Draft Slots mean nothing!

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 3:53 pm

Before this years draft everyone was saying the 4th spot was the kiss of death. Than the season started. As far as I can tell from my leagues no draft spot mattered. It came down to drafting the best player available and picking up a good free agent or two. A random draw works just as well as any other system.

cindy · Post by **cindy** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:13 pm

couldn't be further from the truth. the fact that some of you are more accepting of being randomly placed where you'll draft rather than having some control over it blows my mind. can players get hurt and take away that advantage? sure. but if they don't, there is a definite advantage to getting a crack at one of the top 5 players next year. if some of you don't care where you pick than just don't bid on those spots and accept picking at the end. seems easy, let those that want some control have it and those that don't, not.

viper · Post by **viper** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 3:09 am

For each of the first two seasons, I have looked at where the top teams finish. In the past I looked at the draft slot of the top 3 teams in each league. The better spots are the middle, the front and, lastly, the back.

My own opinion of the reasons are because the better teams take advantage of drafting mistakes by others. They are made throughout the draft. The longer between picks, the more opportunity for mistakes. When it is 10 picks from your selection, there will be a number of players you feel should be steals if they make it to you. Inevitably, one of those guys will slip. Those drafting in the middle have the maximum number of time to have a player slip. Essentially it happens in every round after the 1st. Those drafting on the ends of the snake have just one pick with "droppage" but the other pick hasn't had enough interemdiate selections to see the type of slippage needed. Of the two ends, the front end is better if only because there are 4-6 players that typically are that much better projected fantasy-wise.

Drafting in the middle allows for you to somewhat go with the flow of the draft. You can wait on some specific positions like closers. You don't need to anticipate a run because at least half the draft will be participating in the run after you regardless of when the run starts. On the ends you need a more defined plan. If you miss that closer run by a pick or two, it may be 25 picks until you can jump in. This may or may not be important but, there can be no doubt, it does effect your drafting decisions.

It comes down to how good your lists are and how closely to projections your players preform. Some drafting philosophies are better than others and they are all tried in these events.

The foundation to winning is a solid draft where all categories are covered to some extent. As the season rolls, health is likely more critical than any other factor. Anyone drafted in your first 10 rounds cannot be adequately be replaced. You must use your FAAB wisely, sometimes "overspending" to fill needs. You need to make wise pitching decisions and, most of all, you need luck.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 6:07 am

Seems to me to be a mute point- that BBDS is already off the table for 07 despite an overwhelming majority of the people who post here seem to want it.

I am not a big decision science guy but I would not think this is not a big enough sample to use to make a change but it is a big enough sample to at least put a poll out to all 330 people and see what they say.

Greg- how about putting a poll out, and committing that if at least 2/3 of the people favor BBDS that you will at least consider it for 07?

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 6:14 am

viper,

Well put. Your rationale makes total sense even if someone's numbers prove otherwise. Too many people get jumpy...I know I did last year in the #1 spot. The only negative to the middle is that because the ends do get jumpy, you not only get mistakes, but guys end up going a lot earlier than you had anticipated. In my draft, Granderson, Drew, and M.Bradley come to mind. I really though 1 or 2 of those guys could last to the 11 or 12th round.

viper · Post by **viper** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 7:05 am

nydownunder ... and "guys end up going a lot earlier than you had anticipated" is a problem because?

What will happen is that you may find "sleepers" getting taken early. There are not really any sleepers in this information age but everyone rates these guys at different levels of "sleepiness". People wanting that sleeper may take him much earlier than you expected as they know he would be gone some 25 selections later.

My personal view is that after the 10th round it really does not matter much where you draft. There are not really any clear cut strategies after 150 players are off the board. Everyone's draft goes its own way based on the foundation those first 10 picks created. Major hitting emphasis means the next 10 picks stress pitchers. Teams that took five pitchers suddenly concentrate on hitters. In a sense, you end up with two separate concurrent drafts. One is for pitching and the other for hitting.

