The Almighty Base On Balls

[DOUGHBOYS]

I don't know about you, but I read a lot of stuff during the off season. Probably less than what I used to read, but still plenty.
What I've noticed over the years is the three different factions of statistical baseball.
There is real baseball.
There is sabrmetric baseball.
There is fantasy baseball.
Sabrmetric, purposely in the middle. It seems to touch real baseball and fantasy baseball.
I have a strong beef with Sabrmeticians. They seem to think that whatever is good sabrmetrically is good for both real and fantasy baseball.
This just isn't so.

I don't know how many articles I've read during the off season about k/bb rates for hitters.
Maybe this matters for real baseball. I don't think it does much. It seems strike outs are rising. Live with it!
They seem to think of the strike out as the devil.
"A runner can not advance a base on a strike out!", they cry.
Well guess what?
A runner usually doesn't advance on ANY out. Grounders are usually fielders choices or double plays. Fly outs can move runners up only if hit deep enough. And pop outs are the same as a strike out.
A strike out is a demerit on the batting average, just like any other out.
QUIT TRYING TO ATTACH IMPORTANCE IN HOW AN OUT IS MADE!

Then, there is the other side of the equation.
The Walk.
Sabrs LOVE walks. They think more of a hitter who draws many walks over a hitter who walks seldom.
To me, it all depends.
Is the best hitter on your team walking a lot?
Is a walk really helping?
Is this the same hitter that teams are shifting for, almost Giving them first base?
If this hitter walks, isn't that what the defense was giving him to begin with?

The walk is only good in the right place.
I want Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon to walk. This walk turns into a double or triple and chances of that walk scoring multiplies by percentage.
But most hitters that the defense want to avoid are not fast.
They're usually power hitting slugs.
Seven hitters have over 30 walks.
Jose Bautista
Carlos Santana
Andrew McCutchen
Anthony Rizzo
Joey Votto
Adam Dunn
Mike Napoli
Except for McCutchen, these hitters are base cloggers. Most would need two hits to have them score. Meaning that a team would have to hit at least .333 during that inning for them to score.
All of these players have less runs scored than their walks.
In this way, walks are team based.
If having one of these players on my fantasy team and they walk, I curse.
I know what it will take for them to even score a run. I know that the hitters behind them are not as good as they are.
In there case, a walk is playing right into the pitchers and defense hands.

Look at this team-

C- Molina
1B- Abreu
2B- Kinsler
3B- Arenado
SS- Al Ramirez
OF- Blackmon
OF- Ad Jones
OF- B Hamilton

These guys are all having great years. They'll also be lambasted by most writers during the off season.
WHat these players all have in common is that they have all walked just 10 times or less.
Very understandable with a player like Billy Hamilton. There is no advantage to walking Hamilton. Making him earn his way on is what the pitcher and defense strives for.
The rest of the hitters are aggressive and all having great seasons.
These players will not be lauded for being aggressive. Sabrmeticians like players who go deep in counts. They think there is is some kind of advantage in getting a starting pitcher out of a game earlier.
To me, it depends on WHO that starting pitcher is and what their bullpen looks like.

Fantasy wise, it's no contest. Any seven listed in the aggressive hitters total more runs than the slugs who take walks.
Runs, by way of walks, especially if there are already outs in an inning, are few.
Avoiding a teams best hitter by walking them is, for the most part, the smart thing to do.
I see some writers still backing Carlos Santana's approach of being ultra picky.
Is he helping his team?
Hes been dropped down to sixth or seventh in the order. His walks do little good there. Still, I see writers state. 'Although his average is below .150, his obp is over .300
BFD!!!!!!!
He's a hindrance in both real and fantasy baseball. His obp is higher than Adam Jones.
SO WHAT?!?

OBP is the most over rated stat for a slug in baseball.
I don't care what Bryan Kenny or Numerish writers say.
A walk is the same as a 'pitchers shift'. A strategic avenue to help the defense throttle the offensive team.
And yet, hitters who walk are still given too much credit in being the beneficiary of this pitchers strategy.
Naysayers will say that, 'Yes, Votto, Santana, Dunn hit better earlier in a count, but most hitters do'.
DO THEY HEAR THEMSELVES?
These hitters are lauded for doing something that maybe they should not do!

AAAARRGGHH!
I get worked up sometimes, but I am so passionate about this. The walk is the same as a bunt single by Rizzo or David Ortiz into a shift. They are now on first with an out and lesser hitters coming to the plate.
The defense has won. The hitter gets praise. Gotta love the irony.
By the way, of those seven hitters that have drawn more than 30 bases on balls, only one (Toronto) plays on a team with even a .500 record.
Who is getting the last laugh?