The 75% Solution

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sat Dec 09, 2006 7:04 am

Just received my 2007 Baseball Forecaster courtesy the Early Bird Special from Shandler Enterprises (thanks Ron!). On page 44 of the new book, there is an article entitled "The 75% Solution" which discusses optimal league penetration -- that is, the percentage of the major league player pool that is drafted onto a fantasy league's rosters. One paragraph in particular caught my eye:

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15-team mixed league (NFBC format)

The National Fantasy Baseball Championship runs 15-team mixed leagues with 30-man rosters (23 active, 7 reserve). That's a 60% penetration. While many of its participants probably think that goes deep enough, the reality is that each owner has to sift through at least 300 free agents every transaction period. These leagues can dig down to 75% without affecting too much. Adding threee teams gets the percentage up to 72%. Increasing roster size to 37 gets the percentage up to 75%. A hybrid -- 16 teams with 35-man rosters -- would be another alternative.

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I was wondering whether anyone else agrees with this notion of a 75% penetration rate. It seems to devalue free agency, and probably overemphasizes the draft. In short, despite the author's claims, our current 60% rate is probably a good thing.

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Sat Dec 09, 2006 8:13 am

Wow, you've already received your Forecaster?! Hmmm...I should be extra nice to my wife since mine will be coming soon, and I'll need some brownie points in reserve.

My observation so far is that deeper leagues make luck more of a factor, since you really can't build contingencies for injuries, speculate on callups, etc. I've always felt like I had much more control over my own destiny in a league like the NFBC than in NL-only leagues I've played in.

Also, if you look at starters only, the NFBC has 83% penetration of hitters and about 75-80% penetration of starting pitchers. That seems about right -- when someone gets hurt or loses their job, you have starting alternatives on the waiver wire, even though those starters are usually scrubs like Angel Berroa or Brad Ausmus.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sat Dec 09, 2006 8:25 am

Though it doesn't specifically mention it, the 75% "solution" is probably intended for leagues that feature trading. In the NFBC, without meaningful free agent pickups AND no trading, the season would be kind of boring.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Dec 09, 2006 8:29 am

Although some of you enjoy AL and NL only leagues, I don't like the notion that the skill most rewarded in order to win is finding guys who will get steady playing time. One of the most frustrating things every year is drafting around all the platoon situations and the spring training 'battles.' Under the current format the 'penetration rate' (Why does everything Shandler writes sound sexually frustrated?) of regulars is probably around 75% already if not higher. That rewards finding the best players rather than the mosy regular players.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sat Dec 09, 2006 8:38 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

the 'penetration rate' (Why does everything Shandler writes sound sexually frustrated?) Classic -- be sure to ask him about it when he does a message board Q&A sometime this offseason.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sat Dec 09, 2006 9:11 am

No way should KOQ get his Forecaster before me!

That's just not right!

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sat Dec 09, 2006 9:20 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

No way should KOQ get his Forecaster before me!

That's just not right! Your Forecaster arriving late probably has something to do with the NFBC's "penetration rate" not being up to snuff.

18-man leagues!! Shandler's getting batty in his old age.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sat Dec 09, 2006 9:46 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

No way should KOQ get his Forecaster before me!

That's just not right! Your Forecaster arriving late probably has something to do with the NFBC's "penetration rate" not being up to snuff.

18-man leagues!! Shandler's getting batty in his old age. [/QUOTE]He definitely didn't write that himself!!

Trust me on that.

Agreed, in a no-trade league you couldn't have 75 percent penetration. I once thought about a 16-team league when I was designing the NFBC, then almost went to 14, but I'm glad we're at 15. That feels about right with no trades and 30-man rosters.