Winter Training

[CC's Desperados]

When you only win 63 games, odds are not much is going right for your team. That was definitely the case for the Chicago White Sox in 2013. After finishing 2nd in the AL Central in 2012 (were leading up until 9/26/2012), the White Sox plummeted to the basement of the division to finish in last place in 2013. With Chris Sale set in stone as the ace of this staff, who is going to step up behind him to help get the White Sox going in the right direction again?

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the White Sox pitching staff!

To give you a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of John Danks:

Danks missed the first 7 weeks of last season after having left shoulder surgery. When he returned, his fastball (89.3 – career low) had less velocity. His command (1.8) was elite, but his K rate (5.8) was short and too many fly balls ended up in the seats (28 HR’s in 138.3 innings). Overall, he struggled with both RH (.270) and LH (.293 batters). His ERA was under 4.00 only once (August – 3.86). Over his last 4 starts of the year, Danks allowed 19 runs and 39 base runners in 21.3 innings. He clearly wasn’t 100% healthy last season. This season, he needs more life on his pitches in the strike zone. John’s K rate lacks any upside. This season, he’ll need volume of innings to deliver any value. His command suggests he still can pitch in the majors, but he needs to make better pitches. Maybe a 3.75 ERA with 150 K’s if he shows some life in spring training.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/20/201 ... A21RS.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

It’s always good to be positive, but that could be tough to accomplish when analyzing the Minnesota Twins. After winning the AL Central in 2009 and 2010, the Twins have lost 96 or more games in each of the last 3 seasons. When your pitching staff gives up the 2nd most runs in the AL and your offense averages less than 4 runs per game, winning baseball games is not going to be very easy. They added some players in the offseason (Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Jason Kubel, Kurt Suzuki), but overall they still have a below average pitching staff and offense.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Minnesota Twins batters!

To give you an example of what my fantasy baseball player profiles are like, here is my breakdown of Joe Mauer:

Mauer had his season cut short in August due to a concussion. His batting average continues to be an asset, but his power has been a no show in every season except 2009. Joe’s FB rate (25.4%) remains very low and it restricts his upside in power, however, his HR/FB rate (12.1%) was the 2nd highest of his career. His K rate (17.5%) was a career high and his walk rate (12.0%) remains in a very good area. This year, he will move to first base and is expected to get the most at bats of his career. As a player that qualifies at catcher, he will be an asset in runs and batting average for sure. The overall Twins lineup is weak, so his RBI upside is limited. Joe has had a high RBI % for most of his career, but struggled with runners on base in 2013. I’m really intrigued by his chance to get 600 at bats with a plus batting average. His power may now have a baseline of 15. If his price point is fair, he is going to be one of my top options at catcher as his high average will allow me to buy low average power later in the draft. 2014 will be his 2nd best season in the majors.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/21/201 ... BGmcf.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

Judging by some of their free agent acquisitions, the Minnesota Twins are clearly looking to upgrade their pitching staff after a rough 2013 season. They shelled out $73 million to sign Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes (now are the 2nd and 3rd highest paid players on the team respectively). That might not sound like much if you are a Yankees fan, but these 2 guys are making just under $19 million this year. With a payroll of around $76 million, that’s 25% of it dedicated to two guys. When you factor in Joe Mauer, that’s over 50% of the payroll for 3 players!

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Minnesota Twins pitching staff!

To get an idea for what my player profiles are like, here is my analysis of Glen Perkins:

Perkins has pitched great over the last 3 seasons in the bullpen for the Twins. He has even improved in each of his last 2 seasons. His K rate (11.1) was a career high and it is 4+ K’s higher than his career average. His command (2.2) has also been very good in 5 of his last 6 seasons, while his AFB (94.9) matched his career high from last season. The only other pitch he throws is a slider. Perkins now has an elite first strike % (70). Glen dominated RH batters (.183) and only allowed 2 extra base hits in 55 at bats to lefties. His skill set looks elite. Perkins has upside in K’s, plus he looks like a stable option for saves. In October, Glen had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. He is expected is be ready for spring training.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/22/201 ... KASgN.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

Simply put, it has been a rough 3 years for the Houston Astros. They have averaged only 54 wins over that period, including a franchise low 51 wins in 2013. When your results look like that, it doesn’t take an expert to figure out that their pitching and hitting have completely sucked recently. In 2013 alone, they ranked 26th or lowered in the following categories:

- Hitting: Runs scored, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage
- Pitching: ERA, quality starts, WHIP, BAA

It’s probably going to be another long season in 2014, however, they do have some talented draft picks moving up through the farm system.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Houston Astros batters!

