We Are a Strange Group

[DOUGHBOYS]

The new adp is out. We will forever hear that so and so player carries an adp ranking of 148 among NFBC drafters.
Stupid, really.
There are a few of us who like to draft early. We're stupid.
We enjoy baseball, especially the fantasy side, so we draft without full information.
We didn't know if Tanaka would be posted. Now, that we do know, we still don't know which team he will sign with.
That, does not stop stupid drafters.
We don't know AROd's penalty. We don't know if AJ Burnett will retire or play. We didn't know where Choo or Ellsbury or Cano would sign.
We didn't know Addison Reed would be in the National League. Doug Fister too. We didn't know McCann would be in the American League.
And still, we drafted.
Then to multiply the stupidity, these players are given rankings based on that naivete.
And some will use that adp as a guide.
It is a little bit like Lewis and Clark using Abbott and Costello as guides to find their way.
We are a strange group.

I believe that some of these players will not be taken near as high as they are now, once the REAL drafts begin in March.
Here's a list of one player per round that will most likely fall in adp before March.
All these players are in the top 100......For now.

6th round-
Number 79- Billy Hamilton

Hamilton hit .286 at AA in 2012. He hit .256 at AAA in 2013. This is being ignored.
He has one skill that transcends that trend. He can run.
Hoping to be long in one category, his drafters are not caring about other categories.
Folks say that Hamilton has no comp. I beg to differ. I compare him to Jim Johnson.
Jim Johnson is a one category pitcher. He's garnered more Saves over the last two years than strike outs.
Hamilton's adp price tag, 79. Johnson, 137. Sexiness comes at a price.

5th round-
Number 72- Mark Trumbo

Oh come on! You knew this was coming!
Trumbo is a right handed Adam Dunn. The difference being that it took years to solidify Adam Dunn as 'Adam Dunn'.
Trumbo is still young and drafters have that child-like faith that he will hit for average along with a lot of home runs.
If anything, the comp to Dunn is kind. Dunn had years and years of 40 homers. A doubtful trend for Trumbo.


4th round-
Number 60- Ian Kinsler

Kinsler was traded from a ball park that suited him well. On a team that suited his fantasy abilities well.
Now, he goes to Detroit.
He'll probably lead off. Lead off hitters don't run in Detroit. They wait patiently on base for Miguel Cabrera to knock them in. Which is just as well for Kinsler since he was nearly caught stealing (11) almost as much as his actual steals (15).
Kinsler's power numbers have severely worsened over the last three years. Going from 32 homers to 13.
He'll probably score a lot of runs. That is what lead off guys do in Detroit. But those expecting Ian Kinsler numbers from the past, in other categories will be disappointed.


3rd round-
Number 41- Matt Kemp

Kemp is a wonderful athlete. Matt Harvey is a wonderful pitcher.
There is something to be said for the finality of a pitcher's season when requiring Tommy John. He doesn't become a notion to drafters. With Kemp, drafters will allow themselves to think, what if?
They'll ask themselves, what if and even draft him.
They should be asking themselves-
Why aren't the Dodgers getting rid of any outfielders?
Why did Kemp, just two weeks ago, get out of his walking boot?
Why am I about to waste a third round pick?
Next April, they'll see Kemp on their roster and hope they can at least get some use out of him.

2nd round
Number 24- Giancarlo Stanton

What does this guy have to do to prove that he should not be in the top rounds?
Play with a horrible team? Check!
Play in a pitchers league? Check!
Seemingly always hurt? Check!
Play in a ball park that resembles an ugly ranch with fences on the back 40? Check!
Stanton has hit over .265 once. Never has had 90 rbi. Never has scored 90 runs. Never stolen 10 bases.
No first or second round hitter can say that.
He is a one category player! A feat that is tough for a power hitter.
And yet, drafters dig him.

1st round-
Number 12- Ryan Braun.

Braun came from the planet, Krypton. For years, he would shed his Clark Kent clothes and be SUPERMAN on the field.
Last year, folks found out that he had an unfair advantage in being from Krypton.
Even knowing that Braun will bat this year with Kryptonite in his back pocket, drafters are betting on first round numbers.
I fear the Kryptoite will result in harm for Braun. Injuries that he was impervious to before will affect him like normal men.
His super powers will be sapped. Doomed to the fate of being a mere mortal.
Look! Up in the sky!
It's a bird!
It's a plane!
No, it's just another Ryan Braun fly ball being caught.