The 73rd Minute .....

[DOUGHBOYS]

Some people ask me questions like I'm an expert at fantasy baseball.
First, I am no expert.
At anything, really.
I use to think I was a hotshit pinball player until this blind kid kicked my ass.
'Who' reference.
Second, there are no fantasy baseball experts. Some think that because somebody writes well or has access to radio or tv waves, it automatically qualifies them as an expert.
They're not. They write very well. They put ideas together well that support arguments.But believe me, these are the same people that thought Joba was going to be the best pitcher in baseball and that Ryan Braun would STILL be a top fantasy player even after getting caught.
They're not experts if not knowing that Giancarlo Stanton would break out last year.
Instead, they're like you and me. Each knowing that he could break out. Not knowing.
Dynamite experts pay a stiff penalty for not being a real expert....Fantasy baseball has no such penalty.

Let's put it this way...
We have a best friend that shares the same likes and dislikes as ourselves.
When wondering whether to see a movie or not, who do you give more credence, your friend or some critic in the newspaper?
The critic is doing his best. He is telling us about the believability, quality of acting, set designers, direction, make up, costumes, all that stuff.
He described the movie to a tee. In his own eyes.
And it took him 12 paragraphs to do it.
Your friend will say one line to make you go see the movie.
"Kate Upton bares them in the 73rd minute!"
That critic isn't going to tell you that Kate Upton bared them in the 73rd minute of the movie.
Your friend will.
Sometimes, THAT is all we need to know.
Your friend isn't an expert, but knows what you like.
And while a fantasy writer can impress some with px, xpx, babip, dom, war or some other snappy abbreviation, there are some of that just want to see Kate Upton naked.


We want to know if Jose Altuve can repeat his year.
At least that is what somebody asked me.
I didn't use past numbers or abbreviations to answer him.
I just said "No".
(I can get away with that. I don't write or have access to radio or tv waves)
He asked where he should take him in drafts.
I asked, "Do YOU think his year is repeatable?"
He said "Sort of".
'Sort of', after my saying "No" to him means, "Yes, I think he can repeat, but you said "No", so I don't wanna hurt your feelings"
Ugh.
Altuve is an 11 adp.
He HAS to repeat those numbers even to retain that adp.
He's not going to hit home runs. He's not going to drive in runs. He's a three category player.A damned good three category player, but still, a three category player. Everybody before him and everybody after him, including Kershaw, Sale, and Felix are at least four category players.
Being a three category, minus HR and RBI in the first rounds of NFBC drafts?
You better play all year like the 73rd minute of that movie.

When the season begins, abbreviations and opinions go out the window. We are day to day managing and accumulated numbers from last year or the past three years mean little.
Most of the radio and tv folks will abandon you. Instead, they focus on daily games. They go where the money goes.
And that, is where the money is after Opening Day.
Some sites will stay focused on season long fantasy. Some don't.

What is this post leading to?
If believing that Jose Altuve is going to repeat or even have a better year this year, draft him.
Don't ask me....
Unless really wanting to know how I feel. But don't let me sway you.
You like him. My validation isn't needed. I'm just another guy.
I'll just say what I feel is true.
I like being asked and usually won't put numbers ahead of a visual or common sense.
Afterall, like you, I'd pay to see the 73rd minute of that movie.
Critics be damned.

[Captain Hook]

Good take Dan