It Brings Tiers to my Eyes

[DOUGHBOYS]

I was talking to an NFBC friend yesterday. He is currently involved in a 50 round draft. He asked my opinion on this player or that. He explained that it was a tough decision for him. It involved one player who he felt was the last of a tier at one position or a player at the top of a tier at another position.
I used to tier draft picks, so I know where he is coming from. I do not tier players any more because roster construction in the NFBC is so much more important than a perceived notion that Greg Holland ends one tier, while Joe Nathan starts another.

Tiering is perception. It can be backed by our own visions or by numbers, it'll still come down to our own perceptions.
Some projectionists in publications will tier players. It's nonsense, really.
If thinking it is not nonsense, go back to any publication that tiered last year, any of them, and you'll see that these are off even more than projections are.
In my mind, it is better to be off on projections, rather than give a reader the misconception that a player is a whole tier better than another.

I know one projectionist who tiered last year and brought tears to drafters eyes. He had Holland and Wilhelmson in the same tier. It made sense at the time. Both were young. Both threw hard.
At the same time, I didn't feel that Wilhelmson had much of a minor league pedigree. The year before called up, Wilhelmson had a 5.49 E.R.A. at AA. 40 strike outs in 60 innings. A one hit wonder or Missouri/Missouri was in order for Wilhelmson.
In the two years before being called up by the Royals, minor leaguers were batting under .200 against Holland.
The writer surmised that Wilhelmson would be a first tier pitcher the following year, while showing concern over Holland's control

Tiering is a mirage. When wrong about a projection, one is merely missing on a player. When wrong about a player in a tier, he is messing with groups of players. A more egregious error in my mind.
Many players self-tier. As said, I used to. But, the realization struck that roster construction is so much more important than tiering. Matt Wieters and Jonathon Lucroy may be in the same tiers in many drafters minds, but their skill sets are completely different. Lucroy can be counted on for more average, Wieters more power.
It makes no matter to me if these two catchers are in the same tier or not. What matters is who fits in better with a pre-draft strategy or even the first players selected.
In some cases, a catcher on a lower tier, such as AJ Pierzynski could be a better fit for a team than Wieters. Tierists won't see this. Only that Wieters is a tier above Pierzynski.

I tried to explain this to my friend and got a 'Yeah, but'. A 'Yeah, but' means that he didn't want to hear why to pick somebody, just WHO to pick.
I gave him a recommendation, but knew that his path was most likely flawed.
Tiering lumps together players of several different skills. On paper, it looks to be a very orderly way to do things.
In practice, it is misleading in almost every way.
I can revisit some ways to draft from past years gone by.
Tiering players will not be one of them.

[Edwards Kings]

Tiering...mirage...got it.

ADP...worthless...check.

Projections...exercise in futility...right.

Numerish...fools errand...okey-dokey.

Value...does not exist...understood.

What does that leave? Ahhh....one must clear ones mind and connect with the philosophical system of harmonizing the human existence with the surrounding draft environment...must flow as wind and water...find your spiritual animal guide...show me "sand the floor"...

Very zen...I got it..."Feng Shui" drafting! One question...does it require much incense?

[DOUGHBOYS]

I get your point, Wayne. I'll bet that in one stage or another, every NFBC drafter has experienced each and every one of those methods, I know I have.
By now, being an NFBC veteran, roster construction must take precedence over each of those ways to build a draft.
First a plan has to be made before going into a draft. We know our draft positions before we sit down at the table. We've already either seen or been involved in dozens of drafts. We should be able to devise a plan for our draft based on the draft pick. For instance, I've had the sixth pick in three drafts already.
I'm not married to any player that is coming up at the sixth spot. Some years, I am. One player fits several plans, or sometimes, I'll think a lower player will play better than top touted players.
Each of my drafts had a strategy different from the other, and so were the selections in the first round. I've taken Kershaw, McCutchen, and Ellsbury out of that slot. I don't care and have not looked at any ADP to see if these are 'good' picks. I just know they fit for me in each draft.

I do have rankings in front of me. These rankings are by no means a drop dead, one name is better than another ranking. For the most part. they are reminders in who is available to fill my plan. There are no projections by those names. There are no lines drawn to illustrate tiers.
If you tier, look at those tiers from last year and have a hardy laugh at yourself. It is the reason I gave up tiering. We are fooling ourselves with tiers. Last year, Chris Davis was in most drafters second tiers. I looked at him as a possibly wonderful power source. This year, the same can be said for Abreu. When tiering, we limit ourselves, fooling ourselves into thinking that a line separates one class of position from another. Reality doesn't work that way.

