Talking Baseball Players

[DOUGHBOYS]

Best hijack EVER, Wayne.
There are folks like Bob Costas and others who poo poo fantasy baseball. They say that we bastardize the game, consuming only the numbers while ignoring the nuances of the game.
They forget that all of us were baseball fans long before fantasy baseball addicts.
The nuances are not lost on us. We enjoy high school, College, and minor league games as well as following 'our hitters'.
Baseball is big enough and expansive enough to allow many factions.

Baseball is important to an 83 year old woman I know in Texas who lives and dies with the Rangers. The construction fellow who has followed the Mets since he was a kid, does not check his phone to see how his Mets did, looking forward to the recorded game at home that night. There is nothing that brings wonderment to a child as the first time that kid walks into a baseball stadium. A sea of green cut into a baseball field shape that television never prepares that child for.
Baseball is easy to fall in love with. Marriage, easy. Divorce, unthinkable.

Ok, let's get back to this thread...
Wayne, let's talk about Atlanta.
Two questions...

1. Does Vizcaino hold his Closer job all year?

2. Fantasy/wise, who is hurt more in the Atlanta rebuilding process this year, Freddie Freeman or Julio Teheran?

[Donacion]

Dan what are your thoughts on Pirates this year. Expectations are soft this year. They have a lot of youngsters bubbling up, if Glasnow the real deal he's up early. Thoughts on Polanco I think he is the most important Pirate this year. Reminds me of Heyward.

[NorCalAtlFan]

Ok, let's get back to this thread...
Wayne, let's talk about Atlanta.
Two questions...

1. Does Vizcaino hold his Closer job all year?

2. Fantasy/wise, who is hurt more in the Atlanta rebuilding process this year, Freddie Freeman or Julio Teheran?

1) no. they'll want to give grilli or even johnson some saves to flip them is my guess
2) teheran. atlanta's offense is arguably better than last years version(i know, bad is bad). the defense is worse. as an atlanta fan, i plan on having zero shares of teheran.

[DOUGHBOYS]

There is no team in baseball that does not help themselves like the Pirates. How long has it been since they've had a real first baseman?
This year, they'll have Jaso, Morse, Rogers, SRodriguez, and Bell at first base.
Their hope is that Rogers or Bell breaks out.
But a platoon of Jaso and everybody else is probably what happens.
With Kang out to start the season, their production at the corners will probably be among the worst in baseball.

That said, the Pirates have had 'success' in being the first team ousted from the playoffs the last two years.
Their coaching staff takes a backseat to nobody. Ray Searage has emerged with Hickey from Tampa and Maddux from Texas as being one of the best pitching coaches in baseball. It seems every year, a reclamation project has a big year as a pitcher for them.

Most impressive about the Pirates last year was that they showed they can win without a fully healthy Andrew McCutchen. Their lineup a little like the Royals in that Marte, or Polanco, or Kahn, or Harrison, or Walker could hurt you and win a ball game for the Pirates.

BUT, we have to go back to where the Pirates don't help themselves. They lost Alvarez and Walker and replaced them with...nobody really.
They went cheap at first base and will move the depth of Harrison to second base.
The Pirates window has been open for the last two years, they are just not climbing through. This team should feel like they're on the edge of greatness. Instead, attrition will most likely have them fading this year.

As for Polanco, I think he has the capability of being a first round pick in fantasy baseball. He has the speed and power to lock that up. I can see him having a Ellsburian type year. But, like the Pirates themselves, he seems to hold himself back.
As if unrealizing just how good he can be. He's the type of guy that can win many a game with his skills.
I'd love to see that come to fruition.

[NorCalAtlFan]

what does that mean, "he holds himself back." polanco could be better but chooses not to?

[DOUGHBOYS]

what does that mean, "he holds himself back." polanco could be better but chooses not to?