If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my breakdown of Jose Altuve:

Altuve regressed slightly across the board in 2013, with the exception of RBI’s (52). His K rate (12.7%) remains solid, but it was higher than 2012 (11.8%). His walk rate (4.8%) is real short and was lower than last year (6.4%). Jose is a better hitter against lefties (.321 – career) with much more power (6 HR’s in 390 at bats – 8 HR’s in 1033 at bats against RH pitching). Altuve is a GB hitter (49.2%) with a short FB rate (28.3%) and an even shorter HR/FB rate (3.2%). Jose is one of the smallest players in the league, but he did hit 10 HR’s or more twice during his minor league career. He has stolen 30+ bags over the last 2 seasons, but was caught a league high 13 times in 2013. Altuve is a nice middle infielder than has more upside in power and could have more steals if he can improve his base stealing technique. Possible .300 average with a 10/30 skill set.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/23/201 ... BBeu9.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

We are working to get the tabs better on the site, but we are at the mercy of the programmer. For those of you following my madness, this link will help you look back at all teams that have been posted. The teams in black haven't been updated. I added Tanaka to the Yankees if you want to get a feel for my thoughts.

The AL will be done today and it will be posted over the next couple of days. The target date to finished is February 15th.

Thanks for following and please give me any feed back if you like to see anything else.

https://www.scoutpro.com/2014-fantasy-b ... r-profiles

[CC's Desperados]

From 2001-2008, the Houston Astros had a winning record 7 times. Over the past 5 years, their highest win total in any season is 76 (2010 season). It’s amazing how quickly the tide can turn in baseball, and for that matter in any sport. A good example of this would be the San Francisco 49ers. Jim Harbaugh has been the head coach for 3 years now, and they have made the NFC Championship Game every year (and one Super Bowl). From 2003-2010, the Niners had zero winning seasons. I’m not saying the Astros are going to have an amazing turnaround this year, but all those draft picks coming up through the farm system could mean good times are coming.

Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Houston Astros pitching staff!

To give you an example of my analysis, here is my breakdown of Astros SP Scott Feldman:

You know is it going to be a long year for the Astros when I can’t find a better option as an ace than Feldman. He pitched real well for the Cubs over 15 starts (3.46 ERA). Scott had decent command (2.8) in 2013, but his K rate (6.5) remains short. Feldman allowed 3 runs or less in 11 of his 15 starts with Baltimore, but was racked 3 times (20 runs and 28 base runners in 12.3 innings) which led to a weaker ERA (4.27) in the AL. His AFB (89.9) was almost 2 mph lower than his previous season. Scott throws a cutter as his #2 pitch, followed by a curveball and a show me split-finger fastball. Surprisingly, both RH (.233) and LH (.235) batters had a tough time hitting him. This year, he is destined to have an ERA over 4.50. Feldman has pitched poorly as starter in 3 of 5 seasons. His low first pitch strike % (56) isn’t a good sign for 2014. Avoid at all costs.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/24/201 ... WDvUD.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

When you look at the Angels lineup, some big names like Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Mike Trout really stand out. Trout has developed into one of, if not the best player in MLB in just a few seasons (quite impressive for a 22-year old kid). When you look at Pujols and Hamilton’s numbers from 2013, it’s hard not to wonder if they are more concerned with their off the field numbers ($$) rather than their on-field production. If the Angels want to get back to the playoffs (last appearance was 2009), they are going to need to get some legitimate production out of their big money players. Those two guys alone are due just over $40 million in 2014!

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Los Angeles Angels batters!

To see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of David Freese:

Freese has been a disappointment over the last 2 seasons after having an electric playoff run in 2011 (.397 with 5 HR’s and 21 RBI in 63 at bats). David is a player that tends to get nicked up, which makes him a tough player to own. His K rate (20.5%) was a career best in 2013, while his walk rate (9.0%) was above his career average. Last year, his batting average (.262) was a career low and he had a huge drop off in power (9 HR’s – career low). Freese entered 2013 with a bad back that cost him time in April and he suffered a minor thumb injury in May. David hit .310 in May and June with 5 HR’s and 25 RBI. His GB rate (55.2%) was a career high, and he doesn’t hit many fly balls (24.0%). Whoever bats 5th in the Angels lineup should have a plus RBI opportunity. Freese has a serviceable major league bat with 20 HR and 80 RBI upside. However, his low FB rate restricts his rise in power. Last year’s drop in power may have just been a combination of a bad back and bad thumb. His poor season will give him some value on draft day.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/24/201 ... lQR8I.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

Unfortunately for them, the Angels pitching staff has been going in the wrong direction over the past few seasons. They finished 24th in ERA (4.23), 27th in WHIP (1.38) and 26th in BAA (.261) in 2013. With a WHIP that high, it comes as no surprise that they walked 533 batters over the entire season.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Los Angeles Angels pitchers!

