How Many Closers do Winners Need?

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Sat Nov 25, 2006 8:23 am

When putting together your team, is there a number of closers you look to draft? Is there a number of saves you try to target? Do you factor in injury/risk, etc? Or do you follow the next best player available?

For those interested, here is the number of saves each league winner had...

LV

1-83

2-60

3-83

4-71

5-34

6-58

7-68

8-77

9-79

NY

1-65

2-96

3-89

4-88

5-106

6-92

7-70

TB

1-88

2-90

3-45

CHI

1-109

2-119

3-93

Average number of saves among 22 league winners = 80...

Considering this, it would seem to indicate, winners will need at least 2 closers. (All but 2 teams had totals that require at least 2 closers.) When you factor in injuries, lost jobs, etc. how many closers would you draft? What rounds do you look at drafting them?

It always helps to find a closer late in the draft, such as Papelbon last year, but when the run hits in round 5, should owners jump on board?

Getting burnt with a closer in early rounds can cause real damage. I reemeber reading an article a couple years ago, which showed closers rarely recors 30+ saves 4 years in a row. I wish I remember where I read it.

How do you target "reliable" closers?

I would think getting 2 sure things and then getting lucky later on someone who will win a job during the season, would pay off if pulled off. Which closers are reliable? Rivera? Hoffman? Wagner? All have been, but are getting older, and have missed time in the past with injuries...

For 2007, I like BJ Ryan and Joe Nathan.

hankstr · Post by **hankstr** » Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:26 pm

I have already contacted Greg, and he is allowing me to perform a ritual involving live chickens at the draft (as long as all feathers are cleaned up afterwards). It is the only reliable method I have for determining which closers will succeed.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:25 pm

Ahhh...the libation to Jobu...did Greg also say you could bring rum?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:29 pm

I think we all like Nathan and Ryan. The problem is they might go in the same round and I don't think it's wise to use 2 top 5 picks on closers. I prefer getting one stud closer while still picking up a pretty "reliable" closer in round 8 or 9.

Valverde won't be very reliable but I still think he has big upside and a decent chance to get 30-35 saves with 100 k's, not bad for a 9th rounder.

Those league winners that you mentioned did get quite a few saves, but I'm sure they did extremely well in all the other categories which is difficult if they blew 2 of their top 5 picks on closers.

Balance is the key.

Tradesman Kettleers · Post by **Tradesman Kettleers** » Sat Nov 25, 2006 3:14 pm

21 saves, and The Usual Suspects get a Top Ten finish out of T3. He only had 45( good for 63.5 pts.) where 64 saves would have been good for 157 pts. and that 90 pt. difference would have taken him from 18th to 10th. You may be able to punt a category and win your league in the NFBC, but if you punt I question whether you can compete for the overall championship.

Target 2 closers, one "elite" if possible, and one who has a job. Then be prepared to spend that FAAB. Also, it might be wise in the later rounds and reserve rounds to grab a couple of wanna-be closers. Poopy, that's all on the strategy lessons for me.. as for Sb's or anything else.. I'll let Silence be the watchword.

NoBallsNoBabies · Post by **NoBallsNoBabies** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:29 am

My strategy last year was a bit different than my strategy in 05'. In 05' I sat out on a closer til round 9 which I was lucky enough to land Chad Cordero in that spot. I had him and a late round flyer on Brandon Lyon which turned into a pretty good pick before he was injured. I spent the rest of the season trying to outbid everyone else on marginal relievers that were thrown into the closers role. This can work but it adds alot of stress to an already stressful situation.

In 06' I decided I would draft 2 proven closers early and take my chances with them not getting injured and ruining my season. I landed Wagner in the 4th and Hoffman in the 5th. This worked out as good as I could have imagined. I also picked up Saito in late April and that led to me leading Chicago League 1 in saves. I dont know which way I will go this year but either strategy can work. It just depends how strong your stomach is.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:41 am

Unless you want to ditch saves or try the FA market, which some do successfully, you need two. It is highly unlikely that those two will net you the 80 or so Saves you need to capture at least 80% of the points available in that category (I got lucky in '04 and had two 40 Save closers but it is not a strategy to bank on).

So, two will keep you in the middle of the pack (usually). During the draft I will pick up a "hot" set up guy (I picked Duchscherer in the draft). The FA pool usually has one or two guys with a good chance to be next in line. I got one of those last year as well (Otsuka). To start three closers will certainly help win that category outright, but will cost starts which hurt your Wins and K's (may help some with ERA/WHIP).

So my answer is, to get better than middle of the pack points but not hurt your W/K too bad, you need 2.5 closers. Trying to juggle that is a whole other challenge.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 9:10 am

Originally posted by NoBallsNoBabies:

My strategy last year was a bit different than my strategy in 05'. In 05' I sat out on a closer til round 9 which I was lucky enough to land Chad Cordero in that spot. I had him and a late round flyer on Brandon Lyon which turned into a pretty good pick before he was injured. I spent the rest of the season trying to outbid everyone else on marginal relievers that were thrown into the closers role. This can work but it adds alot of stress to an already stressful situation.

In 06' I decided I would draft 2 proven closers early and take my chances with them not getting injured and ruining my season. I landed Wagner in the 4th and Hoffman in the 5th. This worked out as good as I could have imagined. I also picked up Saito in late April and that led to me leading Chicago League 1 in saves. I dont know which way I will go this year but either strategy can work. It just depends how strong your stomach is. as a whole, how did your offense turn out ?

Q

NoBallsNoBabies · Post by **NoBallsNoBabies** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 9:34 am

As a whole my offense was really only lacking power. I ended up middle of the pack the HR but a little better than that in the rest of the categories. But my hitting overall wasnt as strong as my pitching. I'm not sure there is really a surefire way to go about the whole reliever situation but you have to have 2 in order to at least be in the upper third of the league.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 9:52 am

I agree, gotta have two. However two too early and the offense suffers, too late and your FAAB suffers..

Q