Sabrs Batted 9th...You Just Know They Did

[DOUGHBOYS]

Sorry, I meant to post this under my subject head...
I'll leave it here for awhile then delete it....


WARNING! THIS POST IS ANOTHER RANT ABOUT BASE ON BALLS!
You have been warned.....

A radio expert told me that Joc Pederson is in the running for 'Rookie of the Year'.
I don't care who wins what when it comes to these awards. What pissed me off was his reasoning for Pederson being a nominee.
"He's walked 77 times, fourth in Major League Baseball. And, he has hit 23 homers."
THAT'S IT?
That is why he should be a possible rookie of the year?
Look, I am not going to beat the drum for Kris Bryant, or Grichuk, or Soler, or Syndergaard because I really don't care who wins this award.
I don't.

Sabrs have pounded in some folks minds that a walk is as good as a hit.
Its worked.
This radio fella thinks that Pederson is wonderful because he walks so much. I have Pederson on my Main Event team. I am close to calling him a bust.
He has gotten Luis Valbuena numbers.
Chris Carter numbers from last year.
Joc Pederson is a sluggo.
An Adam Dunn- lite
Dunn used to get walks too. It never helped his batting average. He didn't score more runs than others because of walks.
He just walked. And in most cases, pitchers were happy to have him walk.
Same with Pederson.
As a leadoff hitter, Pederson received walks from right handers who would rather face Howie Kendrick.
As an eighth hitter, he has easy walks, and believe me, Don Mattingly is doing the kid no favors by hitting him eighth.

Pederson has 77 walks, 84 hits, 42 extra base hits, and 23 homers.
He has scored only 57 runs.
Those walks do not translate to runs!
THIS, this is where sabrs miss their mark.
There should be another stat called 'productive walks'.
This would answer whether a walk was truly as good as hit (exactly half of Pederson's hits are extra base hits) or whether the walk was a 'pitchers weapon' in avoiding Pederson to get out of innings without his extra base hit.

Adeiny Hechavaria has walked just 20 times. Mostly hit down in the order. Has little power. And plays on a team that scores much less than the Dodgers.
Hechavaria has scored 53 runs.
And you know what else?
Hechavaria, that little shortstop with no power has 47 rbi....Same as Pederson.
Pederson seems programmed to take a walk like Joey Votto or Carlos Santana or other rbi producers.
Instead of driving in runs.
So, what happens?
Pederson becomes the hare in fooling fantasy owners that he could be a run producer.
While the tortoise, Hechavaria, slowly amasses the same rbi production in swinging the bat in most opportunities.

Pederson, like most k/bb influenced hitters, is a marvelous first ball hitter. He hits .378 with six of his homers coming on the first pitch.
Pederson has hit 20 of his 23 homers during the first three pitches of his at bats.
When the count is 2-2, 3-1, or 3-2, counts that are hitters counts, Pederson has hit just three homers.
For Pederson, those counts are 'walkers counts' not hitters counts.
While most hitters take delight in 3-1 pitches, Pederson has put only seven 3-1 pitches in play.

We live in a time where the walk is revered. Some radio guy says that Joc Pederson is great because he is fourth in baseball in taking a walk.
He's not.
He simply, is not.

Bring on the 'Productive Walk' stat! This would be a walk that caused a run to be scored.
Now that walks have become a radio personalities premier premise for Joc Pederson being included for ROY, I want to know how many of those walks were 'pitchers walks' and how many were 'productive walks'.
And if this stat exists somewhere, would somebody be so kind as to point me in that direction?

(muttering to myself)
One for seven on a 3-1 pitch?
Seriously?
Willie McCovey would be turning over in his grave if he were dead.
Right now, he is just shaking his head like me.
No he isn't.
He doesn't give a rats ass.
Man, he owned Don Drysdale though.
Even Joey Votto has put the ball in play 16 times on 3-1 counts, although only 4-16 with one homer.
What's wrong with these walkers!
Cripple pitch and they look to walk?
Stupid walkers.
Nelson Cruz is 8-11 on 3-1 pitches.
Three homers too.
Chris Davis 5-13, three homers.
Grip it and rip it.
Be productive.
Walks.
Looking for a walk on a 3-1 pitch is like looking for a Kia at a Porsche dealership.
Let the fast guys walk.
They do something with a walk...sometimes.
Ever hear a ball park after a fellow has walked?
Like a murmer. A slow tide coming in. Hardly a sound.
Guy gets a basehit and we hear that crowd roar.
Extra base hit and they go crazy.
.217 with 140 strike outs.
And all they talk about is 77 walks.
A walk is as good as a hit....
That probably started when the ninth kid in a Little League lineup came up and it was the nicest way that a coach could implore him to take a walk...
I'll bet sabrs WERE that ninth kid in the lineup...
Still thinking they were instrumental...
Growing up, knowing their team would have suffered had he swung the bat....
Stupid Sabrs....
Stupid walks...

