I noticed an interesting thing today. I always thought that because Erik Bedard's stats were so good and then so bad and then so good again, that I stopped playing him at the appropriate time and accrued excellent stats because of it. By looking at my YTD fantasy stats, I saw that his ERA and WHIP for my team are actually worse than his stats on the year. It seems that I trusted in him long enough to accrue awful stats while he was bad and then didn't believe in him enough to start him once he got very good again. I noticed this last year, also, that my players' rate stats were often worse than their stats on the season.
So my question is do you think it is better to trust in your projections for a player and leave them in your lineup, even when in a bad spell, or should we just believe in our drafting selves and the players we picked?
Some anecdotal data about your specific players might be useful (especially if you have Bedard). Keep in mind that when a player loses playing time, it is different completely. We are just thinking about trying to use players according to hot/cold streaks.
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nydownunder
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Interesting post. I think your approach to pitching would be different than hitting.
Offense: Being more of a quant guy, thus an inherent trust in a players season projections, I am inclined to leave your premium players (ie top 10-12 batters) in every single week. For example, I have Richie Sexson this year and as much as I know he is killing me in AVG, I have taken no chances in missing out any potential big weeks. On the other side of things, I gave up on Ellis as my UTIL and R.White as my 5th OF, about 1/3 and 2/5 of the way through the season. The motto here should be if you are going to live by the sword then you must also die by the sword (ie play your top drafted players). You don't ever want to lose because you took chances with you top players in and out of the lineup.
Pitching: Totally different story here. Starting pitchers 1-5 should be in for the long hall. Essentially trust your projections. Even if you don't, these guys are likely the ones carrying your torches when it comes to Wins and Strike Outs (cumulative stats). I would think ERA and WHIP could be slightly more volatile. Point being it's not worth protecting ERA and WHIP by sitting one of these guys vs a BIG LINEUP at the risk of losing the cumulative stats (or potential thereof). You've got to have a pretty darn good reason (ie injury) for going against this IMHO. You may not see the cost now in using a non-closing RP in these situations but by the end of the season you would have killed for an extra win or two or 5 or 6 strikeouts. As for Starting Pitchers 6 and 7, I am probably not a good source for advice here. I have always tended to go with the best matchup which usually just means the weaker lineup. Unfortunately my pitchers in these spots seem to excel vs the good teams so I have come out on the short end with this. And I don't wish to change my philosphy at this stage of the season in hopes that it turns back around and averages out in the end. I also lean towards POWER pitchers to be activated in the #6 and #7 spot because of the cumulative stats. Unfortunately, I have had to use a #8 SP for the better part of the season as well and I would have to say that has been a failure of sorts (ERA+WHIP[ August 08, 2006, 02:57 PM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]
Offense: Being more of a quant guy, thus an inherent trust in a players season projections, I am inclined to leave your premium players (ie top 10-12 batters) in every single week. For example, I have Richie Sexson this year and as much as I know he is killing me in AVG, I have taken no chances in missing out any potential big weeks. On the other side of things, I gave up on Ellis as my UTIL and R.White as my 5th OF, about 1/3 and 2/5 of the way through the season. The motto here should be if you are going to live by the sword then you must also die by the sword (ie play your top drafted players). You don't ever want to lose because you took chances with you top players in and out of the lineup.
Pitching: Totally different story here. Starting pitchers 1-5 should be in for the long hall. Essentially trust your projections. Even if you don't, these guys are likely the ones carrying your torches when it comes to Wins and Strike Outs (cumulative stats). I would think ERA and WHIP could be slightly more volatile. Point being it's not worth protecting ERA and WHIP by sitting one of these guys vs a BIG LINEUP at the risk of losing the cumulative stats (or potential thereof). You've got to have a pretty darn good reason (ie injury) for going against this IMHO. You may not see the cost now in using a non-closing RP in these situations but by the end of the season you would have killed for an extra win or two or 5 or 6 strikeouts. As for Starting Pitchers 6 and 7, I am probably not a good source for advice here. I have always tended to go with the best matchup which usually just means the weaker lineup. Unfortunately my pitchers in these spots seem to excel vs the good teams so I have come out on the short end with this. And I don't wish to change my philosphy at this stage of the season in hopes that it turns back around and averages out in the end. I also lean towards POWER pitchers to be activated in the #6 and #7 spot because of the cumulative stats. Unfortunately, I have had to use a #8 SP for the better part of the season as well and I would have to say that has been a failure of sorts (ERA+WHIP[ August 08, 2006, 02:57 PM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]
Wagga Wagga Dingoes (NY#4)
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity!
