Jose Fernandez Expected to Go on DL; MRI Scheduled

[TParsons]

Pretty sure the slider info and most of the hypotheses drawn re the cause of tjs is from a 2002 study. That's definitely not "fresh new data." I've seen pitch type, pitch count, innings pitched, mechanics, preparation, etc as possible causes. Still nobody (except Outlaw) can predict or pinpoint an exact cause, and more importantly how to prevent it. My guess is that it's a combination of all of those things. Throwing a baseball is not a natural movement. The human body is not physiologically designed to repeatedly throw things overhanded with extreme force.

[Gekko]

I bet Outlaw called Jamie Moyer's TJS a few years ago! LOL

[DOUGHBOYS]

I could do hours on baseball and injury. But, most would become bored, I fear.
Mike, you are using the boys throwing balls close to a window theory.
Your 'research' is the usual stuff of young, hard throwers with a slider being the most eligible for Tommy John.

When 30 boys are throwing balls against a wall with one window, your 'research' will lead you to the boy throwing closest to the window as the most likely that will break the window.
Kimbrel, Chapman, Salazar, Ventura are the boys closest to the window.
Yet, there are players like Sano, Furcal, Wieters, and even Carl Crawford who were throwing far from the window, and still shattered it.
Most of us reading this have a better arm than Carl Crawford. My chair has better arms than Carl Crawford!

Did you predict these?
The answer is no.
But when a young pitcher with a slider goes down, it was 'highly predictable'.


We cannot research a ligament. Sure, we can research the ligament itself, but in each of our bodies, that ligament is different to each person.
Nolan Ryan's ulnar was from Krypton. So was Randy Johnson's. So is Justin Verlander's.
Brian Wilson has a wimpy ulnar. So does Brandon Beachy.
Forever now, pitchers like Beachy, Fernandez, and Harvey will be the boys throwing closer to the window.
And when Tommy John happens to Sano or even Carl Crawford, the Monday morning quarterbacks get laryngitis.

[Captain Hook]

At least it is not the coded diagnosis of doom, the dreaded "strained forearm".

Sorry guys...that just sucks...what is that...the equivalent of one full season in the majors and already on the DL.

MLB has data from their new injury tracking system that is saying all these young hard throwing pitchers, if they are going down with an injury, its at between 250-550 professional innings pitched. If they make it past that, the arm surgeries go way down from that point on. Fernandez was right at 350 IP's in the pros.

MLB TV has a injury panel discussion that aired yesterday with doctors, Smoltz, Costas, Jim Kaat all discussing the high amount of arm injuries with young pitchers. The doctors can almost predict now who will need surgery. Approx 50% of all pitchers in the majors currently have had some sort of Arm surgery. 20 years ago, it was 15%. The next big one who could down based on a variety of factors is Kershaw... His mechanics alone spell doom for him. If you have a son, who's a pitcher, he needs to play catch 10 more times than he throws from a mound. Playing catch is a lost art among kids and pros.

They re re-running the show a couple of times over the next few weeks.

Do you know the name of the show? I'd like to record it.

Is the injury panel where you got the info about 250-550 ip? Or do you have another source of information?

Thanks in advance...

It is on MLB Network right now

[GetALife]

Pretty sure the slider info and most of the hypotheses drawn re the cause of tjs is from a 2002 study. That's definitely not "fresh new data." I've seen pitch type, pitch count, innings pitched, mechanics, preparation, etc as possible causes. Still nobody (except Outlaw) can predict or pinpoint an exact cause, and more importantly how to prevent it. My guess is that it's a combination of all of those things. Throwing a baseball is not a natural movement. The human body is not physiologically designed to repeatedly throw things overhanded with extreme force.

