How important is age as a factor in drafting?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 5:33 am

In my opinion it is EXTREMELY overrated. It seems that most of the fantasy players on this board think that if a guy is over 38 then he's automatically a "huge risk". There are so many examples of players who have had great years even though they are older.

How smart are ya if you spent the last 5 years skipping Randy Johnson and Clemens simply because of their age?

Clemens, RJ, Schilling, Smoltz, Kent, Hoffman, and a host of older players will continuously outperform your predictions for the 24 and under crowd. Older players simply are more predictable than first and second year players yet they are usually skipped in the draft for unproven talent.

Hype is one reason, shortsightedness and lack or preparation and research is another.

You don't have to follow the dog, but please don't follow the crowd.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 6:27 am

I am going to try and answer this with no smart a** in me.

When you play 10-12 leagues with trades which you have- you can afford some more injury risk/sudden decline risk. Change that to 15 teams with no trades and it is a horse of a different color.

Jeff Kent gets hurt in your home league in early June- you have Jose Lopez, maybe a Mark Loretta to choose from. This league you either have a lesser guy stashed away or welcome to Brandon Fahey or maybe a Willy Aybar type. Your next answer may be one of 2 things for this example. 1) What about an Uggla or a Brandon Phillips- well Uggla was drafted in most leagues, and Phillips would have cost you 15- 20% of your FAAB a month before- not a bad investment when it pays off. 2) I am so smart I will stash a prospect like Howie Kendrick that only I know about come on welcome to the big leagues of fantasy baseball.

I knew I needed to adjust to 15 teams when I joined the nfbc- the adjustment that was bigger than I realized was going from my traditional 25 man rosters to 30.

Before you wrote that post did you ever think maybe there is a reason why we all play that way other than we are just a bunch of followers and you have wisdom and insight that are just beyond us?

I look forward to your this is why I am so wise response, or you always pick on me Chest. 2 thoughts to that:

1) reread the posts pretty much everyone abuses you- I just do get to you more.

2) You have NO chance at this event with your constant you guys are not as smart as me let me prove myself format. If and when you have ever sit down in Vegas at a draft it will be Shawn Childs, Perry Van Hook, Mark Srebro,Brian Oakchunas, Chris Stephenson or Dan Kenyon glaring at you like you are the easiest money they have ever taken and they will be right. Those same guys would have helped you learn the nuances of this event- would talk to you about mistakes they have made and will not make again, or just give you honest feedback where you are in left field with most of your predictions/strategy.

How do I know they will help you- because they helped me when I was a newbie, and we still help each other to this day. I was torn between Figgins and Utley at pick 16 in 06- Dan Kenyon convinced me Utley was the right play even though everyone else had Figgins rated higher.

This is a nice bunch of guys who for the most part can give it and take it- come be a part of that in 07 and drop this I am the Yankees of fantasy baseball crap. Because Shawn or Chris Stephenson is and you will never hear them call themselves something like that.

Like everyone else has said if you are so good join and take our money- it would be the sweetest revenge.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 6:50 am

You never know when age will affect a guy, and injury is bigger chance.Last year in one league i took Adam Dunn over Sheffield , biggest reson age, Sheffield was sliding deep into the 3rd round , but i played it safe with Dunn.

Two years ago took Steve Finley in the 10th round coming off a 36 homerun season, he was 39 and i should have taken somebody different, well that was the year it ended for him, he sucked.

Couple other players last year that fell to age,

Randy Johnson era over 5.00, and back promblems.

Jeff Kent went 3rd 4th round,this year he's 10th round.

GRIFFEY , at 37 batting avg went from 301 to 252.

Brian Giles at 36 batting avg went 301 to 263.

Cliff Floydd at 34 always an injury concern , went 34 homers and 98 rbi's to 11 homers and 44 rbi's.

Aaron Boone and dont forget how fast Brett Boone went.

Barry Bonds i saw him go as high as the 5th round, BUST.

bARTOLO COLON went 222 innings to 56 innings.

Eddie Guardado at 35 fell apart.

PEDRO Martinez at 35 a BUST, injury becomes bigger risk with age with all these guys.

Thats it for now.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 7:00 am

Very good response. I don't mind getting critiqued as long as it's in a nice way, as you just did.

I do get "abused" by everybody here but I don't think it's because I'm wrong, just wanted to make that perfectly clear. I think there are a lot of people that might actually agree with me but they're afraid to get chastised on these forums like I have been.

I understand I have a lot to learn and I need to handle myself better if I am going to get respect and help for that matter.

I think I underestimated the talent here. Until I plop down the money for the main and go through a couple of seasons with you guys can I judge where I fit in with the top fantasy players.

As I said before, I will do a couple satellites this year and hopefully earn my ticket to the 2008 Main Event.

Good luck on your fantasy season.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 8:07 am

I agree with Chest, in a 15 man league and no trading , you cant make many mistakes.The older guys come with more risk, doesnt mean i wont take one, just if i can go younger i will.

hankstr · Post by **hankstr** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 8:16 am

I personally think that age is a huge factor in baseball fantasy drafts. The young drafters take too many risks and drink too much beer. The old guys like me just use a pencil and have no use for laptops. When we were kids we drafted in the snow and computed all the stats using long division. And we liked it.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 8:24 am

Originally posted by hankstr:

I personally think that age is a huge factor in baseball fantasy drafts. The young drafters take too many risks and drink too much beer. The old guys like me just use a pencil and have no use for laptops. When we were kids we drafted in the snow and computed all the stats using long division. And we liked it. up hill...both ways

Q

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 8:57 am

Originally posted by hankstr:

I personally think that age is a huge factor in baseball fantasy drafts. The young drafters take too many risks and drink too much beer. The old guys like me just use a pencil and have no use for laptops. When we were kids we drafted in the snow and computed all the stats using long division. And we liked it. Very funny!

