Time and Winning

[EliGrimmett]

Since this is the toughest fantasy baseball competition in the world to win I was wondering how much time the winners actually spent on winning. Or, more precisely, on preparing for the draft.



I know most of the people on this board never seem to stop preparing, but what about the 22 league champions in 2006? I'm asking because I'm wondering how much luck is really involved and how much we can raise our expected winning percentage by preparing more than our opponents.



If everyone in each league drafted based on nothingness then each opponent would have a 6.67% chance of winning his league and a .28% chance of winning the overall. Does all this prep work raise our expected winning percentage within our league to 7% or 15%? What about the overall - maybe .5% or even 1% or more?



Is there a limit to how much prep work will warrant any kind of benefit - are we just beating our heads against a wall after a certain point? Could someone who prepares the day before the draft have a nearly equal shot as the rest of his opponents at winning his league or the overall or would he certainly be doomed to failure?



I'm also asking because I spend way to much time on preparing (according to loved ones who would rather shop than watch baseball) and was wondering what everyone else thought on the subject.

[Quahogs]

"A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Closing. Always be closing, always be closing."



~Blake. Glengarry Glen Ross



Q

[Vander]

I prepare 365 and attribute my success in 2006 to being better prepared than ever before. i'm ahead of schedule this year, so I'm hopeful about 2007. If it makes you feel better my wife thinks the same thing. Kids probably too.

[bjoak]

Well, it really depends how you spend your time. For example, if you spend 1000 hours/year evaluating hitters incorrectly, you would really be better off not preparing at all and drafting out of a magazine.



I say that to be funny, but it's true when you think about it.



That said, assuming you are doing very useful prep, I think it has to take a large amount of prep time to truly prepare well for a high level competition. T o some degree I discount the two sport guys because it seems impossible to prepare that well when half of the year you are focused on something else. Obviously some people manage to do it with success, but it can't be easy with another full time job.



My other thought is that some years it will take a much greater amount of time. Last year I created my drafting software and my pitcher evaluation program, and though I will need to tweak those things every year based on new results, the amount of time I spend will be lessened to a great degree. Last year, I estimate I spent about 400 hours on activities directly related to the draft (as opposed to reading baseball articles, watching games, etc.). This year will be considerably less.

[King of Queens]

Two words: START NOW