Overthinking FAAB

[Deadheadz]

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I'm in just 2 leagues with FAAB since I suck at it so much and not because it takes too much of my time.

In the one league I have no players in need of replacing but in the other there are a couple. My need is for OF and one player that I want to drop is Javier Baez. It's a 15 team league with 7 man bench and most of the other bench players are decent pitchers or setup men likely to take over as closer.

Baez, he's a stash for most but I'm really considering dropping him for a Judy type OF because that's where my biggest holes are in the projections Runs and SB. But how do I drop Baez? Some say he will be gone for months probably but more optimistic folks think he could come up as soon as Castro is dealt and that could happen anytime.

My reasoning includes the idea that throwing out Baez this early will cause a bidding war next weekend where someone is bound to drain their FAAB budget to the tune of at least $200, or so I'd like to believe. Also the winning bidder would have Baez clogging his bench as a stash rather than me clogging mine.

But I can't get over the idea of releasing a player with top 200 ADP in a pool of 450.


I welcome your opinions.


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[Wolfpac]

He can't make contact consistently, nothing to see please feel free to move on....

[jariax]

If the draft was held today, he would not be a top 200 pick. Maybe not top 500.
The poor spring training combined with being dropped to AAA seriously reduce his value.

Where you drafted him, shouldn't really affect your decision as to whether or not to drop him.

[COZ]

If the draft was held today, he would not be a top 200 pick. Maybe not top 500.
The poor spring training combined with being dropped to AAA seriously reduce his value.

Where you drafted him, shouldn't really affect your decision as to whether or not to drop him.

Bingo. This is a very interesting topic to me, being from Chicago and a Cub fan, and it is hotly debated on the Cubs blogs, of which I follow fairly closely. The intelligent fan-base is pretty evenly split, some wanting to trade him once his trade value is increased, some fearing he will be a Middle Infielder with Gary Sheffield bat speed and power. One difference, in my opinion, Sheffield had great plate discipline and didn't strike out anywhere close to Javy's 40% strikeout rate. I am in the trade him camp (but only when his trade value is increased). I was shocked by how high he was going in the DC's and then through Draft Weekend I was surprised he was even being drafted. I follow the Cubs closely and feel the hand-writing was on the wall when the Cubs traded for Tommy LaStella. He has too much swing & miss and doesn't walk enough for Jed & Theo. And remember, he was drafted under the Jim Hendry regime. I hope the Cubs trade him to Philly for Cole Hamels because Rueben Amaro is probably the only GM dumb enough to trade for him. While he would likely have tremendous fantasy value other than BA with his power/speed combo, I see Addisson Russell up before Javy and I am calling bust on Javy. As a Cubs fan, I hope I'm wrong.

COZ

[Spectre]

Baez is the definition of a sunk cost at this point. His original cost to you might make you feel regret but it's irrelevant to your roster decision.

He's not in the majors, he can't make enough contact to stay up and it's unknown if his issues are even correctable. He's been whiffing like a monster through the end of last year into winter ball and now ST. Are Benoit owners having trouble dumping him because he went around ADP 140? You shouldn't either. Circumstances change... unless you feel like he'll rebound with some instruction (in which case, hold onto him), cutting bait makes a lot of sense.