It is amazing sometimes when I recall the days BEFORE Al Gore invented the internet and we calculated standings manually....

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 9:02 am

Originally posted by hankstr:

I personally think that age is a huge factor in baseball fantasy drafts. The young drafters take too many risks and drink too much beer. The old guys like me just use a pencil and have no use for laptops. When we were kids we drafted in the snow and computed all the stats using long division. And we liked it. Ha! 1st in LV3 wasn't bad for a guy with a pencil and a water and 2nd wasn't bad for a guy with a laptop and a beer.

Gekko put up a thread like this one a few weeks ago. Answering the question--the one in the title at least as opposed to the one buried in thinly veiled insults in the original post--is difficult to say the least because it is just one factor that interacts with others. You don't mark a guy down two slots just because he is 38 or up two just because he is 28. Factors like health and injury information, comparables, rate of decline and a number of other factors all apply so it is different for every player.

I will say that age has very little effect on my analysis of pitchers. I worry about the young guys making it through the injury nexus but an older guy like Clemens has proven his arm is healthy so I don't think his age really makes him an injury risk. Randy Johnson doesn't bother me because he's old, he bothers me because he has no cartilage in his knees, his health problems prohibit him from being effective out of the stretch, and he is in decline.

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 9:52 am

I have no problem taking risk.In fact I firmly believe that you can not win one of these leagues by doing what everyone else thinks is the best move.In fact the biggest mistake I make in a draft is taking a player that I think will make everyone else go great pick.You have to pick a roster to please yourself.That being said my first few rounds must be ROCK SOLID.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 10:00 am

I kind of agree with DiamondKing in this regard...

"In fact the biggest mistake I make in a draft is taking a player that I think will make everyone else go great pick."

In 2004 I drafted a team in my home league that everyone thought would finish dead last and they laughed at almost every pick I made. I won the league. I'm kinda hoping to come away from the '07 NFBC draft with a team that everyone thinks is horrible - then maybe I'll have a shot! Haha.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 10:03 am

[quote]quote:

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Originally posted by hankstr:

I personally think that age is a huge factor in baseball fantasy drafts. The young drafters take too many risks and drink too much beer. The old guys like me just use a pencil and have no use for laptops. When we were kids we drafted in the snow and computed all the stats using long division. And we liked it.

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up hill...both ways

[quote]

And up those hills, we carried a bag. And in that bag was a bunch of apples...apples that led real owners to victory...sorry had to, I still think it's the funniest thing...the bag of apples, banging on the door to get back in during the draft and then kicking absolute ass!

PS-To get to the quote, age was NOT as important a couple years ago because some people in their late 30's were using steroids, like Bonds and Palmeiro and even though others won't admit it until they get caught, you hear the rumors, and you see the increasing numbers late in age are now slowing back down again. Eddie, you got Finley...great example IMHO.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 10:04 am

and yes, I know Hanster isn't the apples guy and I'm not calling the apples guy old, just pointint out, he had apples, got locked out and still beat most if not everyone one of us in Ultamite...

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 10:08 am

In 2004 I drafted a team in my home league that everyone thought would finish dead last and they laughed at almost every pick I made. I won the league. I'm kinda hoping to come away from the '07 NFBC draft with a team that everyone thinks is horrible - then maybe I'll have a shot! Haha. There is something to this. I'd say it has to do with the people who are hung up on ADP. Reaching for guys is not a problem if you're reaching for the right ones. But people tend to evaluate you based on that than on the actual team you build.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 10:08 am

Originally posted by hankstr:

I personally think that age is a huge factor in baseball fantasy drafts. The young drafters take too many risks and drink too much beer. The old guys like me just use a pencil and have no use for laptops. When we were kids we drafted in the snow and computed all the stats using long division. And we liked it. Hilarious Hank - I remember years ago - yeah before there were internet services, one of the stat services on the East Coast said he could handle K/9 for a league I was starting. When I got my first stats in the mail (yeah snail mail)they just had K and after tracking down the owner, he admitted they couldn't make the change that year, so each week I had to recalculate the stats before I sent them out. THAT deserves a beer

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 10:18 am

The apple guy is David Dettera , he is 57 , or 58 which would make him old in fantasy terms.

Average draft age [ADA] is probably 35.David finished 1st in the NY ULTIMATE [not as strong as the Ultimate in Vegas.] AND 7th overall in the main, that is one hell of a year.

He did suck in football this year in every event, and we side bet everything.

Ballfour · Post by **Ballfour** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 11:10 am

Seems to me that everything ( age, youth, injury, team.....etc.) is relative in a fantasy draft. I believe there's danger in closing your mind to any type of player. It's all relative to what you need and where you can get it. The draft always dictates to you to some degree. I think a guy needs all of his options available.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 1:44 pm

Originally posted by hankstr:

I personally think that age is a huge factor in baseball fantasy drafts. The young drafters take too many risks and drink too much beer. The old guys like me just use a pencil and have no use for laptops. When we were kids we drafted in the snow and computed all the stats using long division. And we liked it. This has to be one of the funniest reply's in a while. Way to turn this thread around Hankstr.