What Was The Best Draft Spot In 2006?

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 7:05 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

Not a one of them can EVER show me any ten consecutive years of data where draft slot has determined the outcome of 15 team leagues on a consistent basis.

The pick that does the best each year rotates in a random way and there is no recognizable pattern to it. As noted, injuries are the largest factor among dozens of factors.UFS - Refer to the thread on Rickey Henderson here. Do you seriously believe that the #1 pick who had access to Henderson in the early-mid 80s didn't have an advantage over the #15 pick? [/QUOTE]One person has never made a team an automatic winner, and my data goes back to 1984, using 16-team leagues.

Please show me the data that proves Ricky made everyone a winner. You can't, because it doesn't exist.

Greg's data from this year is the typical data. A randomly, rotating changing of the best pick where the UNIQUE things that happened this year, will be copied and applied to next year, eventhough next year will have its own set of UNIQUE circumstances.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 7:25 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

Not a one of them can EVER show me any ten consecutive years of data where draft slot has determined the outcome of 15 team leagues on a consistent basis.

The pick that does the best each year rotates in a random way and there is no recognizable pattern to it. As noted, injuries are the largest factor among dozens of factors.UFS - Refer to the thread on Rickey Henderson here. Do you seriously believe that the #1 pick who had access to Henderson in the early-mid 80s didn't have an advantage over the #15 pick? [/QUOTE]Uh, you don't know what players are going to do until after the year is over. Your point about past performance is irrelavent. In ten years people might look back and say this about Pujols, but you don't know when he will have an off-year, an injury or in which years a different superstar will be available and in what round. In other words, it's like saying that mid-draft was important this year because you could have gone Reyes, Soriano, Howard...nooow you tell me.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 7:29 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

bjoak - Your scenario is no different than Cole Hamels going for $250 in some leagues and $650 in others. Obviously, whoever got Hamels for $250 got a bargain, relative to the other leagues. But that's not something people seriously complain about affecting the integrity of the overall competition. Bjoak's example is exactly why I have reservations of ever doing BBDS for the main event. He is exactly right that as of Week 1, all leagues would then be different, not similar.

Eric, your example is also right, but you are now talking about the 31st player (or higher) being added to a team and sometimes in Week 3 or 4 or later, not before Week 1.

I understand the passion some of you have for having input in your draft position, but I agree with UFS that part of the skill of this competition is winning from any spot. KDS gives you a little input on your draft position and still gets everyone in every league to the same starting gate before Week 1. And the data shows that this year and in years past no individual draft spot was the end-all success for winning the $100,000 grand prize.

I love the discussion about this and I do love the BBDS concept, so don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to kill this discussion. We definitely can offer satellite leagues this off-season with BBDS and continue to discuss the merits of this setup. Maybe down the road we'll be the first high-stakes league to implement it. Honestly, I see the merits of it even more in football than I do in baseball, but it's a good discussion here nonetheless.

Carry on with this, but on Oct. 2nd get ready to set your KDS Preferences!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 7:32 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

bjoak - Your scenario is no different than Cole Hamels going for $250 in some leagues and $650 in others. Obviously, whoever got Hamels for $250 got a bargain, relative to the other leagues. But that's not something people seriously complain about affecting the integrity of the overall competition. You do have a valid point, but to say it is no different is ridiculous. People bid on Hamels based on how much they *need* him within the context of their teams. We're talking about creating disparity before a single draft pick is made, when there is no context. It's like saying the monetary disparity between KC and NYY isn't serious because they could have chosen different amounts to invest in their teams. So what? It is still competitive imbalance.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 7:48 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

I understand the passion some of you have for having input in your draft position, but I agree with UFS that part of the skill of this competition is winning from any spot. Let me put it this way.

Going into my MAIN draft this year, the "Stevieland" owners ranked #5 in NFBC.

They picked #13 this year.

They have been #2 or #3 for the past few weeks.

So that means 3 years running, they have been right at the top of the NFBC.

I really doubt they waste their energy worrying about what draft slot is best. And guys like them rarely post their strategies that make them so good.

