Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

[CC's Desperados]

4) Fielder or Votto

Fielder has been GIFT in the DC draft season. Jesus, last year he was expected to be an impact player with huge upside in power in Texas. On yeast infection later, he suddenly a huge risk. Just like Harper, he'll hit his way up the draft board in March. I like him better than Votto as I trust he'll play as his previous level. Votto is still a bargain. I grabbed him once in a draft. My final read will come with his spring training reports. Totally misplaced as a late 5th round pick.....

Prince:

There is nothing worse than a top player struggling and then going down with a major injury. Prince was a safe as they come after only missing 13 games in his previous 8 seasons. We first heard of his herniated disc in his neck on May 17th. At the time, it appeared it was a minor injury. Within 10 days, his season was over when he had surgery. In late January, Fielder declared himself ready for the season. Rather than rehash his bad start, here is his 2014 outlook as a fantasy player should view him in the same light: Fielder has averaged 111 RBI over the last 7 years due to his plus RBI chances. Last year he came to the plate with a major league high 536 runners on base. Over the past 5 years, Prince has hit with 2346 runners on base (469 per season). Overall, he hasn't been an elite run producer (16 %) as far as success rate. His K rate (16.4 %) spiked up, but it was still below his career average (17.5 %). His walk rate (10.5 %) was much shorter hitting behind Cabrera than it was with the Brewers (over 15 % in 2009 through 2011). Last year he was a better hitter against LH pitching (.292). Fielder had 7 HR's in April last season with 27 RBI, but he only hit 18 HR's with 79 RBI over his last 531 at bats. His HR/FB rate (13.5 %) was a career low in 2013. Prince has only hit .265 in 49 at bats with 4 HR's and 15 RBI in Rangers Ball Park. Fielder had success in Detroit, but his power regressed. This year he has 40+ HR upside with the move to Texas. He has consistently had plus RBI chances in his career and that trend should continue in 2014. His approach at the plate regressed slightly in 2013, but I expected it to rebound this year. Prince has 130 RBI potential hitting in this lineup. His opportunity takes a step back with Rios no longer on the team in 2015 and the Rangers have questionable depth behind him. He has been extremely discounted in the early draft season, which is a great buying opportunity. I don't see how he will hit less than 30 HR's within 100+ RBI.

Votto:

I've done three or four early drafts not once did Votto enter into my thought process. I guess I'm still pissed at him for crushing a couple teams in 2014 plus I didn't want to detour my research to get a feel for his 2015 status. Joey had a reasonable April (.280 with 4 HR's and 10 RBI) while taking 24 walks. He had an MRI in mid May, which led to him being diagnosed with a quad strain. This resulted in him missing almost 4 weeks. When he returned in June, Votto wasn't the same player (.264 with no HR's in 72 at bats - .361 SLG %). Joey was placed back on the DL in early July with the same issue. The injury was much more serious than expected, which led to him missing the rest of the season. The latest report in late January has him on track to be ready for start of spring training. Rather than rehash his poor 2014, here's his outlook headed into last year as the information should be more relevant: Votto has been a 18.6 % run producer in his first 6 seasons in the majors, but last year he had a leadoff batter RBI rate (12 %). Maybe pitcher just didn't give him anything to hit with runners on base and he expanded the zone trying to drive in runs. Joey led the NL in plate appearance (726), walks (135), and OB % (.435). His slugging % (.491) was the lowest of his career. His walk rate (18.6 %) was electric, but his K rate (19.0 %) was shorter than his last 2 seasons (17.9 %). Votto crushed RH pitching (.332 with a .501 SLG %). He even had power against lefties (9 HR's in 199 at bats). His lack of success hitting HR's was due a career low FB rate (29.2 %). His fly ball rate has declined in each of the last 4 seasons. His HR/FB rate (18.3 %) was in line with his career resume (18.8 %). Joey is one of the best hitter in the game. He is coming off a down year, which makes him a very good buying opportunity. Votto has upside in 4 categories and he will throw in some steals. His power may be limited to 30 HR upside due to swing path. I expect his RBI rate to rebound. He is a perfect .300 30/100 player that will create a nice foundation for any winning team. Overall, the Reds lineup in 2015 has more length, which will give Votto more chances at driving in runs and scoring runs. Value player especially if he has a healthy spring.

[CC's Desperados]

5) Drafting Style / theory - in this new era of baseball where the hitting numbers are down so significantly, does that change your approach to valuing the stud hitters even more or do you believe that you can gain same or bigger edge by grabbing SP early. It seems like the NFBC community values pitching more than most. Curious as to your opinion on all that.
Thanks!

The early NBFC ADP's are so weak that a top fantasy player can build a winning team in many ways in the DC's - cheat aces or double down on 2 elite arms. As the player pool starts to tighten up in the next month, it will be tough for both styles to GET OUT especially against elite owners. The key players to build an elite foundation probably won't be in the right area to finish with your ideal winning core.

