Draft

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 1:59 pm

Nnoy, I know where I am with my projections, can you toss out where we sit with yours?

Just curious how we match up on projections:

C: Javy Lopez, Estrada

1b: Helton

2b: Marlon Anderson

3b: Beltre

SS: Renteria

1/3: Klesko

2/S: DeRosa

OF: Vernon Wells, Carlos Lee, Shawn Green, Juan Gonzalez, Alex Sanchez

Util Spiezio (or Brian Jordan)

SP: Contreras, Livan Hernandez, Kris Benson, Jeff Weaver, Oliver Perez, Jeff Suppan (Jason Davis and Greinke on bench)

RP: Mantei, Nathan, Baez (J.C. Romero and Otsuka on bench)

Hitting bench = Jolbert Cabrera and the aforementioned Brian Jordan.

I'm projecting myself into a high level of HR/RBI, solid to good BA, good runs and SB, weak on wins, average on k's and average on whip/era.... solid on Saves.

Thanks - appreciate any time anyone puts into evaluating my team.

Dyv

[ March 24, 2004, 07:59 PM: Message edited by: Dyv ]

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 2:35 pm

I wasnt sure if I was going to post our team or not, but here goes. #3 Pick, LV #1

C = Charles Johnson / Brad Ausmus

1b = Brad Wilkerson

3b = Aramis Ramirez

CI = Scott Spezio

2b = Alfonso Soriano

SS = Carlos Guillen (Mark DeRosa)

MI = Mark DeRosa (Willie Harris once eligible)

OF = Sammy Sosa / Carlos Lee / Richard Hidalgo / Randy Winn / Juan Gonzalez (Jeremy Reed / Damian Jackson)

UT = Brian Jordan

SP = Jason Schmidt / Kevin Millwood / Wade Miller / Eric Milton / Brad Radke

MR = Brad Lidge / Felix Rodriguez (Luis Ayala / Luis Vizcaino / Akinori Otsuka)

I am very Pleased!

CL = John Smoltz / Matt Mantei

a · Post by a » Wed Mar 24, 2004 2:51 pm

NNOY, thanks for the kind words. I decided to go with the proven offense that had upside or had a great value. I know my pitching is on the light side, but I really like Wells and Redman. I see them both having thier best yeat to date. If Moyer and Maddux have thier avarage type season, I'll take that too.

Bags · Post by **Bags** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 2:57 pm

Dyv,

Shandler's projections for you:

AVG: .2903

HR: 308

RBI: 1119

SB: 144

R: 1032

ERA: 3.659

W: 78

K: 1069

SV: 82

WHIP: 1.266

[ March 24, 2004, 09:07 PM: Message edited by: Bags ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 3:17 pm

Shandler's projections for my team:

AVG: .271

HR: 228

RBI: 1019

SB: 74

R: 932

ERA: 3.95

W: 68

K: 869

SV: 44

WHIP: 1.33

Enjoy!

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 3:29 pm

Originally posted by Bags:

Dyv,

Shandler's projections for you:

AVG: .2903

HR: 308

RBI: 1119

SB: 144

R: 1032

ERA: 3.659

W: 78

K: 1069

SV: 82

WHIP: 1.266 Who is this Ron Shandler fella? Just kidding

Thanks for taking the time, Bags.

If we can just scrape up a spare 20 wins laying about we'll be in good shape, lol.

Dave

Nevadaman · Post by **Nevadaman** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 10:02 pm

Team Herron: Your Shandler projections are:

BA .2806

Runs 1028

HR 315

RBI 1069

SB 141

ERA 3.53

Wins 98

SV 77

K's 1095

WHIP 1.197

I did everybody in our league, except for the illegal roster (Team 9) Your pitching numbers are very high, along with HR. Runs are a big problem as you only beat 1 team in the league. Overall, very good!