Spend your time more wisely figuring out their strategy than using the crutch of perceived bad draft slot. I know I will. I'm good, but they are much better.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 7:50 am

O And the data shows that this year and in years past no individual draft spot was the end-all success for winning the $100,000 grand prize. [/QB]Or $5,000 prizes.

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 7:56 am

UFS - You say you have 16-team data going back to 1984. Are they mixed draft leagues? How many leagues are in the sample?

[ September 21, 2006, 01:58 PM: Message edited by: The Lollygaggers ]

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 8:10 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

UFS - You say you have 16-team data going back to 1984. Are they mixed draft leagues? How many leagues are in the sample? Mixed, snake style, about 500 leagues.

football is 14-teams, about 400 leagues.

The top 10% owners CONSISTENTLY win leagues no matter where they pick from in both sports.

After three years now, Greg is posting the same exact things that I've seen for over 20 years now.

Cowinkydink? I think not.

And everyone one of these debates belittles those owners that consistently achieve in the top 10%.

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 8:45 am

UFS – I agree with you that owner skill is more important than draft position. My only argument is that draft position does matter.

Here’s an experiment to test my hypothesis: Use ADP data from 1996-2005 to create four-player “teams” for each of the 15 draft slots. For each year, you’ll have one team with ADP numbers 1, 30, 31, 60; another with #2, 29, 32, 59; and so on through #15, 16, 45, 46. This will give you 10 years of data for all 15 draft slots (150 total teams). Then we’ll use ESPN’s Player Rater calculations to give a score to each draft slot “team.”

My hypothesis is that the #1, 2 & 3 draft positions will on average have higher player rater scores than the #13, 14, & 15 positions.

Make sense? Let me know what you think.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 9:26 am

I think that next year, draft pick will be less important than this year (again, you still need a strategy for where your position is).

OK, so you do not get #1 and you do not get Pujols...are there going to be better round 1 options available to you than there were this year? I think yes based on the number of players who have decent MLB playing time, but are still young and are moving into peak years, but may not have been considered for the first round this year (Howard, Utley, Morneau, Atkins, Sizemore, Holiday). I am not saying all will go in the first round, but add to them young guys that did get first round consideration this year like Bay, Wright, Reyes, Texixeira, Crawford, Cabrera and Ortiz plus other "standards" like A-Rod, Vladdy, and Beltran...that is a lot of choices! And I did not even mention Santana!

Maybe I just made my mind up to pick middle or near the back end so I can get two of them?!

viper · Post by **viper** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 9:45 am

looking at how leagues from days of yore have done is nice but these leagues likely allowed trading. IMO, trading effectively invalidates any detailed studies you may have undertaken. It would make a lot more sense to look exclusively at NFBC results on a league by league basis over its three year history. The no-tarding factor in NFBC leagues is pretty much unique and demands a study of its own - assuming you want to make such a study at all.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 9:55 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

UFS – I agree with you that owner skill is more important than draft position. My only argument is that draft position does matter.

Here’s an experiment to test my hypothesis: Use ADP data from 1996-2005 to create four-player “teams” for each of the 15 draft slots. For each year, you’ll have one team with ADP numbers 1, 30, 31, 60; another with #2, 29, 32, 59; and so on through #15, 16, 45, 46. This will give you 10 years of data for all 15 draft slots (150 total teams). Then we’ll use ESPN’s Player Rater calculations to give a score to each draft slot “team.”

My hypothesis is that the #1, 2 & 3 draft positions will on average have higher player rater scores than the #13, 14, & 15 positions.

Make sense? Let me know what you think. Eric, you of all people have proven that you can compete from any draft spot. Guys like you, Shawn Childs, Eddie Gillis, David DiDonata and others have proven through the years that you can compete from any spot. I understand your passion for planning from a particular spot and improving your chances from there, but you and most everyone else can win from any spot.

Draft spots in 12-team fantasy football leagues are more critical than draft spots in 15-team baseball leagues, but I understand everyone's concern with improving their lot. But 30 rounds, 450 players, 26 weeks of action, 23 starters per week...sheesh, one player won't tilt the scales for one set of owners who get a preferred draft spot.

