Whither an Expert

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:39 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Others like the 3B pool this season. I don't. I like the top-5, but after that I see it as a risk every possible pick. I would much prefer trawling in the 1B waters, as THAT is where I see the value corner picks. This may be another article, but why do you think there is so much 3B risk this year? I understand there is a clear top five (Cabrera, Wright, A. Rameriez, G. Atkins, and Wes Helms), but after that there are 20+ players with 20 to 30 HR potential which will give you 65 to 85 Runs and RBI's. Sure, some of the averages stink, but even so you have other guys at the position who could contribute like Figgins (SB) and F. Sanchez. I really have 3B as deep with quite a few proven players. What gives you concern?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:50 am

EK -- no worries, Ron and I are friends and have mutual respect for each other's work. As a matter of fact (speaking of advertising), I will be joining him on his spring First Pitch Forum Series and we're doing the West Coat (LA and SF) for the first time along with the usual stops in Wash DC, NY and Boston. As most know, just because Ron, Nate, or we at FantasyBaseball.com have a particular player ranked say 5th, that doesn't mean the best play is to take him 5th, not if his ADP appears to be at least a round later. That's the value in seeing some potential breakout candidates.

GG - Sory man, but I have not thought much about the Dodgers batting order yet. There are only so many hours in a day and I prefer not to use too many of them on something so speculative at this time, when the answer will be more apparent as we get closer to draft time. I know some incorporate the exact batting order position into their projections, but I don't. I'm OK with knowing a guy will be a table setter, in the meat of the order or at the back-end.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:56 am

Wayne -- if you keep talking about Helms, he will no longer be a sleeper.

I suppose the best way to put it is I see more upside and potential profit with less downside risk with guys like Prince Fiedler, Conor Jackson, Lyle Overbay, Ryan Shealy and Adam Laroche than I do the 3B field, though Blalock is a guy I have not totally soured on. Guys like Glaus, Beltre, Chavez, Rolen will all go higher than I would want to take them.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 1:27 am

HEY TODD, i just completed the shawn childs draft with you , about a week ago.I had the 10th pick , and you the 9th so we bumped heads a few times.I wouldnt take a pitcher in the 1st round, the star everyday players will always start my foundation.Last year in the ultimate i took AROD ONE and came back with C LEE and BERKMAN, ALL three guys had 1st round value.

My question , i took PODSEDNIK in the 10th round pick 6 , then you took W Taveras the next pick. Both speed guys , who would you rather have and why.Another question, A Rios or A Dunn , who has more value.

Last i noticed you took C Jackson in the 11th round , a lot of great value around in that round, why Jackson. thank you , and i really like this baseball talk.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 4:03 am

Eddie -- my FantasyBaseball.com partner Perry Van Hook aka Captain has a saying -- the best draft spot is the one in between two morons. So based on that, I guess that means I was screwed drafting between you and Shawn, two of the most successful NFBC combatants to date. With respect to Santana, I know I have the nads to take him say 11th in a Satellite. I don't know yet what I would do in the main event. The ONLY reason I say this is I am not worried at all about his performance or injury risk relative to other first rounders.

Comparing Podesdnik to Tavarez, right now, as of Jan 16th, I give the nod to Tavarez solely because I am more confident he plays 150+ games than I am Podsednik does. I have mentioned that I am a fan of Willy T in Coors, citing the success Pierre had there. I think Pierre's contact rate is a little better than Tavarez, but overall, Tavarez should take advantage of the vast greenery behind the infield.

Rios v Dunn -- I haven't done projections yet so I can't speak in exact dollar value terms. They are different types of players so that boils the comparison down to need. Dunn will knock more out, Rios will get more bags, no one needs me to tell them that. It also comes down to profit efficiency. In general, you can get Rios a couple of rounds after Dunn so there is the chance he returns a higher bang on the buck. Finally, you know what you are getting with Dunn, you just don't know if it comes wrapped in a .230 package or a .270 package. Rios is still on the positive side of the learning curve thus there is room for growth. If the question is which would I prefer, the answer is a matter of team needs. If I had a batting average like Ichiro and Vlad, I would not hesitate to take Dunn say 5th or 6th. Otherwise, I'd rather get the potential upside and steals from Rios a few rounds later. However, I suspect that I won't be rostering Rios simply because his ADP is at a point where I am not looking for an OF and my guess there will be someone that has him on their breakout list and will draft him before I would. But in an auction, he's on my radar for sure.

I am an OBP guy, believeing good things happen to people who don't make outs so Jackson is definitely someone I like. Most will project mid-teens homers, but he has the upside for 10 more. I don't remember the exact reason I picked him, I suspect I sensed needing some help in batting average and took the upside potential power along for the ride.

