'Value' Should be a Four Letter Word

[DOUGHBOYS]

As Americans, we are instilled with the art of getting the best buy.
Depending on the money in our pocket we will
1. Go, literally, the extra mile to save five cents on a gallon of gas.
2. Go through the lines at WalMart to buy a convenience store item because of prices.
3. Let price dictate the car we buy.
In essence, we are trying to get the most bang for our buck.

Some try to bring these habits to fantasy baseball. They'll use adp as a price guide. They'll call players who drop below adp 'prices' as value picks.
This, THIS is damned silliness.
These players do not come with a value attached.
Mike Trout was taken number one in almost every draft last year. He was perceived as the best player in baseball. Andrew McCutchen was number two, Kershaw three, Stanton four, etc. etc. etc

Some will see this list of players in adp and forget what adp is. Adp is our general assessment of where these players will go in drafts. As the year progresses, especially near the end, drafters will think of these rankings as a merit system. Even though the players themselves have done NOTHING to change these numbers. The change of numbers comes from US.

We don't really expect Mike Trout to be the best player in baseball every year. Still, we will brand somebody a fool if not using the first pick on Trout. That is our perception working. It was hard to perceive a player better than Trout last year. Yet on some teams, Bryce Harper could have been a better pick. So could Dee Gordon, depending on team construction. So could Jake Arrieta.
We take Mike Trout because he was the most apt to have the better year.

The 'value picks' come later. It drives me crazy to hear somebody say they got value.
Folks, listen up, come here, and let me whisper this in your ear....
THERE IS NO VALUE DURING A DRAFT PERTAINING TO ADP!!!!
Last year Carlos Gomez was the number eight adp player, Rendon 22nd.
Did their drafters get 'value' in taking them in almost ANY round?
I'll answer that for you. No.

Last year, Glenn Schroter won the Main Event.
His first five picks were Trout, Bumgarner, Arenado, Bryant and Betts.
Average adp would be 1, 30, 31, 60, 61
The actual adp was 1, 31, 43, 79, 93
With these first five picks, Glenn was the anti-value drafter.
These picks are called 'reaching' by some.
For some reason, 'reaching' carries a negative conotation, while 'value picks' a positive.
I don't get it.

My point being is that it is not when we draft a player that is utmost importance, but who we draft that is the thing most remembered.
I've already finished two drafts for the upcoming 2016 season. I love these drafts because there is absolutely no adp.
We are left to our own devices. No publications. No rankings. No adp. Bliss.
In those two drafts, not one person accused another of taking a player to soon.
Later, these players will have rankings and adp. They'll find a place where 'they should go' and some will fall into the trap of thinking 'value'. We'll read it, we'll hear it on the radio.
The media is the worst at using 'value'. They'll use adp figures as gospel.

These 'prices' are not the gas station a mile away.
They're not WalMart.
They're not even the price difference between two cars.
They're not really, even prices.
They're perceived value. Much like we would guess a stock price six months later. It's not tangible.
Yet, we treat it as such.
The only difference being that adp has a gang mentality to it. It carries what a fantasy expert thinks about a players worth.
Exactly the same weight is given to a fantasy idiot.

What is amusing is that these adp's are built from folks playing the 50 round DC game. A completely different game than the 30 round game. In the 50 round game, sturdier pitchers, stable lineup players, and players with more positionality get a boost from their drafters.
Yet, some will take these 50 round adp's as equal to the 30 rounders. And worse, most of these 50 round DC fellows will never be seen at live events. They will not play the big money games. It may be because of their pocket books or confidence of not measuring up, or something else.
In the end, the fellows that do go to live events and big money drafts have an adp built mostly by those who don't.
Where's the value?

I'm not going to convince many about the word 'value' being so misused by fantasy drafters.
I know that.
But next time you use the word in describing a pick, remember that the 'value' of that player was built by lesser drafters than yourself. Folks who have been told that Carlos Gomez was a great 'value pick' in the second round. And that Anthony Rendon was a second rounder for both 50 round and 30 round drafts.
Glenn saw value in players while virtually ignoring their adp.
He is a lot better off for it.
Value, truly, is in the eye of the sole drafter.
Not in a conglomeration of drafters.
Stay true to your own beliefs.
Nothing is written in stone. If thinking that Goldschmidt will have better numbers than Trout, draft him!
If thinking that Tulo will flourish in Toronto, take him.

Use adp as a guide, not a blue book.
Tulo in the first round while having an adp of 60 would be foolish. Even if thinking that Tulo will be the best player in baseball. Use adp as a guide that Tulo will still be there in the second round, perhaps third.
If really thinking that Tulo will be the best player in baseball, you will not let him become a 'value pick'. Doing this would endanger the drafter in losing his player and the perception of losing the best player in baseball next year.

Be smart.
There is plenty of value out there.
That value has zero relationship with adp though.
It comes from within our own minds.
Not the masses.

[Bronx Yankees]

A Doughboys' post on "value"? Now I know the 2016 drafting season officially has begun!

