Free Agent Spending Advice

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Coach2780
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Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by Coach2780 » Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:01 pm

Gents,

This is my first year in the NFBC and my squad is doing well overall, my question is on free agent spending. There is a team with as low as $27 left in their budget and a teams with over $900, I find myself around the middle at $674. Any advice on where you like to be at this point of the season and any warnings moving forward?

Thanks in advance,

Dan

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GetALife
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by GetALife » Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:19 pm

I'm at the bottom of my league, but I have most of my money left. You might be doing pretty good with more than half of your money left. It really doesn't matter when you spend your money, it's how or on what you spend it that matters. Of course, with it being early still; you might want to have more than $27 left for the whole season. However, the $27 team could be stacked and still has enough for a little more than one bid for one dollar per week in the case they have injury problems.

COZ
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by COZ » Tue Apr 29, 2014 9:14 pm

Great question. It's my 7th year and I'm still trying to figure out FAAB and how much to bid, how much to have for late in the season, etc. I think its the most underrated important aspect of this game. I drive myself crazy every Sunday bidding against myself and adjusting bids till I just say effe it, these are my bids and I stop adjusting. Sundays are literally mentally draining to me. There is a definite NFFC-ization toward NFBC bidding. Some of these bids are insane in my opinion, then again I thought $500 for Jose Fernandez last year was too much because I met him at a bar at the All-star game two years ago and he had tight, skinny jeans on and looked like he was 17 years old (which he probably was though ya expect them to look like older), so what do I know?!?!

To me, the key, to FAAB, is to be a week early on a guy, than a week late. I'm going to conservative with my bidding this year and keep telling myself its early. Then again, I'm in last place. King of Queens, I believe, keeps a spreadsheet of everyone's bids so he would be the best to answer this question. Oh, Glenn????

COZ
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CC's Desperados
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by CC's Desperados » Tue Apr 29, 2014 11:04 pm

This might help. I wrote it a few years back.

One thing that has bothered me about high stakes fantasy baseball over the past couple of years is the amount of teams that have gone broke midsummer. I can’t understand it. Most top players will never run out of money. I don’t know if it is lack of game plan or they panic over a particular player that paints some teams in a corner. On the other side of the fence, I do see too many teams that never spend enough money. Every team has different needs and they will have different times to make some aggressive moves.

First, I want to explain about free agent bidding and give you a game plan for the season. In high stakes non-trading leagues like the NFBC, they use $1000 of free agent dollars to pick up players each week. Every team has the same amount. When you are out of money, you are out of moves. There are 26 weeks in the baseball season. As a fantasy team owner, you need to gauge the free agent market each week and decide what to bid on each free agent. You will see a wide range of prices for the same player in all the high stakes leagues. The most difficult thing is pinpointing a proper price to secure the player you want without over spending too much. Coming up with a bid comes from feel, player news, team needs, experience, or even knowing your competition.

You could be in two leagues and want the same player in both leagues. On one team, you might need to play that player. On the other team, you might just want to add him to your bench. The team in need makes an aggressive bid and the other team makes a token bid. If you have a problem, you need to make moves. You can’t take the money with you, but you want to leave enough to manage the whole season. The money doesn’t do you a lot of good in August if you are out of contention.

If I work backwards from week 26, we can get an idea of how much money we might need to make the last week of the season. Going into week 26, I would like to have more than $10. I probably won’t need to make 10 moves (each moves has $1 minimum), but I might want to bid a couple of dollars to ensure I get the players I want. With a month to go, I think a sharp owner can manage with $40-$60. It leaves you enough money to make a move or two. If you have say $20, you don’t leave yourself a lot of room for error. A team that in contention might be able to block you for short money. With two months to go, you might want to have $100-$150. Of course if your team has been relatively healthy all year, you don’t have to spend your money. By spending your money early, you are being aggressive on the wire and getting players you want. During each season, every team has a time when it can make a big move or two.

