What Was The Reason For HR Spike In 2015?

[Greg Ambrosius]

While everyone is now chasing Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball, did anyone notice the unbelievable power spike in Major League Baseball last year? And does anyone know where it came from?

In 2014, MLB had only 4,186 Home Runs, its lowest total since the shortened season of 1995 and the lowest for a full season since 1993. But in 2015, there were 4,909 Home Runs, up 17.3 percent from the year before. It was the highest total since 2012 when 4,934 Home Runs were hit and the third highest total since 2008.

So what is the reason for the huge power spike? In 2014, Nelson Cruz was the only hitter with 40 home runs. Last year nine hitters had 40 or more homers. The list included: Chris Davis 47, Cruz 44, Nolan Arenado 42, Bryce Harper 42, Mike Trout 41, Josh Donaldson 41, Albert Pujols 40, Jose Bautista 40 and Carlos Gonzalez 40. What the hell happened?

Here's a great take by Rob Neyer. Could it be the baseballs?

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/home ... ies-121815

Here's one more for ya concerning Home Runs:

Baseball-Reference.com listed the home run totals at every major league ballpark in 2015. Camden Yards ranked first with 222. Yankee Stadium was second with 219, followed by Rogers Centre (203), Coors Field (202), Minute Maid Park (198), Miller Park (189), Great American Ballpark (183), Safeco Field (180), Globe Life Park (177), Tropicana Field (174), Wrigley Field and Citizens Bank Park (171), Fenway Park (167), Petco Park and Dodger Stadium (166), Target Field, Citi Field and Angel Stadium of Anaheim (164), Nationals Park (163), U.S. Cellular Field (157), Chase Field (155), Comerica Park (153), Progressive Field (149), O.co Coliseum (139), PNC Park and Kauffman Stadium (130), Busch Stadium (120), Turner Field (113), Marlins Park (111) and AT&T Park (109).

[COZ]

I think, my friend, the HR Spike can be attributed to a certain phenomenon known in Chicago simply as Da Schwarber. (Super Fan voice)

Sincerely,

Bob Swerski, Todd O'Connor, & Carl Wollarski

[BK METS]

I personally believe it is that there are more 95+ MPH fastball pitchers in the majors than ever before and it's simply, the faster the ball is thrown, the farther it goes.

[whale4evr]

Umm, maybe the juicers are ahead of the testers again?

[Yah Mule]

The numbers seem to suggest 2014 was more of an outlier than anything else.

[Vander]

For me the answer is simple. More than ever players swing from the heels on every pitch no matter what. No thought as to gee I have 2 strikes and maybe I should cut down on my swing. Or gee all I have to do is put the ball in the outfield and that guy on 3rd scores. Nope swing for the 3 run homer even when we only need 1 run. I'll be a free agent some day and my agent says he can get me more money if I hit a lot of homers. Winning baseball? Huh! That's for suckers. Swing as hard as you can. Mr Boros is now in control.

[DOUGHBOYS]

For me the answer is simple. More than ever players swing from the heels on every pitch no matter what. No thought as to gee I have 2 strikes and maybe I should cut down on my swing. Or gee all I have to do is put the ball in the outfield and that guy on 3rd scores. Nope swing for the 3 run homer even when we only need 1 run. I'll be a free agent some day and my agent says he can get me more money if I hit a lot of homers. Winning baseball? Huh! That's for suckers. Swing as hard as you can. Mr Boros is now in control.

Here Here!
Let the Sabrs worry about my ratios and total strike outs.
Home runs are what I get paid for. How and when I get those home runs is secondary to my pay check!

On a related note, I take some satisfaction when players like Hanley or Puig do the bat flip, jog down to first base, only to see that their 'no doubter' has been caught at the fence.

[Gekko]

gloBULL warming

[KJ Duke]

I personally believe it is that there are more 95+ MPH fastball pitchers in the majors than ever before and it's simply, the faster the ball is thrown, the farther it goes.

I recall seeing something a while back that showed, counter-intuitively, the longest home runs actually come on slower pitches. Presumably because they're easier to square up.

[COZ]

I personally believe it is that there are more 95+ MPH fastball pitchers in the majors than ever before and it's simply, the faster the ball is thrown, the farther it goes.

I recall seeing something a while back that showed, counter-intuitively, the longest home runs actually come on slower pitches. Presumably because they're easier to square up.

Correct. http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ml ... /72624244/

COZ

[rickerbockerNFBC]

For me the answer is simple. More than ever players swing from the heels on every pitch no matter what. No thought as to gee I have 2 strikes and maybe I should cut down on my swing. Or gee all I have to do is put the ball in the outfield and that guy on 3rd scores. Nope swing for the 3 run homer even when we only need 1 run. I'll be a free agent some day and my agent says he can get me more money if I hit a lot of homers. Winning baseball? Huh! That's for suckers. Swing as hard as you can. Mr Boros is now in control.

Kind of hard to say that is the answer when 2014's numbers were so low. Boras wasn't in control in 2014, but all of the sudden gained the control in 2015???? Doesn't make sense.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Why does there have to be a reason?

[Edwards Kings]

The numbers seem to suggest 2014 was more of an outlier than anything else.

Yes. 2014 was an the difference.

Taking eight of the past nine years (excluding 2014), teams averaged about 161 HR per team. Over those eight years, the delta to the average was a range from -5.5% to +4.6%. 2015 was only a 1.9% delta over that eight year average. Statistically (and the numbers NEVER lie ) not very important.

In 2016, there will be between 4,600 and 4,900 HR hit (95% probability).

And if you are a Cubs fan 4,400 of those HR will be hit by Bryant and Schwarber.