J.F.K. · Post by **J.F.K.** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 10:40 pm

hey Nevadaman, what were my projections?

team 6 in League 1, thanks

J.F.K. · Post by **J.F.K.** » Wed Mar 24, 2004 10:41 pm

and why was team 9s roster illegal?

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 3:01 am

Shandler projections are cool and likely will be more accurate than most on the market. However, you need to make some minor adjustments to them to increase their validity. For example Shawn Chacon is projected to be 6-11 with a 5+ ERA and 0 SV’s. These projections were done in December, so player’s like Chacon that have new roles are not projected accordingly.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 3:11 am

Originally posted by Dyv:

Nnoy, I know where I am with my projections, can you toss out where we sit with yours?

Just curious how we match up on projections:

C: Javy Lopez, Estrada

1b: Helton

2b: Marlon Anderson

3b: Beltre

SS: Renteria

1/3: Klesko

2/S: DeRosa

OF: Vernon Wells, Carlos Lee, Shawn Green, Juan Gonzalez, Alex Sanchez

Util Spiezio (or Brian Jordan)

SP: Contreras, Livan Hernandez, Kris Benson, Jeff Weaver, Oliver Perez, Jeff Suppan (Jason Davis and Greinke on bench)

RP: Mantei, Nathan, Baez (J.C. Romero and Otsuka on bench)

Hitting bench = Jolbert Cabrera and the aforementioned Brian Jordan.

I'm projecting myself into a high level of HR/RBI, solid to good BA, good runs and SB, weak on wins, average on k's and average on whip/era.... solid on Saves.

Thanks - appreciate any time anyone puts into evaluating my team.

Dyv Dyv,

Your offense is somewhat scary.

Ave: .285-.295 (the highest I’ve seen, as long as Javy doesn’t hit .233 again like he did in 2002 you’ll be near the top here)

HR: 270-300 (again a lot of questions with players like Juan and Javy, but a shot at 300 which is the “magic” number)

RBI: 1100-1200

R: 1000-1100

Your projected stats have a wide range because you took a lot of risks. If half of your risks pan out you’ll be near the top of your league. If they all pan out then you’ll be near the top overall.

ERA: 3.5 –4

WHIP: 1.225-1.275

K: 1000-1100

W 80-95

SV: 50 – 90 (Better hope UU doesn’t sign with the Twins.)

Good luck.

b.rudd48 · Post by **b.rudd48** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 4:12 am

It's nice to see these projections for all of these teams.

I am in Chicago Lg. 2, Pick 14.

I ran some Shandler projections for our squad and found that, according to the 80 % estimates by Leaderboard Sports (page 9 on this topic), we were above his totals in 5 categories, and below in 5 (well above in a couple, well below in a couple). All in all, I like what the projections are showing, but would like someone else's opinion.

Our Squad:

C-Piazza, Molina

1b-D. Lee, Konerko

2b-Kennedy, O. Hudson

ss-Renteria

3b-Crede

OF-Magglio, Mondesi, S. Finley, W. Harris (for now), Kielty

UT-Fullmer

Bench- J. Rivera, Broussard, Morneau

SP-Santana, Odalis Perez, Leiter, Harden, Suppan, May

RP- Dotel, Looper, G. Mota

Bench-Lily, L. Hawkins, Hitchcock

I think we have a lot of power and speed, and I think a few of the pitchers that we will be rotating will pan out for us (We'll see). We are aware that we have a couple of holes to fill, but when the draft goes 435 players deep, I think everyone does.

Thanks for the input.

Karch Adonis · Post by **Karch Adonis** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 4:46 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Shandler's projections for my team:

AVG: .271

HR: 228

RBI: 1019

SB: 74

R: 932

ERA: 3.95

W: 68

K: 869

SV: 44

WHIP: 1.33

Enjoy! GG, you're a treasure. Don't go changin'!

