Draft

Leaderboard Sports · Post by **Leaderboard Sports** » Tue Mar 23, 2004 7:25 pm

had the 12th pick in League 4 LV

C - Loduca, Ross

1B - David Ortiz

2B - Mark Lorreta

MI - Jerry Hairston Jr

SS - David Eckstein

3B - Mike Lowell

CI - Bill Mueler

OF - Barry Bonds

OF - Preston Wilson

OF -Alex Sanches

OF - Raul Mondesi

OF - Bernie Williams

UT - Larry Walker

SP - Mussina, Millwood, Leiter, Suppan, Traschel, Leiber and Benson

RP - Gagne, Mantei, Herges, Hasegawa, Ayala,

B - Tucker, Belliard, Simon

I think the team is balanced and if Hairston get's traded or comes back to start and Walker gets 400 at bats I'll be OK

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 12:37 am

From the guy just next door (#11 Pick in LV #4) I drafted pretty much the way I wanted. Would have liked a few more of my "Sleeper" Pitchers to stay asleep a little longer, but the other teams in the league were to sharp for that. I hope to challenge in all the batting categories except steals and hope for a little luck to shine on the solid but not awesome pitching staff. For good or bad, this is what I ended up with:

C Santiago

C Molina

1B Giambi

2B Roberts

SS Tejeda

3B Koskie

CM Alfonzo

MI DeRosa or Grudzielanek

OF Suzuki

OF Giles

OF Jones, C.

OF Green

OF Hunter

U Young, D.

P Pineiro

P Garcia, F.

P Ortiz, Russ

P Ainsworth

P Buehrle

P Lackey

P Wells, D.

P Hoffman

P Graves

R Garcia, K.

R Ventura, R. (soon to appearing on a waiver wire near you)

R Gonzalex, Jermi

R Johnson, Jason

R Worrell, Tim

PittIsIt95 · Post by **PittIsIt95** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 2:52 am

League #5 in Vegas. Out of the 15th spot

1B - Sexson

2B - Spivey

SS - K.Matsui

3B - Burroughs

MI - A.Gonzalez(Chi)

CI - Castilla

OF - Sheffield, V.Wells, J.Pierre, A.Dunn & M.Byrd

C - Estrada, LaRue

Ut - Cruz,Jr

SP - R.Wolf, D.Lowe, Ru.Ortiz, D.Willis, T.Armas, Ol.Perez & C.Park

RP - F.Cordero, E.Guardado

Bench O: L.Overbay, B.Larson, B.Hill

Bench P: F.Rodney, C.Bradford, B.Claussen

Pretty strong on offense (Only probable downfall would be BA, but if Dunn figures out how to hit a curveball, that would be corrected)

Pitching has some good arms. But after the top 10, it is a crapshoot anyway.

a · Post by a » Wed Mar 24, 2004 4:43 am

Vegas #3 Pick #5

C – Mike Lieberthal, Matt LeCroy

1B – Jim Thome

2B – Mark Ellis

3B – Morgan Ensberg

SS – Jose Valentin

CI – Jason Giambi

MI – Mark Grudzielanik

OF – Vlad Guererro, Juan Pierre, Jim Edmunds, Jose Guillen, Rondell White

UTIL – Jeff Conine

SP – Jamie Moyer, Grag Maddux, Kip Wells, Mark Redman, Jason Davis

RP – Billy Wagner, Troy Percival, Chad Cordero, Ferando Rodney

Pit Bench – AJ Burnett, Jon Leiber, Bronson Arroyo

Off Bench - Matt, Lawton, Bobby Keilty, Jack Wilson

I'm pretty balanced overall but a little weak in the middle infield. I took some chances and had some steals. If I have good health, I really like my chances.

[ March 24, 2004, 10:45 AM: Message edited by: Vega$ Gambler$ ]

a · Post by a » Wed Mar 24, 2004 4:44 am

oops, double post.

[ March 24, 2004, 10:45 AM: Message edited by: Vega$ Gambler$ ]

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 5:01 am

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:

oops, double post. Gambler, did you go Vlad, Thome, Pierre, Giambi?

a · Post by a » Wed Mar 24, 2004 6:26 am

Close....

I went

Vlad

Thome

Pierre

Wagner

Giambi

I was very surprised Giambi was there #65 seeing I saw him go in many other drafts @ 2-3.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 6:33 am

I got Giambi likewise much later than expected (also fifth round, I think...didn't write down when people were picked, but what position). I guess that .250 last year turned a bunch of people off.

a · Post by a » Wed Mar 24, 2004 6:59 am

I can see him returning to a xlose to .300 range with a little less power numbers, but he will still have a very good year.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 7:10 am

Took him at 61 and was shocked that he was still there. I think .280-.290 40-45 120-140 is within reach.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 7:42 am

Don't want to spoil the fun, but Giambi is gonna have a hard time staying healthy (which is why I didn't draft him). The Yanks saw the writing on the wall and signed T.Lee (who is now hurt). Best case for Giambi is .285, 40hr, 130rbi. More likley case is .280, 30hr, 100 rbi. Anyways, I got a better guy than Giambi later than the 5th round. That's using a couple of "experts" projections!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 8:01 am

OK, you got a better pick later. Who?

