Trout vs Goldy vs Harper

[Winston's Empire]

I just found out I will be drafting 3rd Overall in my first draft of the year, the 1000 SLOW. Interesting to look at these 3 players and hoping "my guy" falls to me. Lets take a look at them all.

Mike Trout - OF - 24 yrs old - Today's ADP 1.76
3 Year Averages: .303ave-109runs-34hrs-99rbis-20sbs. / Best Year of Career 2012 .326ave-129runs-30hrs-83rbis-49sbs
I don't believe Trout will ever steal 30 Bases again, but his high BA and power #'s sure look nice with 15-20 SBs!

Mike Goldschmidt - 1B - 28 yrs old - Today's ADP 2.17
3 Year Averages: .309ave-93runs-29hrs-101rbis-15sbs / Best Year of Career 2015 .321ave-103runs-33hrs-110rbis-21sbs
Goldy is just an all around STUD, who steals bases at a position usually known for slow guys who hit for a lot of power with a low BA.

Bryce Harper - OF - 23 yrs old - Todays ADP 2.81
3 Year Averages: .296ave-76runs-25hrs-63rbis-6sbs / Best Year of Career 2015 .330ave-118runs-42hrs-99rbis-6sbs
Harper showed last year, we have only just begun! The upside of 45-50 HR's with a crazy high BA is fun to think about. Obviously he is a great athlete, what if he ripped 18 SB's like he did in 2012 again? He surely is on base enough to do it with a .460 OBP last year!

Who is your guy?

[Doggy]

Cant go wrong 3rd is a great spot

[Bjs2025]

I actually think the guy you should go with isn't listed. Clayton Kershaw is far and away the most valuable player in this league setting as he is in most. I really don't understand taking anyone but him at the top.

[Winston's Empire]

I actually think the guy you should go with isn't listed. Clayton Kershaw is far and away the most valuable player in this league setting as he is in most. I really don't understand taking anyone but him at the top.

I can understand the Love for Kershaw, but I believe it is harder to get the almost guaranteed Offensive Production the Top 3 Hitters provide later in the draft. Grabbing a Top Pitcher later in the draft to go with the Top Hitter IMO is a better combo.

[ToddZ]

I can understand the Love for Kershaw, but I believe it is harder to get the almost guaranteed Offensive Production the Top 3 Hitters provide later in the draft. Grabbing a Top Pitcher later in the draft to go with the Top Hitter IMO is a better combo.

The problem with this is you're not looking at a combo to replace the offense, you have 14 hitting spots and a season's worth of roster management to make up for it.

Rankings are usually based on auction values which conventionally assume a 70/30 (or so) hitting to pitching allocation of budget. The split really should be 50/50 so a $50 Mike Trout and a $45 Clayton Kershaw is more like $38 Mike Trout and $68 Clayton Kershaw.

It's all about figuring out how to support Kershaw while spending more early picks on hitting.

[Winston's Empire]

I can understand the Love for Kershaw, but I believe it is harder to get the almost guaranteed Offensive Production the Top 3 Hitters provide later in the draft. Grabbing a Top Pitcher later in the draft to go with the Top Hitter IMO is a better combo.

The problem with this is you're not looking at a combo to replace the offense, you have 14 hitting spots and a season's worth of roster management to make up for it.

Rankings are usually based on auction values which conventionally assume a 70/30 (or so) hitting to pitching allocation of budget. The split really should be 50/50 so a $50 Mike Trout and a $45 Clayton Kershaw is more like $38 Mike Trout and $68 Clayton Kershaw.

It's all about figuring out how to support Kershaw while spending more early picks on hitting.

Darn it.... You got me thinking Zola!

[Yah Mule]

Go to Fangraphs and look at the cumulative statistics from 2012-2015, the four seasons where Mike Trout was either first or second in AL MVP voting.

10th in games played
3rd in plate appearances
4th in home runs
1st in runs (he has 457, McCutchen is second with 384)
6th in RBI (the only category where Goldie or Harper beat him. Goldie nips him 386-381)
5th in batting average (tied with Votto and Altuve)
4th in OBP
2nd in slugging percentage
11th in stolen bases (granted, he would rank more like 50th at the pace he's run the last two years)

IMO, taking anybody but Trout number one is overthinking things. No other first round option can come close to matching his durability and consistency right now.