Draft position is a such a key component to acquiring a trusted ace. I've already saw firsthand that doubling down on 2 aces in round one and two could lead to much weaker options than expected on the 3/4 turn. I think I would like an ace in the first 3 rounds, but I could get caught will my pants down if one or two owners go pitching strong early. The biggest question to be answered in 2015 has to be the 2nd tier aces. Can they match the top 6 or 7 pitchers? If not, do you have double down at pitching in the 3rd and 4th round with hitter/hitter start.

This year it will be real important to be patient and understand edges. The pitching depth is pretty deep so a well constructed game plan can be executed.

In a way, first and 2nd round players from previous years are being drafted in the 3rd to the 6th round so a fantasy players are just flipping the order of their team structure.

Let's just say some don't believe Altuve isn't a first round pick. If you start with him than an ace, your almost a lock to find a cleanup power hitter on the 3/4 turn. With your other pick, you have the flexibility of going in a couple of different direction (2nd ace, 20/20 player, or another banger) based on who you think will make it to the 5/6 turn. Even with a lack of first round resume, Altuve's skill set may give the best opportunity to build a balanced team if he repeats.

I think the key is identifying the most important undervalued players by ADP. Don't be afraid to target then a little early.

[EWeaver]

Sally will be a stud in the Mexican league for years to come.

[CC's Desperados]

Shawn, can you post your player rankings?

I know this was sarcasm, but I think it needs a comment.

I don't think any player can interpret my rankings or cheat sheet in the same way that I would as I couldn't do it their list. I list players in an order I like, but there is also some parallel to draft order. You really can't throw out healthy players off the cheat even if you aren't interested in drafting them. Let's say I list 30 first baseman. My game plan will lead me to say 5 or 6 options at the position. Maybe my goal is two or three 2nd tier first baseman at the 4/5 turn with a game plan from a front position. If I miss on all three, I would never take the next drop down off my cheat or the rankings. I would look to take the sliding value at another position. There is also the possibility that a better player than expected slides to me in the round I'm targeting a first baseman. Ranking and cheat sheets can't help you win if you don't know the player pool plus a fantasy player has to have a game plan to win in the non trading environment.

[CC's Desperados]

This year's Brantley? Kluber?

Just for kicks, here's my write up for Brantley last year:

Brantley didn't have a lot of value in 10 or 12 team leagues, but he was a very good backend option in 15 team leagues. He set a career high in at bats (556), runs (66), HR's (10), RBI (73), and SB's (17). Michael did a very good job with runners on base (17 % RBI rate). His K rate (11 %) was a career best. His lack of walks (6.6 % BB rate) hurts his chance of batting leadoff. Most of his power was delivered against RH pitching (9), but he did handle himself well against lefties (.276). Brantley lost his HR stroke after the All Star break (3 HR's in 223 at bats). He only hit 1 HR on the road in 282 at bats. Michael stole 46 bases in his best season in the minors. His low FB rate (29.8 %) limits his upside in power. Brantley has had growth in each season in the majors. His low K rate should lead to higher upside in batting average. He needs to steal a few more bases to make a fantasy impact in 2014. I like his progression and he may pop this year as he reaches his prime. I think he is a better option to bat leadoff for Cleveland. Possible .300 with 15 HR's and 30 SB's.

Last year Brantley had a an ADP of 222 after March 1st. I wish he was more in my game plan as I only owned him in one league. The player with close to his skill set to him is Shane Victorino. I know you probably wanted a younger player with more breakout ability and maybe upside, but aren't we just looking for improving stats? If you were hoping for a player like Steven Sousa, I'm just not feeling him as late target. I see more undervalued veteran outfielders as possible 10 round movers in ADP. Dalton Pompey is interesting, but I can't see him playing enough to be a must own plus he'll at the bottom of the lineup.

Victorino:

Victorino would fall under the bust column for Boston over the last 2 seasons due to injuries. He did play well in the playoffs in 2013 (1 HR and 12 RBI in 14 games) and he was key player late in the season of their championship run. Last year he battled a hamstring injury for the first half of the year. A back issue, that required surgery, finally did him in early August. The reports have been positive on his recovery and he is expected to be ready for the start of spring training. His speed will be question mark as we head into 2015. Over the best 2 years in what amounts to one full season, Shane had 23 stolen bases in 26 attempts. Age isn't on his side as he starts this year at age 34. He should be a nice complementary hitter for Boston while hitting lower than expected in the batting order. Victorino has a solid 15/20 skill set with upside if he stays healthy. I expected batting average and runs to be his best assets.