During the season every team will have times when they need help. If you have problems early in the season, you will have the best opportunity to fix it. There will be pitchers who come out of nowhere and players getting jobs after getting called up from the minors. A fantasy owner might not give a hot player a second look in April if he likes his current group of players. Many times it takes a couple of months to realize that some players you have invested in aren’t going to turn the corner. When that happens, you have fewer options to replace someone who is struggling. It seems like every week there is a player or two that gets hot and is worth a shot as a short term fix, but many times these hot players will fizzle out the next week. Sometimes they get hot and keep the job for an extended period of time. I call these players buy and holds. When you see these hot players, you have to take history into account when placing your bids. If a 32 year old part time player suddenly gets more playing time, you need to take into account his history when placing a bid. Is he going to turn into a stud at age 32? It’s possible, but he most likely isn’t worth a huge bid. Each player is different. Every situation is different. One week you have a 2nd basemen go on the DL, you see one quality fill in. You might make a solid bid. Another week the same thing happens except two other teams have similar problems. Your solid bid might not win the player that week. When you have more eyes looking in the same area, you know the price is going up.

Early in the season you might not know much about the other players in your league. I think you should get a feel for who is sharp at the draft table, but you might not have enough information to make an accurate evaluation. The main thing you are looking for is someone who is on the same page with you. If you get a sense that someone is in the market for similar players, you know that they will be onto some players you want on the waiver wire. When the first couple of bidding periods run, you should be able to get a feel for some of the players in your league. Are they holding their money? Are some players extremely aggressive? Is anyone picking up players who won’t have any value for a month? The more you play the better you should be at knowing the styles of your competition. If you have a feel for your league, you might have a better idea of when you need to make a strong move if you need a player. All it takes is one player being extremely aggressive to throw a player’s value out the window. If someone does this, you know they won’t have a lot of ammo as the season goes on. Every team has the chance to make a few big moves. If you make a big investment, you need to make sure you understand why you are doing it. A panic move can be deadly for you fantasy team.

I went back and looked at my main event team in 2008. I made 53 moves for the year, but I over spent by $773 on those pickups. I could have had all my players for $227 or about $5 per player. Some were me being aggressive, others were me panicking, and a few were me miss reading the market value. In my main event, there were a lot of teams that were holding their money for whatever the reason. This would depress the market value. Each week you can see where you overspent on some players. When you see this, you need to adjust your thought process on bids for certain players. If I’ve been placing bids for a couple of buy and hold double starters and I notice I’m bidding unopposed, I might need to lower my bids. If I’m bidding in say the $30 range and I’m having runner ups bids just below my total, I might need to raise my bid on the next player that fits that mold.

As for the players that hold their money and never end up spending it, I would suggest you reevaluate your game plan. Maybe some owners don’t have a lot of time and don’t like to micro manage their teams, but you need to stay on top of the free agent pool early in the year. Your money won’t help you when you are out of contention late in the season. The idea is to service your team’s needs and hopefully you are still in the hunt after the all star break. Baseball is a marathon. You need to keep grinding. Sometimes teams that look like run away winners have late season problems. If you don’t play hard all season, you might miss on a winning opportunity. The first half of the year there are more buying opportunities. You have more competition for players, but you need to spend money if you need players. If your team is underachieving, there isn't much you can do. You try to be patient and hope things starts to turn around. If you have no major problems, it is nice to have the most money the second half of the year. I see way too many times a team having a lot of free agent money in August and have no chance of winning. Everyone has a different idea about how to play and they put up the entry fee.

When you prepare for this upcoming season, I suggest you take a look at how you spent your free agent money last year. If you ran out in August or early September, I would make some adjustments to ensure that you have enough to last all season. As bad as you think you need someone, you have to look at the results of having no money. A dollar player can turn into a solid pick up just as fast as your $400 supposed super star can be a flash in the pan. Everyone’s goal is to win and I think you decrease your chances when you run out of free agent dollars. When you are really hot for someone, take a deep breath. Try to make sure you aren’t running up the price of the player you want in your own mind. Try to be a week early and it will save you tons of money. If you feel the need to spend $400+ plus on the next Cole Hamels or Ryan Braun, do a little more homework in the off season? You might find your pot of gold on you team on draft day. If you find yourself out of contention in midsummer with a boat load of cash, roll up your sleeves and get your hands dirty when you are still in the game.

