Live Chat With Lord Zola: Wednesday 7 pm ET

[DOUGHBOYS]

To get back on track...

You have first pick, Todd.

1. Who do you prefer?
2. And more importantly, what is your best strategy for the two/three turn?
3. Do these three picks set you up for four/five? Or is four/five what the draft is willing to offer you?

[SpinningSeams]

Todd,

Considering these questions relate to a snake draft.

To go along with Dan's questions, do you have target players for the entire draft or simply targets in the early rounds and the rest of the draft falls where it may?

How many rounds are you willing to overpay for a player?

How important is order in the lineup affect your draft choice. Sure hear that as a factor when experts analyze drafts?

Thank you for the Q & A.

Scott

[COZ]

1) What non-traditional advanced metrics do you feel are the best indicator of future performance for hitters and pitchers individually that the majority of Fantasy players ignore? Are there any StatCast metrics that you you use that you feel are most helpful for Fantasy Baseball purposes as an indicator for future performance?

2) What advice do you give for in-season management in terms of when to bail on a ballplayer, i.e. how long do you stay married to your pre-season projections when a guy starts slow (i.e. Adam LaRoche, et al) and what metrics do you look at to say this guy has lost his skill/is injured/sucks this year and when do you pull the plug vs. exercising excruciating patience?

3) With an ADP of 30, is Kyle Schwarber with his contact issues going to be the bust of the year? Have we not seen this with Matt Weiters' 2nd half of his rookie year?

4) How are you factoring exit velocity into your projections as an indicator of future performance? And specifically if a guy's BABIP is high (or as so often been stated in the past as "lucky") but his exit velocity or hard-hit percentage is high, is it safe to say that maybe he is NOT 'lucky' but rather crushes the ball and not to expect his BA to regress to the mean?

Thanks for your time, Todd.

COZ

[ToddZ]

To get back on track...

You have first pick, Todd.

1. Who do you prefer?

Today - Goldschmidt. I like his lineup better than Trout's. Come March? I may flip-flop. Not a huge fan of Segura at the top of the D-backs order - though Inciarte wasn't an OBP monster either.

2. And more importantly, what is your best strategy for the two/three turn?

Pick good players? I like what Jeff Erickson did lat night in Mixed LABR, adding Chris Sale and Cole at 2/3 to pair with Trout. I don't think I would double dip like that but if Scherzer or Sale were at the turn, I'd take one. Granted that's unlikely. I'd probably take two hitters as I'm not forcing Arrieta, Price Bumgarner etc. into that spot.[/quote]

3. Do these three picks set you up for four/five? Or is four/five what the draft is willing to offer you?

I'm all-in with roster construct and all-out drafting for so-called value so every pick sets up the next. In the above scenario, I'd likely double-dip with two arms if there were two in the tier I rank there. Otherwise one arm and re-evaluate at 4/5.

[ToddZ]

To go along with Dan's questions, do you have target players for the entire draft or simply targets in the early rounds and the rest of the draft falls where it may?

Two ways to answer that play out to be hand-in-hand.

1. I don't target any specific player but rather a style of player and I'll have several options for that style. As an example, to me, Betts, Marte, Blackmon, Pollock are all the same player. So I won't target one of them but design roster construct around a decent power,very good speed guy in the second round.

2. While I don't target specific players, I'd be lying if I said there are some that I like more than the market - for various reasons. So when I'm making my choice of someone from a group, I'll often land on the same guy. In the above example that would be A.J. Pollock. So while it may appear that I target Pollock, that's really not the case.

How many rounds are you willing to overpay for a player?

The implication here is overpay according to the ADP. While a certain General Manager of Consumer Fantasy Games may not want to see this (or even believe it) I pay very, very little attention to the ADP. Instead, I have an expectation for each draft spot - based on history of season-ending stats. I have an expectation for each player. My objective is to draft as many players for which I have a greater expectation than the respective spot as possible. I don't care what 1 person that wins a league and 14 that lose it think. I care how I feel a player will do relative to his draft spot.

That said, I'm ugly but I'm not stupid. There are a couple of picks each draft where knowing the market helps determine the order of selection - especially near the wheels. So here I will use the ADP.

The only exceptions I'll make to my own system is with pitching. If a run means my options don't leave a choice better than that draft spot, but I need the guy to build a competitive staff, I'll take him. Same with closer but only in the NFBC. In a trading league I'll fade saves if the price is too high.

How important is order in the lineup affect your draft choice. Sure hear that as a factor when experts analyze drafts?