I agree with everything said about ADP. Highly overrated. Arguably useful as to about when you need to grab a player you really like if you want to be reasonably sure to land him (for instance, your example of no need to draft Tulo in the first round if he has an ADP of going in the 4th or 5th round). I think the best anti-ADP argument probably is one you made several years ago that always stuck with me - in a 15-team draft, all 15 owners will contribute equally to ADP and 14 of those owners will lose the league. Thus, less than 7% of the picks that go into ADP are by folks who will win their leagues. Picking players based solely on their ADP is akin to sheep following sheep.

Your post made me curious as to how ADP "performed" this past season. Here are the top 15 players based on ADP - in other words, the consensus first round - followed by their rating on the NFBC player rater.

1. Trout 10
2. McCutchen 33
3. Kershaw 5
4. Stanton 144
5. Goldschmidt 2
6. Mi. Cabrera 73
7. Abreu 42
8. C. Gomez 131
9. Bautista 27
10. Encarnacion 29
11. F. Hernandez 55
12. Altuve 9
13. Rizzo 19
14. A. Jones 104
15. Tulowitzki 151

Thus, out of the 15 first round ADP picks, only 4 - Trout, Kershaw, Goldschmidt and Altuve - returned first round value (the same number that fell outside the Top 100 players in terms of performance).

Here is a companion list of the top 15 players based on the NFBC player rater, followed by their ADP.

1. Arrieta 97
2. Goldschmidt 5
3. Pollock 157
4. Gordon 41
5. Kershaw 3
6. Greinke 48
7. Harper 29
8. Donaldson 18
9. Altuve 12
10. Trout 1
11. Blackmon 76
12. Machado 130
13. Keuchel 229
14. Scherzer 16
15. Arenado 43

Thus, 5 of the top 15 players last year (at least according to the NFBC player rater, with which some may differ) had ADPs of the 6th round or later (Arrieta, Pollock, Blackmon, Machado, Keuchel).

This is nothing new. It is the same every year, only the names change. There always will be first round picks that turn out to be horrible values based on injuries and poor performance, just like there always will be players that are drafted much later that will surprise and deliver first round value (the real fantasy MVPs).

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Good stuff, Mike.
Yes, we do have to keep in mind just how adp is built. The DC's for some, is their season in the NFBC. For more, it is a way to pass time with the chance of winning money. For others, the DC's are mock drafts. Getting a feel as to when to draft favored players. There is a false sense of security for these drafters. Live drafters truly do not wait for 'value picks'. If liking a player, they take him.

There are 'value picks' in a sense.
For instance, in the fourth round, we want to draft both Fielder and Seager. Love them both. We take a peek at who the drafters behind us have taken, and decide that Seager has a better chance of making it back to us.
And he does.
This is a value pick.
Not because of where they are in regards to adp, but because we are pleasantly surprised that we got two players, that in our minds, are fourth round players.

Again, good stuff, Mike.

[low talkers]

Dan, I've always enjoyed your rants against value.
What I'm unsure on is whether I agree with your theory or not. I don't fully understand if you think there is such a thing as value at all?
Did Glenn get value with his picks of Arenado, Bryant and Betts this year? And if so, would he have been allowed to call them value picks on draft day?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Dan, I've always enjoyed your rants against value.
What I'm unsure on is whether I agree with your theory or not. I don't fully understand if you think there is such a thing as value at all?
Did Glenn get value with his picks of Arenado, Bryant and Betts this year? And if so, would he have been allowed to call them value picks on draft day?

In the middle of drafting season, it is almost like there is a 'value' attached to each player.
Trout and Kershaw are first rounders.
Braun and Marte are second rounders.
Kluber and Bumgarner are third rounders.
We see these players taken in these rounds so often during a draft season, in our minds and in their adp, that those become their 'values'. If we take these players before these rounds, we are considered to be 'reaching'. A derogatory term meaning that we did not get full price for our pick. If we take these players later, we got a 'value pick'. A term that is self-congratulatory or held in esteem by most.
Why, I don't know.

At the time, Glenn had no value in his picks and most would have even criticized him for reaching. DID he get value from his picks?
HELL YES!!!
That's the problem with even saying the word 'value' during a draft. Not one soul knows the true value of ANY player.
It is not determined till the season is over.

I think you were in Las Vegas last year, Dave. I'm old and these drafts start running together
But, I saw an interesting phenomena take place there and maybe you saw it too.
In his Main Event draft, Lindy took George Springer and Starling Marte with his 15th and 16th picks.
I've never seen word get around so fast to every table in who Lindy took and where.
In every draft thereafter, Springer and Marte's draft spot soared.
It wasn't because of drafters being guppies or followers.
It was because the reckoning of a Hall of Fame player who has won the Main Event twice, overrode all those who had given Springer and Marte their original adp's.
And rightly so.
Seriously, would we listen more to who Lindy likes one on one or listen to the masses?
No contest.

Glenn's first five picks illustrate what I have been saying. He did not draft the where, he drafted the who.
Where a player is in adp pales to who we think will help our team most.
He got no value on draft day.
He got full value on the last day of the season.
And THAT is where we want our value.

[King of Queens]

If you want to make sure you get a player, don't rely on ADP. Take the guy you want.

If there are two players you are indifferent about, but you want both, take the player with the higher ADP. Hope that the guy is still there for your next pick.

[fwicker]

The average time of day is noon.