To see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of Angels closer, Ernesto Frieri:

Frieri wasn’t an easy ride last year. He struggled with walks (17 in 23.7 innings) over the first 2 months of the season. This led to a bad stretch in May where he allowed 6 runs and 12 base runners in 5.3 innings. He survived his slump without blowing any saves, but his 2nd bad stretch in late July and early August (12 runs and 19 base runners in 4.7 innings) led to him losing the closer job for 2 weeks. When he returned to the 9th inning in late August, he only walked 3 batters over his last 16.7 innings with 22 K’s. Ernesto finished 2013 with a plus, plus K rate (12.8), but his walk rate (3.9) is a huge problem especially if you add in 11 HR’s (1.4 per 9 innings). RH batters hit .292 against him. Frieri was very good against lefties (.159), but he allowed 21 of his 30 walks to them. His HR problem was to both sides of the plate. Last year, he had an incredible 59.2% FB rate. His AFB (94.4) was the highest of his career, but he threw it 87% of the time. Ernesto throw a slider as his #2 pitch. Frieri is a one dimensional pitcher with a huge FB rate, poor command, and a HR problem. His lack of success against righties isn’t good for his long term job security. Overall, he’s a tough swing for me in 2014. I just see too many factors working against his success, even with an improved 1st pitch strike %. Frieri needs to find a 2nd pitch he can trust.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/26/201 ... K5TcJ.dpuf

Here's a link to reach all the pitching team pages:

https://www.scoutpro.com/2014-fantasy-baseball-pitchers

[CC's Desperados]

Since their 116-win season in 2001, the Seattle Mariners have missed the playoffs for 12 consecutive seasons. They have had some good seasons during that time period (won 93 games in 2002 and 2003), but they have also had some less than spectacular seasons (5 years with 60 some odd wins). One reason why they have been struggling as of late is their punchless offense, which has averaged only 3.6 runs per game over the past 5 years. Seattle will be looking to get a boost from some of their offseason acquisitions, including the $240 million dollar man Robinson Cano.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Seattle Mariners batters!

To give you an idea of what my player profiles are like, here is my analysis of Kyle Seager:

Seager played real well over the first 4 months of the year (.298 with 17 HR’s and 50 RBI), but he died over the last 2 months of the year (.181 with 5 HR’s and 19 RBI). His batting average has been short against lefties over the past 2 years (.237 in 2012 and .235 in 2013), but he hit 17 HR’s in 453 at bats. His K rate (17.6%) declined slightly, while his walk rate (9.8%) was a career high. Kyle’s power growth is a good sign and his approach at the plate and his minor league resume suggests upside in batting average down the road. Kyle will even chip in with possible double digit steals. Seager hit .304 with a .374 OB % while batting 2nd. His batting average has .300 upside with 20 HR power and double digit speed.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/27/201 ... beAK7.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

Even though Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma combined for a 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 2013, the Mariners still finished 26th overall in MLB in ERA (4.31). While they have a true ace in King Felix, the success of this staff will hinge on the development of Taijuan Walker and James Paxton. Will those young guns factor into your fantasy baseball plans in 2014?

Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Seattle Mariners pitching staff!

To give you a preview of my player profiles, here is my breakdown of Tom Wilhelmsen:

I’m sorry, but I just can’t see Danny Farquhar as the closer for the Mariners. Wilhelmsen was a complete train wreck after May 1st last season (6.42 ERA with 25 walks and 26 K’s over his last 35 innings in the majors). Prior to June, Tom was a very stable closer (12 SV’s and 2 runs allowed in 24 innings with 17 K’s). Maybe the early decline in his K rate (6.9) should have been a sign of future failure, but his velocity (AFB – 96.2) was in line with 2012). It looked like he just lost his confidence in June when he allowed 13 runs over a 9-game stretch (8 innings). Wilhelmsen started to rebound in late June and early July (5.7 shutout innings with no walks and 4 K’s). He even converted 8 of 9 saves in July while allowing 4 runs in 12.3 innings. The nail in his coffin happened on August 1st, when he was drilled for 4 runs that earned him a ticket to AAA. Overall, his K rate (5.0) spiked upward from 3.3 in 2012, while his K rate (6.9) plummeted. Tom dominated RH batters (.144) all season, but he couldn’t throw a strike to a lefty (21 walks in 110 at bats with only 18 K’s). His #2 pitch is a curveball, followed by a changeup. Overall, he could throw first pitch strikes, which led to less value in his curveball (especially against LH batters). Wilhelmsen doesn’t have a great resume, so he has a lot to prove in spring training. With an offseason to clear his head, I expect him to regain his previous form.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/28/201 ... tufCj.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

After making the playoffs for 3 straight seasons (2010-2012), the Rangers missed out on the postseason in 2013. They scored only 730 runs, which was their lowest run total since 1995. Based on some of their offseason acquisitions (Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo), I think it’s safe to say they wanted to add some additional firepower to their lineup for the 2014 season.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Texas Rangers batters!