King of Queens
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by King of Queens » Tue Apr 29, 2014 11:12 pm

Coach2780 wrote:Gents,

This is my first year in the NFBC and my squad is doing well overall, my question is on free agent spending. There is a team with as low as $27 left in their budget and a teams with over $900, I find myself around the middle at $674. Any advice on where you like to be at this point of the season and any warnings moving forward?

Thanks in advance,

Dan
$27 left is suicide -- can't see how anyone could make that work. As for $900+, well, maybe that owner had a near-perfect draft with no injuries whatsoever. 8-)

My best advice would be to spend your money on quality, difference-making players. Figure out what your team needs each week and go get the player you need, even if you have to overspend to get him. Some weeks, the player you need might not be available. If that's the case, don't spend on the flavor of the week and instead take a few shots on a closer-in-waiting, an injured player, etc.

With that said, always be mindful to not leave yourself too short for the second half. $674 seems like a decent amount coming into May. Hopefully you got some decent talent with the $326 you spent (i.e. NOT Valverde).

Best of luck!

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Edwards Kings
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed Apr 30, 2014 6:27 am

CC's Desperados wrote:With a month to go, I think a sharp owner can manage with $40-$60. It leaves you enough money to make a move or two. If you have say $20, you don’t leave yourself a lot of room for error. A team that in contention might be able to block you for short money.
Dan,

I agree with everything Mr. Childs says except my target for the last month is $100 because:

1) I am not sharp. As a matter of fact, I am dumber than a bag of hammers (just ask any of my friends).
2) Because of #1 above, I feel I need the extra edge. The $100 generally gives me the cushion I need to get pretty much any player I want without sweating it out too much. The cost is not buying in on a few of the "buy and hold" gamble-types earlier.
3) Even if I am not in contention, I never quit. And neither is it playing to lose to have an extra few bucks at the end. The $100 means that I will, on occasion, piss off those that have the gall to be in the lead by outbidding them for those late, key players. There is some small value and sense of contentment there. ;)
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Glenneration X
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by Glenneration X » Wed Apr 30, 2014 7:13 am

Of course, having 100 or 60 or 40 in FAAB for the last month is meaningless if you're already out of it by then. Every team and situation has to be evaluated on its own merits and needs.

My first season with the NFBC, I was in a $500 satellite and battling for cash positions with Marty Bedell in the league. He was completely out of FAAB with well over a month to go and had half a dozen players on the DL. I of course felt that gave me and the others fighting for first an edge. :D However, Marty won the league the b@#&@$d!! :x Of course, Marty is one helluva player and this is likely the exception.

I don't recall what contributions the last couple FAAB pickups Marty made added to his fight for the league championship. However, they may have been the difference maker.

Point is....of course it's better to have available funds those last months/month. Still, you need to get there first.

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Coach2780
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by Coach2780 » Wed Apr 30, 2014 8:50 am

Great article and feedback guys. The team with $27 is killing it right now, probably should have saved money in a few areas, spent high on Charlie Blackmon at $312 and Frod $559 but can't argue there production. I was in 1st and as high 9th overall until my bats took a two week vacation, we will see how it plays out! And Coz, I get those stressful Sunday nights, I agree with the key being finding the player a week early!

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Yah Mule
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by Yah Mule » Wed Apr 30, 2014 8:51 am

I like to try and budget so that I have some money left at the end. I have won leagues by having a few dollars to spend in September when my main competition is tapped. I think you're better off making some bold buys early in the season. A player you acquire as a free agent in week two will have twice as long to accumulate stats for you as a guy you pick up in week 14.

