Even with two front line starting pitchers (Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels), the Phillies staff struggled as a whole in 2013, finishing ranked 25th or lower in ERA, WHIP and BAA. As you might imagine, Lee and Hamels were not the problem, combining for a 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. When pitchers like these guys only have a combined record of 22-22, that’s usually a sign of a lack of run support. That was indeed the case as both Lee and Hamels finished in the bottom 10 in MLB in run support per game (3.29 for Lee and 3.36 for Hamels).
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Phillies pitching staff!
Want to check out a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of closer Jonathan Papelbon:
Papelbon has 286 career saves over the last 8 seasons (36 per year). He has only had one bad season during his career, but he has never posted plus saves in any season. His command (1.6) has been elite in 2 of the last 3 seasons, but his K rate (8.3) made a spike downward. Last year, he only converted 29 of 36 chances. Jonathan didn’t dominate RH (.252) or LH (.241) batters, and pitched poorly in September (5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP). Papelbon no longer has an elite fastball (92.0 – career low). His 2nd best pitch is a split-finger fastball, followed an improving slider. Last year, batters hit .306 against his split-finger fastball. Philly would love to dump him, but he makes too much money. He is a proven closer with a long resume that has upside in K’s if he was ever able to pitch plus innings. His skill set is declining, but he still has enough talent to get the job done. He’s more steady than good and may be an overlooked arm that has a plus year in saves.
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Winter Training
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CC's Desperados
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Re: Winter Training
When you look at the Washington Nationals team batting statistics from the 2013 season, they seem to be around the middle of the pack in almost everything. To give you a few examples, here are some of their stats as a team and where they finished overall in MLB:
- 15th in runs scored (656)
- 13th in slugging percentage (.398)
- 18th in on-base percentage (.313)
- 17th in batting average (.251)
- 16th in OPS (.710)
- 13th in HR’s (161)
While these numbers may not make you jump for joy, the Nats offense has power and some upside in 2014 if Bryce Harper makes a step forward. While I love his passion and intensity, he really needs to stop running into outfield walls. It would be a shame to see a player with his talent struggle with injuries every year, both as a fan of the game and from a fantasy baseball standpoint.
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Nationals batters!
To give you an idea of what my player profiles are like, here is my analysis of Ryan Zimmerman:
When looking at Zimmerman’s career stats, I was wondering if he is on a path to be a Hall of Fame player. He hasn’t been dominant, but his longevity gives him an outside chance at 3,000 hits if he can stay healthy. He has hit 20 or more HR’s 6 times during his career. His two short seasons were due to injuries. Last year, his K rate (21.0%) was a career high and it has declined in each of the last 3 seasons. His walk rate (9.5%) is just above league average. In September, he found his HR stroke (11 HR’s). Ryan hit well at home (.310), but most of his power happened on the road (19 HR’s – .239). During his career, he has been a plus hitter against LH pitching (.310 with a .503 SLG %). His HR/FB rate (17.6%) was a career high last year and he had his 2nd highest rate (16.0%) in 2012. Additionally, his GB rate (44.7%) has been higher than his career average in each of the last 3 seasons. Zimmerman is a professional major league bat that could be an asset in 4 categories, plus he could chip in with a handful of steals. His best season in the majors was 2004 (.292 with 110 R, 33 HR’s and 106 RBI). If Harper stays healthy, Ryan could back draft him to have one of the better seasons of his career. His HR swing is trending upward.
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- 15th in runs scored (656)
- 13th in slugging percentage (.398)
- 18th in on-base percentage (.313)
- 17th in batting average (.251)
- 16th in OPS (.710)
- 13th in HR’s (161)
While these numbers may not make you jump for joy, the Nats offense has power and some upside in 2014 if Bryce Harper makes a step forward. While I love his passion and intensity, he really needs to stop running into outfield walls. It would be a shame to see a player with his talent struggle with injuries every year, both as a fan of the game and from a fantasy baseball standpoint.
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Nationals batters!
To give you an idea of what my player profiles are like, here is my analysis of Ryan Zimmerman:
When looking at Zimmerman’s career stats, I was wondering if he is on a path to be a Hall of Fame player. He hasn’t been dominant, but his longevity gives him an outside chance at 3,000 hits if he can stay healthy. He has hit 20 or more HR’s 6 times during his career. His two short seasons were due to injuries. Last year, his K rate (21.0%) was a career high and it has declined in each of the last 3 seasons. His walk rate (9.5%) is just above league average. In September, he found his HR stroke (11 HR’s). Ryan hit well at home (.310), but most of his power happened on the road (19 HR’s – .239). During his career, he has been a plus hitter against LH pitching (.310 with a .503 SLG %). His HR/FB rate (17.6%) was a career high last year and he had his 2nd highest rate (16.0%) in 2012. Additionally, his GB rate (44.7%) has been higher than his career average in each of the last 3 seasons. Zimmerman is a professional major league bat that could be an asset in 4 categories, plus he could chip in with a handful of steals. His best season in the majors was 2004 (.292 with 110 R, 33 HR’s and 106 RBI). If Harper stays healthy, Ryan could back draft him to have one of the better seasons of his career. His HR swing is trending upward.
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CC's Desperados
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Re: Winter Training
Overall, the stats looked pretty good for the Nationals pitching staff in 2013. They finished ranked in the the top 10 in MLB in a number of categories, including ERA (3.59), quality starts (91) and WHIP (1.23). When you look at the front end of their starting rotation, it’s hard to complain too much with names like Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman. Add Gio Gonzalez to that duo and you have what looks like one of the better starting rotations in all of baseball.
Click here to read my fantasy baseball players profiles of the Nationals starters and relievers!
If you would like to read one of my player profiles, here is my breakdown of Nats closer Rafael Soriano:
Soriano has saved over 40 games in 3 of his last 4 seasons. His command (2.3) was stronger than his last 2 years, but he had a huge drop in his K rate (6.9). Rafael struggled with LH batters (.274). In July and August, Soriano allowed 5 HR’s in 22.7 innings, which led to a 5.56 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He converted 43 of 49 saves. His slider had a huge drop in value (batters hit .297 against it with a .531 SLG %) and he only threw it 15.5% of the time, compared to 40.1% in 2012. His cutter ended up being his #1 pitch, while his AFB (91.5) was a career low. Overall, Soriano looks like a tough swing this year. I don’t like the drop in velocity, I don’t like the decline in the value of his slider, and I don’t like the drop in K rate. Solid resume over the last 5 years and maybe he just wasn’t healthy last season. The Nationals should win plus games, so the closer will have value in 2014.
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Click here to read my fantasy baseball players profiles of the Nationals starters and relievers!
If you would like to read one of my player profiles, here is my breakdown of Nats closer Rafael Soriano:
Soriano has saved over 40 games in 3 of his last 4 seasons. His command (2.3) was stronger than his last 2 years, but he had a huge drop in his K rate (6.9). Rafael struggled with LH batters (.274). In July and August, Soriano allowed 5 HR’s in 22.7 innings, which led to a 5.56 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He converted 43 of 49 saves. His slider had a huge drop in value (batters hit .297 against it with a .531 SLG %) and he only threw it 15.5% of the time, compared to 40.1% in 2012. His cutter ended up being his #1 pitch, while his AFB (91.5) was a career low. Overall, Soriano looks like a tough swing this year. I don’t like the drop in velocity, I don’t like the decline in the value of his slider, and I don’t like the drop in K rate. Solid resume over the last 5 years and maybe he just wasn’t healthy last season. The Nationals should win plus games, so the closer will have value in 2014.
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CC's Desperados
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Re: Winter Training
Whether you blame it on a billy goat, black cat or some guy named Steve, not much has gone right for the Chicago Cubs in a long time. As I’m sure many of you know, they haven’t been to a World Series since 1945 and haven’t won one since 1908. After losing to the Detroit Tigers in the 1945 World Series, they didn’t make another postseason appearance until 1984. Looking over the past few years, it’s unfortunately more of the same news for Cubs fans. With only 127 wins over the past two seasons and a lineup featuring only a few quality major league bats (Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro), it’s hard to imagine a ton of improvement in 2014.
