Live Chat Thursday With Greg & Tom: Thursday

[Greg Ambrosius]

Hi Greg,
Requesting a couple games to be added to your list:
1) With the success of the auctions, can you add a TWELVE TEAM SUPER AUCTION on Sunday, March 29th @ 1pm (Bellagio). This added game will not impact the PRIMETIME game as there is one that day @ 10am. Sign me up first!
2) With no cutline this coming year, can you add back the 10 team satellites. And if you are asking me for a date, I prefer the $500 version on Monday, March 30th. Again, sign me up first!
Thanks, Tom Z

1. We'll see about a 12-team auction, Tom. This is the first request I've had on that. It's already a busy weekend out there and we have the Diamond Auction at 4 pm PT. Let me look at the schedule first.

2. We probably will add the 10-team Satellites to the schedule again. We had one $500 10-team satellite scheduled originally for Wednesday April 1 at 8 pm ET. Hope that works. Thanks.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg , As far as the software for online line Auctions, It looks like it could take Stats IT department many years to get to the programing done on this ? It might be a lot more cost affective and get the game up and running by going out and buying up one of the already existing sites ?

Since we have add 2 more Auction in NY this season for the Auction Championship. Can you let the player in the NY Super Auction vote to be private or part of the championship. All other Supers are private league. WE should be allow to decide if we want to lose $3500 out of the prize pool or Not . I don't know which way the vote would go as I have heard support on both side, but the league show have the right to decide.

I'll tell the new ownership group that, Roy.

We've always had three auctions in New York, Roy. Hopefully we fill four auction leagues there this year. Originally there was a request to have that auction league at a higher price point ($1,600 at the time) but as part of the overall championship, so we did it. Now it's at $2,500, but it remains an important part of the Auction Championship, which couldn't have a $20,000 grand prize without it. I agree with you, there are some owners who want to win a $20,000 league prize and another $20,000 in the overall championship, while others want higher 2nd and 3rd place league prizes instead. But no other Super league has up to $40,000 in potential prizes.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, I'll gladly continue to answer any contest or event questions, but let's see some baseball questions here. I haven't done enough homework and asking me some player questions will force me to dive into the numbers. Give me your best shot over the next hour and I'll give you my best answer. By the time this Live Chat is done, I can go outside and dig my car out of 4 inches of snow.

Can someone answer this: How can it be 3 degrees outside, 24 below with the wind chill and still be snowing like crazy? Isn't it too cold to snow at that temperature? Geez, I hate winter.

[Edwards Kings]

Kershaw, Hernandez, Sale, Bumgarner, Strasburg, Kluber, Scherzer, Price, Cueto, Darvish. Is that your top 10? If not, who doesn't belong and who would you rather have?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, one item we didn't get finished before the end of the baseball season or even done in time for football was the Player Accounts. We started it with the Account Management link under Home on any of your team links, but we didn't finish it all the way. Right now you can see a history of what you've spent in all of our baseball, football and basketball events under Money Spent, and a list of your outstanding payments. Those are the two options we have set up right now.

We should have the Player Accounts updated by the end of the basketball season for winning prize money to be directly deposited there at the end of each season. Then you will tell us how much you want to take out of your Player Account and be paid via check or direct deposit and how much you want to leave in your account for future contests. You will determine that, which will be a nice change for our contests. That way if you win money in the NFFC and want to use some of those winnings for the NFFC Post-Season contest, it will be a very easy transfer without additional credit card fees or without you having to wait for your winning check and then finding money to pay us in the meantime. We're excited about getting this live in 2015.

Hope this helps.

[Greg Ambrosius]

One other addition that you'll see at some point this season is player projections on our site. The first acquisition under our new ownership team was Bloomberg Sports, which some of you may know had a pretty good projections tool. In fact, in football I think it ranked No. 1 among all industry sites in accuracy on its projections. They are working on baseball now and we'd like to incorporate some of that information into our player pages, with a new line of stats called Projections.

We heard you that our player pages weren't strong enough in the past, and last year we added Rotowire Player Notes. We hope to work with Rotowire again this year and do more with them in that area. These projections should also be a nice addition. We certainly don't want to do the homework for our participants, but projections, player notes and our ADPs are all nice pieces of content that hopefully helps our players prepare for the upcoming season.

When I get more information on the projections I'll post them here. Enjoy.

[Edwards Kings]

Then there was Posey. No Mauer or Martinez or Post-Shift McCann to care about. Is catching just Posey, then the rest of the mediocre pack, or is there someone you want to go the extra $ for?

[Edwards Kings]

Matt Kemp in San Diego. Is this the highest we will ever see Matt Kemp drafted while he is in Padre exile?

