Let's get rid of Wins as a Stats Category

[Rainiers]

I've been against change in most things with this great game that Greg, Tom and the rest of the wonderful folks at Stats Inc host for us. If it ain't broke don't fix it. Keep it Simple Stupid. Streaming? Don't even sniff it. The new FAAB page? Well, I'll give it another try. Friday pitching changes? Ok, as long as you keep daily decision making and loopholes out of it.

But here is one major change I'd be all over. Getting rid of Wins as a counting category. It's a category that for me makes no sense. So much luck involved, so removed from a particular pitchers skill set. So unpredictable. Frankly, so lucky.

This year in the Auction Championship, I'm like leading everybody in wins. 38 wins and counting. It's just raining down wins. I can have a pitcher go 5 innings and give up six runs and get a win. A reliever goes a third of an inning and gets the win. A starting pitcher comes in on his OFF day and gets a win in relief. I hiccup and get a win. I fart and get a win. It's just wins wins everywhere and just doesn't seem right.

Tuesday night, Fernando Rodney gave up 3 hits, a walk, three earned runs, blew a save. And got a win. Give me a break.

I've been on the flip side of this equation. Had great teams and can't buy a win. Have had pitchers go nine innings, not give up a run, and not get the win. Rain outs. Blown saves. Etc.

The problem with Wins is that it that is a secondary stat heavily is influenced by others and luck. It does not truly reflect the efforts and the skill of the pitcher himself.

Maybe we should replace Wins with any other stat that is more reflective of good pitching.

Just laying it out there in case others think the same way...

[Navel Lint]

This year in the Auction Championship, I'm like leading everybody in wins. 38 wins and counting. It's just raining down wins. I can have a pitcher go 5 innings and give up six runs and get a win. A reliever goes a third of an inning and gets the win. A starting pitcher comes in on his OFF day and gets a win in relief. I hiccup and get a win. I fart and get a win. It's just wins wins everywhere and just doesn't seem right.

It's ok to know it.
It's ok to think it.
It's even ok to type it out.
But once you hit the send button, you have angered the fantasy Gods.
38 wins now.............43 wins at the All Star break

As for the Wins category.
Quality Starts has been mentioned in the past as a replacement for WINS.

I have some 2014 numbers. I don't want to interpret what they mean, I'll just post the data.

Last season there were 2430 regular season games.
We had 4860 Starts by pitchers.

236 different Starting Pitchers received a WIN for the game they started.
Starting Pitchers received a WIN 1706 times in 4860 chances. 35.1% of the time.

235 different Starting Pitchers earned a Quality Start for the game they started.
Starting Pitchers earned a QS 2623 times in 4860 chances. 53.97% of the time.

[Atlas]

I've been against change in most things with this great game that Greg, Tom and the rest of the wonderful folks at Stats Inc host for us. If it ain't broke don't fix it. Keep it Simple Stupid. Streaming? Don't even sniff it. The new FAAB page? Well, I'll give it another try. Friday pitching changes? Ok, as long as you keep daily decision making and loopholes out of it.

But here is one major change I'd be all over. Getting rid of Wins as a counting category. It's a category that for me makes no sense. So much luck involved, so removed from a particular pitchers skill set. So unpredictable. Frankly, so lucky.

This year in the Auction Championship, I'm like leading everybody in wins. 38 wins and counting. It's just raining down wins. I can have a pitcher go 5 innings and give up six runs and get a win. A reliever goes a third of an inning and gets the win. A starting pitcher comes in on his OFF day and gets a win in relief. I hiccup and get a win. I fart and get a win. It's just wins wins everywhere and just doesn't seem right.

Tuesday night, Fernando Rodney gave up 3 hits, a walk, three earned runs, blew a save. And got a win. Give me a break.

I've been on the flip side of this equation. Had great teams and can't buy a win. Have had pitchers go nine innings, not give up a run, and not get the win. Rain outs. Blown saves. Etc.

The problem with Wins is that it that is a secondary stat heavily is influenced by others and luck. It does not truly reflect the efforts and the skill of the pitcher himself.

Maybe we should replace Wins with any other stat that is more reflective of good pitching.

Just laying it out there in case others think the same way...

I think wins is sorta like marriage
-can't figure it out
-success seems fairly random
-looks like its here to stay

[TOXIC ASSETS]

Don't even think about it. YES - wins can be influenced by luck. As can other categories.

