Ranking The First Basemen

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 5:37 am

Okay, 15 members of our NFBC Content Panel supplied their Top 20 rankings of First Basemen for us heading into this year's NFBC draft. The compilation of rankings are as follows:

1. Albert Pujols

2. Ryan Howard

3. Lance Berkman

4. Mark Teixeira

5. Derrek Lee

6. Justin Morneau

7. Paul Konerko

8. Carlos Delgado

9. Prince Fielder

10. Todd Helton

11. Richie Sexson

12. Jason Giambi

13. Lyle Overbay

14. Adam LaRoche

15. Adrian Gonzalez

16. Nick Swisher

17. Nick Johnson

18. Nomar Garciaparra

19. Conor Jackson

20. Kevin Youkilis

Here's some interesting facts:

** Pujols was selected No. 1 by 14 of our 15 panelists. One person chose Ryan Howard No. 1.

** Howard was selected second 13 times, 1st once and 4th once.

** Derrek Lee earned one ranking as high as 2nd and one as low as 8th.

** Todd Helton was ranked as high as 6th and as low as 20th. Conversely, Richie Sexson was ranked as high as 9th and as low as 16th.

** Nick Johnson was as high as 9th twice and as low as 20th twice.

Victor Martinez did play 22 games at first base last year and wasn't included within these rankings, but he definitely will crack the Top 10 in our Fantasy Sports Magazine rankings. Most fantasy-leaguers will play him at catcher, but it's good to know that he does have multiple positions to play at in 2007.

No rookies were included in the Top 20 listings.

Thoughts on our consensus first ranking??

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:57 am

Helton #10 huh ? I never did read about any extensive injury last season but you have to wonder about that back of his. His power has been sapped and he has become Sean Casey.

Q

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:01 pm

random thoughts ...

I think there is still a decent gap between Pujols and the rest of the field. Odds that Howard will hit 50 HR's next season? ... less than 50/50.

Surprised Tex is ahead of Morneau after hitting 40 pts lower with comparable numbers elsewhere.

Nomar produced value around #10-#12 last season in only 470 ABs, yet to drops to #18 for '07.

Youkilis over Garko?

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:31 pm

I think the only thing with Morneau is that he hasn't proven it over time. He sure looked good last year though. He was one of my sleepers and really helped. I expected the power. Didn't expect the average. He really adjusted though and was willing to hit the opposite way if pitched that way. By the way I don't know how many hr's Howard will hit this year, but he has learned to do the same thing and can hit it out to left or right which keeps his average up and doesn't hurt his power #'s since he's strong enough to muscle it out the other way. Especially in that ball park.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:45 pm

Ryan Howard 2007 HR over/under.

I would put him at 45 ... Vander, anyone else ?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 1:41 pm

I had Howard at 49 homeruns for last season. You can laugh at that all you want and then go take a look at what he did. That in mind, I'd say he's good for 54.

As for Morneau, I think everyone thought he was capable of great numbers if he didn't come up lame with emphazema, the bird flu, arthritis, the clap, food poisoning, and a pinched testacle. I'm assming he's over all that now, but there is some anxiety regarding him. I had the first 6 guys exactly as they came up so I'm preaching as I practiced.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:26 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

I had Howard at 49 homeruns for last season. You can laugh at that all you want and then go take a look at what he did. That in mind, I'd say he's good for 54.

As for Morneau, I think everyone thought he was capable of great numbers if he didn't come up lame with emphazema, the bird flu, arthritis, the clap, food poisoning, and a pinched testacle. I'm assming he's over all that now, but there is some anxiety regarding him. I had the first 6 guys exactly as they came up so I'm preaching as I practiced. Man when I agree with Oakchunas twice in one message it is a sign of the second coming. I think Howard will put up similar numbers and the only way he does not is he gets Bonds treatment over a full season without Burrell protection- although likely Utley protects him.

Morneau IMO would have been a stud a year earlier- if not for the ticky tack stuff derailing him. There are no holes in his approach.

Also to comment on Helton if you would not pick Sean Casey in the first 10 rounds I cannot see why you would go Helton. Is he a starting 1b in this format who will help in batting avg, sure but not much else.

