In reality it's the opposite, the other 14 are relieved he's off the board, a temptation gone.

The Verlander/Fernandez choice is and should be 100% personal preference. A case could be made either way.
A drafter coveting Corbin later in the draft may lean towards Verlander to mitigate youthful saturation.
Or a drafter coveting Sabathia may like the youth of Fernandez.
It's not always a matter of even who we like best, but who fits best with best laid plans.

When those 50 rounders start, we can see in green/red figures how our picks stack up against adp.
Some drafters will think something is accomplished by having green numbers.
If Kemp was taken in the fourth round last year, green numbers abound.
If Marte was taken even in the seventh round, BIG red numbers followed.
Which drafter got the VALUE at the time of the draft?
Which drafter cashed with real value after the draft?
THAT, is what counts, isn't it?

And just a by the way....
This isn't to criticize Kemp. If somebody likes him and thinks Kemp was a great pick in the third, but bypassed him for somebody else, only to see him still there in the 4th, then YAHTZEE!
Those other 14 drafters may feel the same way about dodging Kemp, but you like Kemp and have confidence in him.
That, is a good thing.