Well, this was never much of a problem until the last decade or two right? The numbers are skyrocketing. I remember in Pony league kids were throwing lots of curves and the thought was "he's going to ruin his arm from it". That was at I think 13-14 years of age.
I think one thing that hasn't been mentioned at all is weight-lifting. I played travel hockey from five years old and then played in a league post-18 that was a major scouting league for the NHL and Universities as well. One thing I will say is...... I never got injured except for a few bruises and teeth knocked out here and there. I BARELY if ever lifted any weights. I would stay away from them in P.E. class too. I thought my strength was good naturally as it was and didn't want to damage myself (which weights can do). I was never weaker than anyone else on the ice either, if anything, I was the intimidator because I was big naturally anyway.
So.....do these pitchers do a lot of lifting weights? I honestly don't have a clue what kind of workouts they do, etc. If they are lifting, doing bicep curls, triceps, etc. I really think this could be the cause too. I'm not so sure how many pitchers in the 60's through the 80's would lift weights? I don't know when weight lifting became a big deal.

[Outlaw]

Pretty sure the slider info and most of the hypotheses drawn re the cause of tjs is from a 2002 study. That's definitely not "fresh new data." I've seen pitch type, pitch count, innings pitched, mechanics, preparation, etc as possible causes. Still nobody (except Outlaw) can predict or pinpoint an exact cause, and more importantly how to prevent it. My guess is that it's a combination of all of those things. Throwing a baseball is not a natural movement. The human body is not physiologically designed to repeatedly throw things overhanded with extreme force.

It is combination of all that and more and they are looking at it all differently now. I never said I could predict, people really need to read before they rant.

MLB instituted a MLB medical injury tracking system 5 years when they felt they had a brewing problem with injuries. That system allows them identify riskier players. If one looks back just a few years, the in season IP limit employed by Some MLB teams only has been around since then. Strasburg was the first real public debate on the issue. MLB knew then they had a brewing injury problem. The data they track is way beyond what Stats LLC provides them in terms of injury tracking. It’s way different that what Elias provides them. Every team participates and every team has personnel dedicated to that program. MLB is then sharing the data with every Team.

The way they will draft this coming draft is based on all their new fresh Data. Who they elect to sign or extend at an early age will be based on their new data, especially pitchers.

Some MLB organizations have taken the data MLB has been compiling the last 4 years and use it to help compile a fresh perspective on potential draft picks. They are looking for potential draftees to answer all sorts of new questions, such as list of all travel ball teams, better HS statistics, how often they throw, when they started pitching, when they started throwing different pitches, when they hit certain "gun" speeds, Whether they play other sports, what other positions do they play, are they strictly pitchers, who are their personal coaches, will they provide all their medical records and lists of injuries, interviewing the kids HS coaches, interviewing the kids teammates, talking to the parents, having their Scouts chart differently, tracking their college seasons differently, etc... So, some MLB teams are indeed trying to identify the players with more risk, or predict who might get hurt with more certainty. As for fantasy, you can’t avoid injury prone players who have never been injured, so some will ignore this whole discussion and some maybe will try to become more educated and maybe use some of what they learn to guide them when drafting a fantasy team.

[TOXIC ASSETS]

I've gotten burned with Chris Sale on one team and Fernandez on another. Also Kris Medlen.

Injuries are predictable to a certain degree. Hard throwers are more prone to injury than soft throwers. Guys who are injured young often get injured again. Mark Prior? Going back further -- Tyler Green? I certainly hope Steven Strasburg doesn't repeat his early injury either since he's one of my favorites to watch. But I would be hesitant to draft him.
I'll tell you one group that doesn't seem to deal with arm injuries -- knuckleballers. I never remember Phil Niekro getting hurt. Wilhelm, Hough, Wakefield all had very long careers. Dickey's arm seems to be in good shape also.

[Outlaw]

I bet Outlaw called Jamie Moyer's TJS a few years ago! LOL

Nope, you are wrong...lol

[Outlaw]

I could do hours on baseball and injury. But, most would become bored, I fear.
Mike, you are using the boys throwing balls close to a window theory.
Your 'research' is the usual stuff of young, hard throwers with a slider being the most eligible for Tommy John.

When 30 boys are throwing balls against a wall with one window, your 'research' will lead you to the boy throwing closest to the window as the most likely that will break the window.
Kimbrel, Chapman, Salazar, Ventura are the boys closest to the window.
Yet, there are players like Sano, Furcal, Wieters, and even Carl Crawford who were throwing far from the window, and still shattered it.
Most of us reading this have a better arm than Carl Crawford. My chair has better arms than Carl Crawford!