Souza:

Souza is a player with excellent size (6'4" and 225 lbs.), but he has underperformed his ability in the early part of his career at the lower levels of the minors. Over the last 2 years at AA and AAA, Steve has hit .328 with 33 HR's, 119 RBI, and 46 SB's in 619 at bats. Pretty exciting stat line for a young player getting called up, but he will be 26 in April. His K rate (18.4 %) was reasonable at AAA with some upside in his walk rate (12.7 %). Souza did strikes out at a lot higher rate in the lower levels of the minors so it probably won't be an easy ride to the majors. The book says he can hit the fastball, but he struggles with off speed pitches. His recent success will be real sexy on draft day and I'm sure the press will pump him up. The tough part of his resume will be stealing 1st base. Excellent power and speed if he continues his progression he showed over the last 2 years. The downside is a trip back to AAA.

Pompey:

Pompey is a home grown player who made impressive strides at 3 levels of the minors in 2014. His success led to a September call up. His K rate (27.9 %) in the majors suggest his ride in 2015 won't be easy. Dalton should be a plus defender with a solid arm. His walk rate (11.7 %) was in a top of the order area in his minor league career. Pompey has 113 SB's in 1221 at bats in his minor league career. He has more triples (23) than HR's (22). The Blue Jays 2015 team structure is set up to give him a solid chance at winning the starting job, but his short resume at the upper levels of the minors (53 at bats) will temper my expectation in this year. Dalton will have upside in speed when he proves he can hit major league pitching. Bench flyer in deep leagues.

The arm with the most ace upside in 2015 drafted after round 10 is probably Michael Wacha, but he does have some risk after his shoulder problem last year. His ADP is around 167 in the DC draft season.

Wacha was giving fantasy players ace upside dreams after his first 4 starts of the year (1.73 ERA and 25 K's in 26 innings). In his next start, Michael struck out 9 of the first 12 batters (2 walks and single), which was exciting for his upside. Unfortunately, Wacha couldn't make it through the 5th inning. The game was played with wind gust up to 31 mph. His walk rate (2.8) started to show some weakness over 8 starts (21 in 58.3 innings - 3.2 per 9). After 17 starts, he had a 2.79 ERA with 8.3 K's per 9. A sore right shoulder (scapula) led to 10+ weeks on the DL. When Michael returned in September, he wasn't the same pitcher (5.40 ERA with a short K rate {5.9}). HIs AFB (93.2) was a slight tick below 2013 (93.5). His changeup was his #2 pitch followed by a curveball and improving cutter. Wacha had more success against lefties (.224 with a .286 SLG %). He went 5-0 at home with a 2.44 ERA and 0-6 on the road with a 4.01 ERA). In late January, a report stated that Michael had a healthy elbow with his shoulder fully healed. The elbow part of the statement does bother me a bit as it was the first time his elbow was mentioned as having an issue or should I say "none issue". Exciting player with ace upside. He had a career 2.25 ERA in the minors with 114 K's in 108 innings. Sub 3.00 ERA with a possible innings cap (170 - 180). His shoulder does invite risk, but his price is low enough where he could be a 3rd elite arm on your fantasy team.
I'm intrigued by Zack Wheeler if his command can make a step forward.

Wheeler handled himself well in his first season in the majors. He had an excellent K rate (9.1) while batters only hit .240 against him (Righties - .223 and Lefties - .259). His struggles with walks is mainly to LH batters (50 of 79 walks in 386 plate appearances). His first pitch strike rate (54.3 %) is in a weak area and it restricts his development in command. After a rough May and June (4.36 ERA), Zack started to figure it out over his last 15 starts of the year (8-3 with a 2.80 ERA with 92 K's in 90 innings). Even with some growth, his walk rate (3.7) only improved slightly from his first half (4.0). His AFB (95.0) is elite with a solid curveball and slider followed by an improving changeup. His HR/FB rate (10.1 %) is a bit high, but Wheeler does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (54.0 % GB rate). Excellent developing arm with much more upside when he unlocks the keys to repeating his delivery. Possible sub 3.00 ERA with 200 K's if he can shave 15 walks. For now, Zack still has high whip risk.

[CC's Desperados]

Mr Childs,
Excluding the k/9 rate and bapip. What other two pitching statistics do you deem most important to your projections (or 2015 predictions) and why ? Can you give some examples of pitchers in 2014 that you nailed by relying on those two metrics ?

You know a can't stand BABip as a stat. He is why:

I don't respect the value how writers to try represent how BABip is related to a team's defense. The bottom line in base baseball is: if player hits the ball hard, he gets hits. Barry Bonds has a career BABip of .285 yet his major league average is .298. What does this lame BABip stat tell, he was unlucky his whole career. His CTBA for his career was .403. Now that's impressive, Every time he hit the ball in play he hit over .400. This tell me the fantasy player that this player has talent. Every major league player has their own level of BABip and CTBA. The CTBA tells a better story in my mind. On the bright side, Ichiro Suzuki has a career BABip of .344 with a real batting average of .317 (CTBA of .356).
I think first strike rate and overall strike rate are very important keys to a pitchers success.

