Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:18 am

Week Three Results – I don’t have weeks like this one past. It is not like I sacrificed a virgin (I live in Georgia…tough to find one!) or something. I hit all of my targets but two and two of the ones I hit, I obliterated. And I am doing it in a strange way (maybe one of the reasons I cannot find a virgin to sacrifice) with regards to offense. For example, leading my team in homefuns is Neil Walker (6). Leading my team in runs (15) and RBIs (16), is the dynamic duo of Kevin Kouzmanoff (last week) and Trevor Plouffe (first two weeks). My weakest stat provider in the corner is actually Longoria despite his .324 BA. Times be good but we all know “winter is coming” (yes, lame “Game of Thrones” reference…so shoot me…I am giddy!). Right now, though, I feel “smart”. Not MtM smart...but smart...

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For the week on offense, I got my 300+ AB (327 for the week and for the three full periods 935) with a solid 0.275 BA. My target is approximately 10 HR a week and last week I got 18, led by Walker (4) and Morneau (3 and also had 12 RBIs) with everyone contributing except Avila, Escobar and Pagan. I have had some months where I have only gotten 18! I got 45 runs scored (good enough to put me on target for the month) and 59 RBIs, which may be a Kings record. Lagging yet again is SB with only two. I am falling farther and farther behind already in speed. With Ortiz in my UT and with a stacked outfield, I may have screwed up in reverse. I need speed and most of available speed in the FA pool is in the OF. Once Boston starts some interleague play, I can sit Ortiz for a half week. I am not sitting Pagan (already one of my best SB sources) or Myers (yes, I was lucky enough to stay with him and rode him and others to a Saturday night to remember!), or Choo or Justin Upton or Gomez (gonna miss him when he is suspended!). I need a real speedy infielder that is for sure especially as MI is my weakest position right now, Walker accepted.

Better days on pitching, too. Minimal games started (8) but had great outings from Weaver and Lester. Lincebum was also serviceable. And whatever juice Cueto was on last week, gimme a double! Despite the bad starts from Nolasco and Feldman (knew those would be coming), I hit my K target (53) and win target (4). K’s may have to be adjusted way if the current sick rate continues. Last year, you needed about 1,375 K’s to take 80% of the available points in the category, or about 53 a week. The current run rate for 80% is 59. Six K’s may not sound like much, but that represents an 11% increase. It is early so we (or I) cannot know if this is a trend or a hot month (somebody else may have K’s by month for recent MLB seasons), but in any regard there are hurricane level breezes in ballparks right now. The week ERA (3.396) and WHIP (1.208) were definite improvements, but not enough to bring me in line with expectations. And saves. ZERO for the week. Really hurting and really behind for the year. It is early, but ditching saves may be considered soon as I am wasting roster spots on Qualls as well as DL’d Nate Jones and Jesse Crain, both of which at best may be decent closers on bad teams. Glen Perkins, my closer “stud” got in two innings of work for the lousy Twins last week. Not good.

Talking about pitching and closers just sucked the giddy clean away….

Week Four FAAB – I need to upgrade my MI, hopefully with speed and none was really available. Only one MI was taken last week (Schoop), whom I really don’t see as much help for me as he only stole five bases in the minors over the last two years (and only one in the minors in 2013). Young guy with decent potential, just not with speed. Bourjos has played he way out of yet another golden opportunity, so I was going to drop him. With no MI speed really out there, I thought I might sit on Tyler Flowers to see if he could be an upgrade to Avila (who, by the way, sucks royally). I bid $9, but came in second to a $22 winning bid. It was just a flyer for me, so no big deal. I ended up trading Bourjos for Jay ($6 with no second place bid), who is getting the better of the platoon right now. I also considered Maybin, Shuck, and Denorfia, all of whom were picked up. For whatever reason, I ranked Jay higher, though the other three went for more (sometimes much) than $6.

I dropped Qualls (late but like a bad habit). I placed a minor bid ($7) on Keuchel who has two decent looking starts this week. Not really excited about another Houston pitcher to go with Feldman, but thought he was certainly worth a flyer. Was outbid by a smarter fantasy player, so maybe I should have gone deeper. Not sure I would have bid to top the $38 winning bid under any but the most desperate circumstances. I had a string of $1 conditionals beginning with Fields, who instead went for $19. I ended up with Putz again. Reed, like most of the rest of the Diamondbacks, is way underperforming. It could happen!

Week Four Plans – I am ok with sticking with Sanchez (ole “Five-and-Out”), Weaver (hope his team can carry him though to date his K-rate is up and hit rate is down…good combo), Lester (great K-rate, better control), Cueto (over his head high K and low hit rate…but a breakout could help carry this team), and Lincecum (he is striking them out, not walking them, but is getting hit more frequently than Rocky Balboa).

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The rest are a train wreck waiting to happen (Nolasco, Feldman, and Young), but I may roll the dice and start all three. None have the requisite K-rate, but maybe I can get two starts worth of strike outs in their combined four games. Otherwise Putz in in for one of them.

I will continue to ride a hot Kouzmanoff for the first half of the week (Beltre is due back when Texas is in Seattle next weekend, effectively ending Kouzmanoff’s short term viability), though Plouffe has played really well (for Plouffe). It looks like the Yanks will continue to find ways to start Solarte somewhere on the infield, so he will probably start over Yunel Escobar who has scored only one run, had one RBI, and one homerun (basically if I had him in for one AB over three weeks I would have captured his YTD stat contribution). Talk about empty. Cozart is not as bad as his stats currently make him (yes, I am taking a knee right here in the office praying that is true), so I will stick with him this week. Did I mention I needed MI help? Otherwise, I know the wheels will come off Morneau and Walker at some point. Recognizing that point before I ride them too long will be the trick.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Doctor Who » Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:35 am

I'm with you on the closers Wayne. Just seems like every year, there is less and less reliable closers. Even the so called good ones have questions marks, ala Kimbrel and Chapman. So I beat you to the punch. I said screw it and am giving up on them already this year.

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed Apr 23, 2014 12:25 pm

"FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that Willy Taveras is looking to make a return to the majors.
Tavares has a .363 OBP and is 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts in his first 18 games for Pericos de Puebla in the Mexican League this season. The 32-year-old hasn't appeared in the majors since 2010."

Finally the speed I have been looking for (I guess he learned how to steal first!). Rev up those FA engines! :lol:
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:42 am

Week 4 Results – My team was so set to finish the first four weeks strong, at least offensively, but as it happens so often, MLB managers, who do not give a crap about their fans, really submarined me (us). You would think that with most of the crowds coming Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, you would have your studs in. Yes, yes…I understand resting the catcher on Sunday’s day game when they played Saturday night, but it seems like it is everybody plays Tuesday/Thursday and “rest” in needed over the weekend. Sucks. That, with the Choo boo-boo, Solarte day-to-day, etc., etc. I could not get enough AB to get over the top. As such, I was just short on every offensive weekly target.