If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of Adrian Beltre:

Beltre is on the path to reach the Hall of Fame. He only needs 574 hits to reach 3000. Adrian has hit 30+ HR’s in each of his last 3 seasons. Additionally, he has hit 20 or more HR’s 11 times during his career and has 401 RBI over the last 4 seasons. His K rate (11.3%) was his 2nd lowest of his career and it is in an elite area for a power hitter. His walk rate (7.3%) was his highest since 2004, but it has been short during his entire career. Beltre had plus RBI chances (451) in 2013, but was only league average driving in runs (15%). He has been slightly better over his entire career (16%), but this number falls short of the top run producers in the game. Adrian has hit over .300 against both RH (.316) and LH (.310) pitching over the past 4 years. Beltre is a rock solid major league bat with a .300, 30/100 skill set. His speed looks like a thing of the past, but he may have the most RBI chances of his career in 2014.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/29/201 ... FBZvl.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

I think it’s safe to say that the Rangers pitching staff was slightly affected by injuries in 2013. Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis all missed most of or the entire season. Adding these guys to a staff led by ace Yu Darvish should definitely help them out this season, but they will still have to figure out how to beat the A’s if they’re going to win the AL West.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Rangers starting rotation and bullpen!

If you want to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my breakdown of Derek Holland:

The Rangers caught a tough break when Holland suffered a left knee injury in January. He had microfracture surgery and the Rangers are hoping to have him back mid season. Last year, Derek had his best season in the majors. His command (2.7) was in line with 2012 and he showed growth in his K rate (8.0). Best of all was his improvement in limiting HR’s (0.8 per 9 innings – lowest of his career). As well as he pitched, he didn’t dominate either RH (.258) or LH (.265) batters. After 27 starts last season, Holland had a 2.95 ERA and allowed 2 runs or less in 15 games. He started to allow more walks in July through his first start in September (32 in 72.7 innings – 4.0 walk rate). His declining command led to a bad end to the year, allowing 18 runs and 39 base runners over 19.3 innings – 8.38 ERA. His AFB (93.6) was stronger than 2012. Derek’s slider gained value at the expense of his curveball. Additionally, he also threw a solid changeup. Batters crushed his sinker (.354 – 724 pitches), while they only hit .158 against his slider (758 pitches). Holland has a nice developing arm, but his two seam fastball needs to make a step forward. Anyone that has microfracture surgery scares me as the time table to return is always slow. Possible upside after the All Star break, but he could be a tough carry if there is any negative news this spring

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/30/201 ... 7QhYG.dpuf

[JohnP]

Shawn.....great work as always. I am really enjoying reading your analysis. Bring back a couple of your "roster construction" articles - those are classics!

[CC's Desperados]

Shawn.....great work as always. I am really enjoying reading your analysis. Bring back a couple of your "roster construction" articles - those are classics!

I'll dig up the strategy articles over the last couple of weeks of February.

[CC's Desperados]

Despite having one of the lowest payrolls in MLB, the Oakland Athletics continue to have success. They might not have a ton of big names stars like the Angels or Yankees, but you can’t argue with their results over the past two seasons. After checking out the hitting stats from last year, it was hard to find a category with the A’s not in the top 5 overall (runs, doubles, HR’s, SLG %, OBP to name a few).

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Oakland A’s batters!