Did you predict these?
The answer is no.
But when a young pitcher with a slider goes down, it was 'highly predictable'.


We cannot research a ligament. Sure, we can research the ligament itself, but in each of our bodies, that ligament is different to each person.
Nolan Ryan's ulnar was from Krypton. So was Randy Johnson's. So is Justin Verlander's.
Brian Wilson has a wimpy ulnar. So does Brandon Beachy.
Forever now, pitchers like Beachy, Fernandez, and Harvey will be the boys throwing closer to the window.
And when Tommy John happens to Sano or even Carl Crawford, the Monday morning quarterbacks get laryngitis.

So what changed the past 10-15 years? The things you mention as to what i have looked into and seen are only some of it. There is other hard data out there. Again, I'm not precicting anything. You guys are getting hung up on the few position players with bad arms, the point has nothign to do with pitchers.

[DOUGHBOYS]

And you are hung up on the 'usual suspects'.
We're not 'hung up' on position players. We are trying to say that it is not always your 'usual suspects.'
The truth is there is no predictability at all, even though you proclaimed there is.
You are looking for a 'different truth' like Mulder and Scully.
You seem to think that through data, we can project Tommy John.
You can't.

[Money]

Articles popping up all over the place on this.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/jose ... m:mlbonfox

[Outlaw]

And you are hung up on the 'usual suspects'.
We're not 'hung up' on position players. We are trying to say that it is not always your 'usual suspects.'
The truth is there is no predictability at all, even though you proclaimed there is.
You are looking for a 'different truth' like Mulder and Scully.
You seem to think that through data, we can project Tommy John.
You can't.

Dan,
I have not predicted one injury, and don't proclaim to be able to predict with any certainty, and Not Just TJ. Do I have my own opinions, yup, do I already know who I might not touch next draft season, yup, but I'm not out there proclaiming names or wanting to see any player get injured. Ever wonder why so many every day players take the Obligatory day of rest once a week, the past few years, MLB Teams know why and they are going on all the new medical data they are accumulating. They are trying to avoid bigger injury problems. How many times on these boards the past few years have posters opined "I cant believe xx player is taking the day off" or "we find out about an injury" after Monday lineups.

This much is known, its a big problem and its getting worse and MLB is attempting to address it. When it hurts their bottom lines, they take notice. Think the METS season wouldn't be different from a $$$ perspective if Harvey was healthy? Him being down is affecting their bottom line this year severely, not just their won lost record. Fantasy players would be wise too to at least consider the risks, because the Fantasy baseball world is a changin...

[DOUGHBOYS]

Mike,
You're right. You have not put a name out there. It is easier to say it was predictable after the fact.

You say MLB are giving players days off to avoid injury.
I call bullshit.
They rest them as part of the wussification of America. Not through any 'new' data. Or 'fresh' data. Or 'hard' data.
They rest them now because they have Mommy and Daddy, and their agent, and God knows who else saying they need a rest.
Sorry, I have to go on a rant here....

These players are working out like they're preparing for a best beach body contest. They're not working out for baseball.
A rest?
A rest in a sport where half the time is spent sitting on the bench!?!
A rest where almost half the other time is spent grazing in an outfield!?!
Except for a few seconds during a game, players are exhibiting no more movement than a cow in the field.
Yet, they spend zillions of hours in a gym, not for a baseball body, but for a beach body.
They look better than the cow, but the cow has a much better injury resume.

You seem to prefer the coddling of these players.
Restrict innings. Don't throw too hard. Don't run with scissors.
I have yet to see somebody get hurt running with scissors. It is THE FEAR of what could happen that prompts us to say, "Don't run with scissors!"
Now instead of 'don't run with scissors', Managers are resting a player once a week. Not pitching them after throwing two days in the bullpen. Giving them extra days between starts after throwing 120 pitches.
Is this the answer?
I don't know.
You don't know.
We all don't know.
But, it is coddling.