We are all built to get the most for our money. That is why drafters like to call, 'value pick'.
You get value when going to WalMart and finding something for the cheapest price available and putting that product to use.
Drafting a player is different. It isn't like going to WalMart, it is more like buying a gold mine. We won't know the true value of that gold mine till it is mined.
Sure, there are gold mines that have better chances of striking gold and we'll pay more for those. Still, the true value is not obtained until results are seen.

ADP is not worthless. It merely should not be followed like it is the truth. ADP is built mostly by folks who lose in drafts. One winner, 14 losers means that ADP is built by losers. There is no harm in seeing where a player may or may not fall. However taking a player based on that alone is a fools errand.
I find humor in that folks think they have found 'value' based on a mostly loser type list.
Always will.
Look at it this way....
You see Steve Jupinka enter a slow draft. You also see 14 other names. Names you never heard of.
Would you rather get a look at Jupinka's ADP or the 14 unknown names?
In the end, Jupinka's list will be consumed by the 14 other names and what remains is a list of players, mostly based on the 14 unknowns.
I hope that makes sense.

Numerish is fine. I love reading articles by the Numerish. Where I deviate from the Numerish is that they focus more on how a player makes an out. I don't care. We all get that the more a player misses a pitch, the better chance his average falls.
They also like to focus on what a pitcher is doing wrong, not right.
I can show you an article written by a Numerish guy who called out many successful Closers last year because of their personal pitfall of not having pinpoint control. I like focusing on what they do right, not wrong.
Also, they love that a batter walks. Even if labeled a skill, as it is in Joey Votto's case, I don't believe that it counts in any of our five hitting categories, Sure, a walk is better than a strike out, we all know that.
At the same time, I get a little more satisfaction in Jay Bruce striking out swinging for the fences than Joey Votto walking and being stranded on the bases, but that is probably just me.

What does that leave?
It leaves you.
You can read Shandler. You can enjoy ADP and 'value' if thinking it exists.
In the end though, it'll be you. Not Shandler. Not ADP. Not 'value'. Not anything else.
What I'm preaching is that all these devices...Shandler, tiering, adp, value picks, all of it, is a form of making us color inside the lines. Roster construction allows us the freedom to build 10 categories according to a strategy. Our OWN strategy. That strategy can be hitting rich. It can be pitching rich. It can be 75/75 after three rounds, then build a team in the other eight categories. Anything, it is our team.
In short, what does that leave?
A well formulated plan, a good list of names, and YOU.

[Edwards Kings]

Dan,

Just tugging your beard a bit a you know. Hope you did not take offense. Your articles and insights are great and enjoyable.

You are, of course, right. We should/can use all the tools available to us.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Dan,

Just tugging your beard a bit a you know. Hope you did not take offense. Your articles and insights are great and enjoyable.

You are, of course, right. We should/can use all the tools available to us.

You know that
And I know that
My response was more for the masses.
Always enjoy the responses, Wayne. Never any offense taken at all. I get enough of that taken away in drafts.
A very Merry Christmas to you and yours!

[Rog]

let me see here
I have tried
balanced
75/75
100/100
power strong
pitching strong
4 closers
all judy's
number 3 hitters
gathering as much info from the slow draft chats(which are better than any magazine I have ever read)
I have succeeded in all of them(league play) (except judy's) cant seem to get that one to work
I have failed in all of them(many more times than I have succeeded)
The one thing that they all have in common is team construction.
I use adp to let me know when I need to jump early on a player I like ,not so much to follow a program
I use tiers to know when to take my second baseman before the masses think I should take him.
I hate leaving a draft and saying damn I just missed out on this guy and( this guy ) and saying things like "I really thought he would make it back to me"
I like leaving a draft and a saying I had a few league members busting my balls about taking Dom. Brown way early "you could of got him in the 17th" followed by my response of yeah you are probably correct but what I do know is I got him and ain't saying damn it I cant believe he didn't make it back to me in the 17th round.

bottom line find a system that works for you and run with it
A wise friend of mine once told me if you like him take him (that way you dont have to worry about him making it back)
MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE