Weekly Question: Where Do You Rank Matsuzaka?

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Mon Nov 27, 2006 3:42 am

Time to chime in on the Redsox decision to pay $51.1 million for the rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka. This season, Boston GM Theo Epstein doesn't have the same distractions he had last year. The results showed up in August and the Beantown crew paid the price. I think Epstein had a plan to keep Matsuzaka away from the rival Yanks and to start the process of putting a quality staff in place. That said, I think he is taking a huge risk. Relating Matsuzaka to the games we play I'll say I expect Matsuzaka to start fast (April) but then to hit the wall and struggle for the most part of the first half of the season. After the All-Star break, I think we will see what the Redsox paid all that money for. On draft day, I'd expect to see some people starting to gamble on him as a #1/#2 starter and claim him in the Serpentine draft between round 5 & 7. In most leagues, he'll last until Round 9. Personally, I'll treat him as a #4 or #5 on my teams and jump in ONLY if he is available after round #10. ( Which isn't likely ) Look for Matsuzaka to post 10-14 wins this year and move up in the SOX rotation IF they are playoff bound. For Auction purposes, he'll command at least $10 or higher. I'll let you beat me with him at that price.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 6:42 am

Thought I would give this a bump since it seems that Matsuzaka is on his way back to Boston with team officials to get a physical and presumably sign a contract with the Red Sox.

On another note, there was an "industry"* draft last night at MDC - twelve writers/analysts. I did not participate, but Todd carried the banner for us (fantasybaseball.com). In the draft, Matsuzaka went at 9.08 (the 21st SP taken which seems remarkably low to me).

*Greg - note the term

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 7:50 am

I see this every year. Players get hyped, overrated, because of what? He's never pitched in the majors. He is a HUGE question mark. Is he worth picking in the top 10 rounds? NO! Why does everybody get caught up in the hype? If he was from Australia would anybody care?

Japan compares to Double-A. Yes, there have been a few players come over and shine....but VERY few. The likelihood that this guy will outpitch Esteban Loaiza or even Jason MarquisP is unlikely.

You might bring up Nomo as a success but that happened once. I see a huge stint in the minors with a brief 5 plus e.r.a. in the majors.

I'm tired of players getting overhyped.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 8:01 am

Originally posted by BigDog:

I'm tired of players getting overhyped.

Man, if you do not like hype, how have you survived playing fantasy sports...just pulling you leg a little, but most of what goes on (especially during the winter months) is hyping up one player or another!

As to do I think Matsuzaka will out perform Jason Marquis (What did he have... like a 6.02 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, gave up 35 HR, had a 1.3 K to BB ratio and struck out less than 100 in just less than 200 IP), yes...yes I do think if/when he pitches in MLB he will be better than that. Much better.

[ December 13, 2006, 02:02 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 8:19 am

Originally posted by BigDog:

I see this every year. Players get hyped, overrated, because of what? He's never pitched in the majors. He is a HUGE question mark. Is he worth picking in the top 10 rounds? NO! Why does everybody get caught up in the hype? If he was from Australia would anybody care?

Japan compares to Double-A. Yes, there have been a few players come over and shine....but VERY few. The likelihood that this guy will outpitch Esteban Loaiza or even Jason MarquisP is unlikely.

You might bring up Nomo as a success but that happened once. I see a huge stint in the minors with a brief 5 plus e.r.a. in the majors.

I'm tired of players getting overhyped. do you thing T.Epstein threw $51m at japan just on heresay ? The stats on the back of his japanese baseball card ? Do you think it's possible he has been scouted by professionals ? Wasnt he the WBC MVP this past spring ? Word got out that he has ABILITY. Most likely witnessed 1st hand. Not everything you hear is BS either

Q

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 9:32 am

I kind of like Mats and have risen my opinion of him lately. I do agree with Q he has been thoughly scouted and they have a good idea of what they're getting. I also think it's possible the Sox bid huge knowing they weren't going to sign him. If nothing else it keeps him from wearing pinstripes. Not saying that's the case. Just saying it could be. Then all this last minute stuff is to make it look good, like they didn't do it on purpose. just a thought.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 9:38 am