They're talking of lowering mounds. Of further lowering pitch counts. It's crap!
Maybe we'll start throwing like cricket hurlers. Or underhanded like softball players.
Oh wait, there was a study that softball hurlers died an earlier death from heart attacks.
We can't do that.

JUST PLAY THE GAME!
Screw data. Screw hard bodies. Screw working out all year.
Maybe working out the ulnar through beer drinking and curling that arm was the secret for former pitchers.
Agents, lawyers, doctors, physical therapists, and parents have all conspired in one way or another to ruin a beautiful game.
A game that was meant to be started in Spring and ending with the Fall Classic.
These people hardly even played the game, yet they know what is best to play it.
So, you put your faith that MLB has some sort of plan to keep players healthy.
I'll bet it's a lawyer who leads the charge. Or a doctor. Or agent.
I'll call bullshit.


Sorry for the rant.
Really, I'm not right now, but know I will be later....

[Outlaw]

Mike,
You're right. You have not put a name out there. It is easier to say it was predictable after the fact.

You say MLB are giving players days off to avoid injury.
I call bullshit.
They rest them as part of the wussification of America. Not through any 'new' data. Or 'fresh' data. Or 'hard' data.
They rest them now because they have Mommy and Daddy, and their agent, and God knows who else saying they need a rest.
Sorry, I have to go on a rant here....

These players are working out like they're preparing for a best beach body contest. They're not working out for baseball.
A rest?
A rest in a sport where half the time is spent sitting on the bench!?!
A rest where almost half the other time is spent grazing in an outfield!?!
Except for a few seconds during a game, players are exhibiting no more movement than a cow in the field.
Yet, they spend zillions of hours in a gym, not for a baseball body, but for a beach body.
They look better than the cow, but the cow has a much better injury resume.

You seem to prefer the coddling of these players.
Restrict innings. Don't throw too hard. Don't run with scissors.
I have yet to see somebody get hurt running with scissors. It is THE FEAR of what could happen that prompts us to say, "Don't run with scissors!"
Now instead of 'don't run with scissors', Managers are resting a player once a week. Not pitching them after throwing two days in the bullpen. Giving them extra days between starts after throwing 120 pitches.
Is this the answer?
I don't know.
You don't know.
We all don't know.
But, it is coddling.

They're talking of lowering mounds. Of further lowering pitch counts. It's crap!
Maybe we'll start throwing like cricket hurlers. Or underhanded like softball players.
Oh wait, there was a study that softball hurlers died an earlier death from heart attacks.
We can't do that.

JUST PLAY THE GAME!
Screw data. Screw hard bodies. Screw working out all year.
Maybe working out the ulnar through beer drinking and curling that arm was the secret for former pitchers.
Agents, lawyers, doctors, physical therapists, and parents have all conspired in one way or another to ruin a beautiful game.
A game that was meant to be started in Spring and ending with the Fall Classic.
These people hardly even played the game, yet they know what is best to play it.
So, you put your faith that MLB has some sort of plan to keep players healthy.
I'll bet it's a lawyer who leads the charge. Or a doctor. Or agent.
I'll call bullshit.


Sorry for the rant.
Really, I'm not right now, but know I will be later....

Yikes, sounds like you are longing for yester year... I guess I am too...

[swampass]

I'm getting a real kick out of some of the posters whining on this thread after they called out others for bitching on the injury thread. guess they finally had a rock thrown through their window.

to me, more injuries are a symptom of a lot of things but a big thing is that pitchers in particular are treated like little wussies. mlb network had the gall to point to fernandez's 117 pitch game prior to the SD game as a possible reason. 117? thats used to be nothing, now for some reason its perceived as this huge number. boy you hit that 100 pitch level and thats it. maybe if pitchers were allowed to throw and throw and throw they wouldnt have issues. just coddled and not even so much on starting days, but on off days is perhaps the larger issue.

dice k came to the US with a strange and intense throwing routine. the red sox didnt like it. after forcing him to change his routine after his successful first season he was never the same guy... a few years later he has TJ. coincidence? i think not.

if there is validity to the slider theory then i cant wait for the PC police to step in and demand that the pitch be outlawed. Furthermore they should probably not allow anyone to throw over 80mph as some have said that the human body just isnt made for repeatedly throwing pitches that hard!

who is next? at this rate we are looking at another 5-10 guys at least this year. i bet most like myself are running out of bench spots for DL guys.

