Live Chat With Greg On Thursday, 2 P.M. EST

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:46 am

Sorry I missed the chat greg. Question - how many AB's do you see right now for Upton in 2007?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:49 am

Next question...I heard reports that R.Cano could throw up MONSTER numbers due to being on the Yanks, as well as his tremendous skill set. Would you be surprised if Cano is a consensus 3rd round draft pick next year?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:57 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Sorry I missed the chat greg. Question - how many AB's do you see right now for Upton in 2007? This is a great question, but unfortunately I don't have an answer. I really don't know where they will play him this year after signing Iwamura this off-season (which, by the way, was a good signing for this franchise). If they moved him to the outfield, maybe he'd do well there and get 500+ at-bats.

I like this kid a lot and I think he will be an offensive force on the basepaths if they just leave him alone and let him play. I see Shandler has him projected for 496 ABs and 36 stolen bases. We have him projected at a little over 400 at-bats and 32 stolen bases, with a .266 average. I'd say project for 450 ABs and hope for the best because his upside is strong.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 3:02 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Next question...I heard reports that R.Cano could throw up MONSTER numbers due to being on the Yanks, as well as his tremendous skill set. Would you be surprised if Cano is a consensus 3rd round draft pick next year? Well, he already put up monster numbers last year. Despite missing 40 games last year, he hit .342 with 15 homers with 78 RBIs and 62 runs. He's the third best second baseman in a weak second base class (Utley and Roberts are ahead of him). He's gone 53rd and 63rd in our two magazine drafts, so you're talking more of a fourth and fifth round pick. I'd trust he will go in the fourth round in the NFBC drafts, but could land in the third round once people see how weak second base is.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 4:55 am

Greg - where in the redsox lineup will Lugo hit

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 4:57 am

Greg - who gets more saves - gagne or otsuka?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 4:59 am

Greg - I constantly see smoltz being undervalued. Will he still have productive years left on that arm since his innings pitched were limited when he was a closer?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 7:19 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Greg - where in the redsox lineup will Lugo hit Second sounds good to me. His career OBP is a respectable .340 and his value would go up if he landed there. I'm not positive that's where he'll land, but it would be good enough for me.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 7:20 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Greg - who gets more saves - gagne or otsuka? Gagne. His body will hold up for at least three months, right?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 7:24 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Greg - I constantly see smoltz being undervalued. Will he still have productive years left on that arm since his innings pitched were limited when he was a closer? Forget about those closer years. In the last two years he's thrown 461.2 innings. During 13 years as a starter, he's pitched less than 200 innings just twice. There is a LOT of mileage on that arm and he will turn 40 in May. He's a health risk at any time, but he's such a warrior that you can never discount him. Still, is he undervalued? No because the risk is high based on his age and number of innings he's pitched. I'd take him, but probably not where others are taking him because I'd rather go with these young kids who are popping up everywhere with 90+ mph fastballs.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 7:30 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Greg - where in the redsox lineup will Lugo hit Second sounds good to me. His career OBP is a respectable .340 and his value would go up if he landed there. I'm not positive that's where he'll land, but it would be good enough for me. [/QUOTE]So Youk will lead off? He doesn't have Lugo's speed. In '05, Lugo had a .368 OBP (though it looks like an outlier year).

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 7:42 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Greg - I constantly see smoltz being undervalued. Will he still have productive years left on that arm since his innings pitched were limited when he was a closer? Forget about those closer years. In the last two years he's thrown 461.2 innings. During 13 years as a starter, he's pitched less than 200 innings just twice. There is a LOT of mileage on that arm and he will turn 40 in May. He's a health risk at any time, but he's such a warrior that you can never discount him. Still, is he undervalued? No because the risk is high based on his age and number of innings he's pitched. I'd take him, but probably not where others are taking him because I'd rather go with these young kids who are popping up everywhere with 90+ mph fastballs. [/QUOTE]Bigger question is where Smoltz fits on your roster- the "hearburn" of his health is a lot easier to handle if he is your number 2. Unfortunately he will someone's number one in a lot of leagues because they may have misjudged a starting pitching run ( I predict it will happen to a lot of people this year) and have to take a risk on him as a number one.

I also think you have to take a close look at the back end of Atlanta's bullpen. The bullpen may be improved enough where he gets some 5 and 6 inning wins this year. They are still rumored to be in for Mike Gonzalez and IF Soriano is healthy, and Wickman survives another year without having a stroke on the mound it be a nice pen.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 7:58 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Greg - where in the redsox lineup will Lugo hit Second sounds good to me. His career OBP is a respectable .340 and his value would go up if he landed there. I'm not positive that's where he'll land, but it would be good enough for me. [/QUOTE]So Youk will lead off? He doesn't have Lugo's speed. In '05, Lugo had a .368 OBP (though it looks like an outlier year). [/QUOTE]I don't know, maybe they'll flip. it will be interesting to see, but Lugo could score a lot of runs if he lands at the top of this lineup.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:01 am

of course if you would have drafted smoltz as your #1 last year , along with shilling, mussina, glavine, maddux, orlando hernandez, and rodgers- for a combined age of about 300 years- you would have 1) been ripped for drafting the all "old" staff and 2) had a really good pitching staff. but...... that was last year. i love smoltz- he is a pro in every way. sooner or later he is gonna break down. hope it is later.