I list, for my tracking purposes, the four week April period as the end of my first monthly period. I am not setting the world on fire, but I am not dying either. I was on target for the month for all intents and purposes on four of my five targets. BA is at 0.274 (my team will end up BA challenged, so this will drop) as Pagan, Upon (the good one), Gomez, Morneau, and Plouffe/Kousmanoff really hit above expected in that department. R/HR/RBI are just a little under (runs) or really above the mark (HR and RBI’s). Upton, Morneau, and “King-Kong” Neil Walker are cranking dingers at a rate they will not keep up. A few (Longoria and Myers) could pick up the slack as the others cool off. Overall I am very happy with OF, CM, and UT. This is good because I focused there and spent some high draft choices. So far so good. Catcher, especially Avila, and MI (Escobar and Cozart) are sucking hind tit. I do not think they are as bad as they have shown, but I will be trolling for upgrades.

Pitching continues to be a severe disappointment. I lost Sanchez to what must be the worst blister known to man. I have no second closer with Jones/Crain taking longer to heal (big surprise) which brings out that Gomer in all of us…you know that brief, fleeting thought that says “…hey, he is hurt, but they say it is not too bad and he should be ready real soon!” And I am in last in Wins for my league and damn near last overall. Sanchez, Weaver, Lester, and Cueto may not be the best starting four in the NFBC, but to have only five wins in 22 games started is silly. The rest (Lincebum, Nolasco, Feldman and Young) that I have started are only 3/13. You need a 40%+ win rate. I am at 23%. I need to win the games I should win (i.e. Cueto yesterday against the Braves with 11 K’s in 8 shutout innings…no win) and I need to win some games I shouldn’t fast to catch up. The streaming options are thin right now. Otherwise, my starters are generating a surprising 91% K-rate, a respectable 2.7 K to BB rate (Weaver and Sanchez are walking too many), and a 95% hit rate (Lincebum and Nolasco have kept that higher than it should). My ERA and WHIP are high, but not so much that a couple of good starts (weeks?) can bring it in line.

Week 5 FAAB – I turned over 20% of my team this week. I had been relatively quiet. First, closers. I knew I would not be big on the Joe Smith. Anyone who has a name like a city councilman checking into a no-tell motel with his assistant cannot be that good. And I think Ernesto will be the man there again real soon. I looked this week cheaper option on a desperate team. With those parameters, Jose Valverde popped to the top. The Mets are player better baseball than people expected and unfortunately for them, Valverde is a better option than either Farnsworth or Daisuke. I got him for $31 with a confidence inspiring no second place bids (I was the only Main Event Team to pick him up). Now I have three potential closers on three potentially bad teams to go with Perkins. Imagine my delight.

Starting pitching was next. Nolasco has been nothing short of fantasy disaster. Hits and walks and no strikeouts. Gone. Chris Young actually had a good game for me (7 IP, 1.286 WHIP, 3.663 ERA on three earned runs but no win of course), but while the Yankees may not strike the fear they once did, Young going into Yankee Stadium was a Maalox Moment waiting to happen. I picked up Franklin Morales ($51 with a $19 second place bid) because I thought his two (@ARI and vs NYM) were the best streaming options. Yes, he can get lit up like a gas can, but he has strung together two good outings in a row (surprise, surprise Gomer!). Next I picked up Brandon Maurer (no one else was interested or had him further down on their conditional bids). They say Seattle will send him down soon. The Mariner rotation is not so strong that Maurer going to the minors is a given in my opinion. It may happen, but he gets the Astros in Houston. I expect better than what the other team in Texas did to him yesterday. Not to jinx it, but with these pick-ups, I have just seven healthy pitchers.

Next, I had three pick-ups on offense. I bid $89 on AJ Pollock, but Slopshots liked him better ($137). This could be a nick pick-up. I did not go stronger on him like I did in my Auction league where I got him for $122 because my OF situation (even with Choo day-to-day…right Gomer?) is pretty strong. My one conditional bid (and dropping Jon Jay) was for Bryce Harpers caddy, Nate McLouth. Remember when all the pundits (and Braves management) said this guy was for real? I got him for $31 (about average as 24 teams picked him up with bids ranging from $10 to $96 or about $35 on average) with a $25 runner-up bid. If I need him for Choo, he could get me a couple of steals I desperately need.

A moderate bid got me Andrew Romine ($13, no runner up). Not much of an upgrade at MI, but he may get a few steals. Take that, Yunel Escobar, who will probably go on a tear now. Solarte is also day-to-day, so I do not know if Romine will start until tomorrow. I also panic bidded on Robinson Chirinos ($41, no runner up and higher than anyone else from other leagues that invested). I was freaking with no back-up first baseman and with Avila playing so poorly. This year seems, even more than most, to be a war of attrition. I want to make sure I can generate the necessary AB. This may be a waste, but he does have three games at home versus Oakland early this week.

So, six new Kings, all of whom could start at least half a week.

Instead of plans, which are mainly around maximizing AB early in the week, four weeks of solid FA bidding numbers might make for more interesting read. In my league, we have had 106 successful bids. Of those, 55 had no runner up bid. Our cloudy crystal balls had us spending $833 on those players we could have gotten for $55 instead. Of the 51 winning bids that DID have competition, we spent $3,886 or stated differently, overpaid by $1,750. That is a 45% premium for the comfort. We have had 12 $100+ bids ranging from $121 to $349 with generally the same premium (46%) being paid. There are trends, too. From my bids above, you may think that by bidding $32, you could beat most of my bids. You would be correct…last week. I was testing what the data was suggesting. I already mentioned that 55 winning bids (48%) had no runner-up bids, so bid a buck and you have a 50/50 chance of winning. A bid of $31 has been successful 61% of the time ($30 FA bucks, 13% more chance of winning). So it all comes down to what is your risk tolerance. Bid $91 and the odds go up to 89%, but is it worth it as $71 gets 85%. All of this is only valid for a few more weeks. As long as people are above $100 or $200 FA dollars, they can still bid aggressively. In my experience, once two thirds or so of available dollars league wide are gone, then the bidding hits a new level (i.e. low, bargain hunting). My league has spent nearly 1/3 (31%) of available funds though no one is below $400 yet. Those June call-ups not already on rosters may still be very expensive. To date, I have only spent 25% of my bucks, so I am a little ahead of the pack. Of course, I am also in the third division. Maybe I should have spent $300 on F-Rod? Or maybe I need a new crystal ball?