Check out my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Chicago Cubs batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of SS Javier Baez:
I may be a bit ballsy by putting a 21-year old rookie who has never had an at bat above AA as a middle of the order hitter for the Cubs. When the cupboard is empty, it’s time to invest in some new inventory. Baez has the reputation of being a free swinger that can make hard contact with pitches that are off the plate. He is a career .286 hitter in the minors with 53 HR’s, 158 RBI, and 46 SB’s in only 828 at bats. He played great at High A in 2013 (.274 with 17 HR’s, 57 RBI, and 12 SB’s in 299 at bats), but was even better at AA (.294 with 20 HR’s, 54 RBI, and 8 SB’s). His K rate (24.0%) will invite batting average risk as he pushes his way to the majors, and his walk rate (5.9%) is a liability as well. The only skill that Javier lacks is plate discipline. As this point of his career, he has always been better than his competition. When he reaches the majors, he’ll need to be more selective or major league pitchers will never throw him a strike. I think there is no doubt he will play in the majors in 2014. Baez will either force Castro to 2nd base or he will move over to 3B. The Cubs have 3B Kris Bryant on the fast track to the majors as well, so it would make the most sense just to let Javier play SS during his first season. The power is for real, but he can’t make a long term impact without taking more pitches. Baez has shown speed in the minors, but he doesn’t have plus speed.
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Check out my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Chicago Cubs batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of SS Javier Baez:
I may be a bit ballsy by putting a 21-year old rookie who has never had an at bat above AA as a middle of the order hitter for the Cubs. When the cupboard is empty, it’s time to invest in some new inventory. Baez has the reputation of being a free swinger that can make hard contact with pitches that are off the plate. He is a career .286 hitter in the minors with 53 HR’s, 158 RBI, and 46 SB’s in only 828 at bats. He played great at High A in 2013 (.274 with 17 HR’s, 57 RBI, and 12 SB’s in 299 at bats), but was even better at AA (.294 with 20 HR’s, 54 RBI, and 8 SB’s). His K rate (24.0%) will invite batting average risk as he pushes his way to the majors, and his walk rate (5.9%) is a liability as well. The only skill that Javier lacks is plate discipline. As this point of his career, he has always been better than his competition. When he reaches the majors, he’ll need to be more selective or major league pitchers will never throw him a strike. I think there is no doubt he will play in the majors in 2014. Baez will either force Castro to 2nd base or he will move over to 3B. The Cubs have 3B Kris Bryant on the fast track to the majors as well, so it would make the most sense just to let Javier play SS during his first season. The power is for real, but he can’t make a long term impact without taking more pitches. Baez has shown speed in the minors, but he doesn’t have plus speed.
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CC's Desperados
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Re: Winter Training
When looking at the Chicago Cubs 2014 pitching staff, it doesn’t exactly make me feel all warm inside. Their bullpen is lacking the electric arms you need to finish games, and their starting rotation looks average across the board. Even though some of their starters may have upside in certain categories, wins are going to be tough to come by with the Cubs less than potent offense.
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Cubs starters and relievers!
If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my breakdown of Edwin Jackson:
Jackson was a dream crusher last season. He led the NL in losses (18) as his walk rate (3.0) and K rate (6.9) declined. The bottom line here is that he just didn’t throw strikes. Edwin was ripped up by both RH (.270) and LH (.294) batters. Jackson was a disaster in each of the first 3 months (April – 6.27 ERA, May – 5.85 ERA, and June – 5.19). In July, he sucked in fantasy owners with a trap month (1.83 ERA) before delivering the knockout punch in August (5.97 ERA) and September (5.47). His K rate fell off the charts over the last 3 months (5.8) and it declined during each month from April through August. In addition, his AFB (93.1) has declined over the last 2 years. He really only has one other pitch (slider). Edwin tried to throw a show me cutter, plus a no value curveball and changeup. On a positive note, Jackson did allow a career low FB rate (28.4%) with a rising GB rate (51.3%). Edwin has bounced back in the past from a down season, but he has more downside risk than upside. His command is reasonable, but his K rate is what it is. If he is throwing strikes, he can have success. He should pitch better, but he’ll stab you enough times where you can’t stop the bleeding. Let some other owner suffer through his pain.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/13/201 ... 4sTm7.dpuf
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Cubs starters and relievers!
If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my breakdown of Edwin Jackson:
Jackson was a dream crusher last season. He led the NL in losses (18) as his walk rate (3.0) and K rate (6.9) declined. The bottom line here is that he just didn’t throw strikes. Edwin was ripped up by both RH (.270) and LH (.294) batters. Jackson was a disaster in each of the first 3 months (April – 6.27 ERA, May – 5.85 ERA, and June – 5.19). In July, he sucked in fantasy owners with a trap month (1.83 ERA) before delivering the knockout punch in August (5.97 ERA) and September (5.47). His K rate fell off the charts over the last 3 months (5.8) and it declined during each month from April through August. In addition, his AFB (93.1) has declined over the last 2 years. He really only has one other pitch (slider). Edwin tried to throw a show me cutter, plus a no value curveball and changeup. On a positive note, Jackson did allow a career low FB rate (28.4%) with a rising GB rate (51.3%). Edwin has bounced back in the past from a down season, but he has more downside risk than upside. His command is reasonable, but his K rate is what it is. If he is throwing strikes, he can have success. He should pitch better, but he’ll stab you enough times where you can’t stop the bleeding. Let some other owner suffer through his pain.
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CC's Desperados
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Re: Winter Training
When you win 90 games, you probably don’t expect to finish 3rd in your division. But that’s exactly what happened to the Cincinnati Reds in 2013 as the Cardinals and Pirates finished ahead of them in the NL Central standings. Looking at their offseason moves, the Reds lineup will be pretty much the same as it was in 2013. The only change will be in CF with Billy Hamilton taking over for Shin-Soo Choo (signed with the Texas Rangers). Simply put, Hamilton can fly on the base paths. All you have to do is look at his 2012 season in the minors to figure that out. In only 132 games, he had 155 SB’s!
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Reds batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Check out my analysis of Joey Votto:
Joey, Joey; what the hell happened to you when runners were on base last year? Votto has been a 18.6% run producer during his first 6 seasons in the majors, but last year he had a lead off batter RBI rate (12%). Maybe pitchers just didn’t give him anything to hit with runners on base and he expanded the zone trying to drive in runs. Joey led the NL in plate appearance (726), walks (135), and OB % (.435). However, his slugging % (.491) was the lowest of his career. His walk rate (18.6%) was electric, but his K rate (19.0%) was shorter than his last 2 seasons (17.9%). Votto crushed RH pitching (.332 with a .501 SLG %), and even had power against lefties (9 HR’s in 199 at bats). His lack of success hitting HR’s was due a career low FB rate (29.2%), which has now declined in each of the last 4 seasons. His HR/FB rate (18.3%) was in line with his career resume (18.8%). Joey is one of the best hitters in the game. He is coming off of a down year, which makes him a very good buying opportunity. Votto has upside in 4 categories and will even throw in some steals. His power may be limited to 30 HR upside due to swing path. I wonder if Hamilton batting in front of him will create a higher rate of fastballs. I expect his RBI rate to rebound, making him a perfect .300, 30/100 player that will create a nice foundation for any winning team.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/14/201 ... ocmWF.dpuf
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Reds batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Check out my analysis of Joey Votto:
Joey, Joey; what the hell happened to you when runners were on base last year? Votto has been a 18.6% run producer during his first 6 seasons in the majors, but last year he had a lead off batter RBI rate (12%). Maybe pitchers just didn’t give him anything to hit with runners on base and he expanded the zone trying to drive in runs. Joey led the NL in plate appearance (726), walks (135), and OB % (.435). However, his slugging % (.491) was the lowest of his career. His walk rate (18.6%) was electric, but his K rate (19.0%) was shorter than his last 2 seasons (17.9%). Votto crushed RH pitching (.332 with a .501 SLG %), and even had power against lefties (9 HR’s in 199 at bats). His lack of success hitting HR’s was due a career low FB rate (29.2%), which has now declined in each of the last 4 seasons. His HR/FB rate (18.3%) was in line with his career resume (18.8%). Joey is one of the best hitters in the game. He is coming off of a down year, which makes him a very good buying opportunity. Votto has upside in 4 categories and will even throw in some steals. His power may be limited to 30 HR upside due to swing path. I wonder if Hamilton batting in front of him will create a higher rate of fastballs. I expect his RBI rate to rebound, making him a perfect .300, 30/100 player that will create a nice foundation for any winning team.
