Things You Didn't Know

[DOUGHBOYS]

The Rockies have more homers off right handers (122) than any other team in the National League...

The Rockies have the least homers off left handers (13) than any other team in the National League...

The Dodgers have only three bunt hits and 86 infield hits and 30 stolen bases, successful in only 52% of attempts...
All, Major League lows....
The next time somebody tells me how 'athletic' the Dodgers are, I'll tell them differently....

Four American League teams have more sacrifices than the Chicago Cubs....

Who leads all NL second basemen in rbi this year?....Jace Peterson

Alexie Ramirez has 434 at bats. Carlos Correa has 244 at bats. Kyle Schwarber has 122 at bats.
Each of them has scored 34 runs......

Bryan Pena has reached first base by hit, walk, fc, or hbp 112 times this year.
He has scored 14 runs.
Bryan Pena scores one of eight times after reaching base....

WARNING: WALK STATS!
There are 23 players who have over 50 bases on balls.
Every one of them have at least 10 homers.
15 of them have 20 homers or more.
Is walking a 'skill' for only power hitters?
Despite those homers and walks, only two of those top walkers are in the top five of runs scored...
Only two leadoff hitters have over 50 walks. Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter....

So far, only 12 players have stolen 20 bases.
Last year, 39 players stole 20 bases....

So far, nobody has a 15/20 year
Last year, Drew Stubbs had a 15/20 year.
Drew Stubbs was released....

Last year, 15 players stole at least 30 bases.
None of them walked over 50 times.
Not one.
Sorry, couldn't resist....

Dee Gordon and Avisail Garcia both have 27 extra base hits....

Shelby Miller averages over 30 innings pitched for every Win....

Nate Eovaldi averages just over 10 innings pitched for every Win....

Sorry Wayne....

Colby Lewis has given up 50 more runs than Zack Greinke.
Both have 13 Wins....

Jonathon Papelbon averaged one Save a week with the Phils.
With the Nationals, Papelbon is still averaging one Save a week....

Trevor Rosenthal gave up seven earned runs in July.
In April, one. In May, one. In June, 0. In August, 0...........

Kyle Lohse has two more strike outs than Brett Anderson....

When a batter takes a pitch, 71% of the time, it is a ball. Or 29% are strikes.
When a batter takes a pitch with two strikes in the count, 72% of the time, it is a ball. Or 28% are strikes.....

[Bronx Yankees]

So far, nobody has a 15/20 year
Last year, Drew Stubbs had a 15/20 year.
Drew Stubbs was released....

Changed tonight. Goldy up to 24/20. When you tack on a .330 BA, 90+ RBI and counting and a bunch of R, you really can make a case for Goldy over Trout next year, especially if the Angels fail to boost Trout's supporting cast. Should be interesting to see if there is suspense at the top of drafts next year or whether it is Trout all of the time like this past year.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

There is not much to NOT like about Mike Trout.
Picking nits though, he has stated in both of the previous pre-seasons that he would like to steal more bases.
And he has stolen less.
There could be a multitude of reasons.
Pujols has hit well behind him.
Pujols stating that he doesn't like runners moving during his at bats.
Hitting third does not offer the opportunities as hitting first or second once did.
Stealing a base is not a premier thought as it once was for Trout....
It could be all or none of these reasons. We don't know.

So the question for us as drafters this coming season is that realizing that Mike Trout is no longer the stolen base guy that he once was, does his power categories and smaller speed still make him an Overall number one pick.
Trout's line is .297/80/33/73/10
It's a helluva line.
Although some of his drafters may be disappointed in the lack of stolen bases, they were still rewarded with stats becoming of a first overall pick in a draft.
What next years number one drafters will be asking themselves is about the repeatability (new word?) of Trout's stats.
They'll find that they are highly repeatable. Not only that, but with a possible shift to another spot in the batting order or a Pujols injury, it is possible that the stolen base statistic could increase.

Does Goldschmidt take away the top spot from Trout in some drafts?
Probably.
But probably, not very much.
And this may be about the stolen base statistic as well.
Goldy's line is .327/79/24/93/20
Beating Trout soundly in three categories. And truth be told, Goldschmidt, even at 24 homers, has been a little disappointing in that statistic.

