Weekly Question: Where Do You Rank Matsuzaka?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 3:16 am

Now that the Boston Red Sox have paid $51.1 million just for the right to NEGOTIATE with Daisuke Matsuzaka, it's apparent that this 26-year-old right-hander is something special. The Red Sox have until Dec. 14 to sign him to a contract and it looks like they will get him under contract for $12-$13 million per year. He was the MVP of the World Baseball Classic and appears to have the makings of a staff ace.

It's been hard enough for fantasy-leaguers to project stats of Japanese hitters for the upcoming year, but projecting a pitcher from the Japanese League is even tougher. Last year with Seibu, Matsuzaka went 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA and 200 strikeouts in 186.1 innings, with only 34 walks. He has shown great control the last four years, while striking out 200 or more hitters three of the last four years.

Okay, here's the obvious questions: Where do you think Matsuzaka will go on Draft Day? Where does he rank among the starting pitchers in 2007? How many wins do you think he can post in 2007 with the pennant-contending Red Sox?

Will he go in the top three rounds? Fourth or fifth round? Sixth through eighth round? Lower?

He's definitely a wild card in 2007. Let's see some opinions from the NFBC Content Panel and the rest of our owners and figure out where this wild card will land on Draft Day.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 3:35 am

Matsuzaka will go higher than he should for sure. His stats are eye candy and that's all people have to go on. Spring training #'s will also be good as he'll feel compelled to go all out early under the intense spotlight. He'll probably be taken no later than the 5th round which means you're expecting some kind of 16W 185K 3.00 era 1.25 hw type season. That's tough to pull down in the AL East WITHOUT the risks attached to a japanese pitcher i.e culture adjustment, incr hitter quality, lineup depth etc.

Q

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 3:45 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Matsuzaka will go higher than he should for sure. His stats are eye candy and that's all people have to go on. Spring training #'s will also be good as he'll feel compelled to go all out early under the intense spotlight. He'll probably be taken no later than the 5th round which means you're expecting some kind of 16W 185K 3.00 era 1.25 hw type season. That's tough to pull down in the AL East WITHOUT the risks attached to a japanese pitcher i.e culture adjustment, incr hitter quality, lineup depth etc.

Q Well said I agree completely- every league has one guy who probably likes the big name guys more than they should. In most leagues that guy will probably take him 2 rounds before most would consider him.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:00 am

Chest, do you think it's possible boston WON'T sign him ? He now has no negotiating leverage - Boston can low ball him which Boras wont go for...then he'll go back to the Japanese league for another year and bos will get their 51mil back. Their high bid in effect kept the guy from the yankees. (actually the mets as it turned out buy boston wouldnt have known that at the time).

Q

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:09 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Chest, do you think it's possible boston WON'T sign him ? He now has no negotiating leverage - Boston can low ball him which Boras wont go for...then he'll go back to the Japanese league for another year and bos will get their 51mil back. Their high bid in effect kept the guy from the yankees. (actually the mets as it turned out buy boston wouldnt have known that at the time).

Q Problem with your theory is I believe the 51M only buys the rights to negotiate with him, I may be wrong but the Japanese team gets the money no matter what. Gammons wrote a nice blog on why Boston bid what they did and it makes a lot of sense business wise. You have to love the Bosox starting pitching but other than that they have a ton of holes outside of the 3 and 4 spot in that lineup. Any chance Papelbon ends up back in the pen before spring training? I sure would want to try to find a number 4 starter in this market than a closer right now. I am sure they are looking at Gagne but how much can you count on him?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:23 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

Chest, do you think it's possible boston WON'T sign him ? He now has no negotiating leverage - Boston can low ball him which Boras wont go for...then he'll go back to the Japanese league for another year and bos will get their 51mil back. Their high bid in effect kept the guy from the yankees. (actually the mets as it turned out buy boston wouldnt have known that at the time).