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CC's Desperados
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Re: Winter Training
When I took a look at the team pitching statistics from the 2013 MLB season, one trend I noticed was the presence of the Cincinnati Reds in what seemed like every category. For example, they finished top 10 in MLB in ERA (3.38), quality starts (94), BAA (.236) and WHIP (1.17). If Johnny Cueto and Tony Cingrani can stay healthy this year, I think they could be even better in 2014.
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Reds starting rotation and bullpen!
To give you a taste of what my player profiles are like, here is my analysis of Homer Bailey:
I’ve kicked Bailey around over the last couple of years and his ticket finally came in 2013. His walk rate (2.3) was identical to his previous 2 seasons, while his K rate (8.6) jumped to a career high. Homer was dominant against RH batters (.205), but he has some work to due against lefties (.264 with 11 HR’s – .421 SLG %). His K rate was over 9.0 for the first 4 months of the season, but it faded in August (7.6) and September (7.4). Bailey had an ERA of 3.11 over his last 17 starts of the year. He appeared to wear down over his last 3 starts, walking 12 batters in 17.7 innings. His AFB (94.1) had a jump in velocity (92.5 in 2012), while his slider is still his #2 pitch (followed by an improving split-finger fastball and a solid curveball). His GB rate (46.1%) is rising. Batters had a tough time hitting all of his pitches (four seam fastball – .229, sinker – .236, slider – .230, curveball – .231, and split – .246). Furthermore, all of his pitches gained value in 2013, expect his slider. Overall, Bailey has an exciting arm, but I’m not sure if his velocity is repeatable. Homer’s fastball was about 1.5 mph less from 2010 to 2012. He has pitched over 200 innings in back to back years, but struggled to stay healthy over the previous 3 seasons. I like the direction of his skill set, but I really need to see him throwing 95 in spring training. I think he has higher upside than Latos and could have a sub 3.00 ERA with some growth against lefties.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/15/201 ... lPRgn.dpuf
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Reds starting rotation and bullpen!
To give you a taste of what my player profiles are like, here is my analysis of Homer Bailey:
I’ve kicked Bailey around over the last couple of years and his ticket finally came in 2013. His walk rate (2.3) was identical to his previous 2 seasons, while his K rate (8.6) jumped to a career high. Homer was dominant against RH batters (.205), but he has some work to due against lefties (.264 with 11 HR’s – .421 SLG %). His K rate was over 9.0 for the first 4 months of the season, but it faded in August (7.6) and September (7.4). Bailey had an ERA of 3.11 over his last 17 starts of the year. He appeared to wear down over his last 3 starts, walking 12 batters in 17.7 innings. His AFB (94.1) had a jump in velocity (92.5 in 2012), while his slider is still his #2 pitch (followed by an improving split-finger fastball and a solid curveball). His GB rate (46.1%) is rising. Batters had a tough time hitting all of his pitches (four seam fastball – .229, sinker – .236, slider – .230, curveball – .231, and split – .246). Furthermore, all of his pitches gained value in 2013, expect his slider. Overall, Bailey has an exciting arm, but I’m not sure if his velocity is repeatable. Homer’s fastball was about 1.5 mph less from 2010 to 2012. He has pitched over 200 innings in back to back years, but struggled to stay healthy over the previous 3 seasons. I like the direction of his skill set, but I really need to see him throwing 95 in spring training. I think he has higher upside than Latos and could have a sub 3.00 ERA with some growth against lefties.
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CC's Desperados
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Re: Winter Training
Here's a short to all the teams for pitching and batting:
https://www.scoutpro.com/2014-fantasy-baseball-pitchers
https://www.scoutpro.com/2014-fantasy-b ... r-profiles
https://www.scoutpro.com/2014-fantasy-baseball-pitchers
https://www.scoutpro.com/2014-fantasy-b ... r-profiles
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CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
2013 was a good year for the Pittsburgh Pirates franchise as they made the playoffs for the first time since 1992. Not only had they not made the playoffs, they didn’t even have a winning season from 1992-2012. Like many teams in the National League, the key to their success was their pitching staff. When you look at their batting stats from 2013, they were pretty much middle of the pack in just about every category (finished 20th in MLB in runs scored). While they only averaged 3.9 runs per game, they only gave up 577 on the season, which was the 2nd lowest total given up in the majors. With the Reds and Cardinals to deal with in the NL Central, do you think the Pirates can make it to the playoffs for a second straight year?
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Pirates batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Check out my analysis of Andrew McCutchen:
McCutchen has had back to back plus seasons. His K rate (15.0%) made a nice step forward, while his walk rate (11.6%) remains an asset. Andrew has only missed 22 games over the last 4 seasons. His SLG % has been over .500 in back to back years, but his power regressed in 2013. His speed is the key to his value. McCutchen is an elite hitter against LH pitching (.388 with a .650 SLG %), and even had more walks (18) than K’s (11) against lefties. He hit over .300 in each of the last 5 months of the year in 2013. After a jump in his HR/FB rate (19.4%), it returned to his career average (12.4%) last year. His LD rate (24.5%) was a career high, a number that has improved during each season in the majors. Andrew is a great fastball hitter (.382 against four seam fastballs and .379 against sinkers). Overall, McCutchen is an elite player with a stable skill set. His next step up will need to come from his supporting cast. The Pirates are on the rise and Andrew is the face of the franchise. He has upside across the board, but my only fear is that he has stayed healthy for 4 straight years.
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Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Pirates batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Check out my analysis of Andrew McCutchen:
McCutchen has had back to back plus seasons. His K rate (15.0%) made a nice step forward, while his walk rate (11.6%) remains an asset. Andrew has only missed 22 games over the last 4 seasons. His SLG % has been over .500 in back to back years, but his power regressed in 2013. His speed is the key to his value. McCutchen is an elite hitter against LH pitching (.388 with a .650 SLG %), and even had more walks (18) than K’s (11) against lefties. He hit over .300 in each of the last 5 months of the year in 2013. After a jump in his HR/FB rate (19.4%), it returned to his career average (12.4%) last year. His LD rate (24.5%) was a career high, a number that has improved during each season in the majors. Andrew is a great fastball hitter (.382 against four seam fastballs and .379 against sinkers). Overall, McCutchen is an elite player with a stable skill set. His next step up will need to come from his supporting cast. The Pirates are on the rise and Andrew is the face of the franchise. He has upside across the board, but my only fear is that he has stayed healthy for 4 straight years.
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CC's Desperados
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Re: Winter Training
As I mentioned yesterday, the Pirates return to the playoffs in 2013 was fueled by a strong pitching staff that finished 3rd in MLB in ERA (3.26). Having increased their win totals from 72 to 79 to 94 over the past 3 seasons, it comes as no surprise that their pitching has been trending upward as well. To further my point, they gave up the least amount of HR’s (101) in the big leagues and ended up ranked 7th overall in WHIP (1.23) last season.
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers!