Carrasco threw 67 % first pitch strikes in the majors in 2013.

After missing all of the 2012 season due to TJ surgery in September of 2011, Carrasco returned to the majors last year. Carlos allowed 6 runs or more in 4 of his first 6 starts with Cleveland, which led to him being sent back to AAA. He has a poor walk rate (3.5) and a short K rate (5.8). Both RH (.309) and LH (.351) batters had success against him, but he struggled with his command vs. lefties (13 walks and 10 K's). His AFB (94.9) was elite and it was a career high. He threw a changeup as his #2 pitch followed by a slider and curveball. Carrasco had success at AAA in 2013 with excellent command (2.6) and a plus K rate (9.9). His major resume looks pretty bad so he will be easily overlooked. Possible breakthrough season, but a fantasy player may need a short leash.

Here's one on the failing side:

Matt Moore:

The average fantasy player is going to look at Moore's 2013 stats and believe he made a huge step forward. His ERA (3.29) improved, but his command (4.5) and K rate (8.6) declined. He allowed the most wild pitches (17) in the league. His first strikes % (51) was in Jimenez or Liriano disaster area. Last year Tampa scored 6 runs or more 12 times in his starts. He was 16 -1 when the Rays scored 3 runs or more. In his 17 wins, Moore had a 1.67 ERA and he only allowed 60 hits in 107.7 innings (.157 BAA). Overall, he dominated both side of the plate (LH - .222 and RH - .213). His command is still weaker against LH batters. Moore missed six week last season with a sore elbow. His AFB (92.4) was 2 mph lower than 2012. Matt throws a curveball and changeup a high % of the time. Moore allowed 19 runs and 38 base runners in 12.2 innings over a 3 game stretch in early June. Without those 3 games in his stat line, he had a 2.35 ERA and 1.14 whip. His lack of success in those starts suggests his elbow may have been bothering him in June. Overall Moore allowed 2 runs or less 17 times in 27 starts. Matt has an upside arm that could be electric if his command could make a huge step forward. The elbow issue is a concern for sure and he had poor command when he returned in September (20 walks in 28 innings). There hasn't been any negative reports in the offseason so he should be 100 % healthy in spring training. Moore isn't ready to be a fantasy ace due to his poor command, but he has enough talent to be an upside SP2 with some whip risk.

[CC's Desperados]

CarGo or Kemp?

Cargo has a lot more risk, but his park gives him elite upside. I expected Kemp to play well while his bar for upside is a step down from his prime. If you want the safer play, I'd go with Kemp. Cargo is a top 10 players in baseball when healthy with plenty of talent around him.

2014 was a lost season for Cargo. He struggled through his first 190 at bats (.258 with 8 HR's, 31 RBI and 2 SB's) due to an issue with inflammation in his left index finger. Carlos ended up having minor surgery on June 10th to have a small tumor removed. Gonzalez return to the lineup just before the All Star break, but his bat had no value (.188 with 3 HR's and 7 RBI in 64 at bats) as his K rate (36.2 %) was off the chart. His season ended in August with a right ankle injury and tendinitis in his left knee. Carlos had surgery to repair a left patellar issue in mid August. He was cleared to hit in late December. Gonzalez won't be cleared to cut while running until spring training. His K rate (24.9 %) has been well below his best seasons in 2011 (19.4 %) and 2012 (19.9 %) over the last 2 years. Last year we even saw regression in his walk rate (6.8 %). Over the previous 4 years, Cargo was one of the best players in the game in delivering stats per at bat. His downside has always been his injury prone resume. Over the last 4 seasons, Carlos has missed 206 games. Solid .300 hitter due his huge CTBA (.432 in 2013 only .326 in 2014). His speed could be an issue this season after the knee surgery. His bat has 30+ HR upside with 550 at bats. Bounce back candidate who is being discounted on draft day. I need to see him in game action before investing.

Kemp:

Kemp was a gift on draft day in 2014 after being discounted due to his injuries over the previous 2 seasons. After being eased into action in April and May (.248 with 5 HR's, 15 RBI, and 5 SB's in 165 at bats), Matt found his rhythm over the last 4 months of the year (.303 with 20 HR's, 74 RBI, and 3 SB's in 376 at bats). His only missing asset was his speed. Kemp had his most success against RH pitching (.295 with a .524 SLG %). His K rate (24.2 %) still invites some batting average risk if it wasn't for an elite CTBA (.391). His walk rate (8.7 %) has been above his career average in 3 of the last 4 seasons. His HR/FB rate (20.0 %) was in line with his 2011 (21.4 %) and 2012 (21.7 %) seasons. His upside in HR's was restricted by a career low FB rate (31.1 %). Matt is a career .322 hitter at Petco with 7 HR's, 34 RBI and 8 SB's in 214 at bats. In December, a physical showed that Kemp is dealing with severe arthritis in both hips. He remains a top player in the game with some injury risk plus his speed won't be as explosive as it was earlier in his career. The change in ballparks will take away some of his upside. Possible .280 with 25 HR's, 100 RBI, and 10 SB's.