How about this one.
2/3 IP
2 H
1 HR
2 ER
And a save earned because the pitcher entered game with a 3 run lead.

How about this one for scoring a run.
Guy walks.
Sacrificed over to 2nd base.
Takes 3rd on a groundout.
Scores when pitcher throws a wild pitch.

Bottom line is that these type of situations will even out in the long run just like wins will.

[Yah Mule]

We've all suffered through seasons when our ace pitches as well as ever, but only wins 12 games all year. And we've also had the guy with barely playable peripherals who manages to win 17. Just part of the game, but it can be frustrating.

Many seasons ago, I owned Tim Hudson and I watched Billy Koch come in to blow the save and vulture the win from him multiple times. The guy I was battling in my roto league owned Koch. It was hard to be philosophical in that instance.

[GetALife]

Can we just get rid of all categories and start over with ten new ones?

[mattjb]

Can we just get rid of all categories and start over with ten new ones?

Good call. I suggest Days on DL and Home Runs on bench. What else we got?

[Edwards Kings]

Can we just get rid of all categories and start over with ten new ones?

Good call. I suggest Days on DL and Home Runs on bench. What else we got?

1) Base on balls - Batters

[Atlas]

Can we just get rid of all categories and start over with ten new ones?

Good call. I suggest Days on DL and Home Runs on bench. What else we got?

How about "Number of Times DL'd after Lineups are Locked"

[Driver Love]

I am usually all for trying to streamline the fantasy game to remove random luck from the equation. The problem is we can eventually get to a point that the game is too black and white... and we get to the point that we just draft teams and crown winners and losers based on who is projected to be the winner.

I have DeGrom who had a great game blown for him last night. I have Smardjzia who pitched great today and his bullpen blew the win. Even though those things irritated me the fun that can be had when rooting for your pitcher to get a win is part of the fun of the game. I also have Cole from Pittsburgh and he got a fortunate win today when his team scored 5 runs in the 7th to give him a win.

The point I am making is I think wins , though there is luck involved, are a big part of real baseball and should be a big part of fantasy baseball. Drafting SP's with good offenses is part of the strategy hoping to get wins. Just my two cents.

[GetALife]

I am usually all for trying to streamline the fantasy game to remove random luck from the equation. The problem is we can eventually get to a point that the game is too black and white... and we get to the point that we just draft teams and crown winners and losers based on who is projected to be the winner.

I have DeGrom who had a great game blown for him last night. I have Smardjzia who pitched great today and his bullpen blew the win. Even though those things irritated me the fun that can be had when rooting for your pitcher to get a win is part of the fun of the game. I also have Cole from Pittsburgh and he got a fortunate win today when his team scored 5 runs in the 7th to give him a win.

The point I am making is I think wins , though there is luck involved, are a big part of real baseball and should be a big part of fantasy baseball. Drafting SP's with good offenses is part of the strategy hoping to get wins. Just my two cents.

Surely, if you have a starter on Oakland or Philadelphia so far you probably aren't going to have many wins. Coming into the season Philadelphia was sort of expected to lose.....while Oakland was expected to win. There are pitchers on teams with good winning records that have few wins, and pitchers on losing teams that have lots of wins (i.e. Sonny Gray). I'm sure there is some certain luck involved, but should a category be eliminated because of the "intangibles" that occur in every game?

[Rainiers]

I am usually all for trying to streamline the fantasy game to remove random luck from the equation. The problem is we can eventually get to a point that the game is too black and white... and we get to the point that we just draft teams and crown winners and losers based on who is projected to be the winner.

I have DeGrom who had a great game blown for him last night. I have Smardjzia who pitched great today and his bullpen blew the win. Even though those things irritated me the fun that can be had when rooting for your pitcher to get a win is part of the fun of the game. I also have Cole from Pittsburgh and he got a fortunate win today when his team scored 5 runs in the 7th to give him a win.

The point I am making is I think wins , though there is luck involved, are a big part of real baseball and should be a big part of fantasy baseball. Drafting SP's with good offenses is part of the strategy hoping to get wins. Just my two cents.

You are spot on as I think about it. Cheering for a win is great in this game as well as in the real game. Well said.
.
But how about getting rid of the stupid "blown save results in a win" win. Disregard wins that are accompanied by a blown save. If that is too hard to program, make the category Wins minus Blown Saves. Call it the Rodney rule. We could cheer for wins, but stop rewarding failure.

