Hot Stove League Talk: Let's Break It Down

[ToddZ]

To get a little numerish bordering on value....

The difference in potential between consecutive players in the first round is much greater than in later rounds.

In auction dollar terms, the difference between the 6th pick and 15th pick is $5 or $6. For me Cano is still a first rounder, just not in the 5-7 range -- down to the 8-10 range.

He's now lumped in with those with top of the first talent but with a question like health (CarGo) track record (Davis) etc.

[KJ Duke]

Now we have the Seattle Mariners signing Robinson Cano to a 10-year, $240 million contract. How does moving from Yankee Stadium to Seattle hurt Cano's fantasy value? Does he drop out of the Top 10? Out of the first round? C'mon, inquiring minds want to know.

I would not consider him for round 1, but a lot of drafters are habitual and there will be at least a few in each draft that will take him as before. He stays in round 1 a few picks later than before, but he's not worth it. A few less HRs, less BA upside and more BBs are likely in that lineup. Also less runs and definitely less RBI. And he just got paid for the next 10 years. For me, he slots late second/ early third.

[KJ Duke]

Curtis Granderson signs with the New York Mets: 4 years, $60 million. Going from Yankee Stadium to this park can't help Granderson's fantasy value, that's for sure.

What's with all of these Yankees leaving the Bronx??

His vaue was suspect before. Hard to know what you'll get but it won't be close to 40 HRs, probably won't be 30, and I wouldn't even bet on 25.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Agree whole-heartedly with Todd and KJ.
One more thing to add about the Granderson signing and why it is terrible for the Mets.
Even the most ardent Mets fan knows in their heart of hearts that the Mets will not challenge for a Championship in the next couple of years. Harvey is out this year and the first year back could be rocky for him.
Wheeler showed us enough last year to make us think that he may be very good, but not an ace. Plus, he hasn't shown us that injury will not stalk him during his career.Montero and Syndergaard are still pulls of a slot machine. We don't know if they'll crap out or be triple 7's.
Anyway, their window of opportunity is based on that young pitching flourishing. That, in all liklihood will be two-years down the road. So how does Granderson fit in?
In short, he doesn't.
He becomes a band-aid to appease Met fans until they can truly make a run. They could have lost without him. Now, the only thing that changes is that they'll lose with him.
When the Mets need him most, he'll be playing the last year of his contract.
Until then, he is .225 hitting and 20 homer hitting window dressing.

[ToddZ]

To get a little numerish bordering on value....

The difference in potential between consecutive players in the first round is much greater than in later rounds.

In auction dollar terms, the difference between the 6th pick and 15th pick is $5 or $6. For me Cano is still a first rounder, just not in the 5-7 range -- down to the 8-10 range.

He's now lumped in with those with top of the first talent but with a question like health (CarGo) track record (Davis) etc.

OK, just ran the numbers and I've got Cano as the 21st hitter so that's mid second when you add in a SP or two.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Agree whole-heartedly with Todd and KJ.
One more thing to add about the Granderson signing and why it is terrible for the Mets.
Even the most ardent Mets fan knows in their heart of hearts that the Mets will not challenge for a Championship in the next couple of years. Harvey is out this year and the first year back could be rocky for him.
Wheeler showed us enough last year to make us think that he may be very good, but not an ace. Plus, he hasn't shown us that injury will not stalk him during his career.Montero and Syndergaard are still pulls of a slot machine. We don't know if they'll crap out or be triple 7's.
Anyway, their window of opportunity is based on that young pitching flourishing. That, in all liklihood will be two-years down the road. So how does Granderson fit in?
In short, he doesn't.
He becomes a band-aid to appease Met fans until they can truly make a run. They could have lost without him. Now, the only thing that changes is that they'll lose with him.
When the Mets need him most, he'll be playing the last year of his contract.
Until then, he is .225 hitting and 20 homer hitting window dressing.

Every signing, every move these days is about the Regional Sports Networks. RSNs are driving the business of baseball, plain and simple. Seattle is getting $2 billion in RSN revenue. It's changed the game as we know it more than any other single event in baseball history. Showing 162 games a year on TV is more important than even drawing fans to the ballparks. That's where the money is, so trying to break down the value of contracts is useless these days because it's all about the now for the RSNs. There will be more money later from the RSNs to cover these bad contracts.