[CC's Desperados]

Shawn,
What is your philosophy regarding heavy workloads (unusual)? How would you approach pitchers like Ventura and Baumgarner that had heavy workloads in the prior year? Do you drop them down a peg? If so, how far?

Before looking at Bumgarner, I was thinking the innings was were going to be an issue as well. I like how he finished plus he had more velocity in October. I think he has more upside, but wins could be tougher in 2015.

Bumgarner delivered his 2nd straight ace season. His walk rate (1.9) was a career best thanks to growth in his first pitch strike rate (66.5 %). This led to a career high K rate (9.1). Madison has thrown over 200 innings in his last 4 seasons. He'll enter 2015 with some fear due to his huge innings total (270.0) due to a deep playoff run. Bumgarner went 4-1 in the post season with a 1.03 ERA and 45 K's in 52.7 innings. Even with his ace results, there are times when Madison disappears. Over a 7 game stretch from mid June through the end of July, he allowed 25 runs and 61 base runners over 57.3 innings - 3.92 ERA. All 5 of his failed starts were at home. Bumgarner had success against both RH (.244) and LH (.224) batters. His mid season slump at home led to a 4.03 ERA on the year. He was at his best on the road (11-4 with a 2.22 ERA). His AFB (92.1) was a career high with his most velocity coming in the playoffs (93.6). His slider (.267 - really a cutter) remains his #2 pitch followed by solid curveball (.211) and changeup (.242). Batters only hit .186 against his fourseam fastball. His FB rate (35.8 %) is trending upward with a high HR/FB rate (10.0 %). Madison is getting stronger where his fastball is now approaching his early minor league career. His growth in command is a sign of more upside, The high volume of work may lead to a slight step back, but I think he has more in the tank. Wins could be a struggle with a sub 2.50 ERA within reach if he cuts down on his bad starts. The growth in fastball should lead to more K's.

I agree on Ventura's innings plus he had the elbow issue. I think I'll fade him this year even with him having an electric fastball with ace upside. My sense is that he will be drafted higher than my price point so I'll let him beat me.

The Royals leaned on Ventura last year in their quest to win a World Series. He threw 208.3 innings including the playoffs. His K rate (7.4) was a step up from his short innings (15.1) in 2013, but it remains well below his minor league career (9.9). Yordano still needs to work on his walk rate (3.4). Ventura missed a start in June with a minor elbow injury and another in late August with a back issue. His success was pretty close in both half of the year (3.22 and 3.16) with exception of a few walks (4.3 walk rate after the break). After a fast start in April (1.50 ERA with 31 K's in 30 innings), Yordano was smacked around in May (0-4 with a 5.60 ERA). Over his last 16 starts, he went 9-3 with a 3.14 ERA with 83 K's in 94.7 innings. His AFB (97.0) is one of the best in the game. His changeup was his #2 pitch followed by a curveball and an occasional cutter. His HR/FB rate (8.3 %) was a plus. Ventura tends to be a GB pitcher (47.6 %) as well. His innings jumped by 58.3 innings in one season. His velocity had a slight down tick in May, but overall it held up pretty well all season. Yordano has ace upside with more growth in his command. Many may fear his high innings and his early elbow issue, but he did enough where growth should be expected in 2015. Possible 15 wins with 200+ K's.

[CC's Desperados]

"Red Sox manager John Farrell said Friday that, as long as he's healthy, Shane Victorino is "our right fielder."
Farrell added that Victorino, who battled back and hamstring issues in 2014 (eventually needing back surgery in August), is a "full go" right now. The general feeling has been that Mookie Betts was the favorite to start over Victorino in right, so this news throws some cold water onto his fantasy prospects. However, with the injury-prone Victorino and Hanley Ramirez manning the corner outfield spots and the inexperienced Rusney Castillo in center, there's still a good chance Betts sees ample playing time. If healthy, Victorino should have some fantasy value left in the tank, but that's a big "if." "
Are you buying any of this Shawn? Or is this a set-up to pump up Victorino's (seemingly non-existent) trade value?

Betts is going to play 120+ game. He has electric upside with best skill set to bat leadoff. The odd man out for me is Bogaerts. I still believe Hanley will play a short at least part of the time. I'd love the Sox to play Napoli behind the plate for 70 games this year. It would open up playing time for Betts and Bogaerts.