[Edwards Kings]

Accepting that Rendon is getting the love he gets because of second base eligability, is Josh Donaldson really the best fantasy third baseman out there?

Signed

Todd Frazier

[Redgta91]

Hello Greg,

Every year there is the discussion of which positions have more depth than another and was wondering what your thoughts are on the topic this year.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Kershaw, Hernandez, Sale, Bumgarner, Strasburg, Kluber, Scherzer, Price, Cueto, Darvish. Is that your top 10? If not, who doesn't belong and who would you rather have?

Possibly. I'm intrigued by Price before he hits the free agent market and expect him to rise to the occasion, which means I'd probably move him up slightly from the list you have above. Darvish scares me with the injuries and Wainwright is in the same boat. I think Cole Hamels could be a Top 10 SP this year and I think Matt Harvey could be a Top 10 SP, too. He's 18 months removed from Tommy John Surgery and should bounce back in a big way. I wouldn't be afraid to ride him this year. Heck, even Sonny Gray could be a steal where he's being drafted now and finish Top 10.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Then there was Posey. No Mauer or Martinez or Post-Shift McCann to care about. Is catching just Posey, then the rest of the mediocre pack, or is there someone you want to go the extra $ for?

I've been in three drafts so far this year and I made sure I got a respectable catcher early and then just waited too long on my second catcher in each case. In each draft I just got killed with that second catcher. The dropoff after the Top 15 catchers is brutal, so remember that when you're in 15-team leagues.

Posey is head and shoulders better than anyone else here, but Lucroy is solid and Mesoraco is good. I think Wieters could bounce back and bring some depth to this position, d'Arnaud had a nice second half and maybe we see a young catcher or two come up like Pete O'Brien, Austin Hedges or Christian Bethancourt. It's a weak position, no doubt, but you never know who could emerge like Lucroy did last year.

[DOUGHBOYS]

A noted fellow and NFBC veteran told those that would listen in a draft that Bryce Harper is a 40/40 candidate.
I asked if he was drunk.
My question to you, Greg, where do you consider Harper in a draft?
Is he ahead of Puig?
Is he ahead of Marte?
Is he ahead of CarGo?

His ADP is 32. The others are behind him.
CarGo has finally felt the sting of dropping to third to even the fifth rounds in drafts due to his lack of durability.
But Harper himself, has only played 42 more games than Harper over the last three years.
Here are their lines over the last three years...

Harper- .272/210/55/149/31
CarGo - .288/196/59/193/44

Where do you put him?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Matt Kemp in San Diego. Is this the highest we will ever see Matt Kemp drafted while he is in Padre exile?

Yes, you can't deny the park effects when you're projecting season-long stats. We saw that with Cano last year and how his power just disappeared, even though he hit for average. The park can change a player's swing and affect him even on the road.

In Kemp's case, his ADP is 38 and likely to go lower. Fangraphs did a great piece on Kemp at Petco Park:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/matt-kemp-goes-to-petco/

As you can see, Petco Park in 2014 ranked as the third toughest pitcher's park, behind just AT&T Park and Safeco Field. Dodger Stadium is considered a pitcher's park, but it actually ranked 8th best for hitters last year. As Fangraphs noted, unless he changes his swing he won't be a superstar player again, not in that park. I won't disagree with their great analysis and will be weary of Kemp in that park and of course with his past injury history. Anywhere else (except San Francisco and Seattle) and he'd be a Top 30 player this year.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Accepting that Rendon is getting the love he gets because of second base eligability, is Josh Donaldson really the best fantasy third baseman out there?

Signed

Todd Frazier

Sorry Todd, but we're picking Josh Donaldson in Toronto every day of the week over you, even though you did make us love you early when you led your team to the Little League World Series!! Donaldson's move was the opposite of Kemp's; it helped his fantasy value. He's younger than Beltre and more proven than you, so no doubt about it, Josh is the top hitter to get from the Hot Corner.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Hello Greg,

Every year there is the discussion of which positions have more depth than another and was wondering what your thoughts are on the topic this year.

Well, just from early drafts I've done I sure noticed that First Base had the most interesting options even down to the 20th player. I mean, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau aren't ideal, but you can live with them. I like that position.

Catchers is the weakest position by far. Heck, I don't even mind Second Base all that much as you can still get Ben Zobrist, Howie Kendrick and Chase Utley late and not be hurt too badly. Shortstop is weak, but there's one contributing SS for each team.

I did one draft where I selected my entire infield before I took a second outfielder and I still filled out my outfield pretty well. But you'll notice a huge dropoff in power at OF earlier than expected this year. I don't think OF is as deep as it's been in recent years.

The one category that seems to go away quickly is Stolen Bases. After Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton you really have to work to cobble steals together to have a shot at a Top 4 finish in your league. That's the one category I'm investigating the most right now, looking for the sleeper pick like Mookie Betts who can help me out later on.