To give you a preview of my player profiles, here is my breakdown of Yoenis Cespedes:

For the 2nd straight season, Yoenis missed time due to multiple injuries. He suffered a thumb injury in April, which cost him 14 games. He had a slight hamstring injury in June, a slight wrist injury in July, and a shoulder injury in September. His approach at the plate regressed in 2013 as his K rate (23.8%) spiked upward and his walk rate (6.5%) regressed. His final results were in line with his 2012 season, with the exception of a huge decline in batting average and a weaker success rate stealing bases. Cespedes held his own against lefties (.280 with 11 HR’s in 161 at bats), but he regressed against righties (.223 – 24.6% K rate). He had a jump in his FB rate (45.6%), but his HR/FB rate (14.4%) declined slightly. It looks like pitchers have the most success against him with sliders. Last year, Yoenis struck out 35 times in 121 plate appearance against the slider with 6 HR’s. Cespedes has a 30/100 skill set if he could ever stay healthy for a full season. His batting average has risk if he is going to have a swing for the fences type of approach at the plate. I would consider his speed a bonus at this point of his career.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/31/201 ... 1j35h.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

When you go 96-66 like the Oakland Athletics did in 2013, chances are you’re going to have a pretty solid pitching staff. That was indeed the case as they finished 7th in MLB in ERA (3.56), 3rd in WHIP (1.22) and 4th in BAA (.242). Bartolo Colon came up huge for them, finishing with an 18-6 record, 2.65 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. When you’re on a 1-year contract like Colon was, that’s a good way to ensure yourself of getting another contract (signed a 2-year, $20 million deal with the Mets in the offseason). While the A’s may not have a true ace this season, they do have plenty of major league ready starting pitching depth.

Click here to check out my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Oakland A’s pitching staff!

If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my breakdown of A’s SP Scott Kazmir:

Kazmir was banished from baseball in 2011 after struggling in back to back seasons with the Angels. His lack of success was somewhat due to a bad back. After 5 disaster starts at AAA in 2011 (0-5 with a 17.02 ERA), Scott found himself trying to rebuild his career in the Independent league in 2012 where his results were less than attractive over 14 starts (5.34 ERA with 33 walks in 64 innings). The Indians signed him to a minor league deal in December of 2012. Kazmir pitched well during spring training, but he developed an abdomen injury at the end of March which cost him the first 20 days of the season. Scott was bombed in his first start with the Indians (6 runs and 11 base runners in 3.3 innings), but he responded with 3 straight solid outings highlighted by a 10 K game on May 9th. Overall, Kazmir allowed 2 runs or less in 16 or his 29 starts. In September, he showed electric upside when he posted three 10 or more K games. Scott was very good against lefties (.226), however, he allowed 41 of his 47 walks to RH batters and they hit .275 against him with 16 HR’s in 451 at bats. Kazmir finished the year with a plus K rate (9.2) and solid command (2.7). His AFB (92.5) was also his highest since his 2005 season. He threw a changeup as his 2nd best pitch, followed by a slider and a show me cutter. His HR/FB rate (11.6%) was higher than his best years in Tampa, but he did change his skill set, evidenced by him allowing the least amount of fly balls in his career (36% – 42.1% career average). His success led him to signing a 2-year, $22 million contract with the A’s. Kazmir has upside in 2014, but he needs to improve against RH batters. His K rate and command give him a chance at a 3.50 ERA or less with 200 K upside and 30 starts.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/01/201 ... DKExq.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

The Braves have made the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, but they have basically nothing to show for it (1-4 record in the postseason). Their bats went to sleep in the NLDS last season against the Dodgers, scoring only 13 runs en route to losing the series in 4 games. Atlanta sure can hit the ball out of the park (181 HR’s in 2013), but man do they strike out a ton. To give some perspective on that, Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton combined for 322 K’s and a .181 batting average last season. To make it even worse for Braves fans, they were the two highest paid players on the team (over $26 million between the two).

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Atlanta Braves batters!

If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of Justin Upton:

Justin’s skill set regressed in 2013 due to a huge spike in his K rate (25.0% – 19.3% in 2012 and 18.7% in 2011). However, his walk rate (11.7%) was his highest since 2008. Last year, he battled multiple minor injuries (hand, back, hamstring, and calf). Upton was crushing the ball in April (12 HR’s), but his increased power led to a quest to hit more HR’s by opening up his swing (27.6% K rate in April and May). Last year, he hit 18 of his 27 HR’s to left field. When Justin is at his best, he hits the ball to right center with power. He wasn’t dominant against RH (.262) or LH (.268) pitching. However, his approach was much stronger against lefties (36 walk – 21.9% walk rate with 10 HR’s in 127 at bats). Upton only had value in 2 months in 2013 (April – .298 with 12 HR’s and 19 RBI and August – .298 with 8 HR’s and 16 RBI). Overall, he has been a below average run producer (14%) during his career. His HR/FB rate (17.9%) was the 2nd highest of his career. Upton was a great hitter against fastballs in 2011 (.311 with 26 doubles and 19 HR’s in 344 at bats), but he really struggled with the heat in 2013 (.261 with 123 HR’s and 98 K’s in 330 at bats). Justin is an upside player coming off of a disappointing season. His rise in his K rate hurts his upside in batting average. Despite all of that, Upton is just reaching the prime of his career. He has 30+ HR upside with 20 SB ability. Justin has never been a driven player, so he may never be elite. He has 2 years to pad his resume for a monster contract. Breakout candidate in 2014.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/02/201 ... Jw48S.dpuf

[Edwards Kings]

You just knew the Braves report would generate a response from me. The analysis is bang on, but I have a few less-than-objective observations.