[ January 16, 2007, 10:15 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 4:37 am

TODD , thanks for giving me your perspective on those questions.IM not a PODSEDNIK guy , but needed steals , i fiqure if he can stay healthy and even platoon , say 450 atbats , he could steal 50 maybe even more steals.BUT of course there is also downside , his legs have to be ready and if he doesnt hit, maybe wont get those 450 atbats.He also is get caught stealing more, which is a bad sign. He is someone i wouldnt want , but if needed steals and the right round , maybe.I also agree with you on everything you said about Taveras.He did have a better 2nd half with higher bavg and 21 steals , also he's 6 years younger than PODS. THANK YOU.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 5:20 am

Todd Z, glad you're making your presense felt more on the boards - i've always valued what you've had to say here.

Which fits your philosophy on the closer category ?

1. Are you of the must have 2 by the 10th (maybe if lucky the 11th) round camp to get you 80 saves and 12 pts

2. willing to gamble on a quasi type in the 16th rd along with various MM in the 18th+ rds hoping to garner 80 saves this way

3. or grab closer #1 in rd 10, fortify the SP and offense and splash the cash chasing the weekly FA's to get what you can (prob no more than 3-6 pts in saves but more if fortunate)

thanks

Q

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 5:50 am

Q -- Let's see if I can explain this right. I look at the pitching as a whole and figure to compete, I need 55-65 points from my staff. I see two logical means to that end.

1. High wins, high Ks, decent ratios and low saves.

2. Great ratios, high saves, decent Ks and wins fall where they may.

So what I do is let my starting pitching dictate the direction I go in with saves. In both cases, high K starters are paramount. Once I have a couple of those in place, probably by round 8, I look to see where the value is. If I perceive the value to be with starting pitchers, you can have the closers, I'll get 30 points in wins/Ks, 20+ in ratios and 5+ in saves for my target 55+. This is what I ended up doing in Shawn's draft. If I favor the relievers, and feel I can get two by 11/12 and a third speculative guy later along with one more high K SP, I will go that route and further fortify the ratios with a Scot Shields, then stream starters into spots 7, 8 and 9.

The thing to keep in mind is that while in real MLB, there are tons of saves by guys that do not have the job opening day, in the NFBC, the owners are extremely adept at cherry-picking speculative closers and there are not as many saves available in free agency as there are quality starters (especially if you can play good matchups)so whatever you do, get your saves on draft day and let the other guy worry about FAABing the few saves that sneak through.

[ January 16, 2007, 11:52 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 6:12 am

Todd- I have a question for you how can you be so knowledgable and have stunk so far at this event?

I mean seriously great advice- love your reasoning, we agree on almost all player analysis but yet you do not do well.

Which leads to the question of can someone simply get unlucky over a 3 year period? If you say no- I will go ahead and tell you that you will be my example as to why I think you can.

I am sure there are things you would do differently, we all make mistakes (ole Chest released Grady Sizemore in week 1 of 05) but you have had to be a little unlucky in this contest.

Hope this is the year you turn it around and win some big money brother.

Oh yeah I was part of the contingent that killed you on John Patterson in 05- I guess it is self explanatory that you were right and I was wrong on that one. BTW Patterson is an interesting guy in 07 to me.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 7:12 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Which leads to the question of can someone simply get unlucky over a 3 year period? The NFBC has the best group of owners I've ever seen in my 20 years.

That said, many of my UFS guys are pretty darn good and any owner can get unlucky over a 3-year period. It just happens sometimes. It's rare that it is three straight years, most often just one or two.

It has been my experience in watching thousands of owners the past two decades, that "on average", one will get nailed by injuries once every five years, and one will have good injury luck every five years. Bad luck is having H.Matsui go down just about the whole year.

To win the NFBC, you have to take some chances, and if they don't work out, it's below the NFBC Mendoza line (200) for you.

Moneymaker · Post by **Moneymaker** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 11:46 am

This thread keeps getting better, Todd. What compensation are you getting for all the work you're putting into to this board?

Moneymaker · Post by **Moneymaker** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:02 pm

Greg, could you please speak to this issue?

Isn't it a conflict of interest for someone to work for you and compete in the contest?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:05 pm

Originally posted by Moneymaker:

Todd -- great stuff thus far. The content panel hasn't provided anything worth reading yet. Greg shouldn't award them a dime. But you deserve a raise!

Edwards Kings -- you spelled my name correctly. How could you forget it?

And BaseballHQ.com is not overrated. Visit Shandler Enterprises website and subscribe today! Easy on the content panel, Brian. I haven't asked them to provide more than the rankings at this point as it's my fault for not leading them better as the editor. I'll throw out some projects to the group soon once I get through all these baseball mags Tom and I are putting out. The content will pick up as we get closer to spring training.

But you are correct, Todd has taken this one step further by putting his name out there with a weekly "column" or "blog" or whatever you want to call it. He's competing in the event and still not afraid to throw out his ideas and strategies. That's definitely leading the charge and at last count I saw him signed up for all FOUR NFBC live drafts plus satellite leagues. I hope in return you see what kind of insight he provides during his night job at www.fantasybaseball.com and jump over there as well. It's a win-win for both of us.

I trust that when the other members of the Content Panel have their MySpace sites set up, they'll contribute in the same way!

