Revere VS Ellsbury

[ChipChopChip]

Who would you rather have on your team?

Revere is going around the 95th overall pick and Ellsbury is going around 100th.

I see Revere hitting 290-300 range with 80 runs scored, 4 bombs, 50 RBI, and 30-35 SB's
I see Ellsbury hitting 265-275 range with 90 runs scored, 12 bombs, 65 RBI and 30-35 SB's

I am a little worried about both players.
Revere could lose playing time to Pompey. In my mind I think Pompey is a real threat to his playing time.
Ellsbury will probably lose playing time to injury.

If I have to pick my poison for speed I am more likely to gamble that Ellsbury can stay heathly.

[Bronx Yankees]

I think it depends on what your team needs. If there is a strong need for SBs, go Revere. If you want SBs but don't want a complete Judy, then Ellsbury would be the pick. I think your projection of SBs for Ellsbury is too optimistic.

I tend to think Revere is underrated. His better comp might be Billy Hamilton. Revere probably will wind up with fewer SBs, but his BA will be much higher and he'll likely score more runs than Hamilton (and do so at a discount in terms of where he's picked). Pompey may turn out to be a good player, but he hasn't shown he can hit at the major league level. He could steal some time from Revere, but I doubt it will be significant absent injury. Revere gives you nothing in terms of HR and is an RBI liability for an OF. That being noted, he is strong in the other three categories. He consistently hits in the .290-.300 range, which is more valuable than it was five years ago. With health, he could score 100+ Runs atop the best lineup in baseball. He also is very capable of putting up 40+ SBs (and that skill is much more valuable these days as total SBs decline).

Ellsbury's health is a huge red flag. He is getting older and the SBs may be under 30 even with health (and less without health). He doesn't face any competition for playing time like Revere might, so the only threat to ABs are health. Although I think Revere frequently is underrated, I am a little surprised Ellsbury has fallen so much in the early drafts. If he is healthy throughout Spring Training, looking good and maybe running a little, I could see him going several rounds higher come the live drafts. I think Ellsbury is the better player, but I know that if I get through Round 5-6 or so and feel very light on SBs, Revere is one of the next guys I tend to target.

Interesting question.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

With health, he could score 100+ Runs

Since 2010, only two players have scored 100 runs without double digit homers.
Jose Reyes, 7 in 2011
Austin Jackson, 4, 2010

Can't we just say 90+ runs

[Bronx Yankees]

Just remembered that I took Revere in the fast draft we completed recently. Drafting from Slot #13, my first six picks were: McCutchen, Cabrera, Kluber, Frazier, Carpenter and Kinsler. At that point, I felt light on SBs. I hope that McCutchen, Frazier and Kinsler hit double-digit SBs, but, even if they do, all probably will be in the low double-digits. Also, I knew who I wanted in the next (8th) round, and he is not a real source of SBs. Also, if I went hitter, hitter in Rounds 7 and 8, that would leave me with only one pitcher (Kluber) in the first eight rounds. Thus, knowing I wanted a power hitter in Round 8, and realizing I was going to have to turn hard to pitching (starters and relievers) over at least the next few rounds (eight of my next 12 picks were pitchers), I felt a need to grab a guy like Revere to stay competitive in SBs. I couldn't recall, but I see now that Ellsbury was available to me when I took Revere, although to be perfectly honest, I don't recall seriously considering him (and maybe I should have). We'll see how things work out, but having recently taken Revere, I thought I'd give my two cents on why I did so in that particular draft.

Mike

[ChipChopChip]

I agree that I am optimistic on my Ellsbury range. Revere set a high last year with 84 runs scored. He has consistently walked at a rate of under 5% so going much over 85 runs seems too optimistic. I don't like it that Revere fell 18 SB's from the year before either.

[Bronx Yankees]

With health, he could score 100+ Runs

Since 2010, only two players have scored 100 runs without double digit homers.
Jose Reyes, 7 in 2011
Austin Jackson, 4, 2010

Can't we just say 90+ runs

Yeah, that's probably fair. But ... if there's any lineup where a Judy could score 100 runs, it's probably Toronto's lineup. After all, hitting in front of Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion and Tulowitzki does not suck!

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Toronto was also in the second half of teams attemting stolen bases.
They're a slugging team first.

[DOUGHBOYS]

With health, he could score 100+ Runs

Since 2010, only two players have scored 100 runs without double digit homers.
Jose Reyes, 7 in 2011
Austin Jackson, 4, 2010

Can't we just say 90+ runs

Yeah, that's probably fair. But ... if there's any lineup where a Judy could score 100 runs, it's probably Toronto's lineup. After all, hitting in front of Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion and Tulowitzki does not suck!

Mike

Yes, that is assuming health for all of them and that Revere, indeed, leads off all year.

[Bronx Yankees]

I agree that I am optimistic on my Ellsbury range. Revere set a high last year with 84 runs scored. He has consistently walked at a rate of under 5% so going much over 85 runs seems too optimistic. I don't like it that Revere fell 18 SB's from the year before either.

Maybe, although it might just be related to changing teams mid-season. He wound up with 31 SBs last year. If that is the line for this year, I'm betting on Over (maybe to my detriment).

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Donaldson hitting second next year does not bode well for Revere to steal a lot of bases...
A catch-22