[Sebadiah23]

He's walking way more often batting 8th, and it seems to benefit only in raising the SP's pitch count and helping to turn the lineup around, but it's only about 80 plate appearances, and you have to think this "plan" is temporary.

[DOUGHBOYS]

He's walking way more often batting 8th, and it seems to benefit only in raising the SP's pitch count and helping to turn the lineup around, but it's only about 80 plate appearances, and you have to think this "plan" is temporary.

Correct.
I feel that a good sense of the strike zone trumps the action of taking a walk.
I don't consider taking a base on balls as a skill. I know others do, and that's fine.
Let's say for arguments sake, that it IS a skill.
Why would Mattingly hit him in the eighth spot?
Over his last 10 games, Pederson has 11 walks.
A Sabr's wet dream.
He has scored once as a result of those 11 walks.
The worst possible place to put a 'walker'.
National League eighth hitters, if having any pop, walk a lot anyway. Better to face the pitcher next,blah, blah, blah.
In the long run, Mattingly is having him see less and less hittable pitches.
It can't be good for a kid who already strikes out and walks more than putting pitches in play.
A Managers ultimate job is to put players in a position to succeed that will most help their team.
Mattingly (again) is not doing that job.

[EWeaver]

I don't consider taking a base on balls as a skill.

wow

[DOUGHBOYS]

I don't consider taking a base on balls as a skill.

wow

I know, right?
Bryan Kenny would have me behind sabr bars.

[Cocktails and Dreams]

Nobody should confuse Mattingly for being smart. He is probably one of the worst 3 managers around. I still cannot believe he thought it was a good idea to keep going to Peralta in key situations. They deserve to miss the playoffs with this guy managing things.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I don't consider taking a base on balls as a skill.

wow

I know, right?
Bryan Kenny would have me behind sabr bars.

I'll elaborate on this for a bit....

Depending on the player, taking a base on balls can be a skill.
It was a skill for Rickey Henderson. It was a skill for Joe Morgan.
At the same time, taking a walk is not a skill for everybody.
I will not talk about Joey Votto here, because I have written pages on him.
Let's talk about Pederson.
Sabrs love that he walks so often. They call this a skill.
I do not.
In fact, I think that Pederson is being a detriment to his team and himself in being too selective.

Pederson is not running this year. He went 30/30 in the minors, but does not run for the Dodgers.
We don't know whether this is Pederson's decision or the Dodgers.
Pederson cannot give the Dodgers 'small ball' runs when occupying first base after a walk.
This is why a walk is a skill for hitters like Henderson and Morgan.

I tire of the argument that a 10 pitch at bat results in getting a Starter out of the game sooner.
It depends on the Starter and the bullpen.
A 10 pitch at bat vs. Jeremy Guthrie resulting in the KC bullpen entering the game quicker is a bad thing. Not a good thing.
Same for a lot of starters in 10 pitch at bats.
Still, announcers and sabrs alike crow that an extended at bat is a good thing across the board.
PHSSSHAW! That's right, I said it, PHSSSHAW!
Joc Pederson having a 10 pitch at bat against Despainge and striking out is not a good thing. But to be sure, every announcer will say it was.

Pederson can be a very good hitter. But, his 'skill' is getting in his way.
Pederson hits .380 when swinging at one of the first two pitches of an at bat.
.380!
But, he takes most of these pitches.
When seeing more than two balls in an at bat, Pederson only hits .169
Sabrs love the 'skill' Pederson has in taking a walk.
78 walks! Woo hoo!
They don't see the overall effect. That in getting deeper in a count, Pederson is becoming a walker, not a hitter.
It is also the reason why Pederson is third in all of baseball in striking out.
And still, they focus on the almighty walk.

For my own piece of mind, I avoid players with this 'skill' for fantasy.
I have Pederson on a Main Event. I thought that as a rookie, he may become more of a hacker and the 30/30 skills shown in the Minors was enticing.
But, he quit running and started walking.
That is not good for fantasy baseball.
I watch a lot of these games and if owning a walker like Carlos Santana or Joey Votto in an rbi situation and instead, they work a walk, it drives me out of my gourd.