[Rainiers]

It's ok to know it.
It's ok to think it.
It's even ok to type it out.
But once you hit the send button, you have angered the fantasy Gods.
38 wins now.............43 wins at the All Star break

Lol

Ironically I had the same thought as I typed it. I decided to include it just to make the point that I thought certain Wins are too subjective and "lucky", and that it was not just sour grapes on my part, bitching about my recent string of bad luck, etc...and that the rule could use some tweaking.

but the fantasy Gods have a will of there own, and cannot be appeased no matter what we do...

[Rainiers]

Can we just get rid of all categories and start over with ten new ones?

Good call. I suggest Days on DL and Home Runs on bench. What else we got?

1) Base on balls - Batters

Home Runs - Pitchers

[Driver Love]

I am usually all for trying to streamline the fantasy game to remove random luck from the equation. The problem is we can eventually get to a point that the game is too black and white... and we get to the point that we just draft teams and crown winners and losers based on who is projected to be the winner.

I have DeGrom who had a great game blown for him last night. I have Smardjzia who pitched great today and his bullpen blew the win. Even though those things irritated me the fun that can be had when rooting for your pitcher to get a win is part of the fun of the game. I also have Cole from Pittsburgh and he got a fortunate win today when his team scored 5 runs in the 7th to give him a win.

The point I am making is I think wins , though there is luck involved, are a big part of real baseball and should be a big part of fantasy baseball. Drafting SP's with good offenses is part of the strategy hoping to get wins. Just my two cents.

Surely, if you have a starter on Oakland or Philadelphia so far you probably aren't going to have many wins. Coming into the season Philadelphia was sort of expected to lose.....while Oakland was expected to win. There are pitchers on teams with good winning records that have few wins, and pitchers on losing teams that have lots of wins (i.e. Sonny Gray). I'm sure there is some certain luck involved, but should a category be eliminated because of the "intangibles" that occur in every game?

I certainly didn't say pitchers on better teams are guaranteed wins. I am the one NOT advocating eliminating the category. Lets be honest, one of the first things we as fantasy players do is check to see if OUR starting pitchers are pitching on any given day.. then, when dragged with wife and kids to watch a painful parade, the only thing that makes us feel alive is repeatedly peaking at our phone to see if we are going to get a good start, some K's and a win... as I am typing this Jiminez coughs up a 4-1 7th inning lead and blows the win and ruins my night... It is part of the game and the highs and lows of it are what make it fun.

[Driver Love]

I am usually all for trying to streamline the fantasy game to remove random luck from the equation. The problem is we can eventually get to a point that the game is too black and white... and we get to the point that we just draft teams and crown winners and losers based on who is projected to be the winner.

I have DeGrom who had a great game blown for him last night. I have Smardjzia who pitched great today and his bullpen blew the win. Even though those things irritated me the fun that can be had when rooting for your pitcher to get a win is part of the fun of the game. I also have Cole from Pittsburgh and he got a fortunate win today when his team scored 5 runs in the 7th to give him a win.

The point I am making is I think wins , though there is luck involved, are a big part of real baseball and should be a big part of fantasy baseball. Drafting SP's with good offenses is part of the strategy hoping to get wins. Just my two cents.

You are spot on as I think about it. Cheering for a win is great in this game as well as in the real game. Well said.
.
But how about getting rid of the stupid "blown save results in a win" win. Disregard wins that are accompanied by a blown save. If that is too hard to program, make the category Wins minus Blown Saves. Call it the Rodney rule. We could cheer for wins, but stop rewarding failure.

I agree.. The one thing I really dislike is how a closer can blow a game and then get the win when his team bails him out... If there was a way around this, I would like it.

[BK METS]

Don't even think about it. YES - wins can be influenced by luck. As can other categories.

How about this one.
2/3 IP
2 H
1 HR
2 ER
And a save earned because the pitcher entered game with a 3 run lead.

This has nothing to do with the subject of this thread, but I thought the pitcher would have to pitch one full inning or the tying run would have to be on deck, in order to get a save with a 3-run lead. If he gave up 2 runs of his own, wouldn't the game be tied, if the tying run were on deck? Curious if this is a real scenario and how it happened.