Q Problem with your theory is I believe the 51M only buys the rights to negotiate with him, I may be wrong but the Japanese team gets the money no matter what. Gammons wrote a nice blog on why Boston bid what they did and it makes a lot of sense business wise. You have to love the Bosox starting pitching but other than that they have a ton of holes outside of the 3 and 4 spot in that lineup. Any chance Papelbon ends up back in the pen before spring training? I sure would want to try to find a number 4 starter in this market than a closer right now. I am sure they are looking at Gagne but how much can you count on him? [/QUOTE]this was pulled off some article by a reporter Shaun Tandon :

"Boston now has 30 days to seal a contract with Matsuzaka for additional money. If talks fail, Seibu can keep Matsuzaka for a ninth season but will lose the colossal sum for his rights".

otherwise Matsu would have HUGE negotiating leverage because bos would be 51m in the hole if they couldnt sign him. YOUCH. Fenway franks are going up regardless.

I think Papelbon stays in the rotation. Look at his great season last year - it got them nothing. Look at the World series closers:T.Jones and Wainwright, bos problem figures it's easier to find a closer than a #2 type starter. Besides it probably IS easier on the arm, just look at smoltz, how many arm surgs ?? yet he just had 2 great seasons as a starter at age 40 or so

Q

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:23 am

Very nice analasys Q. I agree completely. He'll go higher than he should. I do think he can do well, especially with Boston's run support. I agree with the #'s you posted there is a lot of uncertainty though. It does seem he can strike out guys. Japanese hitters aren't as free swinging as U.S. players and he is very durable. Boston may occasionally skip the 5th starter and use him, cause they can. I think Boston gets the money back if they don't sign him. What couls happen is they sign him fairly cheaply, but for only 2 or 3 years. That way he has a way out and go free agent for the really big bucks in his prime after he's proven himself. That's what I expect Boras to do. I might gamble on him in round 7. I'm sure he'll be gone by then. Thanks for the oppertunity Greg.

Tradesman Kettleers · Post by **Tradesman Kettleers** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:37 am

If the Red Sox fail to sign Matsuzaka, the Seibu Lions would then have to Refund the money. No sign, No dinero!!

As far as where in a draft Matsuzaka will go, I believe there will be a general suppression of draft status for Starting Pitching due to perceived quality of depth available in conjunction with the usual caveats of Hitting being more projectable than Pitching. Much like what is occurring with the current Mock Draft where Oswalt was the 2nd starter taken near the top of Round 4. Matsuzaka will go late 5 to early 7 barring unnatural man-love for the Japanese wunderkind!!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:55 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Problem with your theory is I believe the 51M only buys the rights to negotiate with him, I may be wrong but the Japanese team gets the money no matter what. The Red Sox have 30 days to sign Matsuzaka to a contract. If a deal cannot be completed, Matsuzaka will return to the Lions and the bid will not be paid to the Lions. Matsuzaka would have to wait at least one more year, and could return to the Major Leagues in 2008 as a free agent.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 5:02 am

Last year was Matzuzaka’s best season by far.

17 wins

2.13 ERA

0.92 WHIP

200K’s

If the Sox sign him, and he’s dominate in Spring Training, I can see him being selected in the 4th or 5th rounds. Not by me or anyone looking to win money this year, but like Chest said, it only takes one owner to buy the hype.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 5:21 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

I can see him being selected in the 4th or 5th rounds. Not by me or anyone looking to win money this year, but like Chest said, it only takes one owner to buy the hype. the beauty of the 29 round draft is that you CAN screw up the 5th round and STILL win alot of $ in this contest

Q

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 5:25 am

I've been burned by the Japanese Hype Machine way too many times. Hideki "Godzilla" Matsui was going to hit 40 homeruns for the Yankees in 2003. Kaz Matsui was a 30/30 threat for the Mets in 2004. And let's not even talk about Hideki "Fat Toad" Irabu. Ugh!!

Matsuzaka may well turn out to be the brightest star of them all -- yes, even better than Ichiro. But the bottom line is that Japanese superstars have very rarely met their expectations. As it stands now, I don't see how any NFBC owner would want to make "Suke" their ace.