As for your example, it's possible that 1, 2 and 3 will outperform the last three spots in most seasons. It definitely won't happen that way this year, but this is an interesting year. Next year should be wide open as well. Again, I can see the top three spots winning out in football more than baseball, but that doesn't mean your example is incorrect.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 9:57 am

Competetive imbalances based upon having better skills is one thing, imbalance based upon luck of the draw is what bothers me.

Bjoak's point is legit- it just seems to be minor in comparison to the benefits. What about possibly putting a lock on how much you can bid for draft slots and then have a tie breaker system? It kind of blends the 2 theories together?

I think the stats that show year in and year out draft slots do not matter are probably legit.

Some years I am more comfortable going out of certain spots- I would love the option to do it.

I finally agree with Zaleski on something- Stevieland aka Joe Sambito and partner are probably the best players in this contest. No offense to Shawn Childs or Dan Kenyon who are 2 other excellent players who I have been in leagues with. Their consistency in doing well is extremely impressive.

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 9:57 am

viper - Notice that I'm not proposing to look at how fantasy teams performed. I'm suggesting that we look at how average draft slots performed. I don't see how trading impacts this analysis; I know I don't approach my first four picks in a trading league mcuh differently than a non-trading league (all else equal).

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 10:01 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

UFS – I agree with you that owner skill is more important than draft position. My only argument is that draft position does matter.

Here’s an experiment to test my hypothesis: Use ADP data from 1996-2005 to create four-player “teams” for each of the 15 draft slots. For each year, you’ll have one team with ADP numbers 1, 30, 31, 60; another with #2, 29, 32, 59; and so on through #15, 16, 45, 46. This will give you 10 years of data for all 15 draft slots (150 total teams). Then we’ll use ESPN’s Player Rater calculations to give a score to each draft slot “team.”

My hypothesis is that the #1, 2 & 3 draft positions will on average have higher player rater scores than the #13, 14, & 15 positions.

Make sense? Let me know what you think. Eric, you of all people have proven that you can compete from any draft spot. Guys like you, Shawn Childs, Eddie Gillis, David DiDonata and others have proven through the years that you can compete from any spot. I understand your passion for planning from a particular spot and improving your chances from there, but you and most everyone else can win from any spot.

Draft spots in 12-team fantasy football leagues are more critical than draft spots in 15-team baseball leagues, but I understand everyone's concern with improving their lot. But 30 rounds, 450 players, 26 weeks of action, 23 starters per week...sheesh, one player won't tilt the scales for one set of owners who get a preferred draft spot.

As for your example, it's possible that 1, 2 and 3 will outperform the last three spots in most seasons. It definitely won't happen that way this year, but this is an interesting year. Next year should be wide open as well. Again, I can see the top three spots winning out in football more than baseball, but that doesn't mean your example is incorrect. [/QUOTE]Greg- I hated 15 mainly because of rounds 3 and 4. I thought it would be dry when we got there and it was IMO. I did my part by find quality at the end of the first round and second with Beltran and Utley because quality was there to choose from. Take a look at my draft Tampa 2 and show me even with hindsight who was a difference maker at 45/46? Therefore my draft slot hindered me a lot.

2 thoughts 1) that is not why we did not crack the top 50 I realize that 2) I ask that question with the hope of being proven wrong- it is really a question not a way to try to prove a point.

[ September 21, 2006, 04:02 PM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 10:14 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Greg- I hated 15 mainly because of rounds 3 and 4. I thought it would be dry when we got there and it was IMO. I did my part by find quality at the end of the first round and second with Beltran and Utley because quality was there to choose from. Take a look at my draft Tampa 2 and show me even with hindsight who was a difference maker at 45/46? Therefore my draft slot hindered me a lot.

2 thoughts 1) that is not why we did not crack the top 50 I realize that 2) I ask that question with the hope of being proven wrong- it is really a question not a way to try to prove a point. [/QB][/QUOTE]Since you brought this up, I'll use you as an example. Nobody in the NFBC this year hated their draft spot more than you, which I think you'll admit. You hated the 15 spot and hated the luck of the draw this year. That being said, 15 is proving to be one of the better draft slots this year, so obviously others added onto their first two picks and did a better job than you.