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GetALife
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by GetALife » Wed Apr 30, 2014 9:06 am

Coach2780 wrote:Great article and feedback guys. The team with $27 is killing it right now, probably should have saved money in a few areas, spent high on Charlie Blackmon at $312 and Frod $559 but can't argue there production. I was in 1st and as high 9th overall until my bats took a two week vacation, we will see how it plays out! And Coz, I get those stressful Sunday nights, I agree with the key being finding the player a week early!
Krod could be the best closer this season, and Blackmon is playing at MVP level. While they likely won't continue this pace, they can be very good all year. It's about the value of time. He spent the money now, but he has them for a full season getting stats. He probably could have got both players and left himself a $100 or so left instead of the $27? That would have been ideal! I do think leaving himself only 27 this early was a big mistake.

chest .rockwell
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by chest .rockwell » Wed Apr 30, 2014 11:44 am

I do it with a budget in mind. I do the budget right after the draft and always only budget 900 dollars. The last 100 is for flyers and injury replacements.

I then update and revise the budget every month. I am not as worried about how much money I have as much as I have gotten the assets I coveted early or through bad luck or bad management had to begin to covet.

I budget more specifically than starting pitcher. It would be starting pitcher with great upside and K potential. etc. Middle infield with 280 avg or better and good ab's.

I convert the budget to an actual bid based upon projected best case point pickup. This gets easier as the season goes along. It seems like every league has certain areas that are bunched up. IE if one good speed guy gives me 5 projected best case additional points versus the same speed guy in another league only giving me 2 projected points then I bid differently. A five point guy will start in the 300's in some cases where a 3 point guy in the 100's. I look at it like FAAB is buying points in the standings. You obviously have to factor in risk too. If Cody Allen is available in your league after an Axford injury he is worth more than Dice K if Collins suddenly names him.

The most additional points and even this is rare a player in FAAB can probably add is 5 points. Although you could argue Krod and Blackman may challenge that if they in any way keep up this pace. They then join Cole Hamels and Jose Fernandez in the faab hall of fame.

Last thought Glenn KOQ in my opinion is the best Faab player I have encountered. He has gotten me three times including Jose Fernandez last year and some bozo dropped AJ Pierzynksi two weeks in a couple of years ago. Both times he spent what it takes to get the guy. I spent with an 80% chance of getting them in fear of overspending ? Follow his style there not mine. Glenn you would be proud I spent to get Joe Smith this weekend. Let's hope it works out.

I would also rather be the rookie and overspend early than hold on and outbid by 200 dollars because I can in the last week of August.

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Deadheadz
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by Deadheadz » Wed Apr 30, 2014 11:59 am

More important than how much to spend is knowing who and when you should drop.
This was covered earlier but it's not uncommon for a manager to use the draft round as a clue as to how long he should hold onto a player when they've underperformed.

The NFBC gives us 30 rounds and if you agree you shouldn't drop any of your first 4-5 picks solely for bad stats, you can make their draft round the number of weeks remaining in the season before you'll allow yourself to drop them.

Eg. Allen Craig was taken in round 8 so you can't drop him until there are no more than 8 weeks left in the season.

It's just an arbitrary way to keep yourself from releasing a player too soon. Injuries, of course, can override the time you'd set as when you'll let him go.
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Atlas
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by Atlas » Wed Apr 30, 2014 1:07 pm

Forgive me if this point was covered, as I did a "speed -read" of the great responses...

..but it seems to me that you would want to pay more for someone early in the season that you will, ostensibly, get 20 or so weeks out of verses someone at the end that is going to be a couple week patch. And by then most of the "quality" free agents have been sucked dry.

I can still remember the year Cliff Lee went undrafted. Week after week I kept saying to myself "This isn't real. He'll revert to his mean."

Still waiting.

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GetALife
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by GetALife » Wed Apr 30, 2014 2:50 pm

You could just spend it all like you are at the casino. Just cash in like it's roulette in week one and lose it all.

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Yah Mule
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Re: Free Agent Spending Advice

Post by Yah Mule » Wed Apr 30, 2014 4:10 pm

I'm in an OC league with two guys sitting on $0 balance already. One of them busted after week two.

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