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Doctor Who » Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:01 am

Know your pain, or should I say delight, on having to find the best streaming options every week. Do you have a rep that gives you cheaper Malox in bulk Wayne? Maybe we could go in and split it. By the way, maybe you didn't mention it for a reason :D but what place is this team in?

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Apr 28, 2014 10:13 am

My league-mates have me in the corner with Mohamed, Sidney, Judgdish and Clayton. Right now I am in 11th place in my league.

Here is my contact for bulk Maalox...just no sudden moves, ok?

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by slopshot » Mon Apr 28, 2014 2:48 pm

Wayne,
I wasn't crazy about throwing over 100 bucks out for Pollock but with two of my top five picks out with thumb injuries I had no choice. I think he was the best OF available so I went after him, my conditional guy did not even get a buck bid on him.

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Apr 28, 2014 2:58 pm

slopshot wrote:Wayne,
I wasn't crazy about throwing over 100 bucks out for Pollock but with two of my top five picks out with thumb injuries I had no choice. I think he was the best OF available so I went after him, my conditional guy did not even get a buck bid on him.
I agree, he was the best OFer out there and that is why I wanted to make someone pay at least $90 to get him. Sucks to have the injuries, Chris, but Pollock may be able to generate enough to keep the boat in the water. One of those "get lucky/get hot" players.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon May 05, 2014 8:39 am

Week 5 Results – Limes are not the only thing that there is a shortage of for Cinco de Mayo (never understood why there was a celebration for mayonnaise…I mean I like the stuff…but ok…any reason for a party). The week did not bring a lot of change to my team. David Ortiz is still relatively MIA especially with his BA. You never want to be the guy holding the bag with the HOFer plays past his abilities and I am afraid I may be that guy this year. He has not been that bad and hopefully could still heat up. Middle infield still is an achilles heel with some pretty empty results for me though BA was pretty good. Category-wise, I am falling further behind in stolen bases, probably the biggest concern of all that I have. During the draft, I thought I had drafted a decent base (Gomez, Pagan, Choo, Justin Upton) and needed to catch some sneaky speed late. They must be real sneaky because they haven’t come out of hiding yet. For the week, BA was “OK” at 0.268. Won’t help me, won’t kill me. Only three stolen bases. Hit or exceeded the other offensive counting stats. For the year, I am up in power and RBI’s and just under the mark in Runs. I expended some very high draft picks (to the exclusion of pitching) to make sure I was near the top. At the draft, I counted on big bats early and hoped to catch lightning in a bottle with one of my later picks. So far, the leading candidate for “Kid Lightning” is Justin Morneau. He is just raking.

My best week yet for pitching despite the fact I got only one save (Perkins). Another year, another struggle for saves. The news on Nate Jones surgery does not make the picture any brighter. Crain is pitching again so I could be in line soon for ALL of those Astro saves waiting to happen. I ended up with only eight starts, but got six wins and could have had seven (Nolasco pitched an ever-more beautiful game) though two of the wins were from, shall we say, lackluster efforts by Brandon Maurer and Franklin Morales. Lester and Cueto pitched like gods. For the week I had a 3.416 ERA with 56 K’s and a 1.157 WHIP. The way some teams have been pitching, this would be an average or disappointing week. It has me ready to pop the champagne. OK. You got me. It had me ready to open a beer and dine on pickled eggs with a Slim Jim kicker, but you get the picture. By the way, in case you haven’t heard, do not use your Slim Jim as a swizzle stick to stir your wifes’ cocktail. Might make the SJ taste better, but they get upset by that. Unreasonable creatures.

Anyway, Anibal Sanchez will be back for the seventh full stat period, at least per the reports. That will help.

Week 6 FAAB – It was a quiet week in my league. Of the twenty-four winning bids, only three were greater than $18. Only six had runner-up bids. There were a few interesting drops that I will be in on, though at best they are from the bargain bin at the Dollar Store.

What I needed (closers, speed, solid starters) were thin on the ground as far as FA go. I did drop Nate Jones and picked up Chad Qualls. I drafted Qualls, who promptly blew up. Everyone else in the Houston bullpen has blown up, Fields being the latest, so Qualls has a chance to prove he cannot do it again. I bid $3 with no second place bid. Franklin Morales was my big purchase last week. He had been pitching well and had two promising starts last week. He got me a win, but also an 8.100 ERA, 1.900 WHIP and only seven K’s. I dropped him like a bad habit and picked up another bad habit, Brandon McCarthy. Likewise he has posted some good stats against some struggling teams. I feel I am chasing stats like a dog chasing his tail. I am just a little behind and even if I do catch it, what will I have and what will I do with it. I bid $13 and there was no runner-up.

For the year, I have been active, but with moderate bids. Ranking my prior weeks:

Franklin Morales $51 – Bust. Waste. Stupid. Want a do-over. See stats he got me over one week above. Gone.
Robinson Chirinos $51 – Used him last week. Had empty BA over 10 AB. Bench meat at best.
Nate McLouth $31 – I “won” him last week but did not use him. Good for me. 0-fer-10.
Kevin Kousmanoff $31 – Was able to get 35 AB out of him over a couple of periods until he got hurt. Batted 0.343 with two homers, seven runs scored and nine RBI’s. Not the worst $31 FA bucks I have spent. Gone.
Jose Valverde $31 – Stop laughing. Still have him on my bench.
Brandon Maurer $31 – Stunk it up last week, but got a win. Kind of like getting laid by an ugly girl. Nothing to brag about. Still has upside I think if Seattle doesn’t yank his choke-chain too soon.
Andrew Romine $13 – Hoping to see some of his speed. Will probably play him this week, at least early.
Chris Young $11 – Used the pitching version for one start and he did real well (3.857/1.286/6 K’s but no win) for a streamer. I was not willing to trust him further. Gone.
Jon Jay $6 – Drafted Bourjos and dropped him to pick up Jay. Nothing to see. Moved on. Gone.
Yangervis Solarte $3 – Hot early, empty lately. Better on my bench, but I have too few options. Will not offer the speed I need. Just solid, average.
JJ Putz $1 and $1 – Picked up twice as consolation prizes. Gone. Twice.

I have spent 26.7% of my FA budget and do not have too much to show for the effort.