Victorino is getting paid $16 million plus he a proven talent. He is going to play when he is healthy. To me, Castillo is the player with the most to prove. I also believe injuries with solve the playing time issue.

I'm have Betts batting leadoff.

Betts is an intriguing prospect for the Red Sox in 2015, but he isn't a lock to be an everyday player. John Farrell stated in December that Mookie was the favorite to win the leadoff job. He hit .315 over about 3 seasons in the minors with 26 HR's, 163 RBI, and 92 SB's in 1116 at bats. This projects to 15/80/45 over 550 at bats. His walk rate (13.3 %) has been exceptional in the minors with a low K rate (10.5 %). When given regular at bats in September with the Sox, he hit .317 with 2 HR's, 10 RBI, and 3 SB's. The best Boston lineup has him in it even if it is at the expense of Bogaerts. Betts is a player to follow this spring as he has impact upside with full time at bats.

[whale4evr]

Cole or Wheeler?

[CC's Desperados]

Shawn, what do you think has changed the most strategically about competing for the Main Event vs. say 5 years back?

The fantasy players are getting better plus the inventory seems to have a lot more failure at the front end of the draft. A fantasy player has a ton more information to help them plan for the main event, but three months of prep can be throw out the window after a week's worth of injuries in March plus a couple of days of hot hitting and pitching in spring training.

Today's fantasy player have to think more on the fly and I really think you can throw out the ADP list over the last two weeks of the draft season. The pieces to puzzle are now in different order while the winning plan remains the same.

It is really important to think out decision making before draft day. The more pregame work will lead to less mistakes when you are on the clock.

[CC's Desperados]

Also, I noticed in one of your published cheat sheets that you had certain players, for example Outfielders, listed as "balance" players. How do you deploy your list of "balance" players in actual practice of a draft?

The outfield position offers a wide variety of skill sets. It is important to separate the player pool in multiple groups. I try to use these groups:

Studs: Solid four and five category players that will hit in a premium part of the batting order.

20/20 players: Solid power and speed players with the highest ranking players having the most upside in batting average. These players probably don't bat 3rd or 4th in the order.

10/30: These player have more the most value in speed with double digit power. Speed and batting order slots are keys.
Judy's: Pure speed player with no power (less than 5 HR's)

20/80/Over .270 BA: Solid power bats while being a slight asset in BA.

20/80/Under .270 BA: Basically low average power drags

Each team's outfield will compliment their infield team structure. It's just a matter of which aisle you will be shopping in to build a balance team later in the draft.

[CC's Desperados]

Shawn what are your thoughts on Jean Segura? Was last year a lost year due to the loss of his child? Is he a big bounceback candidate for you or is being relegated to the bottom of the order going to hinder his value?

He has the ideal skill set a fantasy player is looking for at a middle infield position if he could repeat his 2013 success. He has more size than it appears, but his GB rate (58.9 %) does really hurt his upside in power without a change in swing path. I'd love for him to play well in March to give him a shot to hit 1st or 2nd in the batting order. A player to follow for sure.

Segura:

Segura went from possible stud to dud in one easy season. His power turned out to be a trap. His AVH (1.325) regressed as well as his ability to hit the ball hard (CTBA - .284). His season started with a right shoulder injury late in spring training, but he didn't need a DL stint. Jean missed a couple of games late in April due a concussion issue after taking a bat to the head by Ryan Braun. After swinging the bat well against lefties in 2013 (.317 with a .507 SLG %), Segura was Judy like against LH pitching (.182 with a .236 SLG %). This really points to his shoulder issue. Over his last 4 months of the year, Jean only hit .231 with 3 HR's, 16 RBI, and 10 SB's in 312 at bats. His K rate (12.6 %) was a career best while his walk rate (5.0 %) is still well below a top of an order hitter. His GB rate (58.9 %) was in line with 2013 and it remains in a power restricting area. His HR/FB rate (5.1 %) was more than 50 % lower than his previous success (10.4 %). Segura is a career .313 hitter in the minors with 26 HR's, 207 RBI, and 139 SB's in 1570 at bats. Rough year for sure, but his resume does support more upside. It's tough to believe in a power spike due to the high volume of ground balls, but he has become stronger over the last couple of years. His run rate (40 %) is a number that stands out to me. If he gets on base, Jean is going to have value scoring runs. Segura has a 10/35 skill set with upside in average. His steals have a higher ceiling than his HR's.

[ALL-IN JD]

Shawn,

Yes/No for over 10 saves this year:

Neshek
Gregerson
A. Miller
C. Janssen
A. Sanchez
Boxberger
Giles
Axford
Clippard
Romo

[CC's Desperados]

How do you see the Dodgers handling Joc Pederson? If/when he wins the job out of spring where do you see him batting in the lineup?
How long does Cleveland go with Jose Ramirez at SS, or will Lindor win the job outright?
Is this the year Bryce Harper stays healthy and lives up to some of the expectations?

