Sabr Magoo

[DOUGHBOYS]

Younger folks in the NFBC won't remember Mr. Magoo. Mr Magoo was a cartoon character voiced by Jim Backus who was all but blind, and saw mostly what he wanted to see.
Sabrs are a lot like Mr Magoo. They see a lot of strike outs and few walks from a batter and label him.
They'll see a game like the Nats vs. the Cubs yesterday and sing the praises of Bryce Harper's on base percentage. An on base percentage that contributed to the Nats losing the game.
Harper was walked six times.
Oh wait.
Harper drew six walks.
Sabrs like to believe that batters are in control of their walking.
Mr Magoo felt he was in control too.

The Nats lost that game and were swept in the series. Harper walked 13 times. Sabrs say the best thing a player can do is reach base.
Is it?
Some players are beyond that.
Harper, Trout, Goldschmidt, Arenado, Donaldson, and others are weapons.
A walk disarms that weapon.
Harper and Goldschmidt are liable to be disarmed a lot.
They have lineups that only include non-scary hitters behind them like Peralta or Castillo and Zimmerman or Werth.

Like Mr Magoo, Sabrs don't see these situations. Only that these walks are instantly helping their teams.
Harper was walked 10 times during the series with the Cubs, hit by a pitch once. He scored two runs.
More importantly, he didn't have a hit. He never hurt the Cubs.
The Cubs win.
Sabrs slobber over Harper's obp.
And we're all reminded that the Nats full lineup, minus Harper, is mediocre.

Harper has reached base over 50 times via walk or hit, without homers over 50 times.
He has scored 11 times afterwards. His 10 other runs scored have come from his own home run hand.
Goldschmidt has scored only 14 total runs, while leading baseball with 33 bases on balls.
Six of those 14 runs came from his own homers.

As far as fantasy, owners are gritting their teeth.
Harper came up twice with runners on first and second. A situation that has owners licking lips in anticipation of nice statistics.
Instead, Harper was walked, loading the bases, and giving the rbi ops to Zimmerman.
We know how that turned out.
Believe me, Harper owners are not touting his .obp

Pitchers are Vottoing Harper and Goldschmidt. They are not looking for walks like Cincy's 'slugger' does.
They are being 'given' walks because in most instances, teams do not like their seven in 10 odds of getting them out.
Giving Harper and Goldschmidt walks is working.
Both lineups look disjointed without their sluggers bat's swinging.
I anticipate the trend continuing.
Although Goldy and Harper lead baseball in drawing walks, neither are in the top 15 in actually scoring runs.
Sabrs do not see that. Only their obp. They're blind like that.
"Oh Magoo! You've done it again!"

[headhunters]

ya- great post. thought of this today. to be clear- the cubs walked harper on purpose. one point dan- harper was quoted as saying he is now vottoing (new expression). if it is a ball- he is taking- his job is to get on base. AND dusty was quoted as saying he ain't moving Zimmerman. if the next manager pitches to votto- I mean harper- he should be fired. I doubt the next manager is as good as maddon is- and he should do what joe did.

[TOXIC ASSETS]

Great posting... LOL @ the Mr Magoo comparison. Yep - I'm getting old.....

[Bjs2025]

If Harper did what he did in the six walk game every game of his career he would be the best offense of player in the history of baseball. This will never happen because of traditional thinking but count me has one that would appreciate a change to on-base percentage rather than batting average.

[Bjs2025]

It's comments like this:

"They'll see a game like the Nats vs. the Cubs yesterday and sing the praises of Bryce Harper's on base percentage. An on base percentage that contributed to the Nats losing the game."

That makes zero sense to me. So somehow his reaching base safely that many times contributed to the loss for the Nats? In a game of failure where even someone like Bryce Harper taking a chance at swinging will most likely result in not reaching base you are going to say that him definitely reaching base is a detriment? This is what I don't understand about people who criticize sabermetrics. This has nothing to do with any kind of math, science or deep metrics. If a guy gets on base every time and the average league on base percentage is roughly .330 that is a good thing. It's not even something you have to think hard about.

[Gb2715]

It's comments like this:

"They'll see a game like the Nats vs. the Cubs yesterday and sing the praises of Bryce Harper's on base percentage. An on base percentage that contributed to the Nats losing the game."

That makes zero sense to me. So somehow his reaching base safely that many times contributed to the loss for the Nats? In a game of failure where even someone like Bryce Harper taking a chance at swinging will most likely result in not reaching base you are going to say that him definitely reaching base is a detriment? This is what I don't understand about people who criticize sabermetrics. This has nothing to do with any kind of math, science or deep metrics. If a guy gets on base every time and the average league on base percentage is roughly .330 that is a good thing. It's not even something you have to think hard about.

What they are saying is Harper walking did not and does not help the Nats win. That is why Maddon walked him. Harper hitting the ball helps the Nats win!

[DOUGHBOYS]

There are many componants to a baseball team. A formula does not work for every player. What is good for Jean Segura may not be what is good for Mike Trout.
Sabrs try to lump everybody together. A k/bb ratio goes for everybody. An on base percentage goes for everybody.
Baseball is more than just that. It's almost like they are thumping on their chest like Tarzan telling Jane, "Walks GOOD, strike outs BAD!"