If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of Pirates closer Jason Grilli:
Grilli had no real experience closing games (7 career saves) with poor command (3.8). Over the first 2 months of the season, Jason was one of the best closers in the game (22 SV’s and 1.09 ERA). His K rate (13.3) was elite and it was almost the same as his breakthrough season in 2012 (13.8). Furthermore, his walk rate (2.3) was a career low and it made a huge step forward. Grilli threw the most overall strikes of his career (68%) and his first pitch strike % had some growth as well. Over the first 3 months of the year, he had 59 K’s in 36.7 innings with only 7 walks. Jason had 2 bad outings in July, with the last one resulting in a forearm injury that ended up costing him 5 weeks of the season. Grilli was dominant against RH batters (.188 with a .277 SLG %). His AFB (93.4) has been above his career average over the last 2 seasons, but he really only throws a slider as his second pitch. His velocity was down in September when he returned from his injury, but it returned in October for the playoffs. Overall, Grilli proved he was more than capable of pitching in the 9th inning. His improved command gives him elite upside in K’s. The Pirates don’t have an explosive offense, so he should get plenty of save chances. His two negatives are his age and his short resume.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/17/201 ... rVTU8.dpuf
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers!
If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of Pirates closer Jason Grilli:
Grilli had no real experience closing games (7 career saves) with poor command (3.8). Over the first 2 months of the season, Jason was one of the best closers in the game (22 SV’s and 1.09 ERA). His K rate (13.3) was elite and it was almost the same as his breakthrough season in 2012 (13.8). Furthermore, his walk rate (2.3) was a career low and it made a huge step forward. Grilli threw the most overall strikes of his career (68%) and his first pitch strike % had some growth as well. Over the first 3 months of the year, he had 59 K’s in 36.7 innings with only 7 walks. Jason had 2 bad outings in July, with the last one resulting in a forearm injury that ended up costing him 5 weeks of the season. Grilli was dominant against RH batters (.188 with a .277 SLG %). His AFB (93.4) has been above his career average over the last 2 seasons, but he really only throws a slider as his second pitch. His velocity was down in September when he returned from his injury, but it returned in October for the playoffs. Overall, Grilli proved he was more than capable of pitching in the 9th inning. His improved command gives him elite upside in K’s. The Pirates don’t have an explosive offense, so he should get plenty of save chances. His two negatives are his age and his short resume.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/17/201 ... rVTU8.dpuf
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CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
Simply put, the St. Louis Cardinals are one of the best teams in baseball. All you have to do is look at their results over the last 14 seasons for this to become very obvious. To put it into perspective, they have averaged 91 wins per season during that period, won 2 World Series, made 1o postseason appearances (7 NL Central division titles) and had only one losing season. If that’s not a model of consistency, then I have no idea what is. 2014 should be more of the same for the Cardinals as they eye their 12th World Series title.
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Cardinals batters!
Would you like to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is what I have to say about 1B Allen Craig and OF Matt Holliday:
Allen Craig
Craig will move to the outfield with Adams taking over at first base. He has had an elite RBI rate (22.0%) during his career and it was even better last year (24.0%) despite a short HR total (13). His K rate (17.8%) is just above the league average, while his walk rate (7.1%) is a notch below the league average. He missed the last 3+ weeks of the season with a foot injury. Allen hit better against RH pitching (.327), but he had more power against lefties (6 HR’s in 126 at bats). From May to August, he hit .331 with 13 HR’s and 78 RBI’s. He had a plus LD rate (26.9%), which led to a low FB rate (28.1%) and a 50% drop in his HR/FB rate (11.2% – career low). Craig is a career .300 hitter in the majors, but he hasn’t played over 134 games in any season. The move to the outfield will invite injury risk for him. His AVH (1.450) had a big regression, so his upside in power is limited. I love his RBI rate, but I hate the move to the outfield. Solid major league bat that will see time on the DL.
Matt Holliday
Holliday has hit 20 or more HR’s in 8 straight seasons and has 5 seasons with more than 100 RBI’s. Last year, he missed a couple of weeks of the season with a hamstring injury, plus he dealt with a back and an ankle injury. His K rate (14.3%) was much lower than the previous 2 seasons (18.0% in 2011 and 19.2% in 2012), while his walk rate (11.5%) remains in a good area. Matt played his best ball over the last 2 months of the season (.346 with 9 HR’s and 44 RBI’s in 185 at bats). He had an elite RBI rate (20%) and his R % (46%) was at the top of the chart. Additionally, he had almost the same success against RH (.301) and LH (.298) batters, but struggled to hit HR’s against lefties (1 HR in 121 at bats). His power has declined over the last 3 seasons due a short FB rate (33.5% in 2011, 35.0% in 2012, and 33.6% in 2013). Overall, Holliday is a rock solid .300 hitter with 25+ HR power. The Cardinals lineup gives him upside in runs and RBI. However, his speed isn’t really a part of the equation any more. His lack of at bats, lack of HR’s, and lack of RBI chances will lead to him being somewhat overlooked on draft day.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/18/201 ... 5BpP0.dpuf
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Cardinals batters!
Would you like to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is what I have to say about 1B Allen Craig and OF Matt Holliday:
Allen Craig
Craig will move to the outfield with Adams taking over at first base. He has had an elite RBI rate (22.0%) during his career and it was even better last year (24.0%) despite a short HR total (13). His K rate (17.8%) is just above the league average, while his walk rate (7.1%) is a notch below the league average. He missed the last 3+ weeks of the season with a foot injury. Allen hit better against RH pitching (.327), but he had more power against lefties (6 HR’s in 126 at bats). From May to August, he hit .331 with 13 HR’s and 78 RBI’s. He had a plus LD rate (26.9%), which led to a low FB rate (28.1%) and a 50% drop in his HR/FB rate (11.2% – career low). Craig is a career .300 hitter in the majors, but he hasn’t played over 134 games in any season. The move to the outfield will invite injury risk for him. His AVH (1.450) had a big regression, so his upside in power is limited. I love his RBI rate, but I hate the move to the outfield. Solid major league bat that will see time on the DL.
Matt Holliday
Holliday has hit 20 or more HR’s in 8 straight seasons and has 5 seasons with more than 100 RBI’s. Last year, he missed a couple of weeks of the season with a hamstring injury, plus he dealt with a back and an ankle injury. His K rate (14.3%) was much lower than the previous 2 seasons (18.0% in 2011 and 19.2% in 2012), while his walk rate (11.5%) remains in a good area. Matt played his best ball over the last 2 months of the season (.346 with 9 HR’s and 44 RBI’s in 185 at bats). He had an elite RBI rate (20%) and his R % (46%) was at the top of the chart. Additionally, he had almost the same success against RH (.301) and LH (.298) batters, but struggled to hit HR’s against lefties (1 HR in 121 at bats). His power has declined over the last 3 seasons due a short FB rate (33.5% in 2011, 35.0% in 2012, and 33.6% in 2013). Overall, Holliday is a rock solid .300 hitter with 25+ HR power. The Cardinals lineup gives him upside in runs and RBI. However, his speed isn’t really a part of the equation any more. His lack of at bats, lack of HR’s, and lack of RBI chances will lead to him being somewhat overlooked on draft day.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/18/201 ... 5BpP0.dpuf
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CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
The Cardinals young, exciting pitching staff (average age in 2013 was 26.9) put together quite a season last year, allowing only 596 runs with a 3.42 ERA (ranked 5th in MLB in both categories). Not only was that the lowest amount of runs they have given up since 1985, they only gave up 112 HR’s on the year. Couple this with their top notch offense and it’s not surprising that they had a +187 run differential in 2013.
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the St. Louis Cardinals pitchers!