Kimo · Post by **Kimo** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 5:53 am

Daisuke Matsuzaka....tough question. Never seen the guy pitch. Looking at his numbers, I can see him having a Mike Mussina type of year. AL East pitchers, I'm not afraid to take one. Mussina, Wang, Carpenter, Schilling, even second half lefty from Baltimore. Just don't take that bum Beckett. God he killed me last year in the ultimate. One thing I would follow throughout the off season is Boston's defense. Willy Mo Pena, he can't be that bad on catching a fly ball, can he? Believe it or not, Manny plays a solid left field in Boston. I think losing Gonzalaz as SS might hurt the pitching staff in Boston. I'm sure I'll be one of the 14 owners without Daisuke. I see a 6th round pick just ahead of Smoltz and a $18-20 bid in the auction draft. Looking forward to the next question. Hopefully it will be a player that I have seen play before

King of Queens, nice to see you on the BB boards. We are a lot nicer here than on the football BB.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:22 am

Originally posted by Kimo:

King of Queens, nice to see you on the BB boards. We are a lot nicer here than on the football BB. For now, anyways!

Kimo, glad to hear you're going "all in" this upcoming season. I'll be looking for you on the leaderboards.

Are you still playing in the GMDS?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:23 am

Guaranteed that at least one of every 15 will buy into the hype, meaning that someone in your league will have him as their ace. Scary stuff for someone that hasn't pitched in the Bigs yet. I foresee a Hideo Nomo type, pitching a no-no one night and following it up five days later not getting out of the second inning. It should make for an interesting spring training.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:33 am

In MOST leagues (recongizing there are gamblers in the NFBC), I think he will normally go as the second SP taken (say 7th or 8th round). I think he will had ROY credentials and he will be a "Catch Word-Mania" type in the papers (a la Nomo-Mania or Fernado-Mania).

This is not your typical arm. He has proven himself not only in Japan, but on the world stage as well. He may not strike out 200, but look for a K-average of at least 75% of Innings Pitched going agains MLB ballplayers. And he will be that durable 220+ IP guy. Good control over four pitches should leave him with a vintage Greg Maddux type of WHIP and a good ERA for the AL. Good run support as mentioned but the defense behind him TBD.

Outside of unforseen injury, I see very little risk here. Was he worth $51m just for the rights? Very few ballplayers are worth that (Ruth, Aaron, Mays, T. Williams, C. Mathewson, G. C. Alexander, N. Ryan, Fred Gladding).

Time will tell!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:42 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

This is not your typical arm. He has proven himself not only in Japan, but on the world stage as well. He may not strike out 200, but look for a K-average of at least 75% of Innings Pitched going agains MLB ballplayers. And he will be that durable 220+ IP guy. Good control over four pitches should leave him with a vintage Greg Maddux type of WHIP and a good ERA for the AL. Good run support as mentioned but the defense behind him TBD.

Outside of unforseen injury, I see very little risk here. with the stats YOU are calling for...

K-average of at least 75% of Innings Pitched

durable 220+ IP guy

vintage Greg Maddux type of WHIP

good ERA

Good run support

very little risk here

that would support a 4th or 5th round selection. it sounds like you bought the hype

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 7:42 am

I guess I did paint it on thick.

What I meant to infer was he has certainly shown the tools necessary to be an above average MLB pitcher (pitch command, etc.). His experience is somewhere between seasoned minor leaguer and major league pitcher. He hasn't proven it yet in the bigs, but there does not seem to be any holes in his skill set.

Starting Pitcher anchor for the draft? No. Somewhere just after that...yes, I think that is where he will be drafted along with the other #2 SP's.

Tradesman Kettleers · Post by **Tradesman Kettleers** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 7:53 am

If the Dice-man has a year like Nomo's first year in LA, he will easily be a top ten Starter in Fantasy and well worth a Staff Ace draft pick. How does 191 1/3IP with 234 K's,2.54ERA,1.057 WHIP, 13-6 W-L sound? That was Nomo's first year in LA. Sometimes we forget.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 7:54 am

I agree with Quahogs that the question will be a moot one because the Sox will low-ball him. They have nothing to lose by not signing him and they keep him away from the Yanks. I think they'll offer him something but it won't be near as much as he'd get as a free agent next year.