BTW I have Howard at 48 bombs in 07

[ November 30, 2006, 08:36 PM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Spartacus · Post by **Spartacus** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:42 pm

It seems like a pretty fair assessment for November rankings. No doubt, come September there will be some not on this top 20 list outperforming several on it. Who? Hell, if I was that prescient I wouldn't have drafted D Lee in the 1st. round last year for his durability! As for Helton being 10th on this list, that sounds about right also, and he may end up being a good value pick between the 7th and 9th round next year (he was drafted in the 7th round in current NFBC mock draft), particularly for one targeting BA. Note: Helton had a serious medical illness last year, lost a considerable amount of weight, and missed about 3 weeks in May. His power numbers remained depressed after his return. That being said, his powers numbers have been modest for a couple of years now. Quahog makes a good point about his back issues, although if that's the true cause of his declining production, I think a Don Mattingly comparison is most fitting.

As for Nomar at 18, we drafted him in the 8th round last year (I admit to a mild case of newbie-itis) which was higher than most league's but we targeted him for his versatility. Last year he qualified at SS, 3rd, and 1st, and we were thrilled to get 470 at bats out of him. I think as a SS he earned his keep and justified the pick in the 8th round. This year as a 1st baseman only, factoring in his propensity for injury, the 10th to 12th rd. sounds good to me, but as a corner option rather than a primary 1st baseman (which may explain the 18th ranking). What can I say? I've become a bit more cautious after our D.Lee experience last year. Not to mention Rich Harden, John Patterson, and Eddie Guardado........................Yes, very cautious! Mind you I'm not complaining (okay, maybe a little), after all despite the disasters listed above we did manage to finish 4th in LV 4. Within context, we felt like we won the Lotto jackpot!

Nice work gentlemen, looking forward to 2B.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:18 pm

If I had Howard I would be counting on 45 hr's too. So, I guess there's an equal chance of under or over. I think 290ish, 45 give or take, with a healthy amount of Runs and rbi. 0 sb's of course. Having said that it's not far off from what I expected of Tex last year and he fell short.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:33 am

On Howard, barring injury, I would expect a 10% to 15% decrease in HR in 2007. That would bring him to 49 to 52 HR.

19 different players have hit at least 40 HR in at least one of the last three years (nine in '04, eight in '05, and eleven in '06). Taking into account notable injuries that cannot be predicted (at least by me) with any effectiveness, I pulled the substandard declines by Bonds and Thome ('04 to '05) and D. Lee ('05 to '06). For the remainders, the overall decline by 40+ power hitters in their next year was 15.5% ('04 to '05) and 9.3% ('04 to '05).

Not exact science, but in general, the year after that great event of hitting at least 40 HR, there is a decline in HR power.

FYI, three guys hit 40+ in each of the three years and only one increased year over year...Big Papi David Ortiz. Dunn and Pujols were the other two.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 5:25 am

helton at 10 could represent a good value play. he's still in coors last time i checked

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 7:04 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

helton at 10 could represent a good value play. he's still in coors last time i checked as he was in 06. 15hr and 81rbis are ty wigginton #'s. But he is 33, too soon to flame out. Unless he has Donnie Baseballs back

Q

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 7:17 am

Or Barry's hormone salesman.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 7:37 am

Maybe the Rockies will stop using the humidor. If it was a humidor. I am beginning to believe they were actually soaking the baseballs in a vat of luke warm Coors Light (which is cheap and available because nobody will drink it)!

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 8:44 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Maybe the Rockies will stop using the humidor. If it was a humidor. I am beginning to believe they were actually soaking the baseballs in a vat of luke warm Coors Light (which is cheap and available because nobody will drink it)! best theory I've heard yet !! that stuff is undrinkable for anyone with taste buds that have evolved beyond McNuggets and Taco Bell burritos

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 8:55 am

In Colorado a lot of us get a chuckle when a National columnist makes a big deal of the humidors. I don't know whether its global warming or just a change in weather patterns but Colorado has experienced something that we're not used to the last two years...humidity.

Locals have noticed that things are a little different than a couple of years ago. Our golf drives don't seem to stay in the air forever like they used to, some of our slo-pitch softball fences are at 375-400 feet and home runs don't happen like they used to.

It should be interesting if things get back to normal this year and we are virtually humidity free. Until then, the jury is still out on the humidor.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 8:56 am

Howie Kendrick also qualifies at first base this year, along with Victor Martinez. Those two would probably make the Top 20 at this spot, right? Where would you rank them?

No love for Ryan Shealy after his strong finish with the Royals? He's an interesting prospect who could make the Top 20, too. Nobody had him on their lists. Thoughts?

As you can tell, I'm doing rankings and ratings of first basemen for our first magazine!!