I understand that your third and fourth round picks were tough, but you know as well as I do that those weren't the ones that won it or lost it for you or anyone else. Through 30 rounds, you needed to beat the trends from the 15th spot and sometimes pick a prospect or sleeper a little earlier than anticipated. It's a tough spot -- even tougher than No. 1 -- because you can't afford to get left behind when the runs start. Others have done a great job of that from the 15th spot and didn't let a perceived disadvantage drag them down. In fact, many owners this year made 15 one of their Top 5 KDS Preferences.

I know you weren't trying to disparage Shawn Childs in your compliment above, but if Shawn isn't our most decorated NFBC member after the first three years I don't know who is. Look at what he's doing again in the $1,250 AL Auction League, $1,250 NL Auction League and Ultimate Draft League. He excels in more different formats than anyone else in our competition. Shawn, you really are an amazing fantasy baseball player.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 10:40 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Greg- I hated 15 mainly because of rounds 3 and 4. I thought it would be dry when we got there and it was IMO. I did my part by find quality at the end of the first round and second with Beltran and Utley because quality was there to choose from. Take a look at my draft Tampa 2 and show me even with hindsight who was a difference maker at 45/46? Therefore my draft slot hindered me a lot.

2 thoughts 1) that is not why we did not crack the top 50 I realize that 2) I ask that question with the hope of being proven wrong- it is really a question not a way to try to prove a point. [/QUOTE]Since you brought this up, I'll use you as an example. Nobody in the NFBC this year hated their draft spot more than you, which I think you'll admit. You hated the 15 spot and hated the luck of the draw this year. That being said, 15 is proving to be one of the better draft slots this year, so obviously others added onto their first two picks and did a better job than you.

I understand that your third and fourth round picks were tough, but you know as well as I do that those weren't the ones that won it or lost it for you or anyone else. Through 30 rounds, you needed to beat the trends from the 15th spot and sometimes pick a prospect or sleeper a little earlier than anticipated. It's a tough spot -- even tougher than No. 1 -- because you can't afford to get left behind when the runs start. Others have done a great job of that from the 15th spot and didn't let a perceived disadvantage drag them down. In fact, many owners this year made 15 one of their Top 5 KDS Preferences.

I know you weren't trying to disparage Shawn Childs in your compliment above, but if Shawn isn't our most decorated NFBC member after the first three years I don't know who is. Look at what he's doing again in the $1,250 AL Auction League, $1,250 NL Auction League and Ultimate Draft League. He excels in more different formats than anyone else in our competition. Shawn, you really are an amazing fantasy baseball player. [/QB][/QUOTE]Certainly was not trying to go at Shawn he is certainly very good and has come back and beaten me in our league together.

Points you make I already conceded in saying that is not why I lost but I still contend it was a disadvantage. I will look at what the other winners did differently on draft day after the season. Anyone who out did me on free agency is (there are plenty of them) irrelevant to this debate. Just because you won does not mean you did not start at a disadvantage in some circumstances.

I put it out to anyone to show me logical picks in my draft at 45/46 that would have provided value above their draft spot in Tampa 2. I applaud my leaguemates they left us nothing there.

Any analysis that includes what a bad idea going 2 starting pitchers there should be left off of here because that point would have been conceded to you on May 1st and was terrible strategy on my part.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 10:48 am

Greg- what teams drafted from 15 and are doing well. I would love to try and learn something from what they did.

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 10:54 am

Greg Ambrosius said:

Eric, you of all people have proven that you can compete from any draft spot. Guys like you, Shawn Childs, Eddie Gillis, David DiDonata and others have proven through the years that you can compete from any spot. I understand your passion for planning from a particular spot and improving your chances from there, but you and most everyone else can win from any spot.Greg,

My emphasis on BBDS has always been in the Ultimate leagues. And in Ultimate, I’m competing against Eddie Gillis, David DiDonata, Stephen Jupinka, Shawn Childs, Artie Rastelli, and others like them. And in some years, draft slot really does matter. It didn’t as much this year because guys like Soriano & Reyes helped out the late picks much more than in “normal” years.