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity!
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Before the net, we would transcribe about 1000 voice mail lineups each week.
It was easy to see that many owners "chased" what a P did in his last start, especially when he got lit and they would bench him. More so with #3-5 type P's.
Many owners wound up getting more bad starts than good starts due to the chasing.
It was easy to see that many owners "chased" what a P did in his last start, especially when he got lit and they would bench him. More so with #3-5 type P's.
Many owners wound up getting more bad starts than good starts due to the chasing.
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Hitting and pitching are generally handled differently.
In hitting, I feel you play your best based on projections unless they get injured or their preformance go deep south - not just south but deep south. In the NFBC, you will likely have one catcher, one MI and one OF that get changed frequently but the other 11 hitters will stay active. Injuries are usually the deciding factor in the hitting categories. Another key in hitting is seeing and getting that free agent who is about to be a stud. There won't likely be many but they are there.
In pitching, I feel you keep your top 3-4 SPs active regardless and then rotate your others to maximize starts and matchups. And then you pray you don't draft a Randy Johnson type. He is too good to bench and certainly did not help your team most of the season. Every year multiple unknown SPs show up. Closers change frequently. I think this is where a vast majority of your budget will go.
In hitting, I feel you play your best based on projections unless they get injured or their preformance go deep south - not just south but deep south. In the NFBC, you will likely have one catcher, one MI and one OF that get changed frequently but the other 11 hitters will stay active. Injuries are usually the deciding factor in the hitting categories. Another key in hitting is seeing and getting that free agent who is about to be a stud. There won't likely be many but they are there.
In pitching, I feel you keep your top 3-4 SPs active regardless and then rotate your others to maximize starts and matchups. And then you pray you don't draft a Randy Johnson type. He is too good to bench and certainly did not help your team most of the season. Every year multiple unknown SPs show up. Closers change frequently. I think this is where a vast majority of your budget will go.
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This begs the question of just how long should one trust his projections. For the past six weeks I have watched in horror as Mark Buehrle turns in one wretched start after another. I keep expecting him to turn things around, but other than an adequate stat line against a miserable Kansas City team, Buehrle has been awful from July on. It would be interesting to see how many others have stuck it out with Buerhle. Have others had a quick hook and benched him until he gets his act together?
Kevin
Kevin
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nydownunder
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Originally posted by kgrady:
This begs the question of just how long should one trust his projections. For the past six weeks I have watched in horror as Mark Buehrle turns in one wretched start after another. I keep expecting him to turn things around, but other than an adequate stat line against a miserable Kansas City team, Buehrle has been awful from July on. It would be interesting to see how many others have stuck it out with Buerhle. Have others had a quick hook and benched him until he gets his act together?
Kevin There's a better chance of Pitching projections being wrong than Hitting. Having a #4 or #5 pitcher struggle like that is perhaps one of the more frustrating situations. You just don't know which way to turn sometimes with these guys. Although the lack of POWER numbers always makes it a bit easier to pull the hook. For example, I'll put up with Vazquez because of his Wins ans Strikeouts that come with his high ERA and WHIP. If he didn't bring the former he'd be collecting splinters for me.
This begs the question of just how long should one trust his projections. For the past six weeks I have watched in horror as Mark Buehrle turns in one wretched start after another. I keep expecting him to turn things around, but other than an adequate stat line against a miserable Kansas City team, Buehrle has been awful from July on. It would be interesting to see how many others have stuck it out with Buerhle. Have others had a quick hook and benched him until he gets his act together?
Kevin There's a better chance of Pitching projections being wrong than Hitting. Having a #4 or #5 pitcher struggle like that is perhaps one of the more frustrating situations. You just don't know which way to turn sometimes with these guys. Although the lack of POWER numbers always makes it a bit easier to pull the hook. For example, I'll put up with Vazquez because of his Wins ans Strikeouts that come with his high ERA and WHIP. If he didn't bring the former he'd be collecting splinters for me.