I have a tough time believing Peterson won't be in the opening day lineup. I really wanted to put him higher in the batting order, but LA has too much experience so he'll have to start the year hitting 8th. I don't think it is a strike as he could move quickly when he finds his stroke or an injury creates a better opportunity.

Pederson looks ready to make his living in the majors. He has a full AAA season on his resume with an exciting 30/30 skill set. His AVH (1.919) is trending upward, which points to solid power in year 1. Last year he crushed the ball when he made contact (.456), but his K rate (26.9 %) did make a huge step backwards (21.9 % in 2013 at AA). His walk rate (14.2 %) is in a top of the order range. Joc hit .316 vs. righties in the minors with a .566 SLG %. Overall, he hit .293 in the minors with 90 HR's, 290 RBI, and 118 SB's in 1803 at bats. Pederson will enter the majors with a 20/20 skill set with some bating average risk. His future should be a #3 hitter with even more upside. If he struggles early, Puig could move to center with Ethier stealing some at bats. In his 28 at bats in the majors in September, Joc hit .143 with a 29.0 % K rate and 23.7 % walk rate.
Ramirez is a nice player, but he doesn't have the upside of Lindor. I expect Ramirez to start the year at short with Lindor stealing the job at some point during the season. Francisco could even end up batting near the top of the lineup over the 2nd half of the year.

Ramirez:

The Indians have cleared the shortstop position for Ramirez this year. Jose hit .306 in his minor league career with 12 HR's, 114 RBI, and 86 SB's in 1209 at bats. Ramirez is a real tough player to strike out (8.5 % K rate in the minors - 13.2 % in the majors). His walk rate (7.1 %) projects to be below league average. Jose was a better hitter against LH pitching (.291) in the majors. Over the last 2 months of the year with regular at bats, Ramirez hit .280 with 2 HR's, 15 RBI, and 10 SB's in 189 at bats. His skill projects to be a 5/30 player with a positive batting average early in his career. His minor league resume suggests more upside in speed, but he needs to improve on his success rate (68.3 %). His LD rate (24.4 %) was very good with Cleveland, which supports his stable batting average. His HR/FB rate (3.5 %) gives him no upside in power. His arm isn't ideal for short. Ramirez is a line drive hitter with batting average and steals being his only assets. His skill set may end up being better than Bourn. 40 SB upside with no value in HR's or RBI with a full season of at bats, but he is probably just a place holder for SS Francisco Lindor.

Lindor:

Lindor is on the fast track to the majors. He is a career .278 hitter in the minors with 19 HR's, 140 RBI, and 81 SB's in 1419 at bats. Francisco has already played 1/3 of a season at AAA (.273 with 5 HR's, 14 RBI, and 3 SB's in 165 at bats). His K rate (14.0 %) is solid with a willingness to take walk (9.9 % walk rate). His approach did fade at AAA so Lindor may need a couple of months of seasoning. Just like Ramirez, he needs to improve on his base stealing (69.8 % success rate). His power started to show growth in 2014 (11 HR's). He projects to be the starting shortstop of the future for Cleveland with top of the order ability. His approach is strong enough where he could make the team out of spring training. Lindor is the more attractive bet than Ramirez for me.

I talked about Harper earlier in the chat.

For the 2nd straight season, Harper has struggled with injuries. He missed two months with a torn ligament in his left thumb, which happened while sliding head first into 3rd base. In April, Bryce hit .289 with 1 HR's and 9 RBI in 83 at bats. When he returned to the lineup in July, Harper struggled to make hard contact (.228 with a .342 SLG %), which led to a spike in his K rate (29.3 %). In August, it appeared he tried to open up his swing to deliver more power (7 HR's in 104 at bats), but his approach faded (32.2 % K rate). His bat settled down in September (20.4 % K rate), but his production was no where to be found (3 HR's and 4 RBI in 83 at bats). Bryce held his own in the playoffs (.294 with 3 HR's and 4 RBI in 17 at bats - 3 K's). On the year, his K rate (26.3 %) was 7.6 % higher than 2013 with a slide in his walk rate (9.6 % - 12.3 %). On the positive, Harper did have his most success when making contact (.387). He hit .276 against righties and .263 against LH pitching. His HR/FB rate (15.5 %) was a slight step back from his last 2 years (2012 - 16.2 % and 2013 - 18.0 %). His FB rate (34.6 %) is rising slightly with a declining GB rate (43.6 %). Everyone knows his upside, but he can't be productive when he is on the DL. At this point of his career, he shouldn't hit 3rd in the batting order due to his weak RBI rate (11 %). His bat has high upside in power and his speed should return. The Nationals have two players hitting at the top of the lineup that will be on base a minimum of 450 times, which is a great RBI opportunity for Harper if he can handle the job. If he fails, Washington may just flip him and Rendon in the batting order. Bryce has .300 batting average potential with 30+ HR upside and his speed projects to be over 20 in many seasons. His price point is more than fair and his opportunity and upside may make him a top 5 player selected in the 2016 draft season.