[Donacion]

Dan drawing a walk is certainly a skill having a guy throw 100 MPH and seeing it is a skill. That said eating 60 hot dogs in 10 minutes is also a skill. Like you stated possibly a useless one. The Dodgers see it or the Utley trade doesn't happen. I think they are going to use Hernandez more in CF. As for Bryan Kenny he is impossible to listen to.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Dan drawing a walk is certainly a skill having a guy throw 100 MPH and seeing it is a skill. That said eating 60 hot dogs in 10 minutes is also a skill. Like you stated possibly a useless one. The Dodgers see it or the Utley trade doesn't happen. I think they are going to use Hernandez more in CF. As for Bryan Kenny he is impossible to listen to.

Agree Joe.
I believe that Pederson will start losing playing time. Especially in September with expanded rosters and the Dodgers in a pennant race.
Pederson hits equally bad (good?) vs. righties as lefties.
It won't matter. Managers like Mattingly pretend they're smart in having the righty/lefty matchup as often as possible.
I believe that Kike Hernandez and others will take away starts vs. lefties.

[DOUGHBOYS]

As for Bryan Kenny he is impossible to listen to.

Just for fun.....


Rock Springs had only one Little League team. Their town nestled at the bottom of the Rocky Mountains.
There were no aspirations of Williamsport.
Williamsport was for kids from big cities.
Rock Springs only cared about beating Fruitsville.
Even though Fruitsville was only 35 miles away, Fruitsville had many conveniences never afforded to Rock Springs.
Rock Springs had longer and colder winters. Snow drifts six to eight feet high, common.
Being a smaller town, their roads potholed, most, not paved.
Fruitsville had orchards, and a longer warm season to grow. They had new roads, most, paved.
They had enough kids for two little league teams, but only had one to be more powerful.

Adults of both towns lived through their kids when these two teams played.
A sign on the glass of the General Store read, "We haven't beaten Fruitsville in 18 years! This is our year!"
And with a hard throwing pitcher in Billy Mitchell, citizens of Rock Springs knew they had a chance.
Billy developed his arm throwing rocks and coal in the local mines.
Billy could also hit the ball a country mile (250 feet).
The locals were sure that with Billy Mitchell in the lineup, that Rock Springs would have a chance to beat their hated rivals.

The game between Rock Springs and Fruitsville was held at the Rock Springs Elementary/Junior High/High School field.
The grass, already turning brown was mowed nicely, as much to keep the weeds down as the grass.
The dirt part of the infield and outfield, actually gravel more than dirt.
Still, it was called dirt
When these two teams met, only baseball rules were followed, not little league rules.
A player did not HAVE to play...which was good for Rock Springs since they had only 10 kids on their team and that 10th kid couldn't play a lick.
A pitcher did not have pitches counted.
Bob Feller grew up in a small community and nobody ever counted his pitches!
What was good for Bob Feller was good for our kids!
And that was the way it was between Rock Springs and Fruitsville.

The whole town of Rock Springs came out for the game. Most of Fruitsville traveled the 35 miles.
Trusting souls sat on the ricketty bleachers. Most though, taking blankets and sitting on the fresh mowed weeds.
This game had kept a rivalry brewing between the two towns. Those playing in the game previously growing up, marrying, and hoping for Mothers to bear them boys to re-live the most important part of their youth. But more importantly, hoping their kid would grow up to take part in the beating given to the other town.

Billy Mitchell was throwing the ball so hard that Fruitsville batters looked like they were swinging at ghosts.
But Riley Gilbert, the Fruitsville flinger did the same.
At the end of six innings, nobody had scored.
In the top of the seventh inning, Billy Mitchell looked more like a boy than a town hero.
Tiring, Fruitsville loaded the bases on him with two outs.
The Fruitsville batter looked menacingly out at Billy. 120 pounds of bone, skin, and even a little muscle.
He swung his bat mightily, hitting a ball hard off his Louisville Slugger. On a line, the ball caromed off poor Billy Mitchell's noggin over to the first baseman who touched the bag that had been used for first base .
for as long as fols could remember.
Folks rushed to Billy's aid. Luckily, it was a glancing blow and after five minutes of thorough examination 'Ol Doc Boyer said that Billy would be ok.
That was the good news.
The bad news was that 'Ol Doc Boyer thought it best that Billy be driven to Fruitsville for x-rays and a second opinion.
Some folks called for an end to the game. Some Rock Springs citizens welcoming a tie after 18 years of taking it on the chin.
Others, especially the Fruitsville contingent, wanting to play on till a winner was determined.
Especially now that their best player was leaving.
These folks would get their way (as most Fruitsvillians do) and the game continued.