[Captain Hook]

I know the MLB Network Roundtable show has been mentioned earlier - as of now there are no further showings but I will get a note if they do decide to run it again and will pass it on. Since they are not going to run the show again I will probably do a longer article about it at Mastersball but I thought some of you would be interested in Dr. James Andrews - this one quote about what causes elbow injuries ....

“The basic thing that parents out there and coaches and players alike need to know is if you throw with fatigue at a young age – in high school, for example, or youth baseball – you have a 36-to-1 chance of injuring your shoulder or elbow. … Fatigue could be event fatigue, seasonal fatigue or year-round fatigue, so it’s a big problem.”

“What we really found out is that [high school patients] only had one week off each year from competitive baseball and that one week was – you could guess what – between Christmas and New Year’s. So they’re playing year-round baseball - that’s the number one risk factor in youth baseball.”

“If you take a coat hanger and you bend it enough times, what happens? It breaks clean, and then of course that injury didn’t begin with that last bend, it began with all of those multiple, multiple bends. It’s a developmental ligament and the stress that it will take is only about 80-miles per hour, so our high-velocity throwers in high school – unless they’ve got great genetics - are really suspect to really injure their ligament along the way.”

[Edwards Kings]

But when a young pitcher with a slider goes down, it was 'highly predictable'.

"Mmmmmm...sliders!!!"

[Rainiers]

Injury prediction probability studies I've looked at over the years mostly do not hold water. The only one that seems to hold up is the simple hypothesis that suggests that players that have been hurt before are the ones that are more likely to get hurt in the future. Does this mean that players that have been hurt before, e.g. Tulowitski, Hanley and Cargo, will automatically get hurt again this year? No, but it does guide my draft day decisions. Possibly for the worse, but it does go into my decisions. And in the long run, I hope, it will be more helpful than not.

That doesn't mean I don't want to keep looking for more help than simply avoiding injury-prone players. And wanting to look at and understand what others think about it. Why not keep an open mind on the subject? Even if the edge is simply tipping the balance choosing between two similar players on draft day, one who you think might have less chance of getting hurt than the other? That's what fantasy sports is, simply adding up the things we each collectively feel will help better forecast future performance.

The interesting new thing to think about here, or actually from the reward vs risk thread, is that pitchers that throw violent sliders, i.e. sliders with great movement, are at greater risk of injury than ones that don't. I hadn't considered that before. It's worthy of thinking about, and with some work, could be proved or disproved. Others have looked at slider use and injury probability, you could do the same with sliders that say moved more than six inches. I'd be very interested in a study on that.

No, you won't ever come up with an exact list of who will get hurt and who won't. But to come up with variable injury risk probabilities for groups of players could be useful. I encourage guys like Outlaw who have thought a lot about this to keep posting...I'm not sure this is an impossible task.

And thanks everyone for guiding me to the correct show on injuries airing on the MLB network. I'm recording it and look forward to watching it tonight.

[DOUGHBOYS]

But when a young pitcher with a slider goes down, it was 'highly predictable'.

"Mmmmmm...sliders!!!"

HA!
THE best kind!

[Rainiers]

Outlaw,

You mention 250-550 Ip of "professional" basball in your research. What about Carlos Rondon? Doesn't his IPs at NC State contribute to wear and tear on his arm? Or pitches thrown in high school for that matter?

Where and when, and more importantly, why do you draw the starting line where you do as far as inning counting?

[BK METS]

If you remember, Jose Fernandez was shut down at the end of last season with not a huge amount of innings. The Washington Nationals are the team that loves to shut down their young pitchers and look what has happened to them. Yet the guys that throw a ton of innings every year seem to have no issues. There has to be something to that. It can't simply be sliders or change ups. Those pitches have been thrown for years.

[Edwards Kings]

But when a young pitcher with a slider goes down, it was 'highly predictable'.