It's paramount. A player's production is skills x playing time. Opportunity is everything. Over the course of a season, each spot in the order equals about 15 more plate appearances. It may not seem like much but that's 15 more games that players has an extra chance to produce. Not only that, higher in the order means more men on base or a better chance of scoring so run production is better. It's not just trying to sound smart. You really want as many players hitting in the top-5 as possible.

[ToddZ]

1) What non-traditional advanced metrics do you feel are the best indicator of future performance for hitters and pitchers individually that the majority of Fantasy players ignore? Are there any StatCast metrics that you you use that you feel are most helpful for Fantasy Baseball purposes as an indicator for future performance?

For hitters, I break out batted balls not only into ground ball, line drive and fly ball but hard hit medium hit and weak hit. I'll also break out infield grounders (and bunts) along with pop-ups. This gives a much better idea if a players BABIP is real or if they'll be a correction.

2) What advice do you give for in-season management in terms of when to bail on a ballplayer, i.e. how long do you stay married to your pre-season projections when a guy starts slow (i.e. Adam LaRoche, et al) and what metrics do you look at to say this guy has lost his skill/is injured/sucks this year and when do you plug the plug vs. exercising excruciating patience?

There's some research on this (FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus) that determines how long into a season it takes for the present skill level to be real. So what I do is keep a running in-season projection that's a weighted average of what I project and what he's doing, with the different skills being regressed based upon their stabilization point. Contact rate stabilizes very early so that's my leading indicator. if a guy is fanning a ton early on -- I'm out. Sometimes it's just a weird thing, but the data shows more often than not the high strikeout rate will persist all season.

3) With an ADP of 30, is Kyle Schwarber with his contact issues going to be the bust of the year? Have we not seen this with Matt Weiters' 2nd half of his rookie year?

I don't think Matt Wieters is the best comp but that's beside the point. Because he qualifies at catcher, the floor for Schwarber to be a total bust is pretty low so I can't see him being bust of the year. His contact is an issue, for sure, but not a show-stopper if the contact he makes is generally hard contact -- and it is. Same for Miguel Sano. That is, his batting average will be buoyed by a high BABIP fueled by so many well-struck balls. That said, 30 is too rich for me even though I have his numbers in the top-ten for hitters after the catcher scarcity bump is factored in.

4) How are you factoring exit velocity into your projections as an indicator of future performance? And specifically if a guy's BABIP is high (or as so often been stated in the past as "lucky") but his exit velocity or hard-hit percentage is high, it is safe to safe that maybe he is NOT 'lucky' but rather crushes the ball and not to expect his BA to regress to the mean?

I've been tip-toeing around this above to focus on it here but exit velocity (in concert with trajectory and spin) is the next big thing in analysis -- both for hitters and pitcher's allowed.

The sample is still small but so far, it certainly appears exit velocity correlates very well with hits. So while I don't directly factor it in, I use it to corroborate hard hit data which I do factor in.

[Yah Mule]

For a couple of years, I was a strict spread the risk guy and my results suffered, Shoot, I've come in last place or near last place for the last two years in the AL and NL only auctions and these are supposed to be my bread and butter.

I've done alright with the spread the risk approach in the online auctions you and Andy host for us (thank you again for your time and energy there), but I got killed trying that in the Auction Championship. I wound up with too much money late and I found myself bidding for players I didn't want against other owners who made the same mistake.

This year, I plan to die on Stars N' Scrubs Hill.

[Bjs2025]

I know this is over but a question I had about the auctions you and Andy have been running. Looking at the results there seems to be a bit higher of a pitching percentage taken than the usual 69/31 split, is that what you're seeing? If so why do you think that is? I was thinking maybe the 15 team setting leads more folks to want to have an "ace" on their staff. Thanks

[Greg Ambrosius]

Thanks to Todd for answering these questions during the week and again last night. We'll keep this going through the week.

Okay, my turn to ask a few questions of Lord Zola:

1. When you do the ESPN ranking summit, who is the most vocal to defend his or her rankings? My guess is Matthew Berry, but it could be one of the quiet ones like Karabell, right? How are the debates finally resolved?

2. Were there any players where the staff was really split on where he should go in the rankings? Anyone stand out from this year?

3. Kyle Schwarber seems to be the real wild card this year because he qualifies at Catcher and can mash like Babe Ruth. He just can't seem to field a position. What's your projections for Schwarber and if he's there at 30-31 do you add him to your first overall pick?