The Braves really have no one else than Uggla at second base, and if they did, it would probably be Pena stealing the AB's. La Stella is one of those dirt players everyone likes...no power, a handful of SB and good AB's (yes, that means he will take a walk), but is not really an upgrade defensively. I think the Braves will (again) give Uggla every chance. Will Uggla hit .280? No, but he will be on base, still has those HR's generated from those Popeye arms, and no one seems to work harder. A .240 BA with 20-25 HR is VERY doable for Uggla though he will still strike out a third of time. He kind of reminds me of those catchers that can catch fire at least one year in their mid-30's. Here is a little hint...if someone like Gamel makes the team, then Pena is not necessarily needed to back up Chris Johnson and instead is being set up to replace Uggla. Just a thought.

On BJ Upton and definitely in the "news or noise" category, he has supposidely simplified his swing to similar to the one he broke in with. Without the moving parts (may have the uggliest swing in baseball), you are looking going back perhaps to the .245, with 25 HR power, plus stolen bases (30+), and also striking out a third of the time. In short, you are going to catch a breeze no matter the weather conditions at the Ted. Will not hit up in the line-up so more than 70/70 RBI's/Runs would be gravy.

I was all wet about Gattis last year and may be again, but I just do not see him as the full-time catcher. Big swing, with big holes, and is not a polished catcher (to say the least) and the Braves do value up-the middle defense. I expect to see more Christian Bethancourt when all is said and done, who is a vastly superior catcher which is what the Braves young pitchers need.

The Braves bullpen is fine, even after Kimbrell and Walden. Carpenter, Varvaro, and Avilan don't give up many hits or walks and Venters should be back mid-year. The starters will need them without a clear ace, though I still think Minor is the Man. He really took a step forward last year with his control (his calling card in the minors) which made his "stuff" that much better. He could easily crack 200 K's this year, but 180 is a lock. Less than 30 pitchers did 180+ K's last year and Minor was in the top 10 for control for those that did.

Starting Pitcher Trends
Minor - Up
Medlen - Down because to me he is not "Ace" material and best left in the 175-180 IP range in the middle of the rotation.
Teheran - Up as another guy who made great strides. No smoke and mirrors here.
Beachy - no where to go but "Up".
Wood - Up and this is the year to get him before the arm problems begin.
Floyd - No telling what to expect until next year. Could rebuild value, but won't happen until September.

The fans eye view.

[Edwards Kings]

Oh, and one more thing. Freddie Freeman could hit 35 HR in any give season (and given a few lucky breezes), but I do not think that will be his norm unless he is willing to give up a little BA. Some guys seem to love HR and some guys seem to love to hit and let the HR fall where they may. I think Freeman loves to hit. Give or take, Freeman is a 25 HR guy, which is not bad especially with all of his other positives.

[CC's Desperados]

The Braves pitching staff put together quite a season in 2013 on their way to an NL East division championship. Just a few of their statistical accomplishments included finishing 1st in MLB in ERA (3.18), 2nd in WHIP (1.20) and 6th in BAA (.244). Given those stats, it’s not surprising that they gave up the least amount of runs (548) and allowed the 2nd least amount of walks (409) as well.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Atlanta Braves pitchers!

Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Check out my analysis of Julio Teheran:

It’s pretty easy to see why the top 3 starters for the Braves had success last season. All three pitchers threw a high % of first pitch strikes. Teheran had better command (2.2) than he did during his minor league career (2.7), which led to a solid K rate (8.2). Julio didn’t pitch well in his first 3 starts (13 runs and 28 base runners in 17 innings with 5 HR’s allowed). After 6 strong starts, his upside started to shine through when he struck out 20 batters over 2 starts (14.7 innings). On the year, he allowed 2 runs or less in 16 of his 30 starts. Teheran started to fade over his last 7 starts, allowing 4 runs in 4 starts. Over a 20 start span from mid April to mid August, he only walked more than 2 batters once. Julio was dominant against RH batters (.204), but has weakness against lefties at this point of his career (.289 with a .483 SLG %). His AFB was 91.5, and his #2 pitch was a slider, followed by a curveball and an occasional changeup. His changeup was expected to be a plus pitch, but he didn’t trust it last season. Last year, righties couldn’t touch his four seam fastball (.174), but it had a lot less value against LH batters (.329 with a .504 SLG %). His step forward in 2013 was due to the huge improvement of his slider. Teheran was expected to have the best changeup in the Braves system, so he could have electric upside if that pitch gains value in 2014. Julio is the Braves future ace with Cy Young upside. His K rate will spike dramatically when his changeup becomes a plus pitch.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/03/201 ... vjEbJ.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