"Mmmmmm...sliders!!!"

HA!
THE best kind!

Can you tell I am still on my diet?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Outlaw,

You mention 250-550 Ip of "professional" basball in your research. What about Carlos Rondon? Doesn't his IPs at NC State contribute to wear and tear on his arm? Or pitches thrown in high school for that matter?

Where and when, and more importantly, why do you draw the starting line where you do as far as inning counting?

Not to mention the bullpen innings. Or warmup pitches. Or throwing on off days.
Teams and statisticians discount these throws as not being 'stress related', yet, they are throws just the same.
Carlos Beltran hyperextended his knee in a batting cage during a game. A hitters version of a non-stress related injury.
Like a position player having Tommy John, that is simply over looked as something that just happens.
For some reason in the tech age, we want to assign numbers to blame.
Between this 250 and 550 innings. Or he threw over 125 pitches. Or too many pitches over 95 mph. Or 30 sliders.

I've told this story before, but I love it, so I will again.
In 1963, the Braves and Giants squared off.
Two of the best pitchers in baseball going at it.
Warren Spahn threw for the Braves. Spahn was 42 years old and if it was possible for a 42 year old pitcher to LOOK older than 42, Spahn did so.
Marichal was the young pitcher. He would pitch in the shadow of his generation greats of Koufax and Gibson. But, he, like Spahn, was ticketed for the Hall of Fame.

Here's a snipet out of Sports Illustrated that recounted the game....

'It would have been enough just to watch these future immortals pitch. Theirs was an irresistible matchup of experience versus youth at the peak of their powers. Spahn, 42, entered the game with an 11-3 record, had just set the alltime lefthanders' mark of 328 wins and hadn't surrendered a walk in 18 1/3 innings. Marichal, 25, was 12-3 with a 2.38 ERA and had no-hit Houston 17 days earlier.
The stars were perfectly aligned for such a classic duel.


The game was scoreless. Willie Mays threw out a runner at the plate and that was the closest either team came to scoring.
The game was tied 0-0 and going into extra innings, both starters seemingly dueling, waiting for the other to make a mistake.
Giants Manager Alvin Dark approached Marichal after the 13th inning and said he was done. Marichal looked at him in amazement.
He pointed out at the mound at Spahn. "That man is 42 years old! When he doesn't come out, I won't come out!"
The game went scoreless with Spahn and Marichal putting up zeroes in the 13th, 14th, and 15th innings.
Marichal came out for the 16th inning and retired the Braves.
In the bottom of the 16th inning, Willie Mays hit a solo homer off Spahn and the game was over.
Pitch counts were not a thought back then.
It was said that somebody reconstructed the game and that both Marichal and Spahn were said to have thrown over 200 pitches each.
After that game, Spahn went 9-1 with a 1.72 E.R.A. and threw nine complete games.
Marichal would go on to win 25 games.

This story being told, I do not ever expect anything like this again.
Hell, I doubt that will ever see a dual complete game again.
What I take most from this story is attitude.
Marichal was not going to let 'an old man' outlast him. He took it personally.
With players now being self-employed, self-interests are at the top of every agenda. Winning a game or even a battle such as Marichal's comes very low on the totem pole.

Geez Mike, you're right! I am longing for the old days today and I think I know why.
Like Matt Harvey last year, I tried not to miss a Fernandez start this year.
He was must-see baseball viewing. A kid who exuded baseball.
Like Mike Trout, but involved with every pitch.
I'll miss that.

[Hells Satans]

Who says that 5 man rotations with 110 pitch limits and 8 man bullpens is the way to go? Because that's the way it's been done?
Someday, some organization will have the balls to try a different approach.

What's the TJ rate for relievers compared to starters? Maybe teams should piggyback SP like some teams do in the minors...50-60 pitches, come out of the game, bring a new SP in, throw another 50-60 3 days later.

[headhunters]

dough- if that were today's braves marichal would have had the greatest line in fantasy history. a win 0 era about a .300 whip and about 160 k's. "marichal fans 160 braves- the uptons batting 1st and 2nd k 80 times!"