Does this even make sense?

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Sun Jan 14, 2007 1:34 pm

This is the first round of picks by Shandler last year (3/28/06). By first round, I mean his top 15 list for NFBC.

Now I agree, there are several things he says that I agree with or at least find interesting, but the one player that really stands out is Juan Pierre. #5? Was he in a league picking 6th? That, to me, is throwing in the towel. If someone picked him 5th in my league, I would have gotten up, walked out, found Tom and said, "Can I please have my money back? The fix is on in my league. Someone is in kahutz."

I'm really at a loss here. I just can't believe this. Can someone please explain this to me? I read the reliability column, but there are more reliable, more valuable players. At most, Pierre is a 3 category player.

I don't say this to mock Shandler. On contrary, I value his efforts, but I am dumbfounded by this. If someone with no experience listed Pierre as #5, I would take it with a grain of salt, but when you have an industry expert, it just seems bizarre. I really hope I have misread something somewhere.

1. Pujols

2. ARod

3. D Lee

4. Bay

5. Pierre

6. Guerrero

7. Santana

8. Reyes

9. Wright

10. Abreu

11. Figgins

12. Rollins

13. Crawford

14. Utley

15. Helton

[ January 14, 2007, 07:36 PM: Message edited by: poopy tooth ]

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Jan 14, 2007 2:41 pm

Pierre at #5 overall makes very little sense. However, he was a consensus 2nd round pick last year -- so it's not COMPLETELY out of whack. Shandler also overemphasizes positional and categorical scarcity.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:32 pm

Pierre made no sense there, neither did Bay, his model has been out of whack for SBs ever since the NFBC began.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:46 pm

Not to harp on it, but if someone subscribed to his web site last year, i would be very interested in his projections for Pierre v. Crawford. Something around 3/28/2006, if possible. Just trying to get a grip on this. My values are out of whack and a frame of reference would be nice.

Thank you!

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 12:24 am

Also notable is the absence of Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez. These guys were taken in the 1st round of every NFBC draft a year ago.

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:08 am

Shandler projected Pierre for 2 HRs, 92 runs, 44 RBIs, 58 SBs, and a .306 BA.

He projected Crawford at 17 HRs, 99 runs, 70 RBIs, 41 SBs, and a .295 BA.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:12 am

Thank you, Sluggo. I don't disagree with SB being more valuable than HR. I don't agree with the assessment, but I have a better understanding of where it comes from. (If I remember correctly, Crawford also had some question about his wrist, which may have affected the positioning also.)

Still disagree!

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:14 am

Originally posted by poopy tooth:

This is the first round of picks by Shandler last year (3/28/06). By first round, I mean his top 15 list for NFBC.

WHY would you care what his list from last March looked like?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:12 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by poopy tooth:

This is the first round of picks by Shandler last year (3/28/06). By first round, I mean his top 15 list for NFBC.

WHY would you care what his list from last March looked like? [/QUOTE]I think it makes a lot of sense- I save my sources from the year before and spend about an hour or two every year seeing how they did- if they consistently do not perform they get eliminated. To me that is a pretty useful application of my prep time.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:57 am

I always check last years stuff. Sometimes even older stuff.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 7:29 am

shandler's projections put a premium on speed and scarcity

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 7:32 am

Yeah, was just seeing what kind of emphasis he puts on different categories...has some good projections, also some that are off the wall to me, so was looking to compare to NFBC drafts, as well as my own projections.

I see speed is overrated. (At least IMHO!)

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 7:39 am

poop - should i be drafting in NY if i want to get D.Wright late in the 1st round?

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 12:40 pm

LOL. I wouldn't take him with 7th pick again this year. I think he'll go late 1st round (11th and on for most drafts.)

NY is the place where the $100K winner will be...just not sure which league I'll be in.