I love doing this!!! Eighteen straight years and it never gets old.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 8:58 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Maybe the Rockies will stop using the humidor. If it was a humidor. I am beginning to believe they were actually soaking the baseballs in a vat of luke warm Coors Light (which is cheap and available because nobody will drink it)! best theory I've heard yet !! that stuff is undrinkable for anyone with taste buds that have evolved beyond McNuggets and Taco Bell burritos [/QUOTE]I used to like Coors light (it quenched my thirst) and used to LOVE mcnuggets (the 20 pack was good eatin) but I'm still quite partial to the TACObell burrito - plus now it's trans-fat free it can be considered a health food right ??? even better !

Q

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 9:06 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Howie Kendrick also qualifies at first base this year, along with Victor Martinez. Those two would probably make the Top 20 at this spot, right? Where would you rank them?

No love for Ryan Shealy after his strong finish with the Royals? He's an interesting prospect who could make the Top 20, too. Nobody had him on their lists. Thoughts?

As you can tell, I'm doing rankings and ratings of first basemen for our first magazine!!

I love doing this!!! Eighteen straight years and it never gets old.

What are you doing with Derrek Lee, Greg?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 9:13 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Howie Kendrick also qualifies at first base this year, along with Victor Martinez. Those two would probably make the Top 20 at this spot, right? Where would you rank them?

No love for Ryan Shealy after his strong finish with the Royals? He's an interesting prospect who could make the Top 20, too. Nobody had him on their lists. Thoughts?

As you can tell, I'm doing rankings and ratings of first basemen for our first magazine!!

I love doing this!!! Eighteen straight years and it never gets old.

Take away the catcher premium, and as a 1B only Martinez doens't make my top 20. Likewise, take away the 2b premium from Kendrick and he's right there on the bubble with Conor Jackson.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 9:25 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Howie Kendrick also qualifies at first base this year, along with Victor Martinez. Those two would probably make the Top 20 at this spot, right? Where would you rank them?

No love for Ryan Shealy after his strong finish with the Royals? He's an interesting prospect who could make the Top 20, too. Nobody had him on their lists. Thoughts?

As you can tell, I'm doing rankings and ratings of first basemen for our first magazine!!

I love doing this!!! Eighteen straight years and it never gets old.

What are you doing with Derrek Lee, Greg? [/QUOTE]If you look at his numbers before he got hurt and in August when he was healthy, they are pretty impressive. I'm not sure where to put him just yet, but he's a $30+ hitter who should go either 4th, 5th or 6th among all first basemen and Top 25 overall. Still working on all the numbers, but as long as the wrist is healthy there shouldn't be a concern with him.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 9:27 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Howie Kendrick also qualifies at first base this year, along with Victor Martinez. Those two would probably make the Top 20 at this spot, right? Where would you rank them?

No love for Ryan Shealy after his strong finish with the Royals? He's an interesting prospect who could make the Top 20, too. Nobody had him on their lists. Thoughts?

As you can tell, I'm doing rankings and ratings of first basemen for our first magazine!!

I love doing this!!! Eighteen straight years and it never gets old.

Take away the catcher premium, and as a 1B only Martinez doens't make my top 20. Likewise, take away the 2b premium from Kendrick and he's right there on the bubble with Conor Jackson. [/QUOTE]Correct, but with both premiums these guys go ahead of many Top 10 first basemen in the draft, which is how I rank them overall. Actually, you'd take Martinez as a first baseman ahead of Youkilis and Swisher, I'm sure.

Dirt Dogs · Post by **Dirt Dogs** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 9:47 am

YOUK!!!!

Love seeing him in the top 20. And why not with improved table setters and he shouldnt be hitting leadoff this year means more RBI opportunities and protection.

YOUUUUUUUUUUK!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 9:48 am

Originally posted by RedSox Nation 2:

YOUK!!!!

Love seeing him in the top 20. And why not with improved table setters and he shouldnt be hitting leadoff this year means more RBI opportunities and protection.

YOUUUUUUUUUUK! EXACTLY!!

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Dec 01, 2006 9:59 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Correct, but with both premiums these guys go ahead of many Top 10 first basemen in the draft, which is how I rank them overall. Actually, you'd take Martinez as a first baseman ahead of Youkilis and Swisher, I'm sure. what premiums? that they qualify at a lesser position ? It's a premium if they have dual positioning in more equal positions (ie ss-2b / of-1b). If you are using V.Mart at 1b then you are doing a POOR job of maximizing your lineup. V Mart as a 1b shouldnt even be considered for 1b lists. Then again your mag circulation kind of dwarfs mine

Q