The Billy Ham Risk/Reward

[DOUGHBOYS]

I've watched Billy Hamilton the last two days. He looks to be like any other judy. Small, fast, jitterbug type of guy.
I haven't drafted him. His price tag comes too high for me. The drafters that are applying that high price tag to Hamilton are going 'all in' with their fifth pick.
To what end?
Craig Kimbrel is being taken in the fourth round. Is Kimbrel being taken this high for his Saves?
Nope.
Kimbrel is being taken because the Saves are being taken for granted, PLUS the fact that his peripherals are much like having half of a starting pitcher, a great one, on fantasy rosters. Kimbrel, in a short time, has proved himself to be the best Closer in fantasy baseball. A major help in Saves. Half of a great starting pitcher in K's. A staff stabilizer for E.R.A. and WHIP. and he'll probably throw in a few Wins.

A round later, Hamilton is taken. Hamilton can steal bases. Most equate stolen bases to runs scored. Rajai Davis has never scored more than 66 runs. Last year, Davis stole 45 bases and scored 49 runs.
Hamilton drafters, of course, expect more. They saw Hamilton in September running wild and expect the same over a full season. Forgetting that Hamilton was used a pinch runner for most of those steals. Instant on base percentage is a pinch runner.

During these first two spring training games, Hamilton has bunted twice, hoping for a base hit. Both failed miserably.
It demonstrated how much Hamilton is a work in progress.
Working against Hamilton is being right hand dominant. When great bunters come to mind, Brett Butler, Rod Carew, Juan Pierre, Otis Nixon, and Maury Wills (switch hitter) being left handed is a help for dragging bunts. Hamilton is a square up bunter, meaning he gets no running start, also knowing that the bunt has to be placed perfectly to an infield who is already cheating in.

As far as fantasy baseball goes, I am perfectly happy seeing Hamilton rostered by another team. Stolen bases can be 'gamed' in many ways. Gambling on one fella carrying my team in one category with a fifth round pick does not appeal to me. In every draft, he is being taken ahead of Alex Gordon, a player who finished last year with .265/90/20/81/11 numbers.
His drafters know they are passing on stability for a lotto ticket.
Is that lotto ticket worth a high draft choice?
They think so.

For me, I can't get past the risk/reward.
Even if he hits .260, scores 90 runs and steals 75 bases, is that worth a fifth round pick?
And this is the reward.
The risk is that he becomes only a September call up help in stolen bases again.
In the end, I almost wish I was in love with taking Hamilton. It would have made for a much more interesting post.
But, I just can't.

[KJ Duke]

Even if he hits .260, scores 90 runs and steals 75 bases, is that worth a fifth round pick?

No, it is not.

... those stats would make him a second rounder.

[KJ Duke]

He also could be the second-coming of Dee Gordon, who I believe two years ago was being drafted around the 6th round only to be dropped by almost all a month into the season.

So his value is somewhere between Round 2 and undraftable.

[Gekko]

Even if he hits .260, scores 90 runs and steals 75 bases, is that worth a fifth round pick?

No, it is not.

... those stats would make him a second rounder.

75sb will put him as late 2nd round for me. 90 gets him in first round

[Roger Dorn]

Even if he hits .260, scores 90 runs and steals 75 bases, is that worth a fifth round pick?

No, it is not.

... those stats would make him a second rounder.

+1

[Roger Dorn]

If not the 5th then where?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Even if he hits .260, scores 90 runs and steals 75 bases, is that worth a fifth round pick?

No, it is not.

... those stats would make him a second rounder.

Juan Pierre had 68 and 64 stolen bases. Scored more than 90 runs each time. Hit for a higher avg.
Was Pierre a second rounder?

[Gekko]

Even if he hits .260, scores 90 runs and steals 75 bases, is that worth a fifth round pick?

No, it is not.

... those stats would make him a second rounder.

Juan Pierre had 68 and 64 stolen bases. Scored more than 90 runs each time. Hit for a higher avg.
Was Pierre a second rounder?

If he wasn't, he should have been, easily

[Gekko]

Even if he hits .260, scores 90 runs and steals 75 bases, is that worth a fifth round pick?

No, it is not.

... those stats would make him a second rounder.

