First and foremost, the obligatory (but greatly deserved) kudos to Greg, Tom, Mike, and the entire STATS! team. An amazing event, especially considering the extreme industry (and personal) challenges. We may be whiny sometimes ("But I don't WANT the 14th pick!") ...
But for my part, I am enormously appreciative of the obvious effort.
There are several people I missed seeing this year like Dan, and Jeff and Dave Clum(to name a few). Do not let this happen again. If it does, i will send my team in to give you a "Godfather" type message!
For all of those I did see..all the guys in my league like Dave Potts,who with Scott Waggener had to put up with me through two events!, Dave DiDonato, the improperly named Worst Russians Ever who tried to steal all of my picks but were such gentlemen about it, Rusty Clark on the other side trying to do the same, Dusty and Jake, Mike Duggan, Will Tyrer, Vlad...well, you get the idea. Great guys in a tough league.
Also great catching up with Jon Stadtmueller, Dan Semsel, Don Warner, Matt Shepard, Tom Warner, Ross Longwood, Jim Jeckewicz, Ken O'Brien, Rob Giese and the others from my Auction League. I like these guys so much, I left them a $20 tip!
Goes with out saying seeing Glenn (who must love my main event team), Steve, Shawn, Mark, Gates, Nikko, and so many others it what really sets this event apart from the others. Mikey, great to see you man and congrats again!
So, after all that sucking up, how about my team? The last couple of years I set my strategy about a week before and will lock in this part of the blog. Not this year because I honestly had no clue. I got the 10th spot in the draft and from there you could really set yourself up any way you want. Unless you leave a TON of offensive talent on the table, you are probably having to play catch-up with pitching at the 3/4 turn, but other than that, it was a really good spot. Actually, this year more than any, I think the winner can come from any spot in the draft order.
A little more in general. I still believe your offense is established with six players. Get your base from those guys, the wide an plentiful "average" major leaguer can fill out your roster adequately. You may have to focus more on the 10-15 SB players or the 10-15 HR players depending on how the top six played out, but these are just variations on a theme. Taking it down to a even more general level, I felt like I needed to get three 30+HR types (most teams on average will have only two) and four 20+ HR types. I also needed to get at least four 20 SB types and four 10 SB types. Some players will fit both roles and all of my Big Six players will check off at least one box.
On pitching, no surprise most will not wait until the fifth or sixth round to start taking pitching like in the good old days when you only needed 1,200 K's to get 80% of available points. This is not to say someone could try this and succeed. One person in my league did and has a very nice looking team. I did not feel comfortable that I could pull it off. By the end of the sixth round I had three pitchers already. This year, after years of frustration trying to make it happen with two closers and rotating in a seventh starter (what do you call that thing when you try the same thing over and over and expect a different result?)....
Anyway, I wanted to go with three relievers this year, though not necessary three closers. I targeted on player whom I think will fill that flex spot better than most...as I will note later.
Anyway, here is my team. Going in, I thought I would probably have as my best choices (in no particular order) Altuve, Stanton, McCutchen, or Rizzo. Based on small scale statistical inference, I had virtually no chance at the top eight (you know the big four plus Donaldson, Arrenado, Machado, and Correa). As in less than 7% on numbers six through eight and 0% on those generally picked five and above. The only guy I did not want was Correa. I am a believer, but not that high. Anyway, since this is the NFBC, I was proven wrong.
In my pre-draft planning (i.e. the morning of the draft) I thought the best player for me would be to grab Rizzo and hopefully get Marte (or Betts if I was real lucky). Odds were good and already had them locked and loaded in my mind. Well, Matt Dillon out of the Five Spot thought alot of Rizzo too, but I did not think one of the top eight would slip past those crazy Russians. The consensus choice for them was Stanton, which of course you cannot argue with their logic. That left me with the odd man out, Donaldson. It was all I could do not to grab my phone and check to see if his leg had recently fallen off. I took a leap of faith and selected him. Coming back around, I did not have the opportunity on Betts or Marte. Given the Pollock injury (sorry Jon!), I still wanted to get some speed with good pop, so I "reached" a little bit and grabbed Blackmon. Nice power, nice speed, nice base.
Now I was going to grab two pitchers. However, pitchers went insanely fast. After Kershaw, I felt there were 17 other pitchers that could reasonably fill the ace role. Twelve were gone by the time I got my third round pick, DeGrom. Strange to write he is a bit of a gamble given the reports that his fastball is down a couple of MPH. I am hoping he let go on the side and saved himself a bit during the spring training games. We will see. By this time there were only four pitchers left that I thought would absolutely require I grab one if they made it back to me after ten picks. Nope. Nada. So I changed up strategy a little bit and grabbed another hitter in Cespedes. Yes...two Mets already. I feel so cheap and ashamed.