[DOUGHBOYS]

OK, just ran the numbers and I've got Cano as the 21st hitter so that's mid second when you add in a SP or two.

Wow. Do you have him ahead or behind Kipnis?

[ToddZ]

OK, just ran the numbers and I've got Cano as the 21st hitter so that's mid second when you add in a SP or two.

Wow. Do you have him ahead or behind Kipnis?

Kipnis NEXT - separated by pennies which means they're the same, just depends on which stats distribution you prefer qualified by your feelings on ceiling and floor.

For me, the wild card with Kipnis is the steals -- how bankable are they?

[DOUGHBOYS]

It's changed the game as we know it more than any other single event in baseball history. Showing 162 games a year on TV is more important than even drawing fans to the ballparks. That's where the money is, so trying to break down the value of contracts is useless these days because it's all about the now for the RSNs. There will be more money later from the RSNs to cover these bad contracts.

More than any other single event? In baseball history?
That is way too strong, Greg.
Free agency itself, is larger than regional television.
Without free agency, regional television would only mean more money for owners. Period.

When radio became a way of life for Americans, like the internet is now, they wanted baseball over their air waves.
Some teams could not wait to have their games broadcast.
For very little money, their games would go out to millions of folks.
Some shortsighted owners refused though. They were afraid that customers would not come to the games.
They asked themselves, 'why should we give away our product for free?'
Upon reading your post, I thought about those owners and smiled.

[KJ Duke]

OK, just ran the numbers and I've got Cano as the 21st hitter so that's mid second when you add in a SP or two.

Wow. Do you have him ahead or behind Kipnis?

Kipnis NEXT - separated by pennies which means they're the same, just depends on which stats distribution you prefer qualified by your feelings on ceiling and floor.

For me, the wild card with Kipnis is the steals -- how bankable are they?

On my first run at projections, I have Kipnis with a clear edge. The SBs easily overcome the BA difference.

[Edwards Kings]

First, value schmalue.

The signing is huge for the Mariners. Players shy away from going to markets like Seattle, Colorado, and Kansas City. Money is not made at those places and neither are winners. This signing alone can trigger more players to sign with the Mariners. Not just big free agents, but the smaller fish too.

I typically do not like paying the huge bucks for players on long contracts, but in this case I agree totally with Dan on this one. This move can give the Mariners more legitimacy. If Seattle stops here, a waste. If they aggressively market to attract a few more key players (doesn't have to be huge dollars) to go around Cano, I see a win.

Cano does not steal, so no decline there. He is a great hitter, so no decline in BA. A line drive hitter to the expense of flyballs, but I see a decline back to the 20ish HR rather than 25-28ish HR, so down here. RBI's down to the 90ish range instead of 100+, so down. Runs not much change from 2013 (80-85) where he suffered from lack of support from the Yankees but down from 2009-2012, so down again. His ADP will go down, but I still see him going first round.

I never picked him when available in the first round (yes, my name is Wayne and I am a dumbass), so I am not likely to do so now.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Curtis Granderson signs with the New York Mets: 4 years, $60 million. Going from Yankee Stadium to this park can't help Granderson's fantasy value, that's for sure.

What's with all of these Yankees leaving the Bronx??

His vaue was suspect before. Hard to know what you'll get but it won't be close to 40 HRs, probably won't be 30, and I wouldn't even bet on 25.

Well, ESPN.com says the move won't hurt him at all and they will keep him at No. 5 overall. So there's that.

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/sto ... e-mariners

[KJ Duke]

Curtis Granderson signs with the New York Mets: 4 years, $60 million. Going from Yankee Stadium to this park can't help Granderson's fantasy value, that's for sure.

What's with all of these Yankees leaving the Bronx??

His vaue was suspect before. Hard to know what you'll get but it won't be close to 40 HRs, probably won't be 30, and I wouldn't even bet on 25.

Well, ESPN.com says the move won't hurt him at all and they will keep him at No. 5 overall. So there's that.

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/sto ... e-mariners

He's never delivered top 5 fantasy numbers in his career and he never will be because of his lack of steals. He's consistent though, so he'll appeal to those who like to play it safe, like EPSN writers.

[ToddZ]

Well, ESPN.com says the move won't hurt him at all and they will keep him at No. 5 overall. So there's that.