[COZ]

Yeah. And while we're at it let's eliminate Batting Average & ERA. I mean the flukiness of BABIP is so annoying. We need to adopt a statistic that is more a pure refletion of a guy's "true" skills like xBA, xERA or FIP. Otherwise we are not recongizing true skill, but having a game of statistics based on "noise." Also, I'm thinking this new "exit velocity" stat should replace HR's. I mean that really measures how hard a guy really hit the ball instead we have to deal with the randomness of park factors, wind, weather, etc. How fair is that? My player absolutely crushes the ball but the wind is blowing in or it is a cavernous ballpark and it is nothing more than a fly out to the warning track. And stolen bases? Please. This does not accurately reflect a guy's true speed, I mean you have pitchers like Lester that can't hold shit and whose Grandmother's would run wild on. And Catcher release times. With this new Statcast, we should just allow a certain allowable release time for catchers, calculate the runners speed less an allowable catcher "pop" time and determine if he truly "deserved" that stolen base. And RBI's...total randomness...so dependent on the players and team around him. I can't think of a more random, team-dependent stat. And yet we continue to measure that as if it's meaningful of any true skill. In fact, why do we even bother with all the games...the injuries, weather, manager's decisions, umpires, etc.?!!?? All these things conspire against showing my player's true skills. Let's just have a draft and run simulations how things "should" have gone based on a guy's TRUE skills. We will have instaneous feedback and a more PURE result. The season and the games are just meaningless NOISE that conspire against showing true skill. Why we continue to award prizes based on such randomness is beyond me???

COZ

[Rainiers]

Yeah. And while we're at it let's eliminate Batting Average & ERA. I mean the flukiness of BABIP is so annoying. We need to adopt a statistic that is more a pure refletion of a guy's "true" skills like xBA, xERA or FIP. Otherwise we are not recongizing true skill, but having a game of statistics based on "noise." Also, I'm thinking this new "exit velocity" stat should replace HR's. I mean that really measures how hard a guy really hit the ball instead we have to deal with the randomness of park factors, wind, weather, etc. How fair is that? My player absolutely crushes the ball but the wind is blowing in or it is a cavernous ballpark and it is nothing more than a fly out to the warning track. And stolen bases? Please. This does not accurately reflect a guy's true speed, I mean you have pitchers like Lester that can't hold shit and whose Grandmother's would run wild on. And Catcher release times. With this new Statcast, we should just allow a certain allowable release time for catchers, calculate the runners speed less an allowable catcher "pop" time and determine if he truly "deserved" that stolen base. And RBI's...total randomness...so dependent on the players and team around him. I can't think of a more random, team-dependent stat. And yet we continue to measure that as if it's meaningful of any true skill. In fact, why do we even bother with all the games...the injuries, weather, manager's decisions, umpires, etc.?!!?? All these things conspire against showing my player's true skills. Let's just have a draft and run simulations how things "should" have gone based on a guy's TRUE skills. We will have instaneous feedback and a more PURE result. The season and the games are just meaningless NOISE that conspire against showing true skill. Why we continue to award prizes based on such randomness is beyond me???
COZ

Finally. Someone who gets it!

[Deadheadz]

.

I understand Wins are really a team stat and not necessarily the best measure of the quality of a pitcher. But our game balances the high value of the SP who pitches several innings and can't get a Save when they start a game, against the volatile and otherwise low impact of the (usually) 1-inning-per-appearance closer.

Without this balance too much value is placed on the SP and with a limited number of elite starters the pitching side of the game comes down to who got to pick the SPs who stayed healthy the longest.

The Win gives a manager who didn't draft great pitching or lost his great pitching due to injury the opportunity to still compete in that category by rostering long relievers, setup men or closers rather than damaging his ratio categories by being forced to activate guys like Aaron Harang, Eric Stults, and John Danks in hopes of getting counting stats in a category like QS.

Leagues with QS, Holds, Saves+Holds, etc are fine for those who want them and all join up agreeing to give preference to such stats. But tampering with the traditional 5x5 balance (yes I remember the 'original' Rotisserie had 4x4) is like drawing a moustache on the Mona Lisa.

As it stands now, our game gives flexibility in how you can gain points in the Win category. Most choose to draft elite SPs in order to get their Wins. Aren't many of you the same managers who want flexibility in other aspects of the rules, including setting your rosters?

It seems like those who want to use QS instead of W are after an easier path to dominating the category and are willing to accept that if their pitchers get injured they have no hope. Maybe I'm wrong but it seems like using QS would 'simplify' the pitching half of the game too much.

Not easier. Simpler.


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