Wagga Wagga Dingoes (NY#4)
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity!
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity!
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Most of the responces here refer to whether or not to bench a starter after a bad performance or whether to bench #4,5,6 starters, but what happens when your pitcher suddenly looks like he can't throw a major league quality pitch? Bedard was my example and Buehrle is now a good one. I have a hard time believing anyone who was managing his team left in Bedard all year and I would have a hard time putting Buehrle out there right now, but that can still hurt your team. If you stop playing B (I can't stand to spell his name any longer) maybe he will suddenly become better but if you keep playing him he could just continue to give up 5-7 runs per game. It's hard to see that every week and keep putting him out there but perhaps some do that and have success. What do you do in these dire situations?
I'm still interested in hearing from Bedard owners. What did they do with him and how did it work out for their teams? I was ready to drop him at one point (thank god I didn't).
[ August 09, 2006, 04:34 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]
I'm still interested in hearing from Bedard owners. What did they do with him and how did it work out for their teams? I was ready to drop him at one point (thank god I didn't).
[ August 09, 2006, 04:34 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]
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nydownunder
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I think Pitchings trends are strong indicators of what to expect. There are very few pitchers, whom you wouldn't be starting every week anyway, whom can go on a huge role.
I would think O.Perez is right up there with Bedard as to the type of pitchers that really put you in a tough situation.
...and of course Westbrook goes out and proves just how difficult it can be in predicting when a #6-8 pitcher will look brilliant. Of course he was on my bench for me this week. I suspect Reyes will go and pitch a gem today and then Hill tomorrow at Colorado. I'd have a better chance of getting something right in week #1 of the NFL, which for those whom don't know is bookies' most anticipated weekend of the year.
I would think O.Perez is right up there with Bedard as to the type of pitchers that really put you in a tough situation.
...and of course Westbrook goes out and proves just how difficult it can be in predicting when a #6-8 pitcher will look brilliant. Of course he was on my bench for me this week. I suspect Reyes will go and pitch a gem today and then Hill tomorrow at Colorado. I'd have a better chance of getting something right in week #1 of the NFL, which for those whom don't know is bookies' most anticipated weekend of the year.
Wagga Wagga Dingoes (NY#4)
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Luck is where preparation meets opportunity!
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Edwards Kings
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I agree with everything said about your hitters. One to three will be replaced by options that will present themselves either from your reserves or the FAAB, but 11 or 12 will be your core that you will probably not be able to improve on.
On the pitching, I am a stupid old dog who cannot learn any new tricks. I keep trying to play the "match-up" game and my rationalizations have not proven very effective. I have had four "anchors" to my starting pitching: Schmidt, D. Davis, J. Vazquez, and K. Millwood. For three of the four, I certainly had better years projected, but through Week 18, I sat down Davis, Vazquez and Millwood once each because of unfavorable matchups. The combined line for those three starts? 23 IP, 2 W, 1 ND, 11 H, 18 K, 5 BB, 6 ER, 2.348 ERA and 0.696 WHIP. I did not start Vazquez this week at home versus the NYY. Wonder how that will turn out? Even if I am right and Vazquez gets shelled, I would lose a lot of money in Vegas only being right one time in four.
The big difference between Hitters and Pitchers is I believe as much as one-third of your pitching staff can come after the draft, especially on the RP or closer side. I was able to pull two excellent pitchers from the FAAB and have used them most of the year, Francis (not great for K's but he has pitched very well) and Otsuka.
In short, let the good players play through the rough spots and try not to overanalyze the "match-ups".
On the pitching, I am a stupid old dog who cannot learn any new tricks. I keep trying to play the "match-up" game and my rationalizations have not proven very effective. I have had four "anchors" to my starting pitching: Schmidt, D. Davis, J. Vazquez, and K. Millwood. For three of the four, I certainly had better years projected, but through Week 18, I sat down Davis, Vazquez and Millwood once each because of unfavorable matchups. The combined line for those three starts? 23 IP, 2 W, 1 ND, 11 H, 18 K, 5 BB, 6 ER, 2.348 ERA and 0.696 WHIP. I did not start Vazquez this week at home versus the NYY. Wonder how that will turn out? Even if I am right and Vazquez gets shelled, I would lose a lot of money in Vegas only being right one time in four.