Week 6 Plans – Avila woke up a bit while on my bench. He goes in as my No. 2 over Chirinos as Detroit is at home with seven games against Houston (4) and Minnesota (3). Hoping for at least five games caught. OF, Corners and Utility all set with Choo seemingly over the ankle (had a SB yesterday). Walker and Solarte will be my middle infield with Romine starting at least early this week due to those same four home games against Houston over Cozart and his two games in Boston. Once again I have exactly seven healthy starting pitchers and I am looking at only eight starts again. McCarthy in Chicago against the White Sox and Maurer at home versus the Royals are this week’s streamers. Qualls becomes my second closer again. To date, I have gotten one save out of my second closer slot with 10 K’s over nine IP with an ERA of 12.000 and a WHIP of 2.778. YeeeHaw!!!! I am not ready to give up on closers just yet. As long as my K’s hold up (I am on target there) I will keep trying as there is opportunity in a vacuum. So many are having problems, I think I can still get mid-pack, which is better than last. Eight of us in my league have 13 Saves or less.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Doctor Who » Mon May 05, 2014 8:48 am

If they are laughing at your $31 spent on Valverde, they must be putting ski masks on when looking at my $300 bid on him. Know you and I feel the same way on Papi. I'm not ready to give up on him yet though. As long as he is healthy, that Boston lineup has to get going at some point, and he should be a big part of it. His homers have been there, but the AVG and RBI's seem way low. Hopefully that just means they come in bunches! :D

P.S.- Just give up on those stupid so called closers already! Come to the dark side Wayne! Maybe we can take on the world if we play a zone rather than man to man...

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon May 05, 2014 11:33 am

wagner13454 wrote:P.S.- Just give up on those stupid so called closers already! Come to the dark side Wayne! Maybe we can take on the world if we play a zone rather than man to man...
I appreciate what you are saying and I have given it thought, but I cannot pull the plug yet. There are reasonably 5 to 8 points available in my league if I can latch that second (or third) semi-reliable and/or semi-effective and/or semi-breathing closer. That would also be about 200 points in the overall if I can climb to mid-pack.

If there were really solid starters out there or if I had them on my bench, maybe. After my top four or five starters, things get real dicey real fast. The risk of further damaging my ERA/WHIP is too great to go all starters given the available talent (including the talent or lack of in the owner). :lol:

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Doctor Who » Mon May 05, 2014 12:26 pm

Image


Well fine then. But you know what this means now. You are dead to me!

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon May 05, 2014 2:06 pm

:lol: 8-)

"Thank you Mr. Wonderful. I appreciate your time and respect your opinion." :P
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon May 12, 2014 9:25 am

Somebody was mad at Ron Shandler for having the gall to write that if you were not at a certain point in your standings, your odds of winning your league are significantly higher. To a certain extent, it is true, though much of what Ron writes is not necessarily aimed at the NFBC, which is a format he is not as interested in as he might be in others. So, for the NFBC, how do you improve your odds if you are not in contention right now? It is not too late to say it is still early, but it is not too early to really look at your team(s) and try to decide if changes, some radical, need to be made or else old Ron may just be right.

A subjective review of how the individual players on your team are doing is the most important task right now, I think, and unfortunately is also the hardest. The subjection makes it hard. If you excuse an analogy from the “The Big Chill”, what is more important? Sex or rationalization? The answer most usually given is sex, but the comeback is, when was the last time you went a week without a rationalization?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9FJiDFVoOo

Assessments of your team are laden with rationalization. Are the players overachieving in the short term, or are they on their way to career years? Are the players short-term unlucky and will come around, or is it time to cut your losses? Do you have the fortitude to cut a high draft pick that is underperforming? This is tough for me. It is almost like admitting I was wrong (and we, of course, are never wrong). Still, we have to move on if we are not in the top tier and still want a chance to win.

But to where do we move? For me, after separating the sheep from the goats, it is about where I can make a move, category-wise, and which players have the best chance to get me there. For example with my Main Event, strikeouts are about on target and WHIP is not too far off, even though I have sucked at streaming pitchers so far. If you remember, I waited forever to get my first pitcher, and she has already been on the DL (Anibal Sanchez). That makes the K’s number quite surprising, so in an honest assessment, will I continue to hit my targets based on how weel my two, three, and four starting pitchers are doing (resurging Weaver and Lester, with Cueto). I have more faith in Cueto than the other two though Lester is showing signs of regaining form. Lincecum has been a bust, but I just do not know if I can find his K’s potential in the FA pool. He makes it difficult too because I am nowhere near where I need to be in ERA. That means all I need out of my streaming five, six, and seven options is decent strikeout rate with good ERA. No problem. They are low hanging fruit in the FA pool. :roll:

Wins are down and honestly much of that is bad luck. I am confident that the YTD 33% win percentage I am stuck with will improve (yes, I believe in regression to the mean). Also, at this stage, there are six wins in my league between 12 points and where I am (4 points). That is not a huge gulf, and while I will not be able to make that up in one week, shooting for an extra win a week or so is not an unsurmountable challenge. Saves, however, are killing me. Glen Perkins just had a good week and he could even hit 40 saves on a weak Twinkie team, but right now I am only invested in Houston closers as a second option. Though I had a good week, I am basically three weeks behind six weeks in. The only silver lining is others are also in bad shape. I may never hit my pre-season goals, but I can still see getting 8 to 10 points out of the category. I have the money and if I can free up a reserve spot or two, I will continue to invest here. Maybe one of those pigs-in-a-poke will hit.

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I am doing much better with my sticks, which should be the case as I invested heavily here. Batting average continues to be OK, but I am not fooling myself. To maintain decent points here, I have to move away from the black holes like Cozart. Home runs, RBI’s and Runs scored are on target if not a little over, and that is with Ortiz, Myers, and Longoria only now showing a little life. When Gomez and Morneau cool (and they will), hopefully those others will counterbalance. In all I have had a decent surprise in Solarte. Looks like he will continue to get AB all over the infield.

I am desperate for steals though if there were a category to cash in on, it will be this one. An improvement of eleven steals would only net me three points. IF, BIG IF, I could crawl up to that level, the next nine steals cover seven more points. I need more and I need it now or else just go bigger on the other counting stats.

I made a huge jump Sunday (seven overall league points) to sixth place. I need to hold those gains and grow to the next level. I do not think anyone in my league is truly out of it but my success will only come if I can address my pitching and speed needs.

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I feel the need...the need for speed!

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Or is this more your speed...hmmm...Danica....

Week 7 FAAB – A few people have given up on DJ LeMahieu. He is only owned in about 71% of the leagues. He is not quite getting the AB other second basemen are getting and he has only three stolen bases (caught twice). Did I mention I was desperate for speed? I was high on him as a cheap source of speed early and was actually glad when the fabulous Mr. X dropped him last week. I had to curb my irrational exuberance to make sure I did not leave too much money out there wasted. I was not sure who else might try to grab him and somehow ended up on a $15 bid. Someone ranked ahead of me was in that same frame of mind as the second place bid was also $15. No wasted money there.

