The Real Enemy May Be Approaching

[DOUGHBOYS]

We're men. We used to be boys. We're going to fight. And these Boards have fights going constantly.
Some are mean. Some are entertaining. Sometimes, we even allow ourselves to take sides.
It's just the nature of the Man Beast.

Chad Schroeder and Joe Berg are not well liked by some. They called out a wrong the previous year in a high stakes private league.
In their opinion, they were wronged in that league and took it public.
By taking it public, it hurt the feelings of those they accused.
Those hurt feelings have never gone away. Probably never will.

Chad and Joe had some amazing accomplishments this year.
Really amazing.
This year, Chad and Joe seemingly entered every 12 team league created.
It wasn't a surprise to me. Joe loves the format and Chad saw opportunity in a return on investment.
They were successful. Very successful and I salute both of them.
For some reason, the fact that they entered so many teams is being thrown back in their face.
I don't get it.
Hell, if I could manage that many teams well, I would do the same thing!
I don't have the time or money though.
And, I know my limitations. Lesser money teams at $150 is more my financial style, than many $1500 teams
Criticizing Chad and Joe for playing many leagues within the rules and capitolizing on a shallow pool is silly.
They won and good for them.

There is a problem. A greater problem coming than one, two, or even 10 individuals. This is a critical year for the NFBC.
The Main Event has been propped up by the same reasoning that some come to criticize Chad and Joe.
Multiple entries.
Little has been said about those that enter the Main Event several times. Without these multiple entries, the Main Event would not have 400 teams. Maybe not even 300 teams. Maybe not even 250. I don't know.

Even more critical is that this will be the first year that daily fantasy fully effects the NFBC. Greg is fearless when it comes to this industry. His thinking that ANY fantasy interest is good interest.
I don't agree. I believe that the daily game will raid the pockets of the season long game. I have talked with NFBC'ers who are budgeing their money.
Before this year, that budget was how much would go into DC's, Main's, Primetimes, etc.
Now, it is how much to put into daily games and how much to put in the NFBC.
It's a little scary.

The answers should come before the Main Event in whether the daily game is a friend or foe.
I believe that DC's will suffer most. If we get less DC participation, the daily game will be blamed by me.
If there is more participation in DC's, then, well... I'm full of crap and Greg is right.
I'm rooting for Greg to be right.

[Gekko]

I think what they accomplished this year wih 12 team leagues was a very strong showing. No way around it. To capture all those league titles and all that money is one of the single most successful seasons to date of anyone.

But let's not kid ourselves, when an owner has a team in every league but one, that skews the odds of winning the grand prize dramatically in their favor. That owner can now diversity his portfolio and take chances his competitors can't take, on draft day, every Faab period and every lineup period.

Yes, this was within the rules and the opportunity was perfectly recognized by chad/Joe. They bought all the teams and poured in all the time.

In the DFS space, I tend not to play multi-entry tournaments because some sharks buy up hundreds or thousands of teams. How is my single team going to compete vs a shark that has 500 teams and almost every possible combination covered? Same concept existed here

[KJ Duke]

Last year they were the worst sore losers in the history of the NFBC. This year they are sore winners. I don't understand the compelling need to congratulate ... Is anyone congratulating Ticketmaster for cornering the market on event tickets thus dramatically raising the cost for all consumers? We hate you Ticketmaster, but, hey, well done. How about the CEO of Turing Pharmaceutical who raised the cost of a single pill that is off-patent from $2 to $750? Nice job, dude. Goldman Sachs? Doing God's work! Chad is a professional gambler and now fantasy player. With no job and multiple investors backing him he has more time and capital and focus than almost anyone else here, and he uses that edge. Is he competent? yeah. Does he need or care about my congrats? no. Was I amazed or surprised? no. He is running a business with significant resources against the majority who are playing for fun and hoping to win enough to break even or hit the lottery. He was the odds-on favorite to win. Not amazed, at all. What they are doing is very much like the DFS pros. Yet even Dan is compelled to congratulate them. And Greg too, even as they are criticizing him and as always being a pain in the ass. Are we as competitors compelled to worship success, no matter sportsmanship? I'll pass. I will root for and congratulate guys like Lindy, Jupinka, KOQ and Potts all day long even as they are taking my money - because of how they do it and how they handle winning and losing.

