Live Chat With Greg On Thursday, 2 P.M. EST

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:18 am

Okay, Greg, how is this year's signups compared to years past?

Great question, Greg. We are sitting at 162 signups for the main event today, more than 30 signups ahead of last year's pace. We also have 45 Ultimate League participants, equal last year's total with two months of signup period left. All of the side events are up and I trust we'll have a strong NFBC Satellite season.

We have some good ad campaigns planned with USA Today Sports Weekly, Google Ad Words and other magazines and you'll love the editorial coverage we gave the NFBC in our first issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine. The two-page color spread with our league champs is a classic and will be a staple of our magazine going forward for all of our sports.

And with any luck, we'll have a wild card up our sleeve to REALLY promote the NFBC and our NFBC Content Panel. Stay tuned.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:21 am

thx for the pitching responses, on to some controversial hitters ---

1) Chone Figgins is going in the 3rd rd this yr, last yr went late 1st rd --- is he the most overvalued player heading into 07, or is he a bargain 2 rds later than last yr ?

2) Brian McCann, is he really as good as he showed last year?

3) Brian Anderson had a horrible start last year for the CWS that despressed his season avg even though he came on a little bit late in the season, will he get another shot or will suber sub Mackowiak get the nod ?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:21 am

Okay Greg, long-time listener, first-time caller. Here's one more question for ya:

Will Albert Pujols go No. 1 in EVERY single NFBC league?

No way. Now, it's possible that LaDainian Tomlinson will go No. 1 this year in EVERY NFFC event as he is definitely the most dominant player in the NFL. But as good as Pujols is, I can see someone deciding to lock up steals early with Reyes and I already saw Nate Ravitz grab Johan Santana in a 12-team experts league, so anything is possible. I just think that with so many leagues and with so many regional factors and category factors, that some owner will grab someone other than Pujols with the No. 1 pick.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:24 am

Do you think the Boston Red Sox closer is currently on their roster?

And do you see any big deals or relatively big deals happening between now and grapefruit/cactus league play, other than the one that is up your sleeve?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:25 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

thx for the pitching responses, on to some controversial hitters ---

1) Chone Figgins is going in the 3rd rd this yr, last yr went late 1st rd --- is he the most overvalued player heading into 07, or is he a bargain 2 rds later than last yr ?

Okay, one at a time:

1. Figgins is a third-round bargain, but when I had a shot at him last month I passed. I've looked for every possible sign in his stats to see what went wrong, but I don't see anything. Strikeouts, walks, gap hits, stolen base percentage, everything is the same as 2005. His on-base percentage fell from .352 to .336, but the talent is still there. He's capable of getting back to 2005 levels in my eyes very easily.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:27 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

2) Brian McCann, is he really as good as he showed last year?

3) Brian Anderson had a horrible start last year for the CWS that despressed his season avg even though he came on a little bit late in the season, will he get another shot or will suber sub Mackowiak get the nod ? 2. McCann just never stopped hitting last year, even after he came back from the ankle injury. He is extremely impressive, but like most people I'm not totally sold on him yet. I highly doubt if I'll have him in any league this year because I just won't bite that high for a catcher with two years of experience. Just not my style.

3. I had Anderson last year and stuck with him WAAAAYY too long. Guillen also stuck with him too long. If he doesn't stand out in a big way this spring, no way the White Sox give him a chance again. Just my two cents, but I believe he got his shot last year and there's no reason to think that he'll just turn it on during his sophomore season.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:29 am

Do you think Jon Papelbon will pan out as a starter/ or burn out?

~Lance

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:30 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Do you think the Boston Red Sox closer is currently on their roster?

And do you see any big deals or relatively big deals happening between now and grapefruit/cactus league play, other than the one that is up your sleeve? Yeah, Jon Papelbon!

Why not just stick with him as your closer and know that you have the best closer there for the next 10 years? That's what I'd do.