[CC's Desperados]

Mordecai Brown was a great pitcher back in his day.
'Three Fingers' Brown would be a nickname not given anybody now, in our politically correct world.
My question is, as a bowler, would he have had an advantage or disadvantage over others?

Any MAN with longer fingers has an advantage:) Not sure if a 3rd is anything special....

[CC's Desperados]

Your strategy in the early years was "75 SBs, 75 HRs in the first three rounds." What do you want from your first three hitters these days? And do you now take a Starting Pitcher with one of your first three picks instead?

Tough finding the key power bats with plenty of speed floating around in the draft late. The goal is always 75/75 with the first 3 batters, but sometimes you can buy a round or two to build your batting core due to the change in draft flow. Read an react...

[CC's Desperados]

Shawn,
Could you give your opinion on players drafted in rounds 3, 4, and 5 that could return first round value?
Just looking for a couple names and why.

Harper - discussed already

Kemp - His final stats were close last year with more speed plus he's been there before.

Cargo: One of the most productive batters per at bat in baseball. He just needs to stay healthy.

Fielder and Votto: Both proven players with long resumes that have delivered first round value in the past..

[CC's Desperados]

When you and Bob Mazur talk to each other on the phone and each of you have your Bluetooth pieces in, can either one of you hear what the other is saying? Doesn't the whole conversation sound like the bad speakers during an order through the McDonald's drive-through?

I'm not allowed to talk to anyone with a Blue Tooth.....I haven't talked to Bob in a while. I'll try it this weekend!

[CC's Desperados]

Should we be worried that DFS is going to take over the sports world or is there still a place in our hobby for season-long games? After making it to Las Vegas in football and having a shot at the Fanduel $2 million grand prize, you saw first-hand how great those national contests can be. Do they continue to get bigger and bigger in every sport? Is DFS baseball a different animal than DFS football?

The season long games give you more bang for your buck plus skill is a bigger factor.

Fanduel has reached a high level with DraftKings making them push every dollar back into the game to remain the King of the Hill.

There is no doubt daily fantasy football is a great game. If your season long teams fail early, you still have plenty of options to have skin in the game. What's better than a chance to win $1,000,000 on a Sunday for $27? The big stacks have a huge advantage, but the low dollars can still beat them in a big field with a full slate of games.

Daily baseball just burns you out. It's too much work. Both Fandual and DraftKings haven't figured out how to create a football type of experience at a low dollar amount in baseball. There isn't enough time between the start of games plus the release of lineups to fill these huge fields. They don't have enough low volume players to support the game so they rely on the churn of their high dollar players who are trying earn a low % until they pop a big win.

DraftKings is really pushing the envelop of prizes to build revenue so they can get one more round of money. Both sites have a couple of years to become profitable (Fanduel is making money now I believe) before taking on massive losses if they drop back the overall prizes.

Any player that leave the season long games will be back in the future. I'm not sure about next generation as they started their fantasy career in the fast lane.

If you really think about it, the season long games in baseball may have an underlying vehicle with more upside if you structure an "in between game" properly.

[glenlake22]

Hi Shawn

Dickerson or Springer? Or both?

[CC's Desperados]

Longtime listener, first time caller:

Speaking of bowling, my boy loves to watch Jason Belmonte on the PBA circuit. Have you ever rolled a complete game throwing the ball like he does, with no fingers in the ball? It's amazing how good he is with that stupid form!!

Okay, I'll hang up now and listen.

He has his fingers in the ball. I've thrown the ball with no thumb hole, but I can't get down that 2 handed shot.

[CC's Desperados]

How much do you consider the adp in your draft strategy and can you name players you like that are being drafted much lower
than they should be?

ADP is just a guide for me. There are times when you want to jump a player and finesse a player, but that more falls on the other owners in the league.

I'm sure I could name a few, but I'm still not really in game plan mode. I'm about a week away from really putting together my plan. When I get there, I'll have a group of targeted players. Just tune into LABR, you will get some of the answers you are looking for.

[glenlake22]

Do you envision a change in category structure ever catching on in the NFBC? Over the years I've suggested replacing AVG with OBP and HR with TB. Wins of course is the most frustrating of them all but a good replacement category is tough to find. What are your thoughts on this?

[glenlake22]

since we're talking bowling....I'm a bowler and do not use my thumbhole. Don't do it quite as well as belamonte but do it nonetheless.