Babe Ruth Would Spit on Sabrmetricians

[DOUGHBOYS]

If you guys have read my stuff, you'd know how I feel about the base on balls.
Sabrmetricians have championed the base on balls for batters.
For fantasy, unless your hitter (walker) is a speedy type, the walk is a lost at bat.

So, let's go at the base on balls in a different way.
Things have changed in baseball and they haven't. Babe Ruth piled up walks. Setting records. If there were a hitter who did not want to set a record for taking a base, it Babe Ruth.
He was the Bambino.
The Sultan of Swat.
A walk to him, was a chance to hit a home run, taken away.




1. Barry Bonds 2558
2. Rickey Henderson 2190
3. Babe Ruth 2062
4. Ted Williams 2021
5. Joe Morgan 1865
6. Carl Yastrzemski 1845
7. Jim Thome 1747
8. Mickey Mantle 1733
9. Mel Ott 1728
10. Frank Thomas 1667
11. Eddie Yost 1614
12. Darrell Evans 1605
13. Stan Musial 1599
14. Pete Rose 1566
15. Harmon Killebrew1559
16. Chipper Jones 1512
17. Lou Gehrig 1508
18. Mike Schmidt 1507
19. Eddie Collins 1499
20. Bobby Abreu 1476
21. Gary Sheffield 1475
22. Willie May 1464
23. Jimmie Foxx 1452
24. Eddie Mathews 1444
25. Frank Robinson 1420

These are the all-time walk leaders.
Among the players on this list that actually 'worked' a walk consistently is Henderson, Morgan, Yost, Rose, and Abreu.
I didn't see Collins (believe it or not).
About one of every five hitters WANTED a walk while batting.
SABRS give them instant credit for taking that walk.
They do this even though the pitcher had more to do with them walking to first base than the hitter.
As fantasy players, we appreciate the talents of Henderson, Morgan, and Abreu in working a walk. It could result in a stolen base. Something we covet.

Lets get off the all-time list and go to last year...

The top 10 homer hitters last year

1 Chris Davis 47 84
2 Nelson Cruz 44 59
3 Bryce Harper 42 124
4 Nolan Arenado 42 34
5 Josh Donaldson 41 73
Mike Trout 41 92
7 Albert Pujols 40 50
8 Jose Bautista 40 110
9 Carlos Gonzalez 40 46
10 Edwin Encarnacion 39 77

These are home run totals followed by walks totals...

Only two of these sluggers had less than 50 walks. The two Colorado Hitters.
Arenado was never thought of as a slugger till last year. It'll be interesting to see how his walks jump this year.
CarGo did not start hitting till later in the year.
Pujols with 50 has set personal lows for walks since joing the Angels. It is no secret that he is less feared among pitchers, so his walks are going down.
Sabrmetricians would have trumpeted his days as a Cardinal when receiving over 100 walks.
They forget that there is two sides to a walk.

Now, lets look at base stealers...
..................SB....BB
1 Dee Gordon 58 25
2 Billy Hamilton 57 28
3 Charlie Blackmon 43 46
4 A.J. Pollock 39 53
5 Jose Altuve 38 33
6 Ben Revere 31 32
7 Starling Marte 30 27
8 Lorenzo Cain 28 37
9 Gregory Polanco 27 55
10 Jarrod Dyson 26 14
Billy Burns 26 26
12 Elvis Andrus 25 46
Jean Segura 25 13
Delino DeShields 25 53
Kevin Pillar 25 28

Among the top 15 stolen base artists is not one hitter who walked more than 60 times.
These are the hitters who would love to 'work' a walk.
Some. like Burns, Gordon, and Segura seemingly giving up on the notion.
In fact, Burns hit the first pitch thrown to him more than most sluggers.