At some point in the future we will have higher-tier pros in this contest, running algorithms and plastering the contests with huge numbers of entries like DFS sucking out most profit potential. Until then, I will enjoy competing against the actual competitors in this contest, those that understand sportsmanship and know how to behave whether winning or losing.

[DOUGHBOYS]

When cashing in 13 of 14 DC's one year, I thought that was an amazing accomplishment as well.
And, I congratulated Mark for that accomplishment.
Never, not once, did I think Mark was 'layering' teams to win an Overall.
I don't think Chad and Joe did either.
Their teams had five of the top 10 teams.
Incredible, really.
And if 'layering', you don't finish with five of the top 10 teams.
Five of top 10 teams over 188 other teams over a six month period IS an accomplishment.

I will not play the daily games.
There are folks with computer programs with many ways to win a game.
It can be manipulated in ways that I could not comprehend.
That's the way a one day game plays.
I'd be in over my head.

[KJ Duke]

When cashing in 13 of 14 DC's one year, I thought that was an amazing accomplishment as well.
And, I congratulated Mark for that accomplishment.
Never, not once, did I think Mark was 'layering' teams to win an Overall.

A point of difference ... DC's are draft-dependent, and thus analysis-dependent. Also most are done early in the season which is when the most hard-core players are drafting against you, and in 15-team leagues. That setup would be much tougher for a pro or algorithm to duplicate. The 12-teamers, which are heavy on grinding/reacting and spending time, and light on projecting, I believe are easier to do.

[DOUGHBOYS]

There is one aspect that I find over-the top amazing.
Sunday.
I don't care if Chad has all the time in the world. I don't care if Joe has all the time in the world.
Sunday is a bitch.
The only good thing about Sunday is knowing that other's are going through the same thing as well.
I know I cut back on my faab leagues last year in dreading Sunday.

I can't imagine going through 16 primetime teams and other teams every damned Sunday.
Some say they were grinding.
They're wrong.
That's what WE do every Sunday. We grind.
Having that many teams at a high cost isn't grinding, it's grueling.
They were tethered to a large investment. They had no choice but to go through every grueling Sunday, probably while cussing themselves for having so many damned faab teams.
If there is an algorhythm for Sunday. It'd be patented.
As is, there are too many variables in each league.
Heck, I can see that with just five or six faab leagues.

[Donacion]

Hi Dan

What you outlined is why I stopped playing season long fantasy football. I had a budget and daily plus my casino bets left no room for season long. As for Sunday's just my opinion but I personally spent more time on Monday and Friday lineup decisions. I hated myself for one team can't imagine 16 plus. No majic for me on FAAB I tried to figure an auction value and multiplied by 4. It worked except for the relief pitchers and hot rookies. I did end up with some decent free agents, Schwarber, Grichuk, Parra, Piscotty Wieters and Darnaud. Missed on all the relief and Correa need to figure that out for next year. I'm curious what in your mind is the biggest difference between the 15 team and 12 team format. I get the 90 extra players I just don't get the reference to grinding.

Hopefully I will run into you next year to say hello.

Joe

[DOUGHBOYS]

It'll be great to see you again, Joe. An absolute pleasure last year.
And a big congrats for winning that league. Well deserved.

Grinding is how much we put into each league. First among grinding is knowing every possible player on your team and available to your team.
Is a player hurt? How badly? Is he platooning? Is he hot lately? Did he pick up more positionality?
Can he play Mon-Thurs? Does he have good matchups for Fri-Sun?
Each player available for bid has a worth inside your head.
Do other leaguemates like this type of player?
Will they overbid? Is he positionally needed? Does a leaguemate need him more?
On a scale, how many of your leaguemates would 'sell out' to get this player?
As a whole, is that league bidding below average for players or above?

All these questions and more are part of the grinding process. They should be asked every Sunday for every league.
It's a grind.
The folks that do it every Sunday without fail are grinders.
It's tough.
I was a better grinder a few years ago and it shows in my teams.
In my mind, I'm a little bit worse of a fantasy player because of it.

Doing it 16 times in one format while maintaining excellent teams in others, boggles my mind.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Speaking of awesome years by NFBC players.
Mark Srebro with another great year.
Here's what he did.....

A total of 22 NFBC leagues this year and cashed in 20 of them!!!