If there is one certainty in life, using productive to describe the 2013 Miami Marlins offense is something you will never, ever do. They finished last in MLB in a number of offensive categories, including:

- Runs (513)
- Home runs (95)
- Batting Average (.231)
- OBP (.293)
- Slugging % (.335)

Luckily for them, the front end of their pitching staff, led by José Fernandez, has some talent and upside. In the end, it’s probably going to be another long year in South Beach for the Marlins (and the 100 fans that go to each home game).

Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Miami Marlins batters!

If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of Giancarlo Stanton:

Stanton had a down year due to multiple injuries. He suffered a minor shoulder injury in mid April, a bad hamstring injury in late April, and a minor ankle injury in early September. His K rate (27.8%) has been high during his entire major league career, while his walk rate (14.7%) made a move into an elite area (he was only intentionally walked 5 times in 2013). Giancarlo was a better hitter against LH pitching (.278 with .593 SLG %). Last year, he only hit over .250 in one month (June – .296). Stanton is one of the best pure power hitters in the game, but has struggled to stay healthy over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins don’t have a great supporting cast around him, but it should be better in 2014. He has 50 HR upside with downside risk in batting average. His price point tends to be high, which hurts a fantasy owner in a couple of categories unless he has a massive breakout season. I expect him to have his best season in the majors with 40+ HR’s and he will approach 100 RBI helped by Yelich hitting in front of him.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/04/201 ... d2jiX.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

After going over the less than spectacular Miami Marlins batters yesterday, it’s time to move on to their pitching staff. Overall, they weren’t too bad in 2013, finishing 7th in the NL in ERA (3.71). They also allowed the 3rd lowest amount of HR’s, however, walks were an issue (gave up the 2nd most in the NL). Due to this, the Marlins staff only compiled 1,177 K’s, good for 24th in MLB.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball analysis of the Miami Marlins pitching staff!

If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of Steve Cishek:

Cishek grew up about 10 miles from my house, but I never followed his high school or college career as I was too wrapped up in major league baseball. Last year, I owned him in a couple of spots and thought he was going to lose the closing job over the first 6 weeks of the season. Steve allowed runs in 6 of his first 11 appearance, which led to a 5.73 ERA and 3 losses. On June 4th, Cishek only had 5 saves with 4 losses and 2 blown saves. His ERA was improving, and he found his stride on June 8th. He didn’t allow a walk in 13 straight games or a run in 17 outings, which led to 12 saves and 2 wins in 36 days. Over the last 4 months of the year, Steve had a 1.33 ERA with 55 K’s and 29 SV’s in 47.3 innings. Cishek dominated RH batters (.185) with excellent command. He allowed 16 of his 22 walks to LH batters, but they only hit .235 against him. His AFB (92.3) was in line with his resume, and his #2 pitch is a plus slider (followed by a low level changeup). Steve is a GB pitcher (53.1%) with a low career HR/FB rate (4.7%). His command (2.8) made a nice step forward and his K rate (9.6) matched his career high. Cishek has pitched very well during his 3 seasons with Miami. His command is his key going forward if he wants to keep the closing job. Overall, his ability to get ground balls and restrict HR’s will limit his downside risk. 40 save upside if he repeats his walk rate.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/05/201 ... 8kwuX.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

The New York Mets didn’t supply their fans with much excitement during the 2013 season. Outside of Matt Harvey (who ended up hurting his elbow and having Tommy John surgery), it was a pretty dull year. When you take a look at some of their offensive numbers, it all makes sense. They ranked 25th or lower in MLB in on-base percentage, batting average and slugging percentage. Not surprisingly, they only scored 619 runs, good for 23th in MLB. With Harvey out for the entire 2014 season, an 8th straight season without postseason baseball may be on the horizon.

Click here to read my 2014 player profiles of the New York Mets batters!