Leaderboard Sports · Post by **Leaderboard Sports** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 6:11 am

Originally posted by nnoy:

Shandler projections are cool and likely will be more accurate than most on the market. However, you need to make some minor adjustments to them to increase their validity. For example Shawn Chacon is projected to be 6-11 with a 5+ ERA and 0 SV’s. These projections were done in December, so player’s like Chacon that have new roles are not projected accordingly. I was using the updated projections from his HQ website.

Also make sure you don't use your bench player projections as you can only have 23 starters. With an extra 6 starters thrown in everyone would have nice looking totals

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 6:16 am

Can someone run the numbers on my anemic team..

C Mauer

C Lopez

1B Simon or Mientwickz

2B Vidro

SS Garciaparra

3B Castilla

CI Randa (Mientwickz)

MI Hairston (Utley)

OF Bonds, Nixon, B.Williams, Byrd, Podsednik

DH Grissom

SP - Beckett, Odalis Perez, Padilla, Russ Ortiz, T. Ohka, J. Lackey

RP - Percival, Borowski

bench - Utley, K. Robinson, Beck, K. Harvey,

Leaderboard Sports · Post by **Leaderboard Sports** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 6:32 am

I did mine by hand as I don't have the software that does it for you. It takes quite a bit of time. The totals categories (R's, RBI's, HR's) are easy to do but the average catergories you have to multiply the projected number of at bats times the projected average add those totals all up and divide by the total number of at bats, same with era and ratio, projected innings pitched times era and divide totals by total innings.

There is software, I think John Bennet's is one, that does all that for you. Maybe someone who has that can help you.

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 6:36 am

Thanks for the reply. I really dont think i want to know at this point...just pray real hard... Mientwickz in the 18th round...horrible pick....will cost me. Should have picked up a late reliever....see what happens on FA wire.

Nevadaman · Post by **Nevadaman** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 7:31 am

JFK: Your projections are:

BA: .2915 (highest in league)

Runs 1064

HR 280

RBI 1057

SB 123

ERA 3.911 (worst in league)

Wins 92

Saves 102 (best in league)

K's 1129

WHIP 1.299

Overall, you're in the middle, give or take a team. Team 9 is illegal because there's no 2B!! Jose Reyes only played SS last year. He won't qualify at 2B until he plays 20 games this year.

BONGIZMO · Post by **BONGIZMO** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 7:34 am

Hey Nevada, where did I rank according to your stats in our league if it's not to much trouble to compile? I feel good that I have a balanced squad with some sleepers and as most of us do, a few reaches...

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 7:48 am

Hey Nevadaman,

Can you do my numbers...league 1 team #14 Tuna Kings. thanks.

Nevadaman · Post by **Nevadaman** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 8:25 am

Bongizmo (team 13) is:

BA .280

R 1054

HR 270

RBI 1034

SB 121

ERA 3.69

Wins 89

SV 53

K 1041

WHIP 1.272

Bongizmo, your pitching is dead middle, with the hitting a bit below that. However, the rosters on all 15 teams are pretty close in most cats. No doubt in my mind that injuries and unexpected breakout seasons will decide this thing.

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 8:26 am

Team 9 has Durham so he qualifies.

Nevadaman · Post by **Nevadaman** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 8:31 am

BIG FISH (TEAM 14):

BA .278

R 1093

HR 253 (worst in league)

RBI 998 (2nd worst in league)

SB 118

ERA 3.735

W 87

SV 56

K 1168

WHIP 1.281

Average pitching, horrible offense. You've got some work to do! Drafting late in the round is hard to overcome.

Nevadaman · Post by **Nevadaman** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 8:38 am

Big Fish, What the hell are you talking about? Team 12 drafted Durham in the 8th round. I wrote down everybody's pick.

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 25, 2004 8:38 am

Yikes. What a mess. One can only hope old timers and young kids do better than expected. One question, the stat projections are based on last year's numbers and forecasting however is is it current, the book or model that is? Thanks for making my day Nevada. Best of luck to you and all.