By the next turn, I grabbed a starter from that short, next tier, that may be just a bit behind the first tier, but not much. Cole Hamels who is my second guy who can give me a chance at at least 200 K's. Later I will need to find one more, especially if I am going to try to make it with six starters this year. On the flip, we were already in a closer run, four went before I picked Hamels, and two since. I grabbed....yes, another Met, Familia. The agony.
With this base (two great starters, one closer, good power, a speed player), I am to the point where I already want to construct a roster, not just chase stats or necessarily what the consensus would say is the best available player. In other words, not let the draft dictate who I would take. This is a bit of a change for me as well. Something Todd Zola wrote (good seeing you too Todd) I believe resonated. Attack the draft. So I did. I grabbed one of the few catchers who can help the team and anchor a difficult position to get production out of in Jonathan Lucroy. Then, to counterbalance my Mets, I took Tanaka. Getting a little risky here given his elbow,but his overall numbers promise to be too good to pass up. Feeling short a little on speed and willing to test my risk profile even more I grabbed Jacoby Ellsbury. I do not think '11 is in the cards, but with enough health to garner 550+ AB again, '14 over again will be just fine. And now more red meat, Lucas Duda.
At this point in the draft we were interrupted by a special messenger.
Since six of my first ten picks play for NY teams, I have a been named an honorary citizen of Metropolis and the messenger was bringing me a tax bill.
The next ten picks was an attempt to round out and balance.
11th Smardizja (really think the SF gig will be good for him and me)
12th Daniel Murphy (should be batting in the 5th spot in Washington with good pop and hopefully a few SB will come back)
13th Brandon Crawford (I don't know if 20+ HR are possible, but he will hit for more than the average shortstop and I think more BA is in the offing) Murphy and Crawford make a nice middle infield anchor.
14th Arodys Vizcaino (I think he will be the man in Atlanta, such that that is).
There were two trend that I did not bite on. One, closers, even the ones we know are on shaky ground, went way too early in my opinion. The second was catchers. I think not biting on a second catcher early enough ended up biting me.
15th Jason Hammel (Solid pitcher on what I think is the team to beat in the Central)
16th Ian Kennedy (I do not expect the Royals to fold and Kennedy, control warts and all, can give me my third 200 k pitcher)
17th Dellin Betances (this is my swingman spot. May not close, but will give me ratio, ERA and K's much better than a mixed bag of streamers)
18th Alcides Escobar (SB and nothing but. Only 29. Could give me my third 30+ SB guy)
19th Hector Olivera (another Brave, but one I hope will be batting fourth in the near future. Inciarte, Aybar, Freeman in front. I mean the Dodgers and the Braves both saw SOMETHING, right?)
20th Avisial Garcia (Played his way back into relevance this spring and I guess I am drinking the Kool-Aide)
The next 10, like we all have a tendency to do, is fill the last few roster spots and try to 1) build for future needs and 2) cover risks.
21st Jason Castro (didn't participate in the second catcher run and this is the result. 2013 was not that long ago and is in a walk year. I will rely on other forms of superstition to rationalize this pick as well)
22nd Aaron Hicks (not sure if I buy Yankee Stadium being what propels him to relevance, but owning Ellsbury, this is a nice pick with a decent power/speed profile)
23rd Hyun-Jin Ryu (hoping for a nice addition/option in May)
24th Desmond Jennings (never can have too much speed. Another '13 repeat maybe?)
25th Brock Holt (he plays everywhere and is now or for now a starter, but what will he contribute?)
26th Billy Butler (you know, I think he will still play and at this stage 60/70 Runs and RBI's with 15+ dingers and a .260/.270 BA are a little thin)
27th Matt Adams (Sorry to see Pham leave the game, but if serious, more playing time for Adams should be the result. Still only 27 and another 15+ HR guy even if he only gets 425 AB.)
28th Jumbo Diaz (JJ Hoover? Really?)
29th Rusney Castillo (you know...YOU KNOW Boston will give him another chance. Look at Jackie Bradley!)
30th Matt Latos (I just cannot, even if I should, give up on this guy. What is the saying about what happens in Oakland? That's right, nobody cares. After his road game this week there, he may be my first drop)
Well, there it is. The first installment in my annual exercise in futility. Back to the real world tomorrow. I will go through the motions no matter how silly I look.
than normal he can keep from throwing those high and straight FBs.