Goldschmidt has twice as many stolen bases as Trout. He has attempted 10 more steals than Trout as well. Stolen bases are a mindset for Goldy, a priority. He is an opportunity base stealer. Much like Anthony Rizzo or Todd Frazier. These opportunists like to pick the right pitch in which to run. They are only blessed with average speed, so the pitch, lead, pitcher/catcher dictate when to run.
But, a funny thing happens to these opportunists.
One year when they reach first base, they quit feeling that stealing a base is not as important as the year before.
Eric Hosmer was an opportunist. He stole 11, 16, and 11 bases.
Now he is stealing four or five.
Daniel Murphy stole 23 bases in 2013. Now, he hardly runs.
Hosmer, Murphy, and other opportunists have reasons for not running as they once did.
It could be injuries below the hip. It could be that they are in different spots in the lineup. It could be a different team around them. Or, it could be that they do not seek out those opportunities as they once did.
The point being that opportunists do not maintain a high stolen base number every year.
Sabr's and others like calling this 'regression'.
I don't see it that way.
We can say that Eric Hosmer 'regressed' in his stolen bases. And sheer numbers support that.
I don't feel Hosmer has 'regressed' at all. He still has the same speed.
The only thing that has changed is his mindset.
If he wanted to be an opportunist again, he could be.
He could steal 20 bags.
It is up to us to decide whether that will happen or not.
While a player with Trout's speed is different.
He could see a significant uptick/downtick in stolen bases from year to year.
If he wanted to, he could steal 40 bases. He is beyond an opportunist in speed.
But, like an opportunist, he has to want to steal bases.


Even without Goldy's stolen bases, he certainly qualifies as a number one overall pick. Like said, he is beating Trout in many categories this year.
At the same time, Trout will be the overwhelming number one pick next year.
Like some voters, drafters like incumbants.
Trout has not disappointed. His numbers have the repeatability factors, along with the thought that his stolen bases could blossom under the right circumstances.
Goldscmidt has the repeatability factor and his owners could even hope for even more homers.
At the same time, he may think of the stolen base next year as a not a high priority and his numbers in that category could tumble.
Still, Goldschmidt has done something that all players have failed in doing the last couple of years.
He is making drafters think about somebody besides Mike Trout as their number one pick in drafts.

[Edwards Kings]

Just means a lot of folks who get the #2 pick will be saying "Well, ok...if I have to...."

[Bronx Yankees]

Good analysis, Dan. I generally agree with it all. I also agree, Wayne, that Goldy (or Trout) makes a helluva consolation prize if drafting second.

I do not mean to imply that I definitely would take Goldy over Trout if blessed with the first pick. My point being that, unlike last year, I do not think that Trout is a lock for first pick and that irrespective of drafters' preferences, you can make a compelling case for Goldy over Trout. I think Goldy has room to improve HR, even if 20+ SB turns out to be optimistic in future years. I give Goldy an edge in BA and RBI, and can give Trout the edge in HR. Goldy plays in a hitters' park; Trout, a pitchers' park. Goldy currently has a definitively better supporting cast, notwithstanding a rejuvenated Pujols. Right now, at least, I can't really make the case for someone other than Trout or Goldy as the first pick, although I'm sure there will be some outliers. Should make for an interesting drafting season.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Last year, just about every kds started with 1. and then whatever.
This year, I believe most will start 1. 2. and then whatever.

[Bronx Yankees]

Last year, just about every kds started with 1. and then whatever.
This year, I believe most will start 1. 2. and then whatever.

And some KDS may be 2, 1, whatever.

Mike

[Edwards Kings]

Or, one, two, three...three, two, one....two, three, one....two, one, three....two, three, one.....

"Bryce Harper went 2-for-3 with a walk and a two-run single, but the Nationals dropped Wednesday's game to the Padres 6-5.
Harper got the Nationals within reach when his seventh-inning two-run single made it a 6-5 game. The 22-year-old is on a seven-game hitting streak, carrying a .332/.456/.639 triple-slash line with 31 home runs, 76 RBI, and 89 runs scored in an MVP-caliber season."