Then pitching. I was outbid on Floyd ($48 to my $32), Pomeranz ($99 and I was not even close), and Vogelsong ($25 to my $13). I ended up winning Feldman (second conditional $4) and Nuno (first conditional $13). I also took Danks ($32, no second place bid). I was targeting mainly two start pitchers with reasonable match-ups. All in all…I would rate these an “ehhhh!”

Week 7 Plans – I have no idea when Gomez will hear about the suspension, but I suspect soon. The Brewers are off today, so it may be Tuesday. He got hit in the hand and my miss a couple of days anyway, so I am benching him for the first half of the week (hopefully the suspension will be during that time) and playing McLouth. I probably should start Ludwick as McLouth has been hurt or ineffective since subbing for Harper, but like I said, I need steals and McLough has a better chance to steal one or two. Plouffe has sucked swamp water for weeks now after a good start. I am sitting him, moving Solarte into his spot until he gets back on track and may do that later this week. LeMahieu gets a start though I lose a game (Colorado has Monday and Thursday off). I need steals. I need STEALS and would start just about anyone who can get me them.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon May 12, 2014 1:16 pm

Closers. We have grown to hate the category, or at least I have. I have spent so much time looking for decent options through the FA pool, and according to my memory, only one purchase (not by me) seemed to hit, and it was expensive. The odds never seem to be in your favor, so I stream “closer-in-waiting” du jours. In our hunt for saves (the only reason to buy a closer), it is really hit or miss.

My league has spent to date roughly 11% of available FA budgets on non-starters. That represents 32 players bought by ten teams for a total of just under $1,700. Of those, nearly half (15 costing $332) have never made it into a lineup. Lower value, most of these appear to be buy and hold before getting the ninth inning job.

Of the 17 that have made it in (costing in total $1,360), nine have generated at least one save. Those nine represent $1,050 of budget of six teams and ranged in cost from $302 to $3. The biggest winner, saves-wise, bought Francisco Rodriguez for $259 and has gotten 13 saves to date. The other eight saves-generators split the remaining 20 with no one getting more than five to date. And of the nine, three have already lost the moniker.

Meaning? Not much other than there just does not seem to be much bang for the buck. By the way, I was the guy who got a “closer” for $3. Qualls (2 saves). Who I also drafted and released. Smart….
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon May 19, 2014 8:30 am

I do not really want to write this. In a bad mood. Things did not pan out the way I wanted. Best laid plans of mice and men. The poem by Scotsman Robert Burns that the anglicized version comes from kind of describes (in a small, minor way) the feeling of trying to predict baseball.

“But Mousie, thou art no thy lane,
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best-laid schemes o' mice an' men
Gang aft agley,
An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promis'd joy!
Still thou are blest, compared wi' me!
The present only toucheth thee:
But och! I backward cast my e'e,
On prospects drear!
An' forward, tho' I canna see,
I guess an' fear!”

You know I am in a bad mood when I am quoting Scottish poets. And moving forward in literary time to Steinbeck’s “Of Mice and Men”, I am definitely Lennie Small.

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I started feeling this way when my two brilliant streaming pitchers, Vidal Nuno and John Danks, started racking up earned runs at a pinball-like rate that would cause enough flashing lights to induce seizure. Four starts between the two, seventeen earned runs, a 7.650 ERA with a 1.800 WHIP. Then Carlos Gomez strains his back, plays sad puppy by sunfishing his belly to the MLB powers at be to get his suspension over with, then plays the “In or Not In” game because he got sick on his mini vacation. That is ok. I started Nate McLouth for his speed…one whopping SB…to go with his four hits and zippo everything else.

I had eleven games started last week and barely hit my normal win target. That is nice, but I needed to pick up some ground and two of those wins came from closers. Eleven games started, two wins. Qualls was named closer in Houston and I still couldn’t hit my normal saves target.

On batting, Avila, Castro, Walker, Longoria, Choo, McLouse, Myers, and Justin Upton all hit less than 0.250. Otiz (4 HR, 10 R, 6 RBI), Solarte (a really good early FA pick up with 3 HR, 8 R), and Pagan (3 SB) carried my counting stats. Just a blah week where I did not dig my hole deeper, but I made no progress in making up ground in wins, saves, ERA, WHIP, or SB.

Week 8 FAAB – Here is where I thought I had it figured out and missed totally. For the first time ever for me, I had bid on a pitcher and had five conditionals and did not win a single bid. Danks gets to ride the pine for me this week until I cut him. Actually, I did not get my first choice in any of my bids. My consolation prize in the NYM closer lottery was Jose Valverde, which still may end up paying some dividends on my $3 winning bid. He may not produce good peripherals, but I still think he will have the job at some point. Mejia was the person we all wanted, but my bid reflected the fact I think he will not be the closer much. Mejia went for $165 to someone smarter than me, so I am probably wrong there.

We had, in our league, a couple of other pitchers who drained some teams resources. Montero ($111), Nicasio ($101), Jaimie Garcia ($77), Doolittle ($67), Odorizzi ($55), DeSclafani ($46) and Tepesch ($33) plus $51 won the Zach Britton lottery. I was in on a couple of those starters, but not to that level.

My big push was for Villar, who was made available last week. I am not overly impressed with Villar, but very few players could impact my SB situation better than he can/could. I really dug into the other teams rosters and available FA budget to see who I thought my main completion would be. Most either had rosters full of starting talent at MI, were short money, or were doing well enough in SB to consider other areas of more concern. My list came up with four no-name fantasy talents. Greg Glukhovsky (Worst Russians Ever) were kind of a dark horse as they have a solid MI with a bench spot being taken up with Javier Baez, but they had sufficient funds and were in a fairly tight pack where a few SB could net two or three points. Bob Particelli (The Pale King) also had enough money, was actually doing nearly as bad as me in the category and two of his four MI (Miller and Hicks) were replaceable to me. Dave Potts (Low Talkers) had money and pretty stable MI, but needed SB help. And finally, Glenn Lowy (Glenneration X) had the funds, was in that SB pack I mentioned above, and only had Scooter Gennett standing in Villar’s way to starting.

So, what bid would win the battle? I thought there would be several middling bids. In our league prior to last Sunday, a $51 bid would win 80% of the time, so I knew I had to go higher. $91 would get you 90%, but still this was a potential SB machine. Of the prior 167 winning bids, only 13 had cracked the $100 level, most of which had been starters and closers. Seven bids had cracked $200 and two of those were by someone who I did not think would be playing that deep in the pool for Villar. I settled on a bid of $203, giving me I thought a 99% chance to win without gutting my ability to purchase other impact players, like pitchers. I always wanted to be one of the one-percenters, and I finally got my wish. The 1% came in and I lost on a $240 bid by the fabulous Mr. X. My bid was runner-up. Glenn is a real nice guy and a good friend. You know, he is the kind of guy that if you showed up at his house with a dead body, he would simply say “Hold on…let me put the kids to bed and get my shovel!” But sometimes he just pisses me off. :lol: I mean, it was real nice letting me have another chance at LeMahieu, but this one stings.