Originally posted by Vander:

I kind of like Mats and have risen my opinion of him lately. I do agree with Q he has been thoughly scouted and they have a good idea of what they're getting. I also think it's possible the Sox bid huge knowing they weren't going to sign him. If nothing else it keeps him from wearing pinstripes. Not saying that's the case. Just saying it could be. Then all this last minute stuff is to make it look good, like they didn't do it on purpose. just a thought. I thought it was a possible ploy to keep him from the yanks too - apparently not :

SI.com's Jon Heyman says the Red Sox and Daisuke Matszuaka have agreed to terms on a six-year, $52 million contract.

Did someone call him from the plane? According to Heyman, the deal contains escalator clauses that could bring it up to $60 million

Q

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 4:40 am

Nowadays that is a small contract but definitely good amount considering he's never pitched here before. This seems to be as much about marketing is it is about winning. They will make that money back regardless of how well he pitches.

I'm still see 5 plus e.r.a. regardless of how good he is.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 5:38 am

Originally posted by BigDog:

Nowadays that is a small contract but definitely good amount considering he's never pitched here before. This seems to be as much about marketing is it is about winning. They will make that money back regardless of how well he pitches.

I'm still see 5 plus e.r.a. regardless of how good he is. BigDog, I will give you 4.50 and bet you a buck for every tenth of a point over or under

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 6:54 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by BigDog:

Nowadays that is a small contract but definitely good amount considering he's never pitched here before. This seems to be as much about marketing is it is about winning. They will make that money back regardless of how well he pitches.

I'm still see 5 plus e.r.a. regardless of how good he is. BigDog, I will give you 4.50 and bet you a buck for every tenth of a point over or under [/QUOTE]Perry- It is not nice to take candy from a baby.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 6:55 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by BigDog:

Nowadays that is a small contract but definitely good amount considering he's never pitched here before. This seems to be as much about marketing is it is about winning. They will make that money back regardless of how well he pitches.

I'm still see 5 plus e.r.a. regardless of how good he is. BigDog, I will give you 4.50 and bet you a buck for every tenth of a point over or under [/QUOTE]Perry- It is not nice to take candy from a baby. I will bet a cool 100 that his era is under 5.00 [/QUOTE]

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:46 am

Yo Chest - I am the guy on the low side, so you can't bet with me (unless you want the over)

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 9:22 am

Never seen a fantasy pro so hyped on a Japanese pitcher.

Yeah, the guy could have a 4.70. He won't be worth more than $2 for 2007. C'mon guys. Do you really think this guy is gonna come out blazin right out of the gate?

He has no history over here. Yes Contreras (who has some of the sickest stuff I've ever seen) pitched real well in the limited time he had his first year only to have 5 plus e.r.a. three consecutive years.

Has anybody thought about how Fenway Park will affect his stats? I don't care what you say, he's a rookie pitcher with a big contract (for a rookie that is) playing on the 2nd most recognizable team in the world. Throw in the fact he'll be pitching in a hitter's park with a DH.

Can anybody in their right mind feel comfortable picking him with their tenth pick?

Can somebody back me up here? It seems like most here will simply agree with the most popular opinion and never question it.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 9:39 am

I would take him with my 10th pick and be ok with that. Probably not higher though due to the unproven status. Could be wrong, but I think he can pitch here. Many scouts agree. It's not like they haven't seen him. He was thoughly scouted.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 9:47 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Yo Chest - I am the guy on the low side, so you can't bet with me (unless you want the over) Trust me Captain I knew you were on the low side, the only thing crazier than building your pitching staff on him as a number one is going to the other extreme of a 5.00 ERA- which I am sure he will use Beckett as a benchmark for...

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:01 am

Don't get me started on Beckett. I called a 4.50 e.r.a plus with a 1.30 whip preseason last year. Id didn't expect him to very good although not this bad. He's never pitched well away from Florida.

I picked Schmidt in the 7th round (Schilling in the 6th) and a few people in my league argued Beckett would have a better yean than Schmidt. Overrated. Sorry to get off-topic. Beckett is WAY overrated.