Joel Piniero??? C'mon, I just don't see it. Theo is a smart man, but I haven't figured this position out yet. He certainly has the financial means to do better than Piniero.

Oh yeah, there will be plenty of deals done before spring training. It's been an extremely quiet off-season and the winter meetings didn't yield much. I think you'll see plenty of signings and trades, although they may be the Geoff Jenkins types.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:32 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

greg- non fantasy question ( sort of). are the brewers, cubs and dodgers in a race to see who can field the worst defense of the 21st century? Finally, a post on defense. They face some pretty stiff competition from the likes of Pittsburg, Tampa, and the Boston outfield.

Actually, I'm quite bullish on the Brewers D. Hardy, Counsell, and Koskie are the best left side of an infield in baseball. Fielder and Estrada are capable/average, and Weeks, yes, is a nightmare but the rest of the infield more than makes up for him and Counsell will brobably get a lot of his innings, especially late in games and in the case of injury or slump. The Brewers won't keep Weeks in the field if he's not hitting either. Clark and Hart are a little above average in center and right and Bill Hall can't be worse in left than he is on the infield.

The Dodgers outfield is below average but not despicable. Gonzalez can still pull his weight out there. Furcal is phenomenal and Kent seems to have aged gracefully in the middle infield, but the infield is hampered by the corners. I wouldn't even want Nomar as my first base coach, but hopefully he will improve with experience. Betemit would be better replaced with a glove on a stick, but since he doesn't have any offensive skills to speak of either, you have to think they will look for a replacement. Martin is good behind the dish. Overall, they are maybe #20 out of the thirty teams.

The Cubs had an excellent team defense last year, but one would think they were overperforming to look at the parts. This year they are gambling that Soriano can play center. I'm gambling that he can't but he was good in left and has good support in right and left so the outfield ends up being projected as average. The infield has more pot-holes, er, question marks. I know that Dewan thinks Lee is overrated but I don't really buy that. Ramirez is god-awful though and Barrett is exponentially worse as he can't field or hold runners. Izturis has no business on a baseball field and since Cedeno isn't much worse, he'll brobably end up with the playing time at short. Derosa looks average. It is hard to say how it will all pan out but it is a little scary.

[ January 11, 2007, 01:41 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:33 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Do you think Jon Papelbon will pan out as a starter/ or burn out?

~Lance Good question Lance as I kind of answered that above. Guys who have seen Papelbon pitch more than I have all have said he will be a dynamite starter as he has much more than just a good fastball. Just remember that since he joined the Red Sox in 2003, he hasn't pitched more than 144 innings in a single season. He pitched 129.2 innings in 2004, 143.2 in 2005 and 68.1 last year. You'd almost have to think that his arm isn't ready for 200+ innings, so plan accordingly.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:36 am

bjoak, as I said previously, I don't agree with your assessment of Rickie Weeks. First of all, his defense was much better during the last two months that he played last year and had only a handful of errors. His OBP was .363 and he had 19 stolen bases in 95 games. This organization is going to be EXTREMELY patient with this 24-year-old and there is no way they are going to yank him out of the lineup even if he struggles a bit in the field.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:37 am

C'mon Decisionist, you must have a question!!

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:43 am

It is time for my annual memoribilia question. Let me preface it by saying, the fact that you guys do anything for a weekly win is a bonus and is very much appreciated. That being said, 2004 the weekly prizes were phenomenal. Autographed jerseys, hats, gloves, bats really cool put up in my man-cave kind of stuff. However the last two years, there have been alot more autogrpahed baseballs, which are fine, but they lack the window shopping appeal of 2004. Now that it is 2007 and the event has grown exponentially, I wonder if the pizzazz of '04 might return?