[Greg Ambrosius]

A noted fellow and NFBC veteran told those that would listen in a draft that Bryce Harper is a 40/40 candidate.
I asked if he was drunk.
My question to you, Greg, where do you consider Harper in a draft?
Is he ahead of Puig?
Is he ahead of Marte?
Is he ahead of CarGo?

His ADP is 32. The others are behind him.
CarGo has finally felt the sting of dropping to third to even the fifth rounds in drafts due to his lack of durability.
But Harper himself, has only played 42 more games than Harper over the last three years.
Here are their lines over the last three years...

Harper- .272/210/55/149/31
CarGo - .288/196/59/193/44

Where do you put him?

The key Dan is that Harper is still only 22 years old. Were any of us ready for the Big Stage at the age of 22? No.

His ADP now is 32, but as we get closer to March I think it will creep up to around 25, maybe even more. You don't find players with that much potential around very often and once he grows up and harnesses all of his emotions and let's his pure talent come out he will put up Trout-like numbers. I really believe it. It might not happen this year, but remember he was definitely the better prospect of the two and Trout has worked his way into the better of the two players. But time is still on Harper's side and I think he can be a franchise player for fantasy owners and the Nationals.

Yes, I'd take him ahead of each of those outfielders. He's not 40-40 because if he gets big enough to hit 40 homers he's not going to run that much. At that point, he settles into the No. 3 hole and doesn't run enough. He could go 30-15, but I think the steals will drop off while the power increases.

CarGo? Tom and I have made a pact NEVER to draft him again. I can't let Tom down.

[Greg Ambrosius]

That's all you've got for me? 30+ people online right now and only two asking questions? Sad!!!! Last chance to bring it on.

[Greg Ambrosius]

If anyone played our NFFC Post-Season Contest this year, they'll agree that we have a very unique format that takes a lot of skill to play. It's not just a pick 'em contest at the beginning and then sit back and watch the playoffs. In our NFFC Post-Season Hold 'Em Contest, you can change your lineup every week and our progressive scoring system rewards owners who pick players from the underdog teams who come through. The software that STATS created for that contest is also very cool and easy to use.

While I'm very excited about our NFBC Cutline Championship format and will push to have that ready for the 2016 season, I am intrigued about playoff fantasy leagues. With baseball expanding the number of playoff teams by two last year, it makes it even more interesting to create a fantasy baseball playoff game. I'm going to spend some time on this format as I have a pretty cool game in mind and see where it takes us. It would be fun to have an NFBC Playoff Contest in 2015 with a solid grand prize at an affordable entry fee. Feel free to drop me a note if you have some ideas, but I like the format I have in mind.

Is there any interest out there for a post-season baseball game?

[Tom Kessenich]

CarGo? Tom and I have made a pact NEVER to draft him again. I can't let Tom down.

I might take him with the final pick of a 50-round draft.

Maybe.

[Redgta91]

Do you think there will be any impact to Scherzer's ranking/adp if he signs with a team with a hitters park like Texas?

[whale4evr]

What is your outlook for these 1B's:

Prince Fielder
Chris Davis
Lucas Duda
Chris Carter

Who has best chance for 30/100 without killing BA?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Do you think there will be any impact to Scherzer's ranking/adp if he signs with a team with a hitters park like Texas?

You mean, a park like Yankee Stadium? Sure it will, but probably not enough to drop him much lower than his current ADP of 31. I mean, everyone is looking for 200+ strikeouts from their ace and he qualifies no matter where he pitches. But no doubt the park effect will factor into where he goes from his current spot of 31.

[Greg Ambrosius]

What is your outlook for these 1B's:

Prince Fielder
Chris Davis
Lucas Duda
Chris Carter

Who has best chance for 30/100 without killing BA?

This is why first base is so intriguing. I mean, Fielder in the 5th round and Joey Votto in the 6th look pretty enticing, but then you also want someone else to slap some sense into you. I'm not a Carter guy or a Duda guy because of the low, low batting averages. I probably wouldn't take either guy. Davis' average also scares me. Of this group, it's a no-brainer: Fielder. He should be 9-10 months removed from surgery and he's been awfully quiet this off-season. I can't find an update on his condition anywhere since the end of the season. I think he's hunkered down and preparing for the season. He's a proud dude and wants to get back to his elite status. I think he's worth the gamble in 2015, certainly among this group.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Just an FYI that the FSTA Industry Draft (13 teams) will air on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio next Thursday at 7 pm ET. I'm representing the NFBC and I promise not to let you down!!! I think we're picking draft spots on The Fantasy Drive on Monday at 8:15 pm ET on SiriusXM 210/87. Should be fun.