The big difference between Hitters and Pitchers is I believe as much as one-third of your pitching staff can come after the draft, especially on the RP or closer side. I was able to pull two excellent pitchers from the FAAB and have used them most of the year, Francis (not great for K's but he has pitched very well) and Otsuka.
In short, let the good players play through the rough spots and try not to overanalyze the "match-ups".
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
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Wayne,
Used to be I always had good Hitters and my Pitching choices were my downfall. Finally!!! I'm having an unbelievable pitching year. Leading in all but wins(Tied for 9th.)
I play matchup with several factors. Opposing pitcher, opponent, Home/Away, game in series, and comprisimg thes factors are sub factors. But the overiding thing is the tools that my pitcher exhibts and what he's doing lately.
My Pitching evaluation has gotten better (1) due to my partnership with Shawn of CC's Desperados fame. I knew from playing against him that he had a knack or method for making decsions on pitchers. He shared some of those methods during our teaming up. NO! I won't tell you what they are. Ask Shawn, maybe he'll tell you. It's up to him if he wants to share those thoughts.
(2) I watch alot of baseball and not just my players. I'm constantly "Scouting " pitchers. If you're married, have children, have a fulltime job, or are in a committed relationship, you can't possibly compete with me in this regard. It's just me and "Fenway" (she's a cat) and she loves it when the schedule is west coast heavy because I'm up until all hours and she thinks I'm doing it to be with her.
(3) I use MY thoughts to decide what to do. Not message board gurus, or what some expert, announcer, manager(they lie alot), GM, or Fan says. Oh, I listen to it ALL!, this takes up alot of time as well. But I make my own decsion. Some work some don't. Some are really good. Some are really bad. If I coulda, woulda, shoulda, I don't do. I look at why I made that choice and try to replicate it if it was positive, and avoid it if It didn't work. Patterns appear and they can be useful in the future.
(4) this note is getting a little long and I'm not finished but I've got to get Over to the Cape Cod League Playoffs. They are right here in my hometowm and start @ 3. I want to get their in time for infield and BP. What are you doing this afternoon Wayne.?
[ August 11, 2006, 01:04 PM: Message edited by: Kevin D ]
Used to be I always had good Hitters and my Pitching choices were my downfall. Finally!!! I'm having an unbelievable pitching year. Leading in all but wins(Tied for 9th.)
I play matchup with several factors. Opposing pitcher, opponent, Home/Away, game in series, and comprisimg thes factors are sub factors. But the overiding thing is the tools that my pitcher exhibts and what he's doing lately.
My Pitching evaluation has gotten better (1) due to my partnership with Shawn of CC's Desperados fame. I knew from playing against him that he had a knack or method for making decsions on pitchers. He shared some of those methods during our teaming up. NO! I won't tell you what they are. Ask Shawn, maybe he'll tell you. It's up to him if he wants to share those thoughts.
(2) I watch alot of baseball and not just my players. I'm constantly "Scouting " pitchers. If you're married, have children, have a fulltime job, or are in a committed relationship, you can't possibly compete with me in this regard. It's just me and "Fenway" (she's a cat) and she loves it when the schedule is west coast heavy because I'm up until all hours and she thinks I'm doing it to be with her.
(3) I use MY thoughts to decide what to do. Not message board gurus, or what some expert, announcer, manager(they lie alot), GM, or Fan says. Oh, I listen to it ALL!, this takes up alot of time as well. But I make my own decsion. Some work some don't. Some are really good. Some are really bad. If I coulda, woulda, shoulda, I don't do. I look at why I made that choice and try to replicate it if it was positive, and avoid it if It didn't work. Patterns appear and they can be useful in the future.
(4) this note is getting a little long and I'm not finished but I've got to get Over to the Cape Cod League Playoffs. They are right here in my hometowm and start @ 3. I want to get their in time for infield and BP. What are you doing this afternoon Wayne.?