If he does pitch here, look for some translated rates of 7 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Good, not great. Nevertheless, there are a lot of pretty smart people who think he can be an ace so I don't really think someone who drafts him in fantasy is a sucker. But he's unproven here and as our mock draft reflects, he is more likely to go as a second tier pitcher.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 8:04 am

A couple of notes on Matsuzaka and his anticipated signing by the Red Sox.

1) GG is correct - if the Red Sox fail to sign DMat, they do NOT have to pay the $51 million to Seibu.

2) Because of that, I think it is Theo and the Bosox who have the leverage in his salary negotiations. Personally I don't think they will go over $7 million a year (Santana makes $8 mil a year), although they might do an incentive based contract. If his yearly contract is in the $6-8 million range, he will be making twice what he made in Japan, so both he and Seibu and thus even Boras will be highly motivated to get a deal done.

3) Matsuzaka is a lot more "major league" ready and projectable than a lot of other Japanese stars were - ask the batters who faced him in USA tour games in the last few years or those who played in the World Classic this year. Right now I would put him around 16 Wins with over 200 strikeouts. Guessing about ERA and WHIP numbers is a lot trickier, but he has pitched better in Japan in the last couple of years than Nomo did before he arrived and the previous posted referenced those numbers.

4) Outside of some Boston fans drafting in New York, I see him being drafted in the fourth or fifth round - and that could be low depending on what happens in spring training.

Looking forward to more subjects covered here and seeing any of you who venture to Sin City for the draft next March.

PVH

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 8:22 am

Originally posted by Tradesman Kettleers:

If the Dice-man has a year like Nomo's first year in LA, he will easily be a top ten Starter in Fantasy and well worth a Staff Ace draft pick. How does 191 1/3IP with 234 K's,2.54ERA,1.057 WHIP, 13-6 W-L sound? That was Nomo's first year in LA. Sometimes we forget. Great point- would love to take a roll on him as a fantasy number 2 in the right scenario but as a one that can be someone else's risk.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 11:28 am

The Nomo-Matsuzaka comparison is interesting, but they are completely different types of pitchers.

In the States, Nomo got by with his deceptive motion and a great forkball backed by a solid defense in a pitcher's park.

Although he does use the same delay/hitch so prevalent in Japanese pitchers, Matsuzaka has a much more classic delivery and throws the standard array of pitches, not relying on a forkball as an out pitch.

He comps pretty well to guys like Carpenter, Sheets and Halladay.

The buzz in Boston is they will eventually sign him for short money and short years. Epstein will insist they keep his rights for 6 years, Boras will want Oswalt type money. So Epstein will give in and agree to a clause like Hideki got that grants him free agency after 3 years while Boras will agree to a few less yen.

[ November 20, 2006, 05:29 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 9:30 pm

Judging by the current mock draft, in which Halladay was the last starter taken in the 5th round, a 6th-7th round pick looks about right. How he looks in spring training could move him another round in either direction, so I'd say no better than 5th and no worse than 8th.

[ November 21, 2006, 03:36 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 7:49 am

It looks like I disagree with some. I think Matsuzaka will be signed for at least 3 years and 35-40 million.

It opens up the Japanese market to Boston, like Matsui has done for NY. Granted, Boston is already sold out, but the TV in Japan will play Boston games.

The blocking theory sounds good, but I don't think MLB would allow it to go on. It would cause bad relations with Japan-MLB. What would stop other teams in the future from throwing out large bids to block other teams?

The one year deal won't happen...Boras can use it as a negotiating tactic, but with as much promise as Matsuzaka has, he could flop, ala, Irabu...Boras will get the money now and again in 3-4 years.

Round Taken? 5-6 sound right...should be taken? 9?