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/sto ... e-mariners

Let's see where he is after the ESPN rankings summit in late January.

The guy doing their baseline projections isn't as confident

[KJ Duke]

Those epsn guys are lost until they get set straight at the summit !

[DOUGHBOYS]

Those epsn guys are lost until they get set straight at the summit !

ESPN ADP

[BK METS]

Cano never needed steals to be a top 5 pick. He is a 4 category stud at 2nd base. No one is even remotely close to him at that position. Kipnis doesn't have the batting average or the power.

Cano is still a top 10 pick. Even if you drop the HR's to 20-25, he still will drive in 100 and score close to 100. Remember, he had very little around him this year, other than Soriano, and he still had 27-107-.314. On top of the fact he rarely ever misses a game.

If he is available at #10, I will take him all day long.

[KJ Duke]

Cano never needed steals to be a top 5 pick. He is a 4 category stud at 2nd base. No one is even remotely close to him at that position. Kipnis doesn't have the batting average or the power.

Cano is still a top 10 pick. Even if you drop the HR's to 20-25, he still will drive in 100 and score close to 100. Remember, he had very little around him this year, other than Soriano, and he still had 27-107-.314. On top of the fact he rarely ever misses a game.

If he is available at #10, I will take him all day long.

His stats have put him in the #8-#20 range almost every year, not many players are as consistent but his stats have never put him in the top 5 at season's end. At age 30/31 and playing in Seattle, it's not gonna now at post-peak in a worse park/lineup.

Kipnis was worth $23 last year, Cano $25. That's pretty close. The fact that he is 2b arguably adds marginal value versus other top players, but no more than $1-$2, so he was well behind the top five at $31-$47.

As for projections, I don't see him near 100/100.

[Outlaw]

Good for Cano getting all that money. In 10 months he'll be 32. Mariners will be regretting this deal in 2-3 years. Jist another Alberl deal...bad... I think people will be shocked at the drop in Canos production this coming year. Avg might be there, but thats it.

The Yankees had it right 7 years 165M is all he was worth. Could Jeter go to 2B now?

[BK METS]

Cano never needed steals to be a top 5 pick. He is a 4 category stud at 2nd base. No one is even remotely close to him at that position. Kipnis doesn't have the batting average or the power.

Cano is still a top 10 pick. Even if you drop the HR's to 20-25, he still will drive in 100 and score close to 100. Remember, he had very little around him this year, other than Soriano, and he still had 27-107-.314. On top of the fact he rarely ever misses a game.

If he is available at #10, I will take him all day long.

His stats have put him in the #8-#20 range almost every year, not many players are as consistent but his stats have never put him in the top 5 at season's end. At age 30/31 and playing in Seattle, it's not gonna now at post-peak in a worse park/lineup.

Kipnis was worth $23 last year, Cano $25. That's pretty close. The fact that he is 2b arguably adds marginal value versus other top players, but no more than $1-$2, so he was well behind the top five at $31-$47.

As for projections, I don't see him near 100/100.

I think you are underestimated the worth of a middle infielder with those kind of numbers.

[Brock]

Beltran just signed with the Yanks 3/45. Gotta like what they're doing and I fully expect them to sign Tanaka if he's posted.

[BK METS]

Yanks now sign Carlos Beltran. I hope, for Yankee fans sake, that he can pitch. Do they know they can only start 3 outfielders or will they trade Gardner to the Mets for Daniel Murphy? Seems like a good trade for both teams, no?

[KJ Duke]

I think you are underestimated the worth of a middle infielder with those kind of numbers.

In shallow leagues they could be worth more, but not in 15-tm leagues where the opportunity cost of filling in later starters evens out the value of most position hitters to no more than a buck or two, except catchers.

[Outlaw]

Yanks now sign Carlos Beltran. I hope, for Yankee fans sake, that he can pitch. Do they know they can only start 3 outfielders or will they trade Gardner to the Mets for Daniel Murphy? Seems like a good trade for both teams, no?

Gardner has to be moved, makes no sense to keep him... Soriano back to 2B? Gardner will go for a pitcher probably... Beltran for 3 years.... insane... with his knees, even though the DH, still 45M??

[Brock]

Alan, as a Yankee fan I would love to see Daniel Murphy to the Yanks for Gardner. Or send Gardner to the Cubbies for Samardjzia.