Almost every baseball team has a producer. Some, have two or three. Bryce Harper can now be considered an ultra-producer.
Throw on base percentage out the window for an ultra producer. If he walks, more times than not, he is helping the defensive team because the Nats really have no producer, other than Harper.
Murphy can be called a 'semi-producer' as of now, because he is hot. But, hot hitters come and go, real producers last years.

It's the same reason I get on Joey Votto's case. He's a producer also, but invites the walk.
Sabrs love this and defend Votto to the death. As a fantasy player, it galls me to see a producer like Votto and an ultra-producer like Harper receive a walk with two men on base.
I would rather see a producer do his job and swing the bat, than walk down to first base and leave the producing job to a hitter less capable.

And all the while, when not producing, sabrs are singing the praises of Votto's and Harper's on base percentage.
It doesn't help them as producers.
It doesn't help their team in the long run.
And it certainly does not help their fantasy owners.

[Bjs2025]

Almost every baseball team has a producer.
And all the while, when not producing, sabrs are singing the praises of Votto's and Harper's on base percentage.
It doesn't help them as producers.
It doesn't help their team in the long run.
And it certainly does not help their fantasy owners.

Then I guess producing is within the eye of the beholder. To me because there are minimal seasons in which any player has gotten on base at a higher clip than he hasn't (Cheating Barry Bonds is the only that comes to mind) anytime he gets on base is valuable since this is a game of failure from the batters perspective. Joey Votto and Bryce Harper both put up good power numbers in addition to getting on base a lot. I will take a walk any day of the week over the chance of what a swing might produce if I know I am getting the walk.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Almost every baseball team has a producer.
And all the while, when not producing, sabrs are singing the praises of Votto's and Harper's on base percentage.
It doesn't help them as producers.
It doesn't help their team in the long run.
And it certainly does not help their fantasy owners.

Then I guess producing is within the eye of the beholder. To me because there are minimal seasons in which any player has gotten on base at a higher clip than he hasn't (Cheating Barry Bonds is the only that comes to mind) anytime he gets on base is valuable since this is a game of failure from the batters perspective. Joey Votto and Bryce Harper both put up good power numbers in addition to getting on base a lot. I will take a walk any day of the week over the chance of what a swing might produce if I know I am getting the walk.

That is your choice.

[Gb2715]

Almost every baseball team has a producer.
And all the while, when not producing, sabrs are singing the praises of Votto's and Harper's on base percentage.
It doesn't help them as producers.
It doesn't help their team in the long run.
And it certainly does not help their fantasy owners.

Then I guess producing is within the eye of the beholder. To me because there are minimal seasons in which any player has gotten on base at a higher clip than he hasn't (Cheating Barry Bonds is the only that comes to mind) anytime he gets on base is valuable since this is a game of failure from the batters perspective. Joey Votto and Bryce Harper both put up good power numbers in addition to getting on base a lot. I will take a walk any day of the week over the chance of what a swing might produce if I know I am getting the walk.

Obviously this guy hasn't played or coached above the tee ball level. If I or my guy is up in the ninth with men on 1st and 2nd I want to step across the plate and hit a ball that is meant to walk me. It is my responsibility to drive in runs not walk to first base and get stranded so the other team can beat us in the bottom of the inning. Yes it's nice to get on base but when the hitter behind you strands 72 runners in one game what is the point I would rather you strikeout 6 times and hit 1 double or Hr to drive in some runs other than walk 7 times and never get past your lead off at first base!

[Gb2715]

I pulled out the IBB in little league last year. The best hitter in the league was up and we were up 2 he walked we got the next 2 out and we won the game. Getting in base is not the point of the game. Winning the game is!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Already, there have been almost 200 intentional walks this year.
All those walks are a means for the defensive team to limit scoring.
At the same time, those walks are treated as 'good' for each batter that received them by the sabr community.
Sabrs want one size to fit all.
Baseball doesn't work that way.

Those that do not want to think outside that box are stuck with the notion that every walk is good.
It is just not so.

[Edwards Kings]

At the same time, those walks are treated as 'good' for each batter that received them by the sabr community.
Sabrs want one size to fit all.

Bad SABR....BAD....BAD.....

C'mon....laying a little thick, yes? Yes, SABR people believe in stuff like regression. Yes, they believe that taking a walk is better than making an out. But no sabr-matician I know substitutes strictly numbers for actual performance/results. SABR helps discern who has the better chance to succeed...An example...two guys hit .300 in the prior year...one guy strikes out 40% of the time and the other 10%....all other things being equal as far as current situation...which guy has the better chance to hit .300 again...the human windmill, or the guy who makes contact?

I like numbers....numbers are my friend...

[DOUGHBOYS]

Do you want Chris Davis contact on your team?
Or do you want Joe Mauer's contact on your team?
Mauer strikes out less. Strike outs are BAD!