Moneymaker · Post by **Moneymaker** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:10 pm

The same goes for the content panel, Greg. They are doing work for you and you are compensating them. Isn't that a conflict of interest?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:18 pm

Originally posted by Moneymaker:

The same goes for the content panel, Greg. They are doing work for you and you are compensating them. Isn't that a conflict of interest? compensation ?? you serious ??. I have to beat out 14 top nfbc players to get the right to face the same guys again to win any $. I would do this gratis anyway. What exactly is the conflict of interest anyway ?

Q

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:34 pm

Originally posted by Moneymaker:

Greg, could you please speak to this issue?

Isn't it a conflict of interest for someone to work for you and compete in the contest? I am on the panel but was unaware I worked for Greg? Moneymaker please explain.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Jan 17, 2007 3:30 am

TODD, i for one have respect for your views, didnt realize the nfbc hasnt been that kind,did you do other contests last year and how did you do.I like the guys who play , like yourself and nate r.Not thrilled with mathew berry, he played one year in the nfbc , and flat out quit.I cant stand that because it effects others.I do watch your drafts and keep an eye on you and hope you have a better season.

QUESTION, after Utley there isnt a top 2nd baseman, which one's do you like , say after the 10th round.

A couple i like , and your thoughts on these guys, plus yours.Cantu, Kinsler,and Hudson.THANKS , and i enjoy some real fantasy baseball talk.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Jan 17, 2007 4:04 am

Thanks Eddie -- I'll talk a little about my NFBC trials and tribulations in next Monday's piece.

As for second baseman, I suppose it depends upon one's definition of top, but based on early drafts, I am higher on Brian Roberts than most. Last year was an off year and he still managed 10 HR and set a career high in SB. The other counting stats and BA were down based on an injury riddled first half. The guy who once hit 18 flukey HR had another 9 flukes leave the yard the second half of last season. I'll take a near .300 BA, 13-16 HR and 30-35 SB from my 2B anytime. I'd take him in the 4th without blinking an eye. Third? Probably not, unless it was late and I knew I would get someone I wanted with the comeback pick in the 4th.

I hope people understand that I need to respect the rights of people who pay for my opinions at www.FantasyBaseball.com so I can't share EVERYTHING, that said, I am concerned about Cantu because he is still finding a position and is not the most disciplined player, Kinsler will probably be undervalued due to a few more steals that he will likely get that people don't realize and I really like Hudson. I have a totally anecdotal theory that eventually, great defensive players with outstanding hand-eye coordination have that skill positively affect them at the plate. Again, it is all anecdotal, and you can name great fielders who never learned to hit, but some examples are Ozzie Smith, Omar Vizquel and Jack Wilson.

Schwartzstops · Post by **Schwartzstops** » Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:29 am

Todd, thanks for the shoutout! Although, my biggest fear going into NFBC '07 is that we'll go from 6th in the country to 206th, undermining any "fantasy expert juice" I may have earned by doing well last season.

Good luck to everyone, looking forward to NFBC '07.

-- Cory Schwartz, MLB.com

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jan 17, 2007 8:47 am

Originally posted by Schwartzstops:

Todd, thanks for the shoutout! Although, my biggest fear going into NFBC '07 is that we'll go from 6th in the country to 206th, undermining any "fantasy expert juice" I may have earned by doing well last season.

Good luck to everyone, looking forward to NFBC '07.

-- Cory Schwartz, MLB.com Cory, great job last year. You obviously didn't have Klayman as a co-manager on that team!!

Now that could take you from 6th to 206th!!

Great job and best of luck again this year.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jan 17, 2007 8:49 am

Originally posted by Moneymaker:

The same goes for the content panel, Greg. They are doing work for you and you are compensating them. Isn't that a conflict of interest? Sorry, no compensation here for these 15 volunteers. Hopefully they will help to keep the Message Boards alive and well during the off-season and throughout the season, which is well worth my investment in a $500-winner-take-all for a 2008 satellite league. If not, then it was a promotional effort that I tried and failed. But I think this has some potential and in time I think you and others will see that. Give it time, my friend, give it time.

Moneymaker · Post by **Moneymaker** » Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:35 am

Understood.

I didn't want to have to report you to the FSTA.

I'll deal with Zola when I see him in Tampa.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:39 am

Originally posted by Moneymaker:

Understood.

I didn't want to have to report you to the FSTA.

I'll deal with Zola when I see him in Tampa. Sorry to disappoint you, but Todd will be drafting in Las Vegas

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Jan 17, 2007 10:02 am

Sorry Money, back to Sin City for me.

As for "so-called" compensation, I tried to bargain for being allowed to use a laptop at the drafts but was denied.

So instead, I'm considering losing some weight and asking Greg to pass me off as Meatloaf for the weekend.

Dak · Post by **Dak** » Thu Jan 18, 2007 2:15 am

How do you like your "Risky Business" team? Accomplish your goal? How was draft as whole? Any intial favorites in league?