Whenever I see him, he plays timid. Like there is a ball of talent that wants to jump out.
To a lesser extent (talent/wise), Emilio Bonafacio played the same way until Jack McKeon took over managing the Marlins and told Bonafacio that he was the leadoff man and wanted him to be the spark plug.
Bonafacio took it to heart and had his best years under McKeon.
I don't know if it's as simple as that with Polanco.
Polanco needs some kind of spark. As is, he's a spark plug with no juice.

[Edwards Kings]

Best hijack EVER, Wayne.
Wayne, let's talk about Atlanta.
Two questions...

1. Does Vizcaino hold his Closer job all year?

2. Fantasy/wise, who is hurt more in the Atlanta rebuilding process this year, Freddie Freeman or Julio Teheran?

I agree. Atlanta has three potential set-up men for other teams. As to who gets the ball out of the gate, spring training will of course tell, but my guess is Grilli (very attractive club option of $3M with a $250K buyout for 2017), then Vizcaino (2017 will be his second arbitration year, so should be pretty cheap too). Third in line will not be Johnson (sucked so bad in LA after the trade that CAN'T just be change in scenery). Simmons or Withrow would be my guess as to who is next.

When comparing Freddie 2016 vs Freddie 2017, the rebuilding will not hurt (more). Don't forget Pierzynski hit fourth behind him much of last year, so he cannot get any less protection if I were hitting cleanup. RBIs may be up with Inciarte (would not be surprised if he stayed a Brave), Aybar, and Markakis ahead of him, which is better than the combos from last year. I can now see the Braves trading Freddie (i.e. his salary goes up by $8.5m next year) and there are a few teams who could use him.

While I agree the Braves defense is worse for not having Simmons at short, Teheran is now and will be in 2016 his own worst enemy. Has good swing-and-miss stuff, but has to be over the plate (or at least closer to the plate) more so hitters can't sit back and wait for favorable counts. May not be a source of wins, but he can be a very solid contributor for ERA, WHIP and K's if he gets back under 2.5 BB per nine. I will say this about Teheran. Last year, when up in the count, he could not seem to finish the batter off (i.e. making the batter hit Teheran's pitch of choice or strike the batter out). Too many batters were able to Votto the count to get a walk.

[Edwards Kings]

More on the Braves. What a rebuild! They have only eight players under contract for 2017 with Grilli ($3m club option) and two (Swisher and Bourn) predicated on passing a physical ( ) and getting 550 2016 AB (Right! That is gonna happen!). So realistically, the Braves only have about $47m in salaries tied up with $21m of that on Freeman IF they hold onto him. Currently on two players (Vizcaino and Withrow) are in their second year of arbitration and five (Inciarte, Lavarnway, Casey Kelly, Paco Rodriguez and Ian Krol) going into their first arbitration year.

What does that mean? Either 2017 or 2018 the Brave will have have a BUNCH of room to be players in the FA market. Could make it interesting IF they stay away from Melvin Upton types. Just sayin....

[Bronx Yankees]

There is no team in baseball that does not help themselves like the Pirates. How long has it been since they've had a real first baseman?
This year, they'll have Jaso, Morse, Rogers, SRodriguez, and Bell at first base.
Their hope is that Rogers or Bell breaks out.
But a platoon of Jaso and everybody else is probably what happens.
With Kang out to start the season, their production at the corners will probably be among the worst in baseball.

That said, the Pirates have had 'success' in being the first team ousted from the playoffs the last two years.
Their coaching staff takes a backseat to nobody. Ray Searage has emerged with Hickey from Tampa and Maddux from Texas as being one of the best pitching coaches in baseball. It seems every year, a reclamation project has a big year as a pitcher for them.

Most impressive about the Pirates last year was that they showed they can win without a fully healthy Andrew McCutchen. Their lineup a little like the Royals in that Marte, or Polanco, or Kahn, or Harrison, or Walker could hurt you and win a ball game for the Pirates.

BUT, we have to go back to where the Pirates don't help themselves. They lost Alvarez and Walker and replaced them with...nobody really.
They went cheap at first base and will move the depth of Harrison to second base.
The Pirates window has been open for the last two years, they are just not climbing through. This team should feel like they're on the edge of greatness. Instead, attrition will most likely have them fading this year.