Want to see a preview of my fantasy baseball player profiles? Check out my analysis of David Wright:

The elite David Wright appeared again in 2013. His K rate (16.1%) ranked near his career best and his walk rate (11.2%) remains strong. It appears David solved his swing and miss problem that he struggled with from 2009 to 2011. His season was cut short when he suffered a bad hamstring injury early in August, which cost him 7 weeks of the season. Wright had success against both RH (.296) and LH (.336) pitching. He had a smokin .605 SLG % vs. LH pitching, while most of his power came on the road (12 HR’s). Wright crushed two seam fastballs last year (.439 with a .673 SLG %). He has struggled with injuries in 2 of the last 3 seasons, which will hurt his chances to get 3000 hits (1558 in his career at age 30). His low stats total from 2013 due to an injury will discount his draft value in 2014. If he played in 155 games last year, he would have finished with 25 HR’s, 80 RBI, and 24 SB’s. Wright is an excellent 5 category hitter that has upside across the board with better overall play by his supporting cast. The correction in his K rate makes him a lockdown .300 hitter going forward.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/06/201 ... 6eUSE.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

As I mentioned yesterday, the only excitement the Mets provided their fans in 2013 was courtesy of the right arm of Matt Harvey. Unfortunately, that ended on a sour note in September when he went down with an elbow injury (ended up having Tommy John surgery). With Matt likely out for the entire 2014 season, who is going to step up and pick up the slack for the Mets? Will it be the youngster Zack Wheeler, or does the 40-year old Bartolo Colon have another All-Star caliber season in him?

Click here to read my fantasy baseball analysis of the Mets pitching staff!

If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my breakdown of Jonathon Niese:

Niese struggled through the first 2+ months of the season (4.32 ERA) due to a bum left shoulder. He went on the DL in mid June with a partially torn rotator cuff that didn’t require surgery. This led to a poor walk rate (3.9) and weak K rate (5.7). Jon was able to make it back to the majors in August. Over his last 10 starts, he had a 3.00 ERA with a solid K rate (7.6) and improved command (2.0). His 2nd half success was in line with his solid 2012 season. Overall, his command (3.0) regressed and his K rate (6.6) has declined over the last 2 years. His AFB (90.2) was only slightly lower than his previous 2 years. He throws a cutter as his #2 pitch, followed by a solid curveball and improving changeup. Most of his struggles were against RH batters (.294). Niese was a much better pitcher at home (2.70 ERA – 5.27 ERA on the road). His resume isn’t the greatest (3.99 ERA and 1.376 WHIP), but he is a pitcher that has improved when healthy over the last 2 years. The key to his success is his walk rate. Possible 3.50 ERA with 150 K’s if he has a clean spring training in 2014.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/08/201 ... EzhMs.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

After making the postseason every year from 2007-2011 (World Series champions in 2008), the Philadelphia Phillies have been heading in the wrong direction over the past two years. From 2004-2012, they scored over 800 runs 5 times. In 2013, they managed only 610, good for 26th in MLB. Heading into the 2014 season, it will be interesting to see if the Phillies decide to be sellers when the trade deadline rolls around in July.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Phillies batters!

If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, check out my analysis of OF Domonic Brown:

Brown had an electric 19 game stretch between May 20th and June 8th where he hit .397 with 18 runs, 12 HR’s, 25 RBI’s, and 5 SB’s over 73 at bats. Over the first 3 months of the year, he hit .274 with 21 HR’s, 57 RBI, and 8 SB’s. His walk rate (7.4%) was shorter than his minor league resume (10.5%), which was due to his approach in May (no walks in 109 at bats with 21 K’s). He showed patience in April and May, so he isn’t just another free swinger with batting average risk. His K rate (18.0%) was about the major league average. Domonic had his most success against RH pitching (.281 with 21 HR’s and 62 RBI), but he had power against lefties (.252 with 6 HR’s and 21 RBI in 147 at bats). His production dropped off the table over the 2nd half of the year (.270 with 4 HR’s and 16 RBI in 141 at bats) due to a concussion in late July and an Achilles injury in August. His HR/FB rate (19.3%) more than doubled from his 2 previous seasons where he had short at bats. Brown’s success driving the ball was due to a change in his grip early in spring training (suggested by Wally Joyner). During his minor league career, Domonic hit .297 with 59 HR’s, 285 RBI’s, and 106 SB’s in 1,994 at bats. He had what appeared to be a 20/20 skill set, but his growth was slow at the major league level. Many will look at his final stats and see a ho-hum 20/80 skill set. Brown showed elite upside with even more underlying speed. His failure late in the year was due to injuries and he even had a slight back issue in April. His only downside is he won’t hit in an ideal part of the batting order, unless the Phillies are willing to bat 3 straight lefties. Brown is a five category player with upside across the board.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/08/201 ... k51Er.dpuf