JEagle · Post by **JEagle** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:13 am

i dont see the big deal.. picking high doesnt mean u will have better team..I'm sure if we redrafted right now guys like Soriano, Howard & Dye would go higher then top picks like Arod, Tex, & Bay..you never know what can happen from year to year and the random draft order is how its always been. draft position is the least of what needs to go into this to win and to waste precious faabs on a draft instead of players jus isnt logical.i dont really care what position i draft in just give me a chair and a drink

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 11:57 am

Originally posted by JEagle:

i dont see the big deal.. picking high doesnt mean u will have better team..I'm sure if we redrafted right now guys like Soriano, Howard & Dye would go higher then top picks like Arod, Tex, & Bay..you never know what can happen from year to year and the random draft order is how its always been. draft position is the least of what needs to go into this to win and to waste precious faabs on a draft instead of players jus isnt logical.i dont really care what position i draft in just give me a chair and a drink Hear, hear.

Some of you guys are in an awful rush to get next year's Tex or A-Rod.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:30 pm

Originally posted by JEagle:

i dont see the big deal.. picking high doesnt mean u will have better team..I'm sure if we redrafted right now guys like Soriano, Howard & Dye would go higher then top picks like Arod, Tex, & Bay..you never know what can happen from year to year and the random draft order is how its always been. draft position is the least of what needs to go into this to win and to waste precious faabs on a draft instead of players jus isnt logical.i dont really care what position i draft in just give me a chair and a drink Not trying to be a wise guy here- serious question. Would you not like Blind Bidding then because if you feel like you can draft from anywhere then me and 7 other guys at the table will blow some FAAB. I have said before if we used it this year my goal would have been to avoid 13 through 15 nothing else.

JEagle · Post by **JEagle** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:49 pm

just seems like we try and micro manage every facet of this game..i play by whatever rules are in place..i just dont think we need to make every part of the game a strategy..random order just adds an elemnt of surprise that these leagues pretty much dont have...i can understand both arguements i just feel like random has always worked so if it aint broke dont fix it.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:10 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by JEagle:

i dont see the big deal.. picking high doesnt mean u will have better team..I'm sure if we redrafted right now guys like Soriano, Howard & Dye would go higher then top picks like Arod, Tex, & Bay..you never know what can happen from year to year and the random draft order is how its always been. draft position is the least of what needs to go into this to win and to waste precious faabs on a draft instead of players jus isnt logical.i dont really care what position i draft in just give me a chair and a drink Not trying to be a wise guy here- serious question. Would you not like Blind Bidding then because if you feel like you can draft from anywhere then me and 7 other guys at the table will blow some FAAB. I have said before if we used it this year my goal would have been to avoid 13 through 15 nothing else. [/QUOTE]Yeah, I had a problem with it before, but I'm starting to just see it as one more way to take advantage of inefficeincy of other owners. At the same time when it comes to fun, isn't it kind of fun to learn where your drafft spot is.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:43 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Seems to me to be a mute point- that BBDS is already off the table for 07 despite an overwhelming majority of the people who post here seem to want it.I think we have a small sample size for this analysis Chest. If I made decisions based on the loudest message board posts, I'd be a foolish manager, don't you think? Yes, I'll consider all rules proposals and take the temperature of the participants if needed, but something this drastic needs to be tested in side events before being rolled out to the masses.

The draft spots are important, no question about it. But guys like Alfonso Soriano and Jose Reyes went at the end of the first round this year and those owners who were wise enough to get them are probably faring better than some owners who had top five picks. Trust me, I want you guys to be as happy with your draft spots as you do, but this isn't as easy as hearing 10 guys push BBDS for the main event and then saying "okay."

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:49 am

why not Greg ?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 6:42 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Seems to me to be a mute point- that BBDS is already off the table for 07 despite an overwhelming majority of the people who post here seem to want it.I think we have a small sample size for this analysis Chest. If I made decisions based on the loudest message board posts, I'd be a foolish manager, don't you think? Yes, I'll consider all rules proposals and take the temperature of the participants if needed, but something this drastic needs to be tested in side events before being rolled out to the masses.

The draft spots are important, no question about it. But guys like Alfonso Soriano and Jose Reyes went at the end of the first round this year and those owners who were wise enough to get them are probably faring better than some owners who had top five picks. Trust me, I want you guys to be as happy with your draft spots as you do, but this isn't as easy as hearing 10 guys push BBDS for the main event and then saying "okay." [/QUOTE]Please reread my whole post- I acknowledged that this was too small of a sample size, I simply requested an attempt to get the temperature of a larger sample size.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:30 pm

BTW: if Draft Position means nothing? why not humor those of us who think it does?

Spy