4. King Felix: Is he really the 18th or 19th SP going off the board? Convince me why we should be dropping him that far.

5. Robinson Cano: Are you buying the second half from 2015? .331-15-49 in less than half a season is pretty damn good for any second baseman, yet he's still going in the 4th round. Why?

First time caller, long time listener. I'll hang up and listen to your answers. Thanks.

[ToddZ]

I know this is over but a question I had about the auctions you and Andy have been running. Looking at the results there seems to be a bit higher of a pitching percentage taken than the usual 69/31 split, is that what you're seeing? If so why do you think that is? I was thinking maybe the 15 team setting leads more folks to want to have an "ace" on their staff. Thanks

I'll circle back to this after I have a chance to actually calculate the splits.

[ToddZ]

1. When you do the ESPN ranking summit, who is the most vocal to defend his or her rankings? My guess is Matthew Berry, but it could be one of the quiet ones like Karabell, right? How are the debates finally resolved?

Matthew hasn't attended (other than to say hello) for several years - his focus is pretty much all football.

You guys can actually see this on the ESPN Fantasy Facebook page but here's a brief rundown of what goes on. I'm tasked with coming up with an initial set of player projections which we use as a guide. We then go through each position and rank the top "X", depending on the position. The ranking is done by a majority vote. The person running will ask who are we all considering for the next spot, we get the names out there and as new names are brought out, the person is asked to make the case for the player. Sometimes discussion ensues, sometimes we just vote. Often the projection is questioned and I'll either defend or agree something should be changed.

The most vocal are probably Tristan, Eric and Derek Carty -- though some new guy named Shandler kept offering his opinion as well. It was sort of like Gibbs from NCIS working a case and not delegating. Since they're my initial projections, I'm pretty vocal too.

2. Were there any players where the staff was really split on where he should go in the rankings? Anyone stand out from this year?

The three that come to mind are Addison Russell, Miguel Sano and Nick Castellanos. We have Sano in the low 30s and I'm still petitioning via e-mail to adjust that.

Russell and Castellanos both had the same argument -- yeah, they may improve their skills (and likely will) but they're still capped by hitting lower in the order. Derek and I were the main two arguing for a lower ranking -- and I'm 100% sure it was the DFS influence since batting spot is so integral to DFS. That said, Shawn C has been harping on spot in the batting order for the Main Event since he learned how to talk.

How to deal with Aroldis Chapman was also a relatively heated discussion - keeping in mind the focus is the ESPN standard 10-team league.

3. Kyle Schwarber seems to be the real wild card this year because he qualifies at Catcher and can mash like Babe Ruth. He just can't seem to field a position. What's your projections for Schwarber and if he's there at 30-31 do you add him to your first overall pick?

Based on an interview I heard on SXM with Theo Epstein, I dropped him a little since my original projection had him exclusively in the outfield, playing against all RHP - most LHP while occasionally losing time for a defensive sub late in games. Theo indicated they're not giving up on putting him behind the dish which cuts his playing time a little -- not a ton, but some. He's still clearly #2 for me but not at 30/31. Mostly it has to do with overall roster construction - what I'm missing out on and where I can get my backstops later. That said, once I jump into the cutline I suspect he'll be on my squad. The scoring bumps him over Posey and he'll play more than most catchers which is huge in best ball.

4. King Felix: Is he really the 18th or 19th SP going off the board? Convince me why we should be dropping him that far.

My latest column for Rotowire (this one's for you, Tom) The Z Files -- talks about several pitchers that are better than the market perceives. I don't want to give away everything, but here's an excerpt...

"Last season, King’s HR/FB was a helium-filled 15.3 percent. Since 2007, the highest it’s been is 10.1 percent, recorded in 2014. Perhaps there was some bad pitching aiding his HR/FB spike but Hernandez was also victimized and can thus expect to throw fewer gopher balls this season, dropping his ERA much closer to its normal 3.00 level than the 3.53 turned in last year. The market appears concerned about the big righty as he was the 19th starting pitcher drafted in Mixed LABR. An argument can be made that he’s still a top-15, if not top-12 starter."

5. Robinson Cano: Are you buying the second half from 2015? .331-15-49 in less than half a season is pretty damn good for any second baseman, yet he's still going in the 4th round. Why?

Cano had some health issues first half, then turned it around in second half. What I buy is he's not done. What I don't is that he can sustain that elevated level for a full season. He's still the same guy as when he went to Seattle. Part of the 4th round ADP is so much pitching is drafted in rounds two and three so guys we intuit to be third or even second rounders get pushed down. We need to rejigger our thinking to account for the new pitching landscape.