I have another friend who will remind me of all the times he said I am too conservative. He is probably right. I thought I had this one figured out.

“An' forward, tho' I canna see,
I guess an' fear!”

Oh, well. I still have LeMahieu and I will figure something out.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Bama » Mon May 19, 2014 10:26 am

Look on the bright side, Mr X just wasted 24 percent of his Faab budget on a guy who gonna hurt him in 4 cats and you still got more bullets to help your team and the super 2 deadline is still not here. Patience is a virtue and just gotta hope your timing is right on the pickups. 203 is about a hundred more than I would have went in the same circumstance but kudo's for trying to get a guy that you thought that would make a difference but sometimes somebody just wants to gamble more than you and that might not turn out to be a bad thing.

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue May 20, 2014 9:12 am

Thanks Champ.

Really only two people have more money than me after last week. The Super 2's are gonna cost someone bigtime... 8-)
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Glenneration X » Sat May 24, 2014 4:06 pm

Hey Wayne, I'd have to agree with the Champ here that you should probably feel lucky that I overbid on Villar.
After all, I think he's 0-20 since making my roster. :?

One thing we all can agree on though.....

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...that deep seeded need for SPEED!!!! ;)

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue May 27, 2014 7:21 am

Crying over spilt beer never does any good. But I am . I have fouled my pitching staff royally. I could write a book titled “Streaming Pitchers and Sewage Treatment: A Analogous Relationship”. Or “How Two Pitching Spots Can End Your Delusions of Grandeur!”. After eight full weeks, almost a third of the season, my team ERA sat at 4.041 with a WHIP of 1.267. The 46 starts I have gotten out of my top five starters (accepting that I did not have Anibal Sanchez for three weeks) through Week 8 has a 3.041 ERA and a 1.084 WHIP with a surprising 99% K:IP ratio to go with a slightly unlucky 39.1% winning percentage. All that includes less than stellar stats from Lincecum. In short, I starting my pitching out pretty good.

My #6 and #7 pitching spots, however, have been a disaster. I have used primarily starters in those two spots plus the three marginal heartbeats that I used in place of Sanchez those three weeks had a 6.289 ERA with a WHIP of 1.678. Needless to say, the winning percentage for these guys is only 17.4%. They have a 69.1% K:IP ratio and a 1.9 K:BB ratio. Stinks and thy names are Morales, McCarthy, Danks, Nolasco, Cosart, Feldman, Young and Maurer. Their collective 23 starts have put my pitching staff near sinking. I fell into two traps. Crawl out of one and trip right into another. I left the draft short pitching. I knew I was short pitching, but noted “starting pitching is always available in the FA pool.” True enough to be a truism. The second trap is trying to match mediocre pitchers coming off a few good starts and match up to opponents whom I thought they could succeed against. Maybe even a third trap as I stuck with Nolasco thinking he could have a stretch like one he did last year where he was more than acceptable. Poor analysis and poor management on my part.

Since it is too late to be early, what do you do? Reset your goals, for one thing. I went into the year needing a collective 3.475 ERA I thought would get me 80% of available points. That number is not my target now. To bring my ERA down, I need my starters to be much closer to 3.200 the rest of the way out. Realistic for my top five, not so much unless I am able to identify a “hot” pitcher to ride. Past recent experience gives me no real expectation that I could find such a diamond in the rough, but I will be looking. I need to keep up the strong K performance (slipped a little last week as I had only seven starts) with the eleven starts I have this week.

By the way, others in my league must have agreed with me that there was not much out there to bid on this week as far as streaming pitchers go. The only starters purchased were Alvarez ($122 winning bid with a $13 second place), Tomlin ($39/$12), Cumpton ($8/$0), Happ ($22/$0), Petit ($5/$0), Stults ($3/$0), and Treinen, Gonzalez, and Hellickson all for $1. The only pitchers actually in starting line-ups this week are Alvarez (hasn’t pitched yet), Tomlin (who had a +1 start already), Cumpton (decent start already, but only 1 K), and Petit (5 K’s and a 1.200 WHIP, but a 7.200 ERA). I looked at all of these and the only one who really peaked my interest was Tomlin, who has been pitching well. Feeling snake bit, I did not bid. I have to get over that feeling. Drinking might help.

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I did take a few FA flyers. I bid on Carp on the gamble he will see additional AB with Napoli down. No one else agreed as my $31 bid was unchallenged. I dropped Valverde just before the Mets did and picked up Adam Ottavino ($13). I am still trying for saves and Qualls is my second closer. Not sure who is next in line in Colorado, but Ottavino should be in the conversation when the Rockies wake up and ditch LaTroy. I also took a flyer on Alex “Van Gough” Guerrero ($13). Just parking him for a while since Hanley is a bit dinged up already and Guerrero was just killing the ball until Olivo turned him into a buffet. I spent $57 on guys I could have had for $3. Oh well.

Hope everyone had a good Memorial Day. Thank you to all who have had the privilege to serve.

"Recessional" is a poem by Rudyard Kipling. If you ever wondered where the term "lest we forget" comes from, here it is.

God of our fathers, known of old—
Lord of our far-flung battle line—
Beneath whose awful hand we hold
Dominion over palm and pine—
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!

The tumult and the shouting dies—
The Captains and the Kings depart—
Still stands Thine ancient sacrifice,
An humble and a contrite heart.
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!

Far-called our navies melt away—
On dune and headland sinks the fire—
Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
Judge of the Nations, spare us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!

If, drunk with sight of power, we loose
Wild tongues that have not Thee in awe—
Such boastings as the Gentiles use,
Or lesser breeds without the Law—
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!

For heathen heart that puts her trust
In reeking tube and iron shard—
All valiant dust that builds on dust,
And guarding calls not Thee to guard.
For frantic boast and foolish word,
Thy Mercy on Thy People, Lord!
Amen.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Jun 02, 2014 9:07 am

Just over a third of the way to the end of the season. Now the team’s personalities and trends can clearly be seen. What, honestly, is your team telling you? Feel like you have a fighting chance?

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Mine tells me I have two glaring holes that I have not been able to address, but more about that later. For the month of May, which the way I track is one of our five week months, was a success overall. I moved up from the end of April, where I was in 9th place, to 4th place in my league. That puts me at the top of a deep and dangerous second tier. About 18 points ahead of me is the money. The Worst Russians Ever are proving not so bad after all and sit in third. Eleven points further up is High Hard One, which he is giving to most of us without the benefit of buying us dinner first. Sultans of Smack is leading seven points further in and is leading the overall as well. Stephen Fiore has been up on that perch for a while and is really showing us how it is done.