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 8:08 am

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:

I can see him returning to a xlose to .300 range with a little less power numbers, but he will still have a very good year. Vegas your team is very solid, the most projected HR’s I’ve seen from a team to date. You are likely top-10 in HR’s and RBI’s as well as SV’s. Your average is also solid, but you obviously have a few average killers in the MI. A healthy Pierre will keep you in the top-60 in SB’s, but if you lose him you’ll be in the bottom half overall there. You also are at a disadvantage since most teams will play 6-7 starters, and you will go with 5-6. You’ll have to do a lot of SP rotating to finish in the top half of W’s and K’s.

There are 1,950 maximum roto-points available. My guess is that the winning team will have between .7 and .75. That’s 1365-1463. Want to play projection?

HR’s 190

RBI 190

Ave 120

SB 130

R’s 150

W’s 50

K’s 50

ERA 140

WHIP 140

Sv’s190

The above projects to 1350, looks like you are in the hunt.

PittIsIt95 · Post by **PittIsIt95** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 8:44 am

Let me be the first to mention that LB Richards team has some power and RBIs.

They were going 13th and I was 15th in our league. Some of the bats they have are:

Bagwell,Boone,Tejada,Ensberg,Palmiero,P.Wilson,L.Walker,R.WInn,C.Everett,B.Kelty and J.Phelps.

I missed their catchers(they were horrible) and their MI (late pick so nothing special)

Pitching is so,so:

Colon,Clemens,W.Williams,R.Harden,A.Lopez,J.Peavy,E.Milton,Looper and B.Wagner

Projecting out with my team offensively, they beat me by 20 HRs. We are even in RBI, BA and Runs. I smoke him in SB by 80.

Pitching is up in the air as we both waited to build our staffs, but both staffs are solid.

[ March 24, 2004, 02:45 PM: Message edited by: PittIsIt95 ]

Walter Sobczak · Post by **Walter Sobczak** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 8:47 am

NNoy -

How do you see my squad doing?

Chicago League 1 # 14?

My squad is towards the bottom of page 4.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 9:12 am

Originally posted by Walter Sobczak:

NNoy -

How do you see my squad doing?

Chicago League 1 # 14?

My squad is towards the bottom of page 4. Walter,

I’m not going to sit here and purport to have the “end all crystal ball.” If that were the case then Greg could go ahead and cut me a check for 100K.

What I can do is apply the same projections I’ve applied to my teams and others and tell you where I think your team falls. I use 4-5 different sources for projecting stats, but there is still far too much variability for ANY projections to have a certainty of more than say 75%.

You have a lot of gambles: Mauer, Konerko, Alomar, Erstad and Myers. If these guys all come through then your team will be in the hunt, if they all peter out then you are obviously toast.

Using my projections I see your team in the middle of the pack in HR’s, Ave, RBI’s and R’s. You are bottom tier in SB’s unless Jimenez, Erstad and Alomar really produce for you.

Your SV’s with be top quartile for sure if your closers stay healthy, and if you rotate starts you can finish in the top half in W’s and K’s. Your WHIP and ERA will depend on how your young pitchers do, but you have a lot of upside and are starting at about the middle.

To be honest I would put an over/under on your team of 70th overall. Likely not what you want to hear, but a few key injuries to others and a career year here and there (like Bonds hitting 70+ again) and you will be near the top.

Good luck.

PittIsIt95 · Post by **PittIsIt95** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 9:18 am

NNoy, just curious what your projections are for mine as well. I have them projected off two sources. Want to see if we are in the same ballpark on projections. I am posted about 10 posts back.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 10:13 am

Originally posted by PittIsIt95:

NNoy, just curious what your projections are for mine as well. I have them projected off two sources. Want to see if we are in the same ballpark on projections. I am posted about 10 posts back. Here’s what my crystal ball has to say:

Ave .278-.285

HR 260-285

RBI 960-1010

R 1100-1150

SB 140-160

Your pitching is a complete unknown since you will likely be picking up two FA’s immediately to complete your staff.

If you get “average” guys:

WHIP 1.18 - 1.26

ERA 3.5 - 4.25

W 85 – 105

SV 60-85

K’s 900-1050

Your team has top quartile hitting in all 5 categories (assuming good things from the Japanese import). Your pitching has a great base with the players you have and your WHIP could be under 1.2 if you protect it, but you will not be competitive in W’s or K’s if you stand pat with your SP’s.

Good luck.

LB Big Richards · Post by **LB Big Richards** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 10:27 am

Originally posted by PittIsIt95:

Let me be the first to mention that LB Richards team has some power and RBIs.

They were going 13th and I was 15th in our league. Some of the bats they have are:

Bagwell,Boone,Tejada,Ensberg,Palmiero,P.Wilson,L.Walker,R.WInn,C.Everett,B.Kelty and J.Phelps.

I missed their catchers(they were horrible) and their MI (late pick so nothing special)

Pitching is so,so:

Colon,Clemens,W.Williams,R.Harden,A.Lopez,J.Peavy,E.Milton,Looper and B.Wagner

Projecting out with my team offensively, they beat me by 20 HRs. We are even in RBI, BA and Runs. I smoke him in SB by 80.