75sb will put him as late 2nd round for me. 90 gets him in first round

+1

[KJ Duke]

Even if he hits .260, scores 90 runs and steals 75 bases, is that worth a fifth round pick?

No, it is not.

... those stats would make him a second rounder.

Juan Pierre had 68 and 64 stolen bases. Scored more than 90 runs each time. Hit for a higher avg.
Was Pierre a second rounder?

In 2006, 2007 and 2010 he was worth a 2nd round pick ... in 2008, 2009 his value was closer to the 20th round.

In 2011, Juan's ADP was round 6.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Even if he hits .260, scores 90 runs and steals 75 bases, is that worth a fifth round pick?

No, it is not.

... those stats would make him a second rounder.

In 2006, 2007 and 2010 he was worth a 2nd round pick ... in 2008, 2009 his value was closer to the 20th round.

Finally! A fantasy aspect in which we think differently.....

Let me ask this question....if you could lock up .260/90/0/35/75 in the second round and draft the rest of the draft knowing those numbers are secured, would you?

[Roger Dorn]

No, it is not.

... those stats would make him a second rounder.

75sb will put him as late 2nd round for me. 90 gets him in first round

+1

self high-five?

[ALL-IN JD]

Dan,

Big difference now the incredible scarcity of that big stolen base guy. I admit I am a gambler by nature and it's not often you get the chance to draft a guy that could (I repeat could) steal 100 bases and almost single-handedly win you a category. I drafted Hamilton and Rajai Davis in one of my DC's (granted its easier in a DC league) and fully expect to win the steals category. I did not draft any depth in steals so its sink or swim with him.

[KJ Duke]

Finally! A fantasy aspect in which we think differently.....

Let me ask this question....if you could lock up .260/90/0/35/75 in the second round and draft the rest of the draft knowing those numbers are secured, would you?

No doubt about it, I'd take it to the bank. There are very few guarantees in life, and that would be a good one.

[Roger Dorn]

Where does this hypothetical player go - - OF with playing time uncertainty but potential for 220-70R-70RBI-70HR-0 ? Less contribution in HR category than what Billy potentially brings to SB so worth less?

[KJ Duke]

Finally! A fantasy aspect in which we think differently.....

Let me ask this question....

Here's one for you ... If I could guarantee you Giancarlo Stanton hits 260 with 50 HRs, but no SBs and 80 r/80 rbi, would you take him ahead of the Billy Hamilton guaranteed numbers ?

[Roger Dorn]

Finally! A fantasy aspect in which we think differently.....

Let me ask this question....

Here's one for you ... If I could guarantee you Giancarlo Stanton hits 260 with 50 HRs, but no SBs and 80 r/80 rbi, would you take him ahead of the Billy Hamilton guaranteed numbers ?

One argument against Billy earlier than Gia is that it is easier to find SBs later in the draft with guys that won't kill your AVG and post similar counting #s to early round speed picks vs. late round HRs as they come will dilutive AVG and weaker counting #s.

If Gia can produce guaranteed 260-80-80-50-0 Billy would need to produce a line of
250-R80-RBI40-HR0-92SB for $ 'parity'. Both would be 2nd rounders

[DOUGHBOYS]

Finally! A fantasy aspect in which we think differently.....

Let me ask this question....

Here's one for you ... If I could guarantee you Giancarlo Stanton hits 260 with 50 HRs, but no SBs and 80 r/80 rbi, would you take him ahead of the Billy Hamilton guaranteed numbers ?

I don't. I'd feel like I could get those numbers in other ways without sacrificing avg and sb.
This is all very interesting to me.
Hamilton is an open ended straight flush. It just depends on who is holding the hand in how to play it...

[KJ Duke]

FLASHBACK • 2006 ADP
1.01 Alex Rodriguez
1.02 Albert Pujols
1.03 Vladimir Guerrero
1.04 Mark Teixeira
1.05 Carl Crawford
1.06 Derrek Lee
1.07 David Wright
1.08 Manny Ramirez
1.09 Jason Bay
1.10 Johan Santana
1.11 Bobby Abreu
1.12 David Ortiz
1.13 Miguel Cabrera
1.14 Chone Figgins
1.15 Jose Reyes
2.01 Chase Utley
2.02 Carlos Beltran
2.03 Miguel Tejada
2.04 Michael Young
2.05 Jimmy Rollins
2.06 Ichiro Suzuki
2.07 Alfonso Soriano
2.08 Juan Pierre
2.09 Todd Helton
2.10 Derek Jeter
2.11 Aramis Ramirez
2.12 Travis Hafner
2.13 Grady Sizemore
2.14 Jake Peavy
2.15 Victor Martinez

[DOUGHBOYS]

Awesome KJ!
I had forgotten that Pierre was taken that high!
Is the three round difference in Pierre/ Billy Ham the risk of not hitting?
I ask this because if he DOES hit, I fully expect him to surpass Pierre sb figures.