For the month, my teams’ batting average predictably fell back to earth. I just exceeded my HR and R targets for the month and gave back most of the gains I had in RBI’s from April. I staunched the flow of losing ground on SB, but still missed my pre-season target by four. Pitching turned around in some areas, but not enough really. I exceed my Wins target for the month due to a good luck week in that department, though I still sit a week behind. I have, however, moved from “Sucks” to “Mediocre”. The back end of my rotation still has a bad habit of blowing up as evidenced by the floater Feldman left in the punch bowl yesterday. Added with Weaver coming back to earth took a great pitching week and turned it into a good pitching week. For the month, I also missed my saves target, but again not as much as I did in the first month. Five additional saves can get me four more league points, so I am still in there not willing to bail. ERA and WHIP moved a little, but really didn’t improve much. The blow-ups are killing me. Strikeouts continue to be surprisingly strong. I am just ahead of my target and sitting right on 12.0 points in the category.

Saves and speed are the real challenges I have. Pagan and Gomez have turned out to be the only real producers of speed I have, and Qualls, while peripherally fine for the month, simple has not had the chances. Perkins cannot hold the category by himself (eight saves and two wins in the month though).

So, who on my team am I looking at to improve? Longoria has been a disappointment and I am hoping for a hot month or two from him. He has the talent to carry a team. Morneau has come back to earth BA wise, but is still producing good stats. I look for him just to stay healthy. I have used Plouffe and Solarte at CM with some success, but Plouffe just seems to check out for long periods of time. Some consistency there would be nice. Is Neil Walker playing over his head (probably), on his way to a career year (maybe), or has he turned a corner (possibly)? The 0.271 BA is about right and the 10 HR/29 RBI/27 R have him close to a top 10 MI. A few more SB would put him in the top echelon. Another guy who seems to check out without paying the bill is Cozart. Provided some empty BA last month. Where is that minor league speed? Happy to get LeMahieu for his speed and let’s see…he got me…ZIPPO! One trick ponies without the trick get turned into glue! Castro and Avila are not getting it done and Avila is only still on my team because there is dust left in the FA pool. Primarily it is my OF carrying my team…Gomez, Upton, Choo, and Pagan in particular. None of us are happy with the way Myers is playing (or now, not playing). I had been considering benching Myers in favor of McLouth to see if Nate can skate. Looks like the choice was made simpler. And Ortiz. Still strong on the counting stats, but where is the BA? Has he been shifted?

Week 10 FA – Should call this the FA Flyers part of the blog. I bought Mike Carp last week to see if he could turn the opportunity into some meaningful AB, at least until Napoli showed up again. WRONG! Now on the DL and back in the FA pool. Took a $1 flyer on Kyle Blanks to see if he can get meaningful AB with the platoon happy A’s. Always thought he kind of got shafted in SD. Took another flyer on Chris Gimenez ($13). A least in a platoon for Texas’ catcher position and qualifies at three positions and has been doing pretty well with the AB he has been getting. I am only basically right on with my AB target, so I might take the chance that Gimenez can give me more than Avila in fewer AB. Took another flyer on the best pitcher (at least according to the Forecaster) in baseball a few years ago, Joba Chamberlain. Baseball HQ may have missed that one, but Nathan is not looking like Nathan from last year. Chamberlain could excel in the role. And finally, I picked up my third Houston pitcher. Yes, I am certifiably insane now. Brad Peacock will not help my Win problem, but looking back over his last few games, he has had more good than bad and is back to striking out some batters. Probably adding gasoline to the fire, I know.

I did not take a flyer on Rubby de la Rosa. Each time I put a big enough bid I thought it would take to get him (I was thinking $90+ and he went for $79), I kept telling myself it was only one game.

I do not know if this team has the pitching to make up those points to get into the money. I plan to take the best match-ups I can and make the move one category, one point at a time. There is upside in my bats as I feel my underperformers out number my overperformers. I have reset the clock, reset the targets, and I have enough FA money to be able to improve my team if I identify the right talent.

The chance of my team making a money is still better than Ken Norred cheering for Auburn, so I have that going for me! 8-)
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Doctor Who » Mon Jun 09, 2014 8:26 am

Edwards Kings Guest Blogger

Since Wayne never really reveals where his squad is at on a weekly basis, I was somewhat surprised that he was in 4th place in his league, you know, since he talks his team up all the time (:sarcasm:). I dove into Wayne’s team trying to figure out how he could eventually get into one of those money spots, even looking back at his draft strategy to find out if it was flawed or the players he chose weren’t fulfilling his hopes and dreams. Isn’t it great to play Monday quarterback, or in this case, have 2 months full of Monday’s worth of quarterbacking? It looks so easy when you get to have knowledge now that a third of the season has played out.

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The Draft

Wayne went into his draft wanting a Super Six from his batters to make a majority of his stats for him. Let’s take a look at those 6 to see if they are measuring up to his standards and if he could have done better by taking another one of his selections instead. I’m sure I’ll make Wayne even more nuts by doing that, but that is what makes this Monday quarterbacking fun.

The first of his Super Six was Carlos Gomez selected in the first round. I’d say he didn’t miss on this pick and has done exactly what he paid for. He fulfills his “total points” as well getting those desperate SB’s he needs.

In the second round, he “reached” by his own admittance, for Evan Longoria. Right now, I know Wayne wishes he could have that one back. Longoria has only contributed runs for him and not much else. At least he has stayed healthy; I think that is a good thing. Longoria really needs to get going in that HR and RBI department to save Wayne on this pick. At this point, I think Wayne probably wishes he had Ellbury, even though he hasn’t played all that well either. I think it just his desperation for steals at this point. Cano I don’t believe would have helped him all that much more, as his AVG has been good thus far, and he hasn’t really contributed that much elsewhere compared to Longoria. Neil Walker has something to do with that also. Darvish might have helped him out as well, but with the knowledge he had at the time, I could see justifying picking him late 2nd but definitely not with the 16th pick. Although it would have given him the ace he truly needed, with Kershaw gone and Darvish hurt, there was no way I would have taken an ace not knowing that one would not be available to me in the 3rd round.

In the 3rd round he selected Justin Upton. At this point, he seems to be on target for what Wayne expected, even giving him some much needed SB along the way. I’d say this was a good pick here in this spot. He got his 4th player for his Super Six, in just as many rounds with Choo. The Choo-choo train would have been on target for what Wayne wanted if he hadn’t have gotten hurt, but Choo could still contribute, and definitely hasn’t been a waste. He might need to run a bit more though to help Wayne out in a much needed way.