[ August 11, 2006, 01:04 PM: Message edited by: Kevin D ]
"All of Life is part of the Divine"---Ancient Hindu saying
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Edwards Kings
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Sounds like you and Shawn have it worked out. The right "formula" or filters on pitching has damn sure escaped me. I am not surprised. Collectively you guys have kicked my xxx since LV7 in 2004. I spend too much time on this (my wife, my kids, my boss, and the damn cat too have told me) already, but my mind is always open to new ideas.
I am around this afternoon at work while I launch a thousand indecisions, then I get to take my son to football practice (my son is a mini-monster...five feet tall and 125 lbs and just turned 10 if I may be allowed to brag!) this evening.
I am around this afternoon at work while I launch a thousand indecisions, then I get to take my son to football practice (my son is a mini-monster...five feet tall and 125 lbs and just turned 10 if I may be allowed to brag!) this evening.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
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Edwards Kings
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Just looked at you pitching stats, Kevin, and they are awesome. But I was glad that someone other than me screwed up and thought Jason Johnson was worth a try! I only used him for 41 IP but, man, did he stink it up!
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
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As Bjork says above in too many words "Timing is everything". JJ's looked good in his last two starts. Why did we like him earlier? He stunk the place up. Will he stink his next start is the question. Is he avaiable for pickup? How much/little FAAB would he cost? What are the other pitching options. Do I want to risk my ratios? or does it matter? He's in Boston they score alot of runs or used too? Decisions, Decisions, Decsion time is the end of the line. It's the questions that are important.
Just for you Wayne from this afternoon's Cape League playoff game.
David Robertson, R ,Closer from from Tuscaloosa, plays for the Tide.
PRE-Game STATS
0-2 2.79, 29.0 IP's, 20 BB's, 46 K's
It's not a typo-- Fortysix K's in 29 innings.
K'd the side 1, 2, 3, in the top of the ninth to preserve a 6-5 victory and his team moves on to the Chamionship round.
Some great OF play. Three thrown out at the plate and a LF'd nailed a guy at second from the corner, one bounce, and on the bag.
A catcher named Babineau looked good too. He had two of the three PO's at home. Threw out one would be thief and was quicker than both our cats for two assists at first and picked off another runner from first on a rundown he intiated.
P.S. Brag a little!!? Sounds like you need a second job to feed the "Monster."
Oh Yeah. Almost forgot. Johnson was a Shandler pick. Harang, R. Lopez, JJ. One out of three is about what I do.
[ August 11, 2006, 12:58 PM: Message edited by: Kevin D ]
Just for you Wayne from this afternoon's Cape League playoff game.
David Robertson, R ,Closer from from Tuscaloosa, plays for the Tide.
PRE-Game STATS
0-2 2.79, 29.0 IP's, 20 BB's, 46 K's
It's not a typo-- Fortysix K's in 29 innings.
K'd the side 1, 2, 3, in the top of the ninth to preserve a 6-5 victory and his team moves on to the Chamionship round.
Some great OF play. Three thrown out at the plate and a LF'd nailed a guy at second from the corner, one bounce, and on the bag.
A catcher named Babineau looked good too. He had two of the three PO's at home. Threw out one would be thief and was quicker than both our cats for two assists at first and picked off another runner from first on a rundown he intiated.
P.S. Brag a little!!? Sounds like you need a second job to feed the "Monster."
Oh Yeah. Almost forgot. Johnson was a Shandler pick. Harang, R. Lopez, JJ. One out of three is about what I do.
[ August 11, 2006, 12:58 PM: Message edited by: Kevin D ]
"All of Life is part of the Divine"---Ancient Hindu saying
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Speaking of the right time to play guys, I just want to say all Kendrick owners can thank me for blessing him with my stolen base curse. It works like this: upon entering my active lineup all players immediately cease and desist all running activities. I don't even think they run on 3-2 with two outs if they're on my roster.
Kendrick is joined by such luminaries as Macier Izturis, Jason Bay, Scott Podsednik, Kenny Lofton, and Joe Mauer. I could put these guys against a catching platoon of Mike Piazza and Victor Martinez for the entire week and not get any stolen bases.
Kendrick is joined by such luminaries as Macier Izturis, Jason Bay, Scott Podsednik, Kenny Lofton, and Joe Mauer. I could put these guys against a catching platoon of Mike Piazza and Victor Martinez for the entire week and not get any stolen bases.
Chance favors the prepared mind.