[KJ Duke]

Awesome KJ!
I had forgotten that Pierre was taken that high!
Is the three round difference in Pierre/ Billy Ham the risk of not hitting?
I ask this because if he DOES hit, I fully expect him to surpass Pierre sb figures.

My expectation is a lower average than what you proposed, but the real is risk is playing time ... whoever drafts him needs to ask, am I willing to get DeeGordoned?

[DOUGHBOYS]

It'll be interesting seeing where he goes in Main Events if hitting .300 in Spring Training.
The risk appears less riskier and his draft standing moves up from the 5th, to the 4th, to the 3rd....
At what point does it all stop?
I'm thinking even with that .300 Spring Training that it would have to stop at the middle of the second round. Otherwise, risk is completely aside and even if doing the .260/90/0/35/75, the price point equals the spot taken.

[ALL-IN JD]

If he hits close to .300 he also scores 120-130 runs.

[KJ Duke]

It'll be interesting seeing where he goes in Main Events if hitting .300 in Spring Training.
The risk appears less riskier and his draft standing moves up from the 5th, to the 4th, to the 3rd....
At what point does it all stop?
I'm thinking even with that .300 Spring Training that it would have to stop at the middle of the second round. Otherwise, risk is completely aside and even if doing the .260/90/0/35/75, the price point equals the spot taken.

Unless someone who is prone to over-the-top projections ... I'm not naming names, aye ... thinks he can hit .300 and steal 100, then all of a sudden he's challenging Trout!

[Bronx Yankees]

FLASHBACK • 2006 ADP
1.01 Alex Rodriguez
1.02 Albert Pujols
1.03 Vladimir Guerrero
1.04 Mark Teixeira
1.05 Carl Crawford
1.06 Derrek Lee
1.07 David Wright
1.08 Manny Ramirez
1.09 Jason Bay
1.10 Johan Santana
1.11 Bobby Abreu
1.12 David Ortiz
1.13 Miguel Cabrera
1.14 Chone Figgins
1.15 Jose Reyes
2.01 Chase Utley
2.02 Carlos Beltran
2.03 Miguel Tejada
2.04 Michael Young
2.05 Jimmy Rollins
2.06 Ichiro Suzuki
2.07 Alfonso Soriano
2.08 Juan Pierre
2.09 Todd Helton
2.10 Derek Jeter
2.11 Aramis Ramirez
2.12 Travis Hafner
2.13 Grady Sizemore
2.14 Jake Peavy
2.15 Victor Martinez

Fascinating to see this. This pre-dates my NFBC involvement by many years. Funny how I remember some players really well and other players much less so. At this point in time in 2014, it is shocking to see to Miggy being drafted only one pick ahead of Chone Figgins. I had to jump onto Fangraphs to get a refresher on Figgins' better years. Yep, in 2005, Figgins hit .290 with 8 HR, 113 R, 57 RBI and 62 SB.

Fun Fact #1: Stolen bases declined considerably last year, while the differential between home runs and stolen bases increased. Recognizing that while each HR also brings a slight bump in BA, one R and at least one RBI, SBs are becoming increasingly rare compared to HRs:

2011: There were 4,552 HR and 3,279 SB in MLB. (Differential = 1,273)
2012: There were 4,934 HR and 3,229 SB in MLB. (Differential = 1,705)
2013: There were 4,661 HR and 2,693 SB in MLB. (Differential = 1,968)

Who knows if this will continue?

Fun Fact #2: A different Billy Hamilton led the National League in SB in 1890, 1891, 1894 and 1895, with between 97 and 111 SBs each year. Now, 100+ years later, will a Billy Hamilton again lead the National League in SBs?

Mike