He got another Ray for his 5th batter in the 6th round after going with a much needed pitcher the round before. Will Myers has been a major disappointed and is suffering that patented sophomore slump. This is the player that has killed Wayne in his strategy. Batting .227 isn’t what he paid for and his counting stats have followed suit. Big Papi rounded out his Super Six in the 8th round, and although he started slow, he has heated up to the point where he at least has held his own for being the last to be allowed in this party of players.

In total, the Super Six have gotten him 186 Runs, 55 HR’s, 169 RBI’s, and 25 SB’s with a .274 AVG as of June 8th. He is on target to hit his goals from what he wanted in the counting stats, except for SB’s which is dangerously off target. His .274 AVG isn’t too shabby given that Myers has been a lost cause, but I believe Wayne was hoping to be higher than that for his Super Six. Looking at the six players he got for his Super Six, I don’t think he would have gotten 115 SB’s from these Six as I see Gomez getting 40, Longoria 5-10, Choo around 20, Upton 15-20, Myers maybe 15, and Papi 0. So even at their best, in my non-expert opinion, they would have never gotten there. Wayne was against going after a Judy during the draft, and while I am normally with him there, with the roster construction, going after one definitely would have helped with the construction of this team. Looking back, I think his draft strategy seems to work, so I don’t think that is to fault, but adding a Judy late definitely would have been the cherry on top that could have been a bigger difference maker than Wayne thought at the time, even though he did say after the draft that he was short 15 SB’s from his Super Six.

With Edwards Kings being in the top 5 of every category except in SB, I almost think he should “punt” SB the rest of the year. He won’t find a real difference maker there in FAAB, and could concentrate on shoring up the other 4 categories with not much to lose in SB’s and more to gain in the categories he has done well in. He should be looking to go after those categories rather than take away from them to try and get back in the SB hunt. The FAAB pickups thus far haven’t helped him in the way he has wanted. I’m more aggressive than Wayne’s style though, as he might think it is still too early to pull the plug just yet. Patience can be a virtue, but so is taking care of a small leak before it turns in a massive hole that will sink your boat where there is no fixing it anymore. Overall the offense is solid and still has room to grow even more. He has the 5th best offense in the league, so his strategy minus a player has him in the top 3rd of the league, so there still is hope, and Wayne can still BELIEVE (my official stamp on this whole thing) in this team going forward.

On the pitching side, Wayne wanted to get his first pitcher in the 3rd or 4th round, which he failed to do because pitching “flew off the board.” He then wanted to get 3 pitchers, with one being a closer, in the top 10 rounds, with 3 closers in total and power arms in general. He started off his pitching staff with a doozie in the 5th Round, a full round later than he wanted to, with Anibal Sanchez. He would have been off and running, but again, an injury to Sanchez hurt him immensely and set him back. Sanchez is having a great year and would have met expectations if not the early injury, so hopefully he can stay healthy the remaining part of the year and help Wayne with some damage control for his staff. As he pointed out in his draft recap, his second mistake was not going back to back pitchers here to catch up. Looking back on it, this pick looked like it would have been a lost pick anyways. Myers hasn’t played good, but neither has Cobb or Bailey who he mentioned. The pick here that Wayne wishes he could have seen in the future for would have been Tanaka who was picked right after he selected Myers. He fits the bill for what Wayne was looking for and wanted. With a bit of luck and good fortune, he easily could have had dueling aces in the 5th and 6th round which would have made his team unstoppable! If only that crystal ball wasn’t on back order!

Perkins has been a God-send and a great pick in the 7th round. He is on pace to join the 100K club as well as get 40 saves. Not bad for an 7th rounder. Weaver and Lester rounded out his pitching staff anchors that he planned for before the draft. They both have been studs and have made passing on pitching in the 6th round bearable for him. Just goes to show you, that in a 15 team league, how much one early pick could make a huge difference to a team. If Wayne would have had his crystal ball and selected Tanaka, Wayne would be having the time of his life right now.

Wayne’s 2nd closer Nate Jones went down early, showing once again how reliable these guys are (why do we draft them again with high picks?). He was able to get Chad Qualls though, who has settled into the closers role in Houston for all those save chances. Hey I just want them to win buddy! Now you’re getting all picky on me and wanting a save out of it too?!? If Wayne can ever find that third closer somewhere out there waiting in the weeds, he has a chance to make a major move up the saves category. It seems like the closer carousel has stopped for the time being though.

The second thing that surprised me about this team was the ERA and WHIP. Wayne has talked about it some before, but his staff looks really solid at the front end. The back end is just killing him though. If he could find 3-4 solid backend guys he can pair up for double starts every week that are worth keeping around, that would help him immensely. But that is next to impossible in a 15 team league. Wayne will just have to keep playing with fire and getting burnt it appears. Maybe if you made a reservation, they would be nicer to you down there will all that fire around you.

Lastly, usually in the main event, you need to hit a home run somewhere in your last 10 picks, which is why a lot of guys will go young there as there is potential, and if they fail, can easily be released. I noticed that Wayne went mostly with veterans, mainly taking a chance on their role more than anything. He didn’t hit a single one, and not a single one is on his team now, unless you count him picking up Feldman again. I’m not trying to pick on Wayne here as it isn’t easy to find that diamond in the rough in the late rounds, and generally if you do, your team usually is in the money. Once again, it goes to show you how good Wayne’s team really is, even with some misses from him. That is what the Main Event is, if only something here, or something there in the draft was different, it could have made Wayne’s team a contender in this league with the Overall leader.

I want to thank Wayne for letting me guest blog about his team this week. It was fun to look at a different team and see how someone else that I have followed over the years works his magic. I believe we have very different styles, but that is the beauty of this game. There are many ways to second guess yourself, or to win for that matter. Some is by trial and error, while some mistakes are hard to come back from. But until October comes, you keep BELIEVING, because until that final out is made, there is hope. And if all hope is lost… At least you can still watch the Braves lose in the first round of the playoffs or down the stretch.

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Edwards Kings
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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:43 am

Thanks Dustin! I appreciate the insight! :D
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Bronx Yankees » Mon Jun 09, 2014 8:25 pm

Just wanted to say, on both threads, that I liked the mutual guest blogging. A nice twist on enjoyable threads. Thanks for the good reads, gents.

Mike
Mike Mager
"Bronx Yankees"

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Re: Edwards Kings 2014 Blog

Post by Glenneration X » Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:04 pm

Bronx Yankees wrote:Just wanted to say, on both threads, that I liked the mutual guest blogging. A nice twist on enjoyable threads. Thanks for the good reads, gents.

Mike
Agreed. It was an interesting turn for a pair of already very interesting blogs. Keep up the good work gentlemen.

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