I’ll put it this way: If I’m picking from the #14 spot at next year’s Ultimate Draft because Tom pulled my name out of the hat last, I’ll consider it a disadvantage. I won’t be pissed off, I won’t think “Well, I’ll never win now!”…I’ll simply consider it a small disadvantage and move on. Similarly, if I land the #1 pick because Tom pulls my name out of a hat first, I’ll consider it a lucky break. And in contests as competitive (and expensive) as Ultimate, small disadvantages and lucky breaks aren’t insignificant.

That’s all I’m saying.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 11:01 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Greg- what teams drafted from 15 and are doing well. I would love to try and learn something from what they did. Swedes Crush Meatballs drafted from there and they are fourth or fifth overall.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 11:03 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

quote:Greg Ambrosius said:

Eric, you of all people have proven that you can compete from any draft spot. Guys like you, Shawn Childs, Eddie Gillis, David DiDonata and others have proven through the years that you can compete from any spot. I understand your passion for planning from a particular spot and improving your chances from there, but you and most everyone else can win from any spot.Greg,

My emphasis on BBDS has always been in the Ultimate leagues. And in Ultimate, I’m competing against Eddie Gillis, David DiDonata, Stephen Jupinka, Shawn Childs, Artie Rastelli, and others like them. And in some years, draft slot really does matter. It didn’t as much this year because guys like Soriano & Reyes helped out the late picks much more than in “normal” years.

I’ll put it this way: If I’m picking from the #14 spot at next year’s Ultimate Draft because Tom pulled my name out of the hat last, I’ll consider it a disadvantage. I won’t be pissed off, I won’t think “Well, I’ll never win now!”…I’ll simply consider it a small disadvantage and move on. Similarly, if I land the #1 pick because Tom pulls my name out of a hat first, I’ll consider it a lucky break. And in contests as competitive (and expensive) as Ultimate, small disadvantages and lucky breaks aren’t insignificant.

That’s all I’m saying. [/QUOTE]Fair enough and you know I'll run BBDS in the Ultimate Leagues if everyone wants that. Convince those 14 other owners in your league to use BBDS and I'll run it.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 11:20 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:ov

Here’s an experiment to test my hypothesis: Use ADP data from 1996-2005 to create four-player “teams” for each of the 15 draft slots. Why test a faulty test.

Four player teams have nothing to do with roster sizes at 25 or more.

How about a test that shows what the Top 10% pick after Round 10?

That will prove where you pick doesn't matter.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 11:23 am

Originally posted by viper:

looking at how leagues from days of yore have done is nice but these leagues likely allowed trading. IMO, trading effectively invalidates any detailed studies you may have undertaken. It would make a lot more sense to look exclusively at NFBC results on a league by league basis over its three year history. The no-tarding factor in NFBC leagues is pretty much unique and demands a study of its own - assuming you want to make such a study at all. Then why does everything Greg post realte so much?

Trading is very limited and watched like a hawk in UFS and the leagues are won more by the draft, then the effects of trading.

If trading was a major factor in my data, I would never have posted on this subject.

[ September 21, 2006, 05:34 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 11:28 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

viper - Notice that I'm not proposing to look at how fantasy teams performed. I'm suggesting that we look at how average draft slots performed. After the draft is over, this is meaningless.

There are way too many injuries along with all the FAAB pickups and lineup decisions that skew all of this.

Trying to tell me TODAY how valuable a slot was OPENING DAY is comedy.

BJOAK touched on this earlier. Greg has already shown that picks 10-15 were "more" valuable in HINDSIGHT.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 11:31 am

Take a look at my draft Tampa 2 and show me even with hindsight who was a difference maker at 45/46? Therefore my draft slot hindered me a lot.[/QB]This can happen at any round of the draft, and to other slots just as easily.

I had pick 9 and felt the same way in rounds 9 and 10. I hated those picks for the exact same reason you are pointing out.