Great on Star Trek, But Not On My Fantasy Team!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Most NFBC'ers love their prospects. It is so because it is a possibility that we can get a wonderful year at a cheap price. Sometimes, that back fires a little bit. We'll fall in love with a prospect. So much so, that we get caught up in the hype without even realizing it ourselves.
I expect George Springer to be hyped this year. A 40-40 at any level, especially partially at AAA is enough to get any fantasy players juices flowing. By the time Main Events start and with a good spring training, I can see Springer going as high as round five. I won't take him there, but somebody will.

Hype works on all of us. If we read something enough times, we think it to be true. That near 40-40 season will be attached to Springer any time his name is mentioned. The possibility of him coming close to achieving the same thing at the Major League level seems to be more do-able with each hype article read. It's human nature.
Bryce Harper was hyped to the fullest. That hype carried him to the first rounds in some drafts.
Harper never came close to a 40-40 season at any level.

The hype begins with scouts. They'll hype players in high school and college. Writers will talk to scouts and the hype begins for all. Some of these prospects don't even have to hit up to their hype. Scouts follow the Shandler mantra that once a skill is shown, it is owned.
I don't believe that.
A player can possess all the skills needed at one level, but if they can't hit at the next, what good is that?

There is one hyped player that I find hard to understand, at least on the fantasy side of things.
Jurickson Profar.
Scouts love him. Writers pounce on that love and hype him to no end.
He becomes the number one prospect in baseball.
Number one!
He has never hit 15 homers during a minor league season.
He has stolen over 20 bases once.
He has never hit .300
Those facts mean something to me. Scouts can say he's advanced for his age. Scouts can say he can play more than one position. Scouts can talk about bat speed or leg speed.
Rat's ass!
If it doesn't translate to the baseball field in the form of five categories, Profar may as well be running for Mr. Congeniality.

One of the trademarks scouts like about Profar is his 'ability' to take a pitch.
I CAN TAKE A PITCH!
MY DEAD GRANDMA CAN TAKE A PITCH!
When are these scouts going to quit looking at that as a skill?
Sure, it's nice that he doesn't go outside the zone much to swing at a pitch. That's nice, especially for a young hitter, but on a meter of importance from 1-91, I'd rank that close to 17.
In the minor leagues, Profar has struck out 212 times. Walked 180 times.
Teams love it when those numbers are close together.
As a fantasy owner, I'm looking at the separation at the Major League level which is 67 whiffs and 23 walks.

Profar is like a bad parents kid for some owners or hypers.
They start making excuses for him. He didn't get enough playing time. He didn't have a set position. Maybe he was rushed up to the Major Leagues.
I don't care.
He's here and something has to be done with him from a fantasy drafters perspective.
To tell the truth, I watched him a couple of times and I didn't see anything to hang a fantasy hat on. He was slower than I expected. And he really doesn't have the body for a lot of homers. At least early in his career.
The fantasy side of me tells me that if I were the Rangers, I would trade him while hype is still high.
The fantasy side of me also knows that I'll be unlikely to draft him this year.

Last year, strictly on hype, Profar was being taken anywhere from the 13th-20th rounds.
That is not a bad gamble for somebody beloved by scouts. Where Profar really hurt his drafters is that he became a fantasy Cling-on.
Fantasy Cling-ons are players who stick around with a club, but never really fulfill a drafters promise.
Fantasy Cling-ons are killers for fantasy owners in that they're damned if they keep him, robbing him of a bench spot.
And damned if they drop him in giving up on the promise, and possibly letting that promise be realized by a competitor.
Most prospects at the Major League level either make it or are sent down to the minors making it easy for fantasy owners to let go.
Cling-ons are a bitch.

Last years best prospect (as it turned out) had little hype. He had little hype because he was not expected to be in the Major Leagues at the beginning of the year.
Jose Fernandez fooled them all.
Fernandez showed right from the git go that he had the goods. HE was what all us fantasy drafters are looking for.
A true bargain.
If getting Profar in the 25th round, a drafter claimed 'VALUE'.
A pick of Fernandez in that same 25th round produced a shoulder shrug.
This is why I keep saying that nobody... NOBODY gets 'value' at a draft. Value is never realized till later.
This year when Profar is taken, no matter the round, his drafter will not claim 'value'.
The prospect has turned to suspect.

[ToddZ]

One of the trademarks scouts like about Profar is his 'ability' to take a pitch.
I CAN TAKE A PITCH!
MY DEAD GRANDMA CAN TAKE A PITCH!
When are these scouts going to quit looking at that as a skill?

I don't know, maybe when teams stop winning the World Series in large part because they take pitches?

[DOUGHBOYS]

One of the trademarks scouts like about Profar is his 'ability' to take a pitch.
I CAN TAKE A PITCH!
MY DEAD GRANDMA CAN TAKE A PITCH!
When are these scouts going to quit looking at that as a skill?

I don't know, maybe when teams stop winning the World Series in large part because they take pitches?

AHHHHH, but there's taking pitches and there's taking pitches.
There are some hitters who take pitches for a purpose. Some that don't.
I think we had this conversation.

I would much rather have a Mike Napoli or David Ortiz approach to taking a walk than a Joey Votto or Jurickson Profar.
The art is just not in taking a pitch.
It goes way beyond that. That is the point I was trying to make for my departed grandma.
She can't deal with a curveball though.