If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of Adam Wainwright:
Wainwright returned to his prior Tommy John surgery form in 2013, leading the NL in wins (19), starts (34), shutouts (2) and innings pitched (241.7). He also had the best walk rate (1.3) of his career and his K rate (8.2) was in line with his best seasons. Adam only walked 10 RH batters in 457 at bats, while pitching his best ball over the first 3 months of the year (2.22 ERA with only 12 walks in 124.7 innings). Wainwright started to fade in July (3.77 ERA) before getting drilled in back to back starts against the Reds in late August and early September (15 runs and 21 base runners in 8 innings). Adam was able to right the ship over his last 5 starts of the year (4-0 with a 1.80 ERA), plus he pitched well in the playoffs (1.56 ERA) before fading in the World Series (0-2 with a 4.50 ERA). All in all, he pitched 276.7 innings. His AFB (91.1) was in line with his 2009 and 2010 season. He now throws a cutter as his #2 pitch, followed closely by a plus curveball and occasional changeup. Wainwright continues to be a GB pitcher (49.1%). He is coming off of a huge innings season, but he has elite talent with improving command. He is one of the best bets in the game to win close to 20 games. With a little better 2nd half, he would have been even better. Solid fantasy ace who makes up for his less than elite K rate by volume of innings.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/19/201 ... r0dAV.dpuf
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the St. Louis Cardinals pitchers!
If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of Adam Wainwright:
Wainwright returned to his prior Tommy John surgery form in 2013, leading the NL in wins (19), starts (34), shutouts (2) and innings pitched (241.7). He also had the best walk rate (1.3) of his career and his K rate (8.2) was in line with his best seasons. Adam only walked 10 RH batters in 457 at bats, while pitching his best ball over the first 3 months of the year (2.22 ERA with only 12 walks in 124.7 innings). Wainwright started to fade in July (3.77 ERA) before getting drilled in back to back starts against the Reds in late August and early September (15 runs and 21 base runners in 8 innings). Adam was able to right the ship over his last 5 starts of the year (4-0 with a 1.80 ERA), plus he pitched well in the playoffs (1.56 ERA) before fading in the World Series (0-2 with a 4.50 ERA). All in all, he pitched 276.7 innings. His AFB (91.1) was in line with his 2009 and 2010 season. He now throws a cutter as his #2 pitch, followed closely by a plus curveball and occasional changeup. Wainwright continues to be a GB pitcher (49.1%). He is coming off of a huge innings season, but he has elite talent with improving command. He is one of the best bets in the game to win close to 20 games. With a little better 2nd half, he would have been even better. Solid fantasy ace who makes up for his less than elite K rate by volume of innings.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/19/201 ... r0dAV.dpuf
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CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
After winning 96 games in 2011, the Milwaukee Brewers have been on a negative progression over the past 2 seasons, winning 83 games in 2012 and only 74 in 2013. Their run production dropped off a ton last year as they scored only 640 runs (138 less than their 2012 total). While the numbers may not be pretty, this offense has a chance to be much better if Ryan Braun can play at a high level.
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Milwaukee Brewers batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of Jean Segura and Jonathan Lucroy:
Jean Segura - Segura was one player I misread last season. Jean ended up being a difference maker from a middle infield position. He was a complete beast over the first 3 months of the year (.327 with 11 HR’s, 32 RBI’s, and 24 SB’s). Over the 2nd half of the year, his play declined dramatically (.255 with 1 HR and 17 RBI’s). However, his speed remained intact (20 SB’s). Segura was a very good against LH batters (.317 with a .507 SLG %), and he also hit well against righties (.287). His K rate (13.5%) is in a good area, but he doesn’t take many walks (4.0%). Jean missed the last couple weeks of the season with a hamstring injury. Segura has been a high GB hitter (58.7%) early in his career with a short FB rate (23.3%). He was a .313 hitter in the minors with 26 HR’s, 207 RBI’s, and 139 SB’s in 1,570 at bats. Jean really doesn’t have the right skill set to bat lead off, but he is the best option the Brewers have. Overall, Segura is a lot stronger than many fantasy players think. He has enough size to be a 20+ HR hitter down the road and has already shown he has 40 SB ability (which was supported by his minor league resume). He has the type of skill set that sets up well when building a fantasy team. The Brewers are going to score more runs this year, so Jean has a chance at a .300, 100/15/55/35 season. As well as he played last year, he could still be undervalued on draft day.
Jonathan Lucroy - Lucroy is a nice major league catcher. He has been very good driving in runs over the past 2 seasons (20% RBI rate in 2012 and 18% in 2013). His K rate (11.9%) was a career best and it has improved a lot since 2011 (21.2%). His walk rate (7.9%) was also a career high and it has improved during every season in the majors. Jonathan played at a high level against LH pitching (.312 – .496 SLG %). His approach showed growth in July and August (20 walks and only 16 K’s), but his K rate (18.6%) spiked in September. His FB rate (38%) was a career high, while his HR/FB rate (10.3%) has been in a tight range over the last 3 seasons. His speed was a bonus last year and it was somewhat supported by his 2008 season at A ball (8 steals). Overall, his skill set is improving and he still has upside power. While his success is strong enough to where he can be a middle of the order hitter, his improving walk rate may work well as the #2 hitter for the Brewers this season. Gomez is too much of a free swinger, even with plus speed to bat 2nd, and I’m not solid on any of their other options. Lucroy will even have some added value be playing some games at first base. I see him as a possible .300 hitter with a 20/80 skill set with upside. His RBI production will take a hit if Milwaukee does give him a shot at batting 2nd, but he will score more runs.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/21/201 ... 63xAB.dpuf
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Milwaukee Brewers batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of Jean Segura and Jonathan Lucroy:
Jean Segura - Segura was one player I misread last season. Jean ended up being a difference maker from a middle infield position. He was a complete beast over the first 3 months of the year (.327 with 11 HR’s, 32 RBI’s, and 24 SB’s). Over the 2nd half of the year, his play declined dramatically (.255 with 1 HR and 17 RBI’s). However, his speed remained intact (20 SB’s). Segura was a very good against LH batters (.317 with a .507 SLG %), and he also hit well against righties (.287). His K rate (13.5%) is in a good area, but he doesn’t take many walks (4.0%). Jean missed the last couple weeks of the season with a hamstring injury. Segura has been a high GB hitter (58.7%) early in his career with a short FB rate (23.3%). He was a .313 hitter in the minors with 26 HR’s, 207 RBI’s, and 139 SB’s in 1,570 at bats. Jean really doesn’t have the right skill set to bat lead off, but he is the best option the Brewers have. Overall, Segura is a lot stronger than many fantasy players think. He has enough size to be a 20+ HR hitter down the road and has already shown he has 40 SB ability (which was supported by his minor league resume). He has the type of skill set that sets up well when building a fantasy team. The Brewers are going to score more runs this year, so Jean has a chance at a .300, 100/15/55/35 season. As well as he played last year, he could still be undervalued on draft day.
Jonathan Lucroy - Lucroy is a nice major league catcher. He has been very good driving in runs over the past 2 seasons (20% RBI rate in 2012 and 18% in 2013). His K rate (11.9%) was a career best and it has improved a lot since 2011 (21.2%). His walk rate (7.9%) was also a career high and it has improved during every season in the majors. Jonathan played at a high level against LH pitching (.312 – .496 SLG %). His approach showed growth in July and August (20 walks and only 16 K’s), but his K rate (18.6%) spiked in September. His FB rate (38%) was a career high, while his HR/FB rate (10.3%) has been in a tight range over the last 3 seasons. His speed was a bonus last year and it was somewhat supported by his 2008 season at A ball (8 steals). Overall, his skill set is improving and he still has upside power. While his success is strong enough to where he can be a middle of the order hitter, his improving walk rate may work well as the #2 hitter for the Brewers this season. Gomez is too much of a free swinger, even with plus speed to bat 2nd, and I’m not solid on any of their other options. Lucroy will even have some added value be playing some games at first base. I see him as a possible .300 hitter with a 20/80 skill set with upside. His RBI production will take a hit if Milwaukee does give him a shot at batting 2nd, but he will score more runs.