As for Polanco, I think he has the capability of being a first round pick in fantasy baseball. He has the speed and power to lock that up. I can see him having a Ellsburian type year. But, like the Pirates themselves, he seems to hold himself back.
As if unrealizing just how good he can be. He's the type of guy that can win many a game with his skills.
I'd love to see that come to fruition.

Just wanted to pile on to Dan's excellent response here. While I still expect the Pirates to be good, once again the ownership and/or front office has done the team a real disservice ... again.

The Pirates have some excellent players, and the best on the team are young and in or near their primes. They have been a wildcard team for three years in a row and last year they had the second best record in all of baseball. They are close, and arguably just need a little help to get over the top. Unfortunately for Pirates fans, no such help is forthcoming.

Take a look at this off-season. They lost due to free agency, trade or retirement: SP Burnett, SP Happ, 1B Alvarez, 2B Walker, and 3B A. Ramirez. Starting SS Kang is expected to miss the beginning of the season. And who have the Pirates signed to fill those holes? SP Niese and SP Vogelsong, 1B(?) Jaso, and 1B S. Rodriguez. Ugh! The starting rotation of Cole, Liriano, Niese, Vogelsong and Locke is not going to cut it no matter how great a pitching coach they have. Despite excellent fan support, the Pirates refused to sign one meaningful free agent this off-season. Very disappointing.

Mike

[Bronx Yankees]

Nice having a thread talking about real baseball players.

Here's one for you, Dan (and others). You're in the 3rd round of a draft and need/want power. Three players that seem to fit the bill are available: J.D. Martinez, Yoenis Cespedes, and Nelson Cruz. Who do you pick and why? (In the interests of full disclosure, I have them ranked Martinez, Cespedes and then Cruz.)

Thanks,
Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Nice having a thread talking about real baseball players.

Here's one for you, Dan (and others). You're in the 3rd round of a draft and need/want power. Three players that seem to fit the bill are available: J.D. Martinez, Yoenis Cespedes, and Nelson Cruz. Who do you pick and why? (In the interests of full disclosure, I have them ranked Martinez, Cespedes and then Cruz.)

Thanks,
Mike

Excellent question, Mike.
I have drafted all three of these players.
I don't really follow a set ranking with them. A lot depends on who my first two choices are and what my plan is for further down the road.
I wouldn't 'fade' any of these players in thinking they would come back to me in the fourth. Although Cespedes has slipped to the fourth round in some drafts, I believe that most of those fourth round drafters selected him before he found a landing spot at Citi.

Raw power, I feel that Cruz is the man. And, he has shed his durability issues during the last few years.
Cespedes could offer a few stolen bases and score more runs in being a better base runner.
Martinez is still perceived as to not yet hitting his ceiling. He is also in a lineup with an abundance of ball smackers.
If looking for power, these three are all your answer.
It's just a matter of personal preference or plan for your roster.

And on another note, what about Todd Frazier.
His adp took a leap when traded to the White Sox. I really don't understand why.
He is going from a good hitters park to a good hitters park.
From a lefty power lineup to a righty power lineup.
From a league where he knows pitchers to a league where he is more unfamiliar with pitchers.
I would have thought that Frazier would keep his adp, instead it rose.
Somebody will have to tell me why.

I also see Dellin Betances being taken before Andrew Miller in a lot of drafts.
Even with Aroldis Chapman facing a possible suspension.
Is the feeling that Betances will see those Save opportunities?
Or that Betances is just a better guy to have as a seventh starter some weeks?
Let me know.

[Donacion]

Tom Verducci recently posted his list of pitchers who are at risk for injury. He listed 5 pitchers Syndergaard, McCullers, Severino, Carlos Martinez and Tyler Duffy. Syndergaard from this list would give me the most pause. In AAA he missed some time with a forearm strain. March and April seem to be Tommy John season every year. Anybody factor in these risks especially for the young guys.

