Where Will Alex Rodriguez Land On Draft Day?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 7:43 am

For the first time since the 1998 draft, Alex Rodriguez isn't a consensus first or second overall pick and it's interesting to see him being bypassed by other young infielders in off-season mock drafts. On Wednesday night in our NFBC Champions League draft, A-Rod went fourth overall, but you can certainly see a scenario where he could fall out of the Top 5 (Soriano and Howard were drafted after him on Wednesday) this year.

Here's the question: Where do you think A-Rod will land this year in NFBC leagues? Will he provide good value there or will his skills decline this year? And what's the lowest you think he could go in an NFBC draft?

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 7:54 am

1) I think in most 2007 NFBC drafts he goes in the middle of the first round (leave the NY drafts out of the analysis LOL)

2) I think he will offer some value if he slides as I think he will improve on last year's numbers

3) I could see him slipping to 1-11

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 8:14 am

I took him 4th and I will tell you my theory.

First off if Reyes was there I probably would have taken him.

Arod vs Soriano my only question is who is more likely to produce 06 numbers again? Arod owners are spoiled and right now if I could lock in his numbers from 06 for 07 I would do it and feel justified going for him at 4.

Arod vs Howard was the harder debate- 2 reasons made me prefer Arod both involved the slot I was picking from. 1) I thought speed not named Figgins or Pierre in early round 3 would be hard to find and those were 2 guys I did not want a top 35 pick on so those 12-20 bags he will steal in 07 will be quite handy. 2) I thought Morneau or Konerko would probably be there in round 3 and I did not and never want to grab 2 1b with my first 3 picks and handcuff me later to having to relegate a sleeper 1b or 2 automatically to utility.

To me the debate is not about anything in the top 6 in 07- I would not think anyone was foolish for picking any of them in any spot. 7-13 in the first round are the interesting spots to me.

One more Arod thought- he is quite possibly only one Jeter 15 Day DL slot away from getting SS eligiblity in any season. Long shot but razor thin differences in some of those top guys to me.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 8:14 am

[ December 14, 2006, 02:14 PM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 8:37 am

I have been throwing this issue back and forth as to where to pick him, if he is there. I do not consider him all that more valuable than Wright, Cabrera or Ramirez, he is not as dominant as he once was and the 3 other 3B are a few years younger. Playing in NY has taken his toll on him. Wright and Cabrera are being picked 10-15 and Ramirez is in the 2nd round. What makes ARod better than any of them to justify picking him any earlier, unless he gets SS eligibility

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 8:50 am

Originally posted by Bobby J:

I have been throwing this issue back and forth as to where to pick him, if he is there. I do not consider him all that more valuable than Wright, Cabrera or Ramirez, he is not as dominant as he once was and the 3 other 3B are a few years younger. Playing in NY has taken his toll on him. Wright and Cabrera are being picked 10-15 and Ramirez is in the 2nd round. What makes ARod better than any of them to justify picking him any earlier, unless he gets SS eligibility Good debate- it what many consider a down year. Here is his ranks at his position in the 5 categories.

1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd (by 3 homeruns total), and 7th.

I will bet against Glaus and Aram outhomering him again and Atkins beating him in runs scored in 07.

Wright's 2nd half should scare folks just as much as Arod's down year or issues in NY.

Mr Dalrae · Post by **Mr Dalrae** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 9:36 am

The concerns I have about AROD are 1)If he goes into a slump or makes more than a few errors how will he respond this year from the immense pressure from the fans,media and his own teammates.2)Where does he bat in the batting order? 3rd,4th,5th? and does Torre do what he did in the playoffs last year if AROD is in a slump and decides to drop him even lower in the order? So Chest to answer the question right now I have AROD rated 4th overall and dropping no lower than 6th by draft day.

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 5:06 pm

Anywhere from 1st thru 8th pick overall wouldn't surprise me. There's no wrong answer within that range. He'll most commonly go somewhere between picks 2-6. Anything past 8th is a mistake in my opinion. 2006 is his downside, pretty impressive. Contact % has slowly declined from 80% to 76% the last 5 years, but, that's not enough to be concerned about....yet. He's a solid #1 pick anywhere you take him and a nice cornerstone for any fantasy team.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 8:13 pm

I think his high/low NFBC draft will be 2nd/7th. ADP will be either 4th or 5th depending on his Spring.

What will he be worth? somewhere between 4th and 14th --- my forecast says he'll be the 7th most valuable fantasy player at the end of the season, but still the clear #1 third baseman.