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CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
The Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff was pretty average in 2013, finishing 16th in MLB in ERA (3.84) and 14th in WHIP (1.29). Not surprisingly, they gave up a ton of HR’s (175). That was the 6th highest amount given up in MLB, and when you factor in that they play half of their games in the launching pad that is Miller Park, it all starts to make sense. They decided to shell out some cash in the offseason to bolster their starting rotation, signing Matt Garza to a 4-year, $52 million deal. Will the move pay off, or will injuries continue to give him problems?
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff!
To give you an idea of what my player profiles are like, here is my analysis of Yovani Gallardo:
This guy will make you bang your head against the floor. After having 200+ K’s over the previous 4 seasons, the writing was on the wall with the drop in his first pitch strike % (56%). He continued to not throw strikes in 2013, which led to his worst season in the majors (4.18 ERA). His K rate (7.2) was a career low and his command (3.3) still hasn’t improved. Furthermore, his AFB (90.7) was a career low and it has lost 2 mph over the last 2 seasons. His slider is still his #2 pitch, followed by a plus curveball and a weak changeup. Yovani has become more of a GB pitcher (49.2% – career high) over the last 3 seasons. This led to career low FB rate (27.6%), but his HR/FB rate (11.9%) invites downside in HR’s. Most of his decline in K’s was to LH batters (67 in 317 at bats – 102 in 371 at bats in 2012). Gallardo pitched better over his last 8 starts of the year (4-1 with a 2.41 ERA), but his K rate (7.4) remained shorter than his career resume (plus he missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury). Batters still struggle to hit his slider (.247) and curveball (.236), but his sinker has become a lot more hittable (.322 with .546 SLG %). Overall, Yovani has never made the step forward to be a fantasy ace due to a high WHIP (1.304 – career). His fastball is declining and he can’t throw first pitch strikes. While he has a long enough resume to have a bounce back season and his price point will be more than fair, his trend tells me to stay away. Tough to past up a possible 200 K arm, but there are enough signs where he might not bounce back all the way. We really need to see more life on his fastball plus one of those best shape of your life stories. Possible free agent in 2015.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/21/201 ... udt3B.dpuf
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff!
To give you an idea of what my player profiles are like, here is my analysis of Yovani Gallardo:
This guy will make you bang your head against the floor. After having 200+ K’s over the previous 4 seasons, the writing was on the wall with the drop in his first pitch strike % (56%). He continued to not throw strikes in 2013, which led to his worst season in the majors (4.18 ERA). His K rate (7.2) was a career low and his command (3.3) still hasn’t improved. Furthermore, his AFB (90.7) was a career low and it has lost 2 mph over the last 2 seasons. His slider is still his #2 pitch, followed by a plus curveball and a weak changeup. Yovani has become more of a GB pitcher (49.2% – career high) over the last 3 seasons. This led to career low FB rate (27.6%), but his HR/FB rate (11.9%) invites downside in HR’s. Most of his decline in K’s was to LH batters (67 in 317 at bats – 102 in 371 at bats in 2012). Gallardo pitched better over his last 8 starts of the year (4-1 with a 2.41 ERA), but his K rate (7.4) remained shorter than his career resume (plus he missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury). Batters still struggle to hit his slider (.247) and curveball (.236), but his sinker has become a lot more hittable (.322 with .546 SLG %). Overall, Yovani has never made the step forward to be a fantasy ace due to a high WHIP (1.304 – career). His fastball is declining and he can’t throw first pitch strikes. While he has a long enough resume to have a bounce back season and his price point will be more than fair, his trend tells me to stay away. Tough to past up a possible 200 K arm, but there are enough signs where he might not bounce back all the way. We really need to see more life on his fastball plus one of those best shape of your life stories. Possible free agent in 2015.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/21/201 ... udt3B.dpuf
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CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
When looking at their historical results, the San Diego Padres don’t exactly have what I would call an illustrious history. Since 1969, they have only made the playoffs 5 times. To make it even worse, they have finished last in their division 17 times, which equates to 37.78% of the time over that 45 season period. Looking at the 2013 season, their win-loss record wasn’t all that bad (76-86), but their offensive numbers were pretty lackluster, finishing 21st or lower in MLB in runs scored, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, HR’s and extra base hits (XBH). Heading into the 2014 season, I think this offense has a chance to improve with the emergence of Jedd Gyorko and a healthy Chase Headley at 3B.
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the San Diego Padres batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of Carlos Quentin:
Quentin has hit .267 with 86 runs, 29 HR’s, and 90 RBI’s in 560 at bats over the last 2 seasons with San Diego. Last year, his season started with a bang when he took out Zack Greinke after charging the mound on April 11th (resulted in an 8-game suspension). Carlos suffered a minor shoulder injury in mid May, and his season ended in late July after suffering a right knee injury that required surgery in late August. Quentin has been working on changing his stance to help take the pressure off of his right knee. His K rate (17.2%) has been above his career average in 2 of his last 3 seasons, while his walk rate (10.6%) has been above the league average for most of his career. He had equal success against both RH (.272 – .495 SLG %) and LH (.284 – .486 SLG %) pitching. Carlos has never played over 131 games in his career, but he has four 20+ HR seasons on his resume. His batting average has been a negative for most of his career, but his approach is high enough to be at least neutral. Quentin is a gamer and has 30/100 ability if he could ever get 550 at bats. The Padres have an extra solid outfielder, so his at bats will fall short of expectations. Solid backend power hitter with 20/80 upside with just 450 at bats. He has been injury prone, but his price is low enough where he will be a possible value power play in HR’s.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/22/201 ... p6zr5.dpuf
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the San Diego Padres batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of Carlos Quentin:
Quentin has hit .267 with 86 runs, 29 HR’s, and 90 RBI’s in 560 at bats over the last 2 seasons with San Diego. Last year, his season started with a bang when he took out Zack Greinke after charging the mound on April 11th (resulted in an 8-game suspension). Carlos suffered a minor shoulder injury in mid May, and his season ended in late July after suffering a right knee injury that required surgery in late August. Quentin has been working on changing his stance to help take the pressure off of his right knee. His K rate (17.2%) has been above his career average in 2 of his last 3 seasons, while his walk rate (10.6%) has been above the league average for most of his career. He had equal success against both RH (.272 – .495 SLG %) and LH (.284 – .486 SLG %) pitching. Carlos has never played over 131 games in his career, but he has four 20+ HR seasons on his resume. His batting average has been a negative for most of his career, but his approach is high enough to be at least neutral. Quentin is a gamer and has 30/100 ability if he could ever get 550 at bats. The Padres have an extra solid outfielder, so his at bats will fall short of expectations. Solid backend power hitter with 20/80 upside with just 450 at bats. He has been injury prone, but his price is low enough where he will be a possible value power play in HR’s.
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CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
The Padres added a few arms to their pitching staff via free agency in the offseason, signing SP Josh Johnson and RP Joaquin Benoit. Benoit will be the 8th inning guy for San Diego, while Johnson will slide into the top of the starting rotation if he can stay healthy, which was something he couldn’t do in 2013. Even though they play in the pitcher friendly Petco Park, they finished 19th in MLB in ERA (3.98) and 23rd in WHIP (1.33) last season.
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Padres pitchers!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of SP Ian Kennedy and CL Huston Street:
Ian Kennedy – Kennedy probably overachieved his skill set in 2011 when he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA. His value has been on a negative progression over the last 2 seasons. While his command (3.6) took a huge step backwards, his K rate (8.1) stayed intact. However, HR’s (1.3 per 9) have been a problem over the last 2 years. He pitched a little better with the Padres (4.34 ERA) after a late July trade, but he walked 18 batters in his first 5 starts with San Diego (29.7 innings – 5.4 walk rate). In September, Ian threw more strikes (7 walks in 28.7 innings – 2.2 walk rate), which led to 4 quality starts. His AFB (90.3) was in line with his 2011 season, and his changeup is his #2 pitch, followed by a curveball and a cutter. His biggest failure was against LH batters (.265 with 19 HR’s allowed in 340 at bats – .500 SLG %), but his command against righties has also regressed. Overall, his stuff has lost value across the board due to his inability to throws strikes. His home park gives him a big edge and he had a 2.81 ERA in 5 starts in San Diego after the trade (7-2 in his career with 2.41 ERA and 90 K’s in 71 innings). Solid backend gamble – 3.75 ERA with 13+ wins and 170+ K’s.