EDIT: I take that part about unmatched consistency back. Kershaw's season to season brilliance can't be discounted, either. That said, he's fifth on my overall board behind the three guys listed and Donaldson.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 0&sort=6,d

[ToddZ]

Go to Fangraphs and look at the cumulative statistics from 2012-2015, the four seasons where Mike Trout was either first or second in AL MVP voting.

10th in games played
3rd in plate appearances
4th in home runs
1st in runs (he has 457, McCutchen is second with 384)
6th in RBI (the only category where Goldie or Harper beat him. Goldie nips him 386-381)
5th in batting average (tied with Votto and Altuve)
4th in OBP
2nd in slugging percentage
11th in stolen bases (granted, he would rank more like 50th at the pace he's run the last two years)

IMO, taking anybody but Trout number one is overthinking things. No other first round option can come close to matching his durability and consistency right now.

EDIT: I take that part about unmatched consistency back. Kershaw's season to season brilliance can't be discounted, either. That said, he's fifth on my overall board behind the three guys listed and Donaldson.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 0&sort=6,d

1st in innings...

1st in strikeouts...

1st in ERA...

1st in WHIP...

oh darn, 2nd in wins.

I think there's someone that matches, if not beats Trout.

ETA: sorry -- was typing as YM was adding his addendum.

[Yah Mule]

Yeah, I agree. I amended that right after I posted.

It's a great time to be a baseball fan.

[Edwards Kings]

No bad answer. Kershaw is certainly worthy of consideration. But to keep it simple, let's compare potential contributions by Trout and Kershaw.

Trout plus BA, plus RBI, plus HR, plus R, contributor (now) in SB. Five stars.
Kershaw plus ERA, plus WHIP, plus K, plus wins (though somewhat out of his control as he has 13 - 16 wins in five of the last seven years) and plus saves....no...wait...no saves. Four category contributor.

So, are the four categories Kershaw sets you up for worth more than the four categories Trout sets you up for (plus the SB contribution). Again, not a bad answer to be given.

Also, what offensive player(s) will be available to you that remotely compares to Trout with your second round (the 38th player chosen) compared to what arm will be available in the same slot?

Good luck.

[Winston's Empire]

No bad answer. Kershaw is certainly worthy of consideration. But to keep it simple, let's compare potential contributions by Trout and Kershaw.

Trout plus BA, plus RBI, plus HR, plus R, contributor (now) in SB. Five stars.
Kershaw plus ERA, plus WHIP, plus K, plus wins (though somewhat out of his control as he has 13 - 16 wins in five of the last seven years) and plus saves....no...wait...no saves. Four category contributor.

So, are the four categories Kershaw sets you up for worth more than the four categories Trout sets you up for (plus the SB contribution). Again, not a bad answer to be given.

Also, what offensive player(s) will be available to you that remotely compares to Trout with your second round (the 38th player chosen) compared to what arm will be available in the same slot?

Good luck.

My feelings completely. Todd makes a good point in that Kershaw is 1 of only 9 pitchers that gather half of the team points vs. 14 hitters, but the combo of the 1st and 2nd rounds if you grab a pitcher in the first couple of picks is less IMO. You would be better off drafting at the back end and get Mad Max and one of the early 2nd round bats.

[ToddZ]

My feelings completely. Todd makes a good point in that Kershaw is 1 of only 9 pitchers that gather half of the team points vs. 14 hitters, but the combo of the 1st and 2nd rounds if you grab a pitcher in the first couple of picks is less IMO. You would be better off drafting at the back end and get Mad Max and one of the early 2nd round bats.

Honestly, I don't get this line of thinking. It's about 23 picks, not two. The impact Kershaw has on ratios allows more focus on hitters later on.

Full disclosure - I'm taking Goldie and Trout before Kershaw, but at #3, he's in play for me.

[Winston's Empire]

My feelings completely. Todd makes a good point in that Kershaw is 1 of only 9 pitchers that gather half of the team points vs. 14 hitters, but the combo of the 1st and 2nd rounds if you grab a pitcher in the first couple of picks is less IMO. You would be better off drafting at the back end and get Mad Max and one of the early 2nd round bats.

Honestly, I don't get this line of thinking. It's about 23 picks, not two. The impact Kershaw has on ratios allows more focus on hitters later on.

Full disclosure - I'm taking Goldie and Trout before Kershaw, but at #3, he's in play for me.

Agree on 1 thing, he is closer to Harper for me than Goldy and Trout, but still believe I would go with the hitter.
I also think I should consider all Cubs Players before making any rash decisions though