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:44 am

In 2005 Helton and Beltran, in 2006 Teixeira and Figgins - who in the first round disappoints this year and why?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:46 am

Good point on Weeks and I do think he can improve in the field, but I still think they will want to find AB's for Counsell at times. I don't really buy errors as a reliable metric of defense but it is hard to get half season splits with other types of data so he may have been a lot better by any measurement.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:46 am

Who has the 3B job in Tampa after the All-Star break?

~Lance

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:47 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

It is time for my annual memoribilia question. Let me preface it by saying, the fact that you guys do anything for a weekly win is a bonus and is very much appreciated. That being said, 2004 the weekly prizes were phenomenal. Autographed jerseys, hats, gloves, bats really cool put up in my man-cave kind of stuff. However the last two years, there have been alot more autogrpahed baseballs, which are fine, but they lack the window shopping appeal of 2004. Now that it is 2007 and the event has grown exponentially, I wonder if the pizzazz of '04 might return? Well, I'm at the mercy of the sponsors that agree to work with me. Upper Deck Authenticated was our weekly sponsor in 2004 and they were our weekly sponsor for football this year. They had personnel changes last year and thus we partnered with Tri-Star Promotions, which definitely offered less valuable items than we had previously. We are talking with UDA again for baseball, but we'll see what happens.

It's not easy landing these sponsors and thus beggers can't be choosy. But we'll keep talking with all of our partners in the sports collectibles industry and see what we can do. We're talking with Athlon, Mounted Memories and UDA now.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:48 am

Could ole' Kaz "The Other" Matsui be the player he was down the stretch last year in 07? (hitting over .300)

~Lance

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:50 am

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

In 2005 Helton and Beltran, in 2006 Teixeira and Figgins - who in the first round disappoints this year and why? Wow, I don't even want to guess at this one. There certainly wasn't anything to predict the mini-slumps of Teixeira and Figgins, two young kids who had nothing but upside.

Just looking at our Top 15, Berkman could have trouble repeating 2006's numbers and same for David Ortiz. Heck, I guess you could add A-Rod as maybe last year were some signs of decline. Also, there's never a guarantee with pitchers, so even the great Johan Santana has risk. But the rest of that first round is filled with young guys who seem to just be getting better.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:51 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Good point on Weeks and I do think he can improve in the field, but I still think they will want to find AB's for Counsell at times. I don't really buy errors as a reliable metric of defense but it is hard to get half season splits with other types of data so he may have been a lot better by any measurement. The only ABs Counsell is getting is when Koskie or Hardy go down with injury. He's nothing more than insurance on that team, $6 million worth of insurance.

[ January 11, 2007, 01:51 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:53 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Who has the 3B job in Tampa after the All-Star break?

~Lance A better question is: Who has the 3B job in Tampa BEFORE the All-Star break?

Where is Upton going to play? My guess would be Akinori Iwamura at third base and Jorge Cantu at second, but if the Devil Rays decide to trade Cantu then Iwamura could move to second and Upton could stay at third base. But Iwamura won six Gold Gloves in Japan while playing third base, so why not just keep him there all year?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:57 am

More Home Runs in 2007...

Delmon Young, or his "Father" Da Meat Hook! (HA!)

~Lance

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 8:03 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Could ole' Kaz "The Other" Matsui be the player he was down the stretch last year in 07? (hitting over .300)

~Lance Yes, anything is possible. But remember that Matsui hit .411 at Coors Field, which was a big help. He also hit just .119-0-3 againt LHPs and you can't hold a fulltime job hitting like that. Beware of some of those warning signs.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 8:05 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

More Home Runs in 2007...

Delmon Young, or his "Father" Da Meat Hook! (HA!)

~Lance I'll go with Delmon!!

Okay, I've gotta split to close a deal. Thanks everyone and feel free to post questions as they come to you here and I'll do what I can to pop in and out today and tomorrow. Tom will definitely schedule weekly chats starting next week.

viper · Post by **viper** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 12:51 pm

I get this thing started and work keeps me from attending. I somehow have to stop work from getting in the way with the rest of my life.