Huston Street – Street struggled with HR’s (12) in 2013, but he converted 33 of 35 saves. He missed a couple of weeks in June with a calf injury. His walk rate (2.2) was in line with his career resume, but his K rate (7.3) was a huge step back from 2012 (10.8) and was below his career average (9.0). Huston had success against both RH (.217) and LH (.208) batters. While Street had a 4.61 ERA over the first 3 months, he allowed 10 HR’s over his first 27.3 innings. Over the last 3 months, Huston pitched at an elite level (0.92 ERA with 31 K’s in 29.3 innings). His AFB (89.4) was slightly higher than 2012 (89.0 – career low). Furthermore, his slider is still his #2 pitch, followed by a changeup. His velocity was up across the board over the last 3 months of the year. Street has 234 career saves, but his skill set is on the decline and he will have some competition from Benoit for saves in 2014. He had a 30 game stretch from late June until last September where he only allowed 1 runs in 30.3 innings. His 2nd half success and his resume give him the best chance to get saves in San Diego. Street is a steady option for saves, but he can’t match the front talent in K’s.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/23/201 ... GJF4D.dpuf
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Padres pitchers!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of SP Ian Kennedy and CL Huston Street:
Ian Kennedy – Kennedy probably overachieved his skill set in 2011 when he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA. His value has been on a negative progression over the last 2 seasons. While his command (3.6) took a huge step backwards, his K rate (8.1) stayed intact. However, HR’s (1.3 per 9) have been a problem over the last 2 years. He pitched a little better with the Padres (4.34 ERA) after a late July trade, but he walked 18 batters in his first 5 starts with San Diego (29.7 innings – 5.4 walk rate). In September, Ian threw more strikes (7 walks in 28.7 innings – 2.2 walk rate), which led to 4 quality starts. His AFB (90.3) was in line with his 2011 season, and his changeup is his #2 pitch, followed by a curveball and a cutter. His biggest failure was against LH batters (.265 with 19 HR’s allowed in 340 at bats – .500 SLG %), but his command against righties has also regressed. Overall, his stuff has lost value across the board due to his inability to throws strikes. His home park gives him a big edge and he had a 2.81 ERA in 5 starts in San Diego after the trade (7-2 in his career with 2.41 ERA and 90 K’s in 71 innings). Solid backend gamble – 3.75 ERA with 13+ wins and 170+ K’s.
Huston Street – Street struggled with HR’s (12) in 2013, but he converted 33 of 35 saves. He missed a couple of weeks in June with a calf injury. His walk rate (2.2) was in line with his career resume, but his K rate (7.3) was a huge step back from 2012 (10.8) and was below his career average (9.0). Huston had success against both RH (.217) and LH (.208) batters. While Street had a 4.61 ERA over the first 3 months, he allowed 10 HR’s over his first 27.3 innings. Over the last 3 months, Huston pitched at an elite level (0.92 ERA with 31 K’s in 29.3 innings). His AFB (89.4) was slightly higher than 2012 (89.0 – career low). Furthermore, his slider is still his #2 pitch, followed by a changeup. His velocity was up across the board over the last 3 months of the year. Street has 234 career saves, but his skill set is on the decline and he will have some competition from Benoit for saves in 2014. He had a 30 game stretch from late June until last September where he only allowed 1 runs in 30.3 innings. His 2nd half success and his resume give him the best chance to get saves in San Diego. Street is a steady option for saves, but he can’t match the front talent in K’s.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/23/201 ... GJF4D.dpuf
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CC's Desperados
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- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
While the Colorado Rockies finished 10th in MLB in runs scored (706) in 2013, that was actually the lowest amount of runs scored for a full season in franchise history. Most of their offensive stats from last year look pretty good, like their .270 team batting average (3rd in MLB), .418 slugging percentage (5th in MLB) and 478 XBH (9th in MLB). Surprisingly, they only finished 15th in the majors in HR’s, totaling only 159 on the year. Despite playing half of their games every year at Coors Field, they haven’t finished in the top 10 in MLB in HR’s since 2010.
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Colorado Rockies batters!
If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of OF Carlos Gonzalez:
Sometimes it’s easy to forgot how good a player is in baseball if you don’t own him in the fantasy market. Gonzalez put up monster stats for a player that really played 2/3 of the season. Carlos was on a pace for a 100+ runs, 35+ HR’s, 100+ RBI, and 30+ SB season. However, his year was ruined by a right middle finger injury that limited him to only 37 at bats after the All Star break. Cargo had success against both RH (.297 with a .622 SLG %) and LH (.310 with a .535 SLG %) pitching. His one glaring negative was the huge jump in his K rate (27.1% – 19.4% in 2011 and 19.9% in 2013), although his walk rate (9.4%) has been just above the league average over the last 3 seasons. His HR/FB rate (23.9%) was a career high, and it has been in an elite area for the last 4 years. Gonzalez has a career high FB rate (40.5%). It looks like he made an effort to swing for the fences more (which led to higher K rate), but Carlos was able to maintain his .300 batting average. Surprisingly, he was a much better player on the road (.332 with 14 HR’s in 193 at bats). In early January, Gonzalez had emergency surgery on his appendix. Cargo is expected to be 100% healthy by the start of the season. Solid 20/20 player with upside across the board, however, his batting average may have risk if Carlos doesn’t fix the K issue.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/24/201 ... QXhSI.dpuf
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Colorado Rockies batters!
If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of OF Carlos Gonzalez:
Sometimes it’s easy to forgot how good a player is in baseball if you don’t own him in the fantasy market. Gonzalez put up monster stats for a player that really played 2/3 of the season. Carlos was on a pace for a 100+ runs, 35+ HR’s, 100+ RBI, and 30+ SB season. However, his year was ruined by a right middle finger injury that limited him to only 37 at bats after the All Star break. Cargo had success against both RH (.297 with a .622 SLG %) and LH (.310 with a .535 SLG %) pitching. His one glaring negative was the huge jump in his K rate (27.1% – 19.4% in 2011 and 19.9% in 2013), although his walk rate (9.4%) has been just above the league average over the last 3 seasons. His HR/FB rate (23.9%) was a career high, and it has been in an elite area for the last 4 years. Gonzalez has a career high FB rate (40.5%). It looks like he made an effort to swing for the fences more (which led to higher K rate), but Carlos was able to maintain his .300 batting average. Surprisingly, he was a much better player on the road (.332 with 14 HR’s in 193 at bats). In early January, Gonzalez had emergency surgery on his appendix. Cargo is expected to be 100% healthy by the start of the season. Solid 20/20 player with upside across the board, however, his batting average may have risk if Carlos doesn’t fix the K issue.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/24/201 ... QXhSI.dpuf
Re: Winter Training
Great stuff. Have enjoyed your analysis for a few years now.
COZ
COZ
COZ
"Baseball has it share of myths, things that blur the line between fact & fiction....Abner Doubleday inventing the game, Babe Ruth's Called Shot, Sid Finch's Fastball, the 2017 Astros...Barry Bonds's 762 HR's" -- Tom Verducci
"Baseball has it share of myths, things that blur the line between fact & fiction....Abner Doubleday inventing the game, Babe Ruth's Called Shot, Sid Finch's Fastball, the 2017 Astros...Barry Bonds's 762 HR's" -- Tom Verducci
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CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
COZ wrote:Great stuff. Have enjoyed your analysis for a few years now.