The fact is, that pitchers are willing to give up first base in A LOT of situations.
What they do not want to do is give up anything beyond first base.
Second base obtained is a fluke hit away from scoring.
In avoiding power hitters in some situations, extra base hits are exorcised.
In pitching to speed players, the stolen base, earned.
Sabrs automatically think of a walk as a good thing for a hitter.
Even if a team's best hitter comes to the plate with the bases empty and two outs.
Go ahead, ask that players 24 teammates and his Manager if it's a good thing.
Nothing is an automatic 'good' in baseball.
Even a hitter taking a walk.

EDIT- Just for those that said it couldn't be done...
A post about walking men without once mentioning the man from Cincy

[Bronx Yankees]

Dan - I generally agree with most of your post, to be fair I think you are omitting part of the story. A good eye, which leads to more walks, also can help sluggers overall. Let's not use Joey Votto - we're all sick of you writing about him. Let's take Bryce Harper.

In 2013, Harper walked 61 times (12.3%).
In 2014, Harper walked 38 times (9.6%).
In 2015, Harper walked 124 times (19.0%).

Your post would cast the increased walks by Harper as a negative, and in some situations, they probably were not helpful to his team or his fantasy owners.

But ... I am not sure you can completely divorce an improved eye from his hitting statistics. For example:

In 2013, Harper homered 20 times in 497 plate appearances (once every 24.85 PA).
In 2014, Harper homered 13 times in 395 plate appearances (once every 30.38 PA).
In 2015, Harper homered 42 times in 654 plate appearances (once every 15.57 PA).

Is the increased power totally unrelated to an improved eye? I don't think so. One could argue that once pitchers learned that Harper rarely would swing at pitches that would be called balls, they had little choice but to put him on base (while not a base stealer, he often does take the extra base and can pile up runs) or pitch to him. I have to think his big surge in home runs is related - at least to some extent - one being more selective at the plate. That selectivity put him on base more often, and the fact that he scored 118 runs with a crappy and often injured supporting cast may have been one of his best achievements last year. Also, because he was not swinging at bad pitches, his batting average climbed (.286 in 2013, .273 in 2014, and .330 in 2015). Granted, if he swung at more pitches, perhaps his RBIs would have been higher, but at what cost to Runs and Batting Average and possibly Home Runs?

Perhaps the difference between Votto and Harper is that while Votto seems pleased to "work" a walk with runners on second and third, I think Harper finds it physically painful. Still, I would argue that his success last year - including more Runs, a much-higher Batting Average and, yes, more Home Runs - is at least partially an outgrowth of an improved eye at the plate and taking a sufficient number of walks such that pitchers realized he was not going to get himself out on a bad pitch.

I look forward to your response. It's an interesting debate. Like I said, I agree with a lot of what you posted, including that a slugger taking a walk is not much help to his fantasy owner (and can be infuriating at times) IN THAT PARTICULAR INSTANCE, but I do believe that an improved eye which leads to more walks also can (but not always) lead to better outcomes in the at bats that do not result in a walk.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

I can't even debate you on Harper, Mike.
I totally agree.
Harper grew up as a hitter last year. I would even call him 'disciplined'.
A description, I could not attach to Harper in previous years.
You're also right in that Harper is in no way like Votto. He doesn't go to the plate inviting a walk. But, he'll take one if not getting his pitch.

I do consider Harper as more of a young outlier.
Goldschmidt will go outside of the zone as will Bautista and many other power hitters. They know what they are paid to do and they know what makes them money and adulation.
Harper is the most dangerous hitter in baseball. Bar none.
There are those who have more mph like Stanton or have a more vicious swing like Schwarber.
Harper though, is now the complete package as a hitter.

I wish I could have debated you, Mike.
But, I agree that Harper is a hitter unlike most others.
A little like Albert Pujols in his prime.
Harper's prime time is now and he'll see over 100 walks for the next few years. And as Harper's prime years decline, I'll bet like Albert, his walks do as well. In that way, we may both be correct

[ToddZ]

requires Twitter but most timely

https://twitter.com/alexpodlogar/status ... 1282280449