Pitching is up in the air as we both waited to build our staffs, but both staffs are solid. What, you think Myers and Matheny are horrible catchers? OK, maybe you're right

. We're counting on Castro to contribute when he gains C eligibility.

We definitely are in need of more speed. It'll be tough to find SBs in FA.

I like our SPs a bit more than you do. They all pitch for winning teams and get Ks. We have 2+ closers, our goal.

We could use some position flexibility and another MI.

Obviously we like our team but it needs some fine tuning. As much as we like our NFBC team, we like our WCOFB even better (picked 15th):

C - Hall (19), Laird (28)

1B - Palmeiro (7)

2B - Jimenez (18)

SS - Renteria (2)

3B - Hinske (8)

CI - Nevin (12)

MI - M. Anderson (23)

U - Grissom (20)

OF - Bonds (1), Ichiro (3), A. Jones (6), Hidalgo (9), Cameron (16)

SP - K. Brown (5), Wolf (10), Harden (13), Willis (14), W. Williams (15), V. Zambrano (26)

RP - Wagner (4), Kolb (11), C. Cordero (17), Gordon (24)

Bench - Batista (21), Kielty (22), Miles (25), Feliz (27), Kapler (29)

Hojin

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 10:40 am

Enjoy the limelight while it lasts Hojin. If you come out of the box in 90th place (unlikely looking at your team, but a possibility) then your following will drop faster than Enron stock. However, at the end of the day you will still have something only two other people may get this year and that of course if the distinction of having won a major national contest (plus the cold hard cash that goes with it of course).

Karch Adonis · Post by **Karch Adonis** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:02 am

I hope all of this chatter gets saved for review at the end of the season. I'm sure no one here (except GG) projected Javy for 40+ dingers last season, etc.

Somebody up here mentioned the concept that once many teams start using similar strategies the results become 'part of the system' and don't provide any relative benefit. My 'crystal ball' suggests that this whole thing will be decided by a couple of injuries and some journeyman doubling his career-best season.

If can't be us, I really hope Dessens wins the Cy Young and the guy who drafted him wins it all.

scooter2022 · Post by **scooter2022** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:08 am

nnoy bust out the crystal ball one more time. Tell me what you think. thanks

LeCroy, Matthew C MIN

Varitek, Jason C BOS

Sweeney, Mike 1B KC

Kent, Jeff 2B HOU

Feliz, Pedro 3B SF

Helms, Wes 3B MIL

Munson, Eric 3B DET

Ramirez, Aramis 3B CHC

Furcal, Rafael SS ATL

Vizquel, Omar SS CLE

Encarnacion, Juan OF LA

Gerut, Jody OF CLE

Guiel, Aaron OF KC

Johnson, Reed OF TOR

Stewart, Shannon OF MIN

White, Rondell OF DET

Williams, Bernie OF NYY

Ainsworth, Kurt P BAL

Beck, Rod P SD

Lidge, Brad P HOU

Martinez, Pedro P BOS

Mulder, Mark P OAK

Nathan, Joe P MIN

Pavano, Carl P FLA

Percival, Troy P ANA

Ponson, Sidney P BAL

Schilling, Curt P BOS

Tomko, Brett P SF -

Wagner, Ryan P CIN

LB Big Richards · Post by **LB Big Richards** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:10 am

Nnoy,

Projections are nice, but time will tell. As you've stated, pitching is difficult to assess and that will be the deciding factor. If you can get some cheap wins from your RPs and rotate in SPs, your pitching category scores will greatly improve. With no trading, the draft is crucial to any team's success. However, don't overlook the importance of FAAB. Out of our 29 draftees last year, only 15 were on our roster at the end of Sept. We suffered injuries to Juan Gone, El Duque, Jenkins, Bradley and had horrible years from Durham, Rollins, Baez, and Alfonseca. Smart bidding and good pickups helped pave the way to a winning season. Yes, we only beat 44 other teams, but our raw stats showed we certainly could've topped a 195 team field.

Good luck to you Nnoy and everyone else. Whatever the outcome, you'll enjoy the six months of competition and entertainment.

Lastly, can't say it enough, but many props to Greg and Krause for putting on this shindig. I believe I can speak for others when I say many of us will be a part of NFBC for a long time. Keep up the good work Greg.

Hojin

Leaderboard Sports · Post by **Leaderboard Sports** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:53 am

Hojin and Aram averaged 80% in each category on their way to last years championship. You can go higher in some and lower in some but when all is said and done you'll need around 1560 points.

This is what you'll need to accumulate in each category in order to get an 80% score.

Ba. Avg. = .281

HR = 282

RBI = 1091

R = 1117

SB = 140

W = 104

SV = 93

ERA = 3.72

SO = 1197

RAT = 1.269

Projections are just that projections and injuries and surprises are always going to throw things off but if you plug in Ron Shandlers projections for your players you can see where you stack up against those numbers and get an idea of where you'll finish.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 12:18 pm

I meet that. Go ahead send the check.