COZ
Thanks...I'm glad someone is reading it.
Last edited by CC's Desperados on Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Doctor Who
- Posts: 383
- Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2010 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
I know there might be a few more that read it. 
You doing your strategy articles after the team previews Shawn?
You doing your strategy articles after the team previews Shawn?-
CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
Ugly. That’s really all I can say about the Rockies pitching stats last season. To give you an idea of how bad they were, here is how they ranked in a few categories:
- ERA: 4.44 (28th in MLB)
- WHIP: 1.44 (29th in MLB)
- BAA: .277 (29th in MLB)
- Strikeouts: 1,064 (29th in MLB)
- Walks: 517 (9th most in MLB)
Alright you get the point. They completely sucked last year, but good news is they can’t get much worse.
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Colorado Rockies pitchers!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of SP Jorge De La Rosa and CL Rex Brothers:
Jorge De La Rosa: De La Rosa had his best season in the majors in 2013. His command (3.3) was a career best, but his K rate (6.0) was much shorter than his career average (7.6). Jorge allowed 2 runs or less in 18 of his 30 starts. His season ended in early September when he developed a left thumb injury. LH batters only hit .200 against him with no HR’s in 120 at bats. However, his AFB (91.1) was well below his pre Tommy John surgery speed (92.7 in 2011). His changeup is his #2 pitch, followed by a slider and a low level curveball. Jorge was 10-1 at home with a 2.76 ERA. Overall, his success in 2013 doesn’t look repeatable. He still struggles with RH batters (.280) with poor command and has a declining fastball. When you throw in his home park, you’ll have enough reasons to leave him off of your roster.
Rex Brothers: Brothers was a much better pitcher in 2013, allowing only 1 run his first 36 outings (0.27 ERA). His success led to him gaining the closer job in late July. He converted 17 of his 18 chances, but his walk rate (5.2) did fade over the last 3 months. Rex dominated LH batters (.162 with only 1 extra base hit allowed in 74 at bats), and did have success against righties (.229). However, his AFB (93.4) was almost 2 mph lower than his previous 2 seasons. He threw his slider as his #2 pitch, followed by a low level changeup. Overall, Rex still struggles with his walk rate (4.8), which led to a career low K rate (10.2). This year, Brothers will enter the season as the favorite to win the closer job in Colorado. His command could very easily get him in trouble and could possibly lead to job loss. I like his arm, but he can’t be elite without an improved walk rate. His drop in velocity is also a concern.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/25/201 ... yWejo.dpuf
- ERA: 4.44 (28th in MLB)
- WHIP: 1.44 (29th in MLB)
- BAA: .277 (29th in MLB)
- Strikeouts: 1,064 (29th in MLB)
- Walks: 517 (9th most in MLB)
Alright you get the point. They completely sucked last year, but good news is they can’t get much worse.
Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Colorado Rockies pitchers!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of SP Jorge De La Rosa and CL Rex Brothers:
Jorge De La Rosa: De La Rosa had his best season in the majors in 2013. His command (3.3) was a career best, but his K rate (6.0) was much shorter than his career average (7.6). Jorge allowed 2 runs or less in 18 of his 30 starts. His season ended in early September when he developed a left thumb injury. LH batters only hit .200 against him with no HR’s in 120 at bats. However, his AFB (91.1) was well below his pre Tommy John surgery speed (92.7 in 2011). His changeup is his #2 pitch, followed by a slider and a low level curveball. Jorge was 10-1 at home with a 2.76 ERA. Overall, his success in 2013 doesn’t look repeatable. He still struggles with RH batters (.280) with poor command and has a declining fastball. When you throw in his home park, you’ll have enough reasons to leave him off of your roster.
Rex Brothers: Brothers was a much better pitcher in 2013, allowing only 1 run his first 36 outings (0.27 ERA). His success led to him gaining the closer job in late July. He converted 17 of his 18 chances, but his walk rate (5.2) did fade over the last 3 months. Rex dominated LH batters (.162 with only 1 extra base hit allowed in 74 at bats), and did have success against righties (.229). However, his AFB (93.4) was almost 2 mph lower than his previous 2 seasons. He threw his slider as his #2 pitch, followed by a low level changeup. Overall, Rex still struggles with his walk rate (4.8), which led to a career low K rate (10.2). This year, Brothers will enter the season as the favorite to win the closer job in Colorado. His command could very easily get him in trouble and could possibly lead to job loss. I like his arm, but he can’t be elite without an improved walk rate. His drop in velocity is also a concern.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/25/201 ... yWejo.dpuf
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CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
So you want me to post the articles from last couple of years?wagner13454 wrote:I know there might be a few more that read it.
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Doctor Who
- Posts: 383
- Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2010 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
If you aren't doing any new ones for this year, I wouldn't mind a refresher on your old strategy articles at all.
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CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
I'll start kicking out that content after the teams content is posted.wagner13454 wrote:If you aren't doing any new ones for this year, I wouldn't mind a refresher on your old strategy articles at all.
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CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
Re: Winter Training
After winning the NL West in 2011 with a record of 94-68, the Arizona Diamondbacks have played .500 ball in back to back seasons, going 81-81 in both 2012 and 2013. Despite playing their home games at the hitter friendly Chase Field, the D’Backs finished 14th in MLB in runs scored (685), and only hit 130 HR’s (5th lowest amount in MLB). During the offseason, they picked up Mark Trumbo from the Angels, who has averaged over 30 HR’s and just under 100 RBI’s over the past two seasons. Could he be the key to getting Arizona over the .500 mark and becoming a contender for the NL West division title?
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Arizona Diamondbacks batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of 1B Paul Goldschmidt:
Goldschmidt had a monster season in 2013. He led the NL in HR’s (36), RBI’s (125), SLG % (.551), and OPS (.952). His K rate (20.4%) has improved over the last 2 years, but it is too high to support a .300 batting average over the long term. His walk rate (13.9%) was a career high, which was helped by 19 intentional passes. Paul was very good against RH (.300 with a .534 SLG %) and LH (.309 with a .604 SLG %) pitching. Furthermore, he had 5 HR’s or more in each month with 18 or more RBI’s. His HR/FB rate (22.5%) has been in an elite area in 2 of his 3 seasons in the majors. While his success was driven by his ability to hit a fastball (.347 vs. four season fastball with a .649 SLG % and .358 vs. sinker with a .642 SLG %), he was still pretty good hitting the changeup (.286 with .633 SLG %). Goldschmidt has elite power with speed, which gives him a nice edge at first base. His batting average has been over .300 in each season in the minors and his K rate last season was stronger than his minor league resume. Paul is a 35/15 guy, but his batting average may only come in around the .280 range in 2014.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/26/201 ... 39w3g.dpuf
Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Arizona Diamondbacks batters!
Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Here is my analysis of 1B Paul Goldschmidt:
Goldschmidt had a monster season in 2013. He led the NL in HR’s (36), RBI’s (125), SLG % (.551), and OPS (.952). His K rate (20.4%) has improved over the last 2 years, but it is too high to support a .300 batting average over the long term. His walk rate (13.9%) was a career high, which was helped by 19 intentional passes. Paul was very good against RH (.300 with a .534 SLG %) and LH (.309 with a .604 SLG %) pitching. Furthermore, he had 5 HR’s or more in each month with 18 or more RBI’s. His HR/FB rate (22.5%) has been in an elite area in 2 of his 3 seasons in the majors. While his success was driven by his ability to hit a fastball (.347 vs. four season fastball with a .649 SLG % and .358 vs. sinker with a .642 SLG %), he was still pretty good hitting the changeup (.286 with .633 SLG %). Goldschmidt has elite power with speed, which gives him a nice edge at first base. His batting average has been over .300 in each season in the minors and his K rate last season was stronger than his minor league resume. Paul is a 35/15 guy, but his batting average may only come in around the .280 range in 2014.
- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/26/201 ... 39w3g.dpuf