$1,600 Main Event. Finished 1st in league and 5th overall (out of 450 teams)

$1,300 AL Auction. Finished 1st

$2,500 Super league. Finished 3rd

$350 Online Championship. Finished 1st in league and 62nd overall (out of 1,500 teams).

Fifteen $150 Draft Champion leagues. Finished:
1st in 5 of them ( top team finished 10th overall out of 2,880 teams)
2nd in 6 of them
3rd in 2 of them
Out of money in 2 of them.

That is one hell of a resume for one year.
Mark has accomplished a lot in the NFBC. I've already mentioned his 13 of 14 cashings a couple of years ago.
I believe he also has three top finishes in the Overall Main Event.
He's knocked on the Hall of Fame door in the past.
This year, I think he knocked the damned door down.

[Bronx Yankees]

Speaking of awesome years by NFBC players.
Mark Srebro with another great year.
Here's what he did.....

A total of 22 NFBC leagues this year and cashed in 20 of them!!!

$1,600 Main Event. Finished 1st in league and 5th overall (out of 450 teams)

$1,300 AL Auction. Finished 1st

$2,500 Super league. Finished 3rd

$350 Online Championship. Finished 1st in league and 62nd overall (out of 1,500 teams).

Fifteen $150 Draft Champion leagues. Finished:
1st in 5 of them ( top team finished 10th overall out of 2,880 teams)
2nd in 6 of them
3rd in 2 of them
Out of money in 2 of them.

That is one hell of a resume for one year.
Mark has accomplished a lot in the NFBC. I've already mentioned his 13 of 14 cashings a couple of years ago.
I believe he also has three top finishes in the Overall Main Event.
He's knocked on the Hall of Fame door in the past.
This year, I think he knocked the damned door down.

That is an amazingly impressive performance! While I understand the purpose of a career winnings list, it probably is not the best measure of success given disparities in number of contests entered, the different buy-ins and prize amounts, etc. It would be interesting to see lists that showed: (a) number of contests entered, first place finishes, second place finishes, third place finishes, and percentage cashed; and/or (b) number of contests entered, entry fees paid, prizes won, and ROI. I would wager that Mark's performance would be damn near-impossible to beat. That is an incredible season.

Mike

[BK METS]

Last year they were the worst sore losers in the history of the NFBC. This year they are sore winners. I don't understand the compelling need to congratulate ... Is anyone congratulating Ticketmaster for cornering the market on event tickets thus dramatically raising the cost for all consumers? We hate you Ticketmaster, but, hey, well done. How about the CEO of Turing Pharmaceutical who raised the cost of a single pill that is off-patent from $2 to $750? Nice job, dude. Goldman Sachs? Doing God's work! Chad is a professional gambler and now fantasy player. With no job and multiple investors backing him he has more time and capital and focus than almost anyone else here, and he uses that edge. Is he competent? yeah. Does he need or care about my congrats? no. Was I amazed or surprised? no. He is running a business with significant resources against the majority who are playing for fun and hoping to win enough to break even or hit the lottery. He was the odds-on favorite to win. Not amazed, at all. What they are doing is very much like the DFS pros. Yet even Dan is compelled to congratulate them. And Greg too, even as they are criticizing him and as always being a pain in the ass. Are we as competitors compelled to worship success, no matter sportsmanship? I'll pass. I will root for and congratulate guys like Lindy, Jupinka, KOQ and Potts all day long even as they are taking my money - because of how they do it and how they handle winning and losing.

At some point in the future we will have higher-tier pros in this contest, running algorithms and plastering the contests with huge numbers of entries like DFS sucking out most profit potential. Until then, I will enjoy competing against the actual competitors in this contest, those that understand sportsmanship and know how to behave whether winning or losing.

KJ, you just need to suck it up and move out east. I mean, seriously... You belong here. The "contingent" meets at Glenn's house every month. There are 14 of us. We could use a 15th member. We discuss all of the plans of how we are going to figure out a way to stop or diminish accomplishments of those that are not on the east coast. Glenn provides the refreshments, I'm in charge of bullying, and Mark just sits in a corner studying 2017 prospects. We could really use a professional and creative director, with "inside information" on how to beat the west coast contingent. Seriously, consider it. I'm hearing there is a guy from Queens selling his 3 bedroom home in Astoria and moving on up to Connecticut. Opportunity knocks.

[TOXIC ASSETS]

If Srebro isn't in the hall of fame, then close it down. Year after year this guy brings home the $$$.