Chest...do we agree on anything?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:01 am

Can somebody back me up here? It seems like most here will simply agree with the most popular opinion and never question it. [/QB][/quote]

Funny you say that Perry and I rarely agree- I just think he is right here. Say something that makes more sense than I love 11x11's, Utley is good (duh), Gomes can hit 40, Kent is worth a 7th round pick in 07 and you will find plenty to agree with you. Until then good luck!

Are you joining in 07 or not?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:03 am

Chest...do we agree on anything? [/QB][/quote]

Well lets start with some common ground do you agree that you need to step up your game a ton to compete at this level? I do...

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:13 am

Chest clear your pm folder it's full.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:14 am

Originally posted by Vander:

Chest clear your pm folder it's full. sorry my man- am I going to get my more thorough draft review you promised? Be harsh I want to get better for draft day.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:19 am

I need to step up my game like Jordan needs to step up his game.

I stand by my 11x11 league. I agree we should take out a couple redundant categories and bring it down to a 9x9.

If you don't think a .290-25-90 out of 2nd baseman is worth a 7th round pick then you should have definitely not picked an outfielder (Swisher) in the 7th round who might hit .246 (career average) - 30-95

And I believe Gomes has big power potential.

Sorry if I'm not regurgitating the popular opinions that you seem to stand by.

The key to fantasy baseball is to think outside the batter's box.

Did I just coin a new fantasy phrase?

Chest, one of these days we are going to agree on something and that is gonna be a good day.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:54 am

Originally posted by BigDog:

I need to step up my game like Jordan needs to step up his game.

I stand by my 11x11 league. I agree we should take out a couple redundant categories and bring it down to a 9x9.

If you don't think a .290-25-90 out of 2nd baseman is worth a 7th round pick then you should have definitely not picked an outfielder (Swisher) in the 7th round who might hit .246 (career average) - 30-95

And I believe Gomes has big power potential.

Sorry if I'm not regurgitating the popular opinions that you seem to stand by.

The key to fantasy baseball is to think outside the batter's box.

Did I just coin a new fantasy phrase?

Chest, one of these days we are going to agree on something and that is gonna be a good day. We look forward the MJ of fantasy baseball joining our contest- can I be your Pippin, maybe Bill Wennington?

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 11:01 am

i am new so dicount what is say- but my take is 1) kent will be better than people think- the reason he might not be "worth" a 7th round pick is- you could get him in 8th or someone close in 10th. 2) we all know gomes has power-if he hits it. he will be a nice 21st round pick. in the 10th or whatever- the way tb looks now- if he doesn't hit immediately- he will be benched, so not worth that risk. 3) and being from chicago- jordon went and played in the nba- not on some cba team in pentaluma ca. until you join this thing- these guys that have played in this aren't going to put much stock in what you say.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 11:07 am

Headhunters. You are right on. I agree with everything you just said.

And until they play in my league, I don't have to take a lot of stock in what they say.

My point is, if you view players the same as everybody else you'll never uncover the gems and you'll never separate yourself in the standings.

I do think your post is on the money.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 11:15 am

Originally posted by BigDog:

Headhunters. You are right on. I agree with everything you just said.

And until they play in my league, I don't have to take a lot of stock in what they say.

My point is, if you view players the same as everybody else you'll never uncover the gems and you'll never separate yourself in the standings.

I do think your post is on the money. Your airness,

Here is the point you miss at this level people do not fall out of the sky. Guess what everyone unlike your home league you dominate knows every stat out there too. Sure you can find value and outplay but it is much more than that. Your grand ideas about where people should go in this format have to this point been dead wrong by any number of standards.

I think outside of the box is a grand defense- but not a good one.

My pal bjoak thinks outside the box- I don't always agree with him but his assesments are well thought out and occasionally correct (occasionaly correct for outside the box predictions is a pretty good track record). Support what you say with facts, blend it in to a creative overall strategy or show that you have given some effort to learning the nuances of this format and you may stop getting abused on here.

Love, Steve Kerr