[Bronx Yankees]

Hi, Dan. It's a tough call among those power hitters. I recently got Cruz in the fourth round of a draft, but I agree that he rarely gets past the third round. I've never been a huge Cruz fan and was shocked with the numbers he put up last year, in his late 30s, in Seattle. I don't have the faith in him to repeat that I do in Martinez or Cespedes, but who knows?

Not sure I totally agree re Todd Frazier. I do agree that the move from the Reds to the White Sox seems neutral. Both have hitters parks, both lineups have some decent hitters and some weak bats. The White Sox will be better this year, although I'm not sure the move is a big plus for Frazier (but it is not a negative either). BUT, I think Frazier is moving up this year generally because he has solidified upswings in two categories. In 2012 and 2013, he had 19 HR. In 2014, he had 29 HR, a big jump. Folks didn't know if that was real. In 2015, he hit 35 HR. The power is now seen as legit. In 2012 and 2013, Frazier had 3 and 6 SB. Hardly noticeable. In 2014, he had 20 SB. It came out of nowhere. Most did not believe it. In 2015, he had 13 SB. While a decline from 2014, he now is seen as the rare 3B who can get you double-digit SBs, an attractive trait. Thus, I kind of think he is going around the right time, irrespective of whether he plays for the White Sox or the Reds. I'm not sure if any rise in ADP really is due to the trade or folks starting to value him differently as they started prepping. Part of it also may be due to perceived scarcity in that while Frazier is seen as inferior to the four elite 3B, he also is seen as clearly above the next few 3B.

In terms of Betances v. Miller, I think it is a tough call. As a Yankees fan who sees them a lot, I can say both truly are elite. Both could/would be top five closers if they held the role. In fact, I'd say they are the two best non-closers going into the season and should be drafted in the teens. I think most believe that Chapman will not miss much time. Unlike Reyes, he is not being charged with a crime. There is no real proof and, although the reports don't sound great (no one I know shoots off a gun a bunch of times in their own house or garage, but it apparently is not a crime), it is tough to see a huge suspension when no charges are being pursued. Thus, I'd say most expect Chapman to be the closer for all or almost all of the season. I would say that if Chapman is suspended or gets hurt, Miller is most likely to get saves because he held the job last year and did great. BUT, if you are drafting one of them to be a 7th starter, possibly sacrificing some wins for a great ERA and WHIP, then I think Betances is the better bet. For whatever reason, Girardi will let Betanes get 4-5 outs sometimes while Miller usually gets 3 outs. Last year: Betances had 131 Ks in 84 IP while Miller had 100 Ks in 61.2 IP (he missed a month or so). Miller has an injury history that Betances lacks. If you put aside saves, I'd say Betances is the better choice for a high K/great ratios non-closer RP.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

I tend to agree with you on Betances/Miller.
Miller is a man without a category. I believe the Yankees coddle him because of past history. Probably the wise thing.
But, limiting the innings of a relief pitcher tends to put off fantasy drafters.
Now that he is not the Closer, he is merely a Closer in Waiting. A damned good CIW, but still a CIW.
Girardi has made no bones about how much he loves Betances.
If there is a relief pitcher built to be a fantasy number seven starter, it's Betances.

I agree that if Chapman were to miss time that Miller gets the gig. A Closer who only pitches the ninth inning is easy to limit innings.
Betances is the reliever that pitches against the important outs, whether it is one, two, three, four, five, or six outs.

Knowing it would never happen, I want a trade to happen if only for my own entertainment.
I would love to see Andrew Miller traded to the Cubs for Javier Baez.
The Cubs could really use that scary guy at the back of their bullpen.
And I'd just love to see Baez and all the stories from the Yankees that having a guy like Baez would bring.
A fantasy.