It may have been that Riley Gilbert was tiring or that the whole episode had interfered with his state of mind, but the Riley Gilbert who threw the first six innings did not look the same as the Riley Gilbert throwing now.
He walked the first hitter. The second hitter sacrificed him to second. A single put runners on the corners.
The winning run only 60 feet and 18 years away!
Riley re-gained his composure and struck out the next hitter. Two outs.
And now, Riley's Coach walked to the mound. (We say 'mound', it was a gravel area. The 'rubber', a piece of wood nailed down when the school opened 80 years before)
Both Riley and the Coach were seen laughing as if having a private joke with each other.
The Coach left the mound, Riley and he still snickering.
Riley threw a pitch outside, then another, and it became apparent in what those Fruitsvillians were up to.
They were walking their hitter to get to Billy Mitchell's spot in the batting order!

Rock Springs 10th player was by no means an athlete. He only 'played' on the little league team to appease his parents and friends.
He was more comfortable in Math Class or on the debating team.
And now, here he was, hitting for Billy Mitchell.
With the bases loaded and two outs, Rock Springs residents started lieing to him.
They shouted, "NO PRESSURE" WE LOVE YOU" and "YOU'RE A GOOD HITTER!"
He knew he was not a good hitter and smart enough to know that there WAS pressure and that he surely would not be loved if failing.

Riley Gilbert was a tough looking kid. He even had a tattoo.
Meekly, he stepped into the box to face the tattooed Fruitsvillian.
He took a ball outside that he knew he could never hit.
And even though the next pitch was a strike, he felt the same way.
He barely got outta the way of the next pitch.
"TAKE ONE FOR THE TEAM"
Those words wouldn't normally mean much, but it was his own Dad saying them!
That pitch made him even more alert. The next pitch came in high and hard and he swung.
The Rock Springs faithful moaned. His swing woefully late on a Riley Gilbert fast ball.
The next pitch in the dirt (gravel). The catcher caught the ball, deflating hopes of the Rock Springs crowd that a wild pitch would win the game.

It was now that little Bryan Kenny heard the words that would change his life forever.
"A WALK IS AS GOOD AS A HIT!"
Little Bryan knew that he could succeed by NOT swinging the bat!
He could be a hero by doing nothing!
He surmised that this could not be done in any other sport.
Even a pro football kicker still kicks the ball!
He prayed and promised God that if he would just make Riley Gilbert throw the ball offline, that he would devote the rest of his life to God and the base on balls.
Little Bryan went into a crouch that was Gaedelian.
The ball split the plate at Little Bryan's chest. Caught by the catcher.
Every player, every Rock Springs resider, and every Fruitsvillian turned their eyes at the Umpire.
"BALL FOUR!"

Since that game, Rock Springs has never won another game against Fruitsville.
Even though Fruitsville has three teams now.
And while one of the Fruitsville Nine teams is beating up on the Rock Springs team, their residents think back to that happier time.

Billy Mitchell grew up to be the Rock Springs Sheriff.
He throws drunks in a cell instead of throwing baseballs.
Riley Gilbert coaches one of the Fruitsville teams. It is said that he has never intentionally had a batter walked, no matter the circumstances.
Tattooed from head to toe now. As if hiding behind those tattoos hoping not to be recognized as the last pitcher ever to lose to Rock Springs.
And Little Bryan Kenny?
Little Bryan Kenny has put his love of Math, Debate, and base on balls 'skills' to good (bad?) use and works for a television channel.
He kept his promise.

[Yah Mule]

Nobody should confuse Mattingly for being smart. He is probably one of the worst 3 managers around. I still cannot believe he thought it was a good idea to keep going to Peralta in key situations. They deserve to miss the playoffs with this guy managing things.

Mattingly is horrendous but that bullpen is hot garbage. The new front office should have allocated some of the millions they casually toss around on something besides old retreads as setup men.

[Yah Mule]

Pederson's improvement as a 21 year old in AA to a 22 year old in AAA (especially his gains vs LHP) makes me believe he's going to make the necessary adjustments to be successful, but they might not happen this season. Also of note, his BABIP is .265 after posting marks of .350, .327 and .385 in the minors. He hasn't allowed his offensive struggles to impact his defense at all, which indicates maturity and confidence. I think he's one of the most promising young hitters in baseball and I hope the ugly BA scares people off him next year. We'll see if he can approach his minor league SB numbers. I doubt it since his success rate was nothing special down there and its brutal in the majors, but low double digits might be possible if Davey Lopes works with him next spring.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Once Fiers had the count on Pederson at 3-0, Pederson was dead meat.