[DOUGHBOYS]

To be serious, Mauer has walked more than Chris Davis.
Has struck out a lot less often than Davis.
Hits 60 points higher than Davis.
By all rights, Mauer is the better player.
And in the past, he may have been considered the better player.

But today, power plays.
If Mauer reaches base for Minnesota, odds are that he'll die on base. Even with more walks and higher batting average, Mauer has scored just 10 runs. Did all those walks and bingles produce much scoring?
Not really.
10 runs/9 rbi
Davis has scored 24 runs. Knocked in 23.
Give me the swings and misses. I'll take seconds of the production please.

[Edwards Kings]

I understand but my only point was to object that people who "appreciate" SABR do not just follow "a" set on numbers to make decisions. Of course, if I am looking for power, I would pick Davis (40+ FB rate over the last three years, 110+ HctX in two of the last three years) over Mauer (average 50%+ GB rate over the last three years). On Davis, I also suspected that the .286 BA in 2013 would not be repeated (66% contact rate, elevated 34% Hit rate). Just like I suspected the 28 HR for Mauer in 2009 was a fluke (though many picked him 1st/2nd round in 2010) because the underlying numbers didn't support a good chance to repeat.

I do not speak for others, but I think the statement that SABR-maticians are slaves to one piece of formulaic crack or another is a misconception.

SABR is just one of the tools I use to be so bad at this.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Understood.
And I get that some number may begat another number or may be an indicator, or maybe not.
That a season of Mauer power or Ellsbury pop may be 'outliers'.
And that,( oh no!) a batter is hitting too high or a pitcher has too low of an E.R.A., so the Regression Monster is on the way to right the town again.
I get all that.
They have an explanation for everything that happens. Until they don't. Then, it's an outlier or the regression monster is coming to town.
Blah Blah.
That's not my beef with them (mostly).

My biggest beef is with how they treat the almighty walk.
It used to be said that a walk is as good as a hit. It's simply not true anymore.
A walk is as good as a hit to a poor or even average hitter, or maybe even a good hitter like Joe Mauer.
When in Little League, you WANT your six-nine hitters to draw a walk. The odds of them doing better with a swing are low.

At the Major League level, small ball is hardly played at all. Hitting a home run, much more easier for a power hitter than bunching a walk and two singles.
Mauer has 24 walks and 34 hits and hitting over .300
Sabrs love that.
BUT....10 RUNS... 10!
It's not Mauer's fault. He is doing what Mauer is supposed to do.
But from a sabr point of view, his production, or lack thereof, should be noted as well as his propensity to reach base.
They have a strand rate for pitchers. Why not for batters?
They have the runners left on base stat for hitters. But not the hitters left on base stat for runners.
If only counting Mauer's walks and hits (he's also reached by way of hbp, errors, etc), Mauer's chances of scoring after a walk or a hit is 17%.
Davis percentage of scoring on walks/hits is over 50% !

The walk is hailed by the sabr community. On base percentage lauded.
Yet, used as a weapon by the defense in giving an intentional walk or pitching around a hitter.
The defense, literally, gives a player first base. Praised by sabrs, at this moment, goes to the hitter .
A fellow not familiar with baseball would be truly befuddled.

[Edwards Kings]

Here's a walk for you...




I get it...the guys in the booth and the talking heads are all about like they just discovered baseball players take a walk...I agree it is annoying and misleading.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Here's a walk for you...




I get it...the guys in the booth and the talking heads are all about like they just discovered baseball players take a walk...I agree it is annoying and misleading.

SEE? Now THAT is a productive walk!

[Bjs2025]

Almost every baseball team has a producer.
And all the while, when not producing, sabrs are singing the praises of Votto's and Harper's on base percentage.
It doesn't help them as producers.
It doesn't help their team in the long run.
And it certainly does not help their fantasy owners.

Then I guess producing is within the eye of the beholder. To me because there are minimal seasons in which any player has gotten on base at a higher clip than he hasn't (Cheating Barry Bonds is the only that comes to mind) anytime he gets on base is valuable since this is a game of failure from the batters perspective. Joey Votto and Bryce Harper both put up good power numbers in addition to getting on base a lot. I will take a walk any day of the week over the chance of what a swing might produce if I know I am getting the walk.

Obviously this guy hasn't played or coached above the tee ball level. If I or my guy is up in the ninth with men on 1st and 2nd I want to step across the plate and hit a ball that is meant to walk me. It is my responsibility to drive in runs not walk to first base and get stranded so the other team can beat us in the bottom of the inning. Yes it's nice to get on base but when the hitter behind you strands 72 runners in one game what is the point I would rather you strikeout 6 times and hit 1 double or Hr to drive in some runs other than walk 7 times and never get past your lead off at first base!

I don't really know what playing or coaching beyond little league has to do with it, I think I am talking to five different Goose Gossages that are under all of these logins. Over the Long Haul the example that you gave above favors the person who got on base seven times. If you compare those players over the long haul you have essentially chosen Adam LaRoche over Bryce Harper, Joey Votto, or Barry Bonds.

[KJ Duke]

Here's a walk for you...

Now I'm interested in on-base pct.