[Captain Hook]

One thing about drafting the Yankees bullpen guys is that Miller does have some health issues AND Betances will have more value than Miller absent any saves because of the volume of extra strikeouts

[DOUGHBOYS]

Let's talk about first basemen.
To me, this year, first base is the unsexiest position in fantasy baseball. While other positions are getting breast enhancements, first base is going for reductions.
Joe Mauer was a fourth or fifth round choice as a catcher. Put him at first base and we can look for him after the twentieth round.
Ryan Zimmerman has lost third base and Outfield eligibility. And with it, he has lost a lot of love. Previous, the question with Zimmerman concerned his health. Now, a pick and pray as a corner or Utility. And if he flops health/wise again this year, he may see bench time or free agent status next year. He is closer to irrelevance, than relevance.
Carlos Santana has gone from Catcher to 3B to 1B and his team would love to see him become their DH. A DH in fantasy is, simply put, a pain in the ass. Like Mauer, Santana has gone from a fifth round choice to an afterthought.
Fantasy baseball drafters seem to expect more from Santana each year (probably listening to the obp evangelists too much) and Santana seems to produce less.

First basemen, in general, have had their fantasy asses handed to them by third basemen this year. The first round has become Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo vs. Manny Machado and Kris Bryant and Josh Donaldson and Nolan Arenado.
First base has become Miguel Cabrera-like, losing power.
Goldy is the perfect fantasy player. He's durable. Hits with power and for average. Doesn't look for a walk in an rbi situation and will steal a base whenever the opportunity presents itself.
Several drafters are holding on to Miggy. Thinking he can regain the power lost over the last two seasons. Miggy had 10 straight seasons of 26 homers or more. Then 25. Then 18.
That injury lingered last year. It was obvious.
Will he come back completely shed of it this year?
I don't know.
For me, it's tough to risk that high of a pick, not knowing the answer.
And don't expect much help in Spring Training in watching Miggy. Miggy has never played full out during Spring.
Especially, that won't change this year.

More than any player in baseball, I love watching Anthony Rizzo hit above any hitter. It is marvelous how he utilizes his hands. It is almost as if he is giving us a look/see into his pitch recognition. I reccommed slowing down his at bats frame by frame, especially if a little leager is in your household.
If it weren't for Rizzo's affection for standing on top of the plate inviting broken bones with hbp, I would draft him more.
If health was a guarantee, for me, he would join Goldy as being drafted before the Front Four third basemen.
The following 1B are the brutes. Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Davis, and Jose Abreu.
There are different determinations on these three.
Encarnacion is in the best lineup and has the longest track record. Davis comforted in going back to his old team and ball park. Abreu, the most polished hitter of the three.

Adrian Gonzalez is steady. Hosmer is a bee in a hive of a lineup.
The 'iffers' of Pujols, Freeman, and Belt follow.
Pujols-health, Freeman-lineup, Belt-ball park.

First base used to be a fantasy drafter's warm pillow. This year, that pillow has turned cold and lumpy.
In past year's we saw a lot of durability with 'for sure' numbers. This year, possible land mines everywhere.
I skipped a certain first bseman. Plays for the Cincinnati Reds.
If you're reader, you know that he is taken at too high of a price for my liking. If you like him, draft him!
That's the way drafts should work!
And who knows, I could be completely wrong and he can once again catapult into the top tier of first basemen next year.
His competition seems to be dwindling.

[KJ Duke]

I read an article at BBE discussing geographic realignment. A great idea to increase regional rivalries and cut down on travel. Tradition aside, I liked it. But if doing a one-time major realignment I think you want to address another needed "fix", separating major market and mid-market teams. The NL and AL are increasingly becoming the same league (no-DH seems to have a time-clock on it now), so why even have two separate leagues?

This is a good reason to keep them separate; re-assemble the American League as the "major-market" league, and the National League as a "mid-market" league. The AL is already "flashier" with it's DH and swing for the fences attitude while the NL is the working-class small-ball league, at least by reputation even if all teams don't fit properly. In addition to a more level playing field/better competition by putting high-revenue and low-revenue teams together in separate leagues, the World Series would take on greater meaning and interest each season with an annual David vs Goliath World Series.

Here's my re-alignment plan ▬

[Edwards Kings]

Yuck! One commuter league while the rest still have to travel basically the depth of the country...no thank you.

[Edwards Kings]

Rollins to the ChiSox. Wither thou go-est, Ian Desmond?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Yuck! One commuter league while the rest still have to travel basically the depth of the country...no thank you.

It would never work. As Wayne alluded to, the East in one league would become a 'train ride league', while most others are leaving time zones or traveling greater distances.
It also presumes the status quo.
If Trump were to lose the Presidential bid and buy a Major League team in Tampa.
He would go all Steinbrenner on other teams and Tampa wouldn't belong.

PS- Plus Marilyn Monroe is a bonus on any post....

[Bronx Yankees]

Rollins to the ChiSox. Wither thou go-est, Ian Desmond?

My hunch is the Tampa Bay Rays. He would succeed Asdrubal Cabrera, another guy that the financially-challenged Rays bought on the low side. Your point, however, is well taken. Mr. Desmond's options are running thin. I wonder what he is seeking? Teams might be trying to take advantage of his predicament and get him absurdly cheap or want him for more than a year when I'm sure he'd prefer a one-year pillow contract. I do not think anybody lost more money playing baseball last year than Ian Desmond.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Rollins to the ChiSox. Wither thou go-est, Ian Desmond?

My hunch is the Tampa Bay Rays. He would succeed Asdrubal Cabrera, another guy that the financially-challenged Rays bought on the low side. Your point, however, is well taken. Mr. Desmond's options are running thin. I wonder what he is seeking? Teams might be trying to take advantage of his predicament and get him absurdly cheap or want him for more than a year when I'm sure he'd prefer a one-year pillow contract. I do not think anybody lost more money playing baseball last year than Ian Desmond.

Mike

I'm going to make two stabs. Admittedly, both don't make much sense on the surface.

1. Colorado. Pillow contract. Where else to his better to have a one year contract?
The Rockies are almost going out of the way to make Jose Reyes feel uncomfortable and almost unwelcome.
If Reyes never played another inning for the Rox, it would be no surprise to me.

2. Los Angeles Angels. I know, I know. The Angels have defensive genius, Andrelton Simmons.
What they don't have, is a true hitter at second base, third base, and left field. Desmond's future is not at shortstop.
He hits well enough to be a corner in the infield and outfield.

The problem for the Rockies, Angels, and especially for Desmond is the first round pick attached to him.

Two things that I hope is alleviated during the next agreement between MLB and its players is the elimination of a first round pick attached to a free agent and the service time for players, forcing (inviting) teams not to roster rookies till a month or two into the season.

[Captain Hook]

Well right about the pillow contract - one year for $8 million BUT to the Texas Rangers where presumably Desmond will be the new left fielder (then perhaps super utility player IF Josh Hamilton can actually get back on the field)

[DOUGHBOYS]

Yeah, it's a good buy for the Rangers, Perry.
The Astros/Rangers matchups ought to provide plenty of offensive scoring.
The Rangers have age and injury risk everywhere. Desmond will fill the Super U well.
I can see Desmond having at least three/positionality on his fantasy resume next season.
Are the Angels asleep at the wheel?

[Bronx Yankees]

Yes. The Angels are asleep at the wheel. They seem intent on wasting Mike Trout's prime (or almost prime). I understand they are concerned about the luxury tax. But, I don't get it. Why pay a gazillion dollars to Pujols, Trout and Josh Hamilton if you can't put at least a decent team around them? (Will we look back on the Pujols and Hamilton contracts as two of the worst ever?) Honestly, I've dropped Trout from first to second to third in my personal rankings and a further drop is under consideration. Why would any team pitch to him? Who is going to drive him in when he gets on base? I'll keep watching but I'm